Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 250441

1141 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2014


See Aviation Discussion below.



VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Area radars show
convection diminishing rapidly, and models suggest an otherwise
quiet night. Buffer soundings break out a cu field by late morning
everywhere except KFST, w/bases 3-5 kft agl.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2014/

Thunderstorms continue to track south into the CWA with the line
pushing into Southeast NM. Adjusted PoP, sky, and weather grids
to account for the line`s progress into the forecast area tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2014/

00Z TAF issuance...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is the potential of
current convection to the north briefly impacting CNM and HOB this
evening. Currently have modest southeast winds areawide with
isolated thunderstorms near the higher terrain regions. A line of
thunderstorms oriented W-E from KDR1 to KLBB currently racing
southward this evening. If it holds together and keeps its current
speed, best guess is that thunderstorms will affect KHOB around
25/01Z then KCNM by 25/02Z. This activity may be capable of briefly
producing gusty winds, hail, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.
At this time, not sure if it will hold together long enough to reach
the other terminals but will continue to monitor and amend if/when
needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all
sites through the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2014/


Currently, there are showers and thunderstorms beginning to develop
across the area. There is still flooding along the Pecos River and
in Eddy County as well so have continued the Areal Flood Warnings in
these locations. Any additional rain in these areas will worsen
conditions as the ground is already saturated. The region is under
generally north to northwest flow aloft with an upper ridge centered
across the four corners region and a trough over the Upper Midwest
today.  This upper flow pattern is allowing for shortwaves to move
over the area with much of the upper lift being over the eastern and
northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico.  A slight chance of
thunderstorms is across the area for today as a result.  Not much is
expected to change on Thursday as enhanced lift remains over the
area so a slight chance of rain will continue.

On Friday, a remnant upper low from the upper trough that was over
the Upper Midwest will be over the region.  Upper lift will be
enhanced over areas generally south and west of the Pecos River, so
there is a slight chance of thunderstorms for this area on Friday.
The upper lift will start to decrease over the area on Saturday so
chances of precipitation will decrease with best chances being
across the higher terrain.  An upper trough will move over the
western conus on Saturday with the eastern two thirds of the conus
under upper ridging aloft.  This will continue to result in drying
conditions for the area.  Early next week, the models move the
western conus upper trough eastward while maintaining the upper
low/trough near the Mississippi River.  The models differ on the
position of these upper troughs going into the early to middle of
next week but generally expect the two troughs to come closer
together and perhaps begin to merge.  The GFS is producing
precipitation during the early to middle part of next week across
the area as a result of the approaching trough but the ECMWF is
keeping conditions dry.  Expect temperatures through the forecast
period to remain within 5 degrees of normal since no cold fronts are






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