Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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707
FXUS64 KMAF 052310
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Sat imagery shows a widespread cu field across the region, w/area
radars showing diurnal convection generally west of the Pecos.
This activity appears to have peaked, and is expected to diminish
over the next few hours. On the other side of the Pecos, a 40+kt
LLJ is forecast to keep winds up most of the overnight hours. As
for stratus development, low-lvl RH fields suggest only KMAF is a
candidate, according to which model one considers. Because of
uncertainty, we`ll keep things VFR for now. Low-based cu
redevelopment looks likely early, w/widespread afternoon
convection likely.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Sub tropical ridge will remain over the area through the week.  The
center of the upper high was right over the area this morning and
will drift down to Mexico and wander around there for the next
couple of days.  A closed low will move ashore the CA coast by the
middle of the week but is not expected to displace the ridge.

Did have low clouds over parts of the area this morning that helped
o keep overnight temps elevated.  May see some stratus try to creep
into the east again tomorrow morning and expecting a continuation of
warmer lows.  High temperatures will remain below normal through
most of the week then begin increasing toward next weekend.  Still
looking at a front drifting down into the area early Tuesday... but
there is some disagreement as to how far south into the CWA it will
make it.  It may be determined by whether or not rain cooled air
pushes it southward.

Most of the storms yesterday were confined to over and adjacent to
the the higher elevations.  Scattered showers and storms have
already developed west of a Carlsbad to Fort Stockton line... these
should continue into the evening.  Storms chances begin to increase
Monday with the best chance being Monday night and Tuesday.  Expect
showers and storms to develop along the front and may also receive
some upper support as a shortwave comes down over the top of the
ridge.  Locally heavy rain possible.  Rain chances continue into
Wednesday then slowly decrease through the extended mainly being
confined to the higher elevations but may receive some support from
approaching West Coast low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  74  93  74  85  /  10  20  40  60
CARLSBAD NM                    71  95  72  87  /  30  40  50  30
DRYDEN TX                      74  95  74  93  /  30  40  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX               73  93  72  90  /  30  50  50  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  86  67  75  /  50  30  40  30
HOBBS NM                       68  90  67  81  /  10  40  60  40
MARFA TX                       66  85  64  85  /  50  50  50  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        73  92  73  86  /  10  30  50  60
ODESSA TX                      74  92  73  86  /  10  30  50  50
WINK TX                        73  97  73  90  /  20  40  50  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44

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