Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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736
FXUS64 KMAF 231104
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
604 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
An outflow boundary from storms in northeastern NM has moved
through CNM and HOB and will arrive at MAF 12-13Z. The wind shift
will be weak and brief at MAF and has not been included in the TAF
though aviation interests should be aware of a wind shift from the
northeast for about an hour of about 5kts. Otherwise southeast
winds will prevail this TAF period along with VFR conditions.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Not much change to the previous forecast with fairly uneventful
weather expect the next few days. Upper ridging will remain broadly
draped over the southern ConUS today and should be strong enough
to keep mountain convection at bay. High temperatures will be
slightly cooler (by a degree or two) today with afternoon readings
ranging from the mid 90s across the Permian Basin, Lower Trans
Pecos and higher terrain to 100-105 across southeast New Mexico,
Upper Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley. The upper ridge will
begin to weaken overhead on Friday as an easterly wave/inverted
trough edges northward toward SW TX. Lower heights along with
persistent SE/upslope flow and mid level moisture in place along
the higher terrain may be enough to generate some
afternoon/evening convection across the mountain regions.

Saturday looks to be very similar to Friday with very little
northward progression of the inverted trough expected. Only thing
worth mentioning is better chances for mountain convection given
slightly lower heights, persistent upslope flow and increased
moisture. Thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday and Monday
generally across the higher terrain and southern zones as the
inverted trough moves into SW TX. Temperatures will be cooler during
this time given increased rain chances and cloud cover. Expect highs
in the low to mid 90s most areas. Meanwhile, the upper ridge will
strengthen over the Four Corners region with dry and warming
conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  69  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                      103  69 100  69 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                        100  72  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                 100  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 98  69  94  69 /  10  10  20  20
Hobbs                          98  66  95  67 /  10   0   0  10
Marfa                          96  63  93  63 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           99  70  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         99  70  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          102  71  98  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10

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