Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Previous Version | Current Version | All | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On

Skip product version selection by date and time.   
272
FXUS64 KMAF 181714
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS is lifting across the area and all sites should be
VFR within the next couple of hours. Afterward VFR conditions will
remain through most of the period, though there is uncertainty
around 12Z when models are showing an increase in low level
moisture which may result in a return of MVFR CIGs. However will
not place in the TAFs at this time due to increasing mid and upper
level clouds and showers/T-storms moving in from the west late in
the TAF period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR cigs have moved into TAF locations overnight. These cigs
will slowly lift during the morning hours before finally
dissipating by early afternoon. Increasing mid and high level
cloudiness is anticipated across the area through the period.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible..mainly west of the Pecos
River after 19/0000z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures today will be similar to those from yesterday as
surface winds become southeasterly by this afternoon.  These winds
will bring an increase in low-level moisture.  An upper level trough
over southern California is approaching the region with shortwaves
moving over the area.  This increase in moisture and lift will
contribute to showers developing across the eastern Permian Basin
and Lower Trans Pecos this morning and thunderstorms developing
across the higher terrain later this afternoon.  Showers and
thunderstorms will spread eastward across the CWA on Saturday as the
upper trough gets closer.  The upper level trough will approach and
pass over the Southern Plains on Sunday with rain lingering across
the area.  There will be areas with CAPE values of over 1000 J/kg
and 0-6 km bulk shear will be near 50 kts so a strong to severe
storm cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon across the Lower Trans
Pecos and eastern Permian Basin.

On Monday, the upper level trough will move to the east of the
region with the precipitation moving out of the area as well.  A
cold front will move into the area on Monday on the backside of the
upper trough but this front will not have much impact on
temperatures as highs warm to above average.  Temperatures will
gradually increase through the middle of next week with upper level
ridging developing over the region.  Another upper trough is
expected to approach the Central/Northern Plains with a dryline
possibly developing across the CWA on Wednesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.