Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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396
FXUS64 KMAF 190559
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1259 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR conditions currently being observed across the area will
continue for the next 6-12 hours but should remain above airport
minimums. CIG/VIS will increase 15-18Z and should be VFR by 00Z
at most TAF sites. Scattered showers will continue though TS is
diminishing and will not be mentioned in any TAFs.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 215 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Looks like unsettled weather will continue especially for west
Texas through Thursday as an upper level low pressure system
slowly makes its way eastward toward the region from the southern
Rockies. Ahead of this system diffluence and significant and
persistent large scale lift associated with the upper jet and
upper low is expected across the region. This upper low will have
plentiful and persistent moisture to work with tonight and early
Thursday due to a stalled 850 millibar low and stationary front
along the Big Bend. Have issued a Flash Flood Watch for the
eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos Region and portions of
the Big Bend tonight through early Thursday afternoon. These areas
have been hit hardest by earlier rainfall and guidance is
indicating that these areas will be most vulnerable to additional
heavy rainfall of 2 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts.
Further west across the remainder of west Texas and southeast New
Mexico, rainfall is expected to be lighter but there will still
be a chance to likely pops for showers and thunderstorms overnight
and Thursday morning.

The upper low will exit the forecast area late Thursday and be
replaced by southwesterly flow aloft associated with the next
couple of Pacific systems this weekend and into the middle of
next week. A persistent dryline is expected to form in this flow
with thunderstorms possible ahead of the dryline across mainly
portions of the Permian Basin each afternoon and evening through
the weekend and into next week. Temperatures will warm to near
normal values by Friday through the rest of the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     55  82  61  85 /  10  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       53  88  59  90 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                         61  85  66  88 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  57  87  64  89 /  10   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 54  81  58  82 /  10   0   0  10
Hobbs                          52  82  58  86 /  10   0   0  20
Marfa                          46  81  52  85 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           56  85  63  87 /  10  10   0  10
Odessa                         57  85  63  87 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           54  88  62  90 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for Big Bend Area-Crane-
     Glasscock-Pecos-Reagan-Terrell-Upton.

&&

$$

99/99/10

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