Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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773
FXUS64 KMAF 011713
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
At 17Z a dissipating patch of light rain remained near CNM.
Another larger area of rain was located just east of FST, moving
east. A decreasing trend in precipitation will continue into
early afternoon with area terminals starting out VFR with no
significant precipitation. During the afternoon, heating will
allow mainly isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms
mainly west of a line from HOB to FST, particularly in the
mountain areas. Area terminals will remain VFR through the
afternoon.

Overnight and into Saturday morning, areas of rain and
thunderstorms are expected to develop mainly in the mountain
areas,moving into the adjacent plains, potentially affecting CNM
and PEQ overnight. Will include PROB30 at these terminals this
evening with chances too low to include in forecasts during
the overnight. Conditions are expected to remain VFR across
southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas terminals through 18Z
Saturday with winds generally northeast to east at less than 12
knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

UPDATE...
Introducing slight to chance rain probabilities into the Permian
Basin. Temperatures lowered across much of region.

DISCUSSION...
This morning, a large area of rain remained over the higher terrain
of southwest Texas. An area of showers and thunderstorms also
began developing eastward into the southern Permian Basin in
an area of weak divergence aloft and elevated instability. These
showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop
over the southern Permian Basin and upper trans-Pecos through
the morning hours. Cloud cover along with the additional rainfall
across the area are expected to keep temperatures slightly cooler
than previously forecast. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
mainly over the mountains and trans-Pecos.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

AVIATION...

Cool, easterly upslope sfc flow will prevail next 24 hours. Buffer
soundings develop a widespread cu field most locations by late
morning/early afternoon, w/bases 4-8 kft agl. Best chances of
convection will be west, where upslope effects will be pronounced.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough over the eastern half of the conus.  A
surface high is near the area with showers and thunderstorms
developing and moving into the far western CWA.  High temperatures
will be slightly warmer today than yesterday.  Showers and
thunderstorms are expected today for mainly areas west and south of
the Pecos River.  Heavy rain will be possible with this convection
as the rain will be slow moving.  The precipitation will continue
across the area into the day Saturday with temperatures similar to
the previous day.  By Sunday, an upper ridge will become more
centered over the region so showers and thunderstorms will decrease
in areal coverage and will mainly form across the higher terrain.
Temperatures on Sunday will warm up slightly as skies begin clear
over the area.  The upper ridge will be even more prevalent over the
region on Monday leading to fewer showers and thunderstorms and
slightly warmer temperatures.  Temperatures on Monday are still
expected to be below normal.  Temperatures will warm to around
normal values on Tuesday with chances for precipitation decreasing.
Similar conditions are expected through the end of next week with
coverage of precipitation increasing across the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05

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