Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 172310

610 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

See 00Z aviation discussion below.


There is scattered convection from the Davis Mountains to the
Permian Basin though lightning has been somewhat infrequent.
Therefore have limited TS to only the NM TAF sites for now and AMD
if needed. MVFR CIGs are forecast to arrive near 12Z and last for
about 6 hours but there is some uncertainty as to whether or not
they will actually materialize, and if so at what level.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014/

The main focus for this forecast continues to be the increasing
potential for flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and portions
of west Texas for the next couple days. Rain chances still look good
through at least Friday as TS Odile continues to provide ample
moisture to the region. PW will remain around 1.7 inches (150% of
normal for September) and moderate to heavy rainfall will remain a
concern. A Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include Lea Co and
now covers all of SE New Mexico, Guadalupe Mountains and Van Horn
and the hwy 54 corridor through 12Z Thursday morning.

TS Odile is currently nearing SE Arizona/SW New Mexico this
afternoon and will continue to trek to the NE in SW flow aloft.
Upper ridge centered over south TX is stronger over our area than
previously anticipated and its keeping main upper level disturbances
from Odile just north of the CWA today. Given the available moisture
this afternoon, it didn`t take much heating for a cu field to
develop across the area with a few light echoes on radar at 20Z
over the Permian Basin. A weak eastward-moving disturbance is now
entering western portions of the region and we are beginning to
see activity developing over the higher terrain. Expecting this
activity to expand into SE NM and the Trans Pecos regions through
the evening hours and possibly overnight. Rain could be moderate
to heavy at times, especially across areas covered by the current
Flash Flood Watch.

Odile will slowly make her way into west/central NM by Thursday
morning, breaking down the UA ridge to the south. This will allow
disturbances to move from W-E across northern portions of the
region, increasing rain chances across SE NM, Permian Basin, upper
Trans Pecos and higher terrain regions through Thursday afternoon.
The remnants of Odile are then forecast to move just NW of the FA
Thursday night/Friday, continuing the heavy rain potential across
mainly the northern half of the CWA through Friday. WPC still
showing higher QPF over Southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos, western
Permian Basin and higher terrain regions through Friday. This seems
more than reasonable so will continue to highlight heavy rain
potential across these areas. Also, the Flash Flood Watch may need
to be expanded and/or extended by later shifts if the forecast holds
strong through tonight.

Below normal high temperatures expected through Friday, particularly
across northern zones where clouds and rain will keep temps cooler.
Overnight low temps will remain well above normal due to the
abundance of moisture expected to persist across the region. Temps
will warm above normal briefly Saturday before a cold front arrives
Sunday, knocking temps back down heading into next week. The front
looks to enter northern zones sometime Sunday morning, moving south
throughout the day. Models generate convection along the front as
it moves through but still unsure of exact timing. Rain chances
could continue into Monday if the front hangs around. Beyond
Monday, NW flow aloft looks to develop which would continue rain
chances as shortwaves move SE across the area. For now, will keep
silent PoPs in the extended.


      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54




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