Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 151712

1212 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

18Z TAF issuance...
Flight conditions finally improving early this afternoon as cigs
begin to scatter and lift. Currently have all but FST and PEQ
reporting MVFR but expect to see VFR conditions at all terminals by
19-20Z. Could see some scattered convection later this afternoon
near the mountain regions but confidence is too low attm to mention
at CNM or PEQ. Thunderstorms chances will increase across the region
Tuesday morning but will hold off on adding mention in the TAFs
until we get a better handle on timing and location. Otherwise, MVFR
cigs look to return early Tuesday morning at CNM, HOB and MAF. Cigs
could be lower but opted to stay on the conservative side and make
any adjustments needed in later issuances.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014/

It has been amazing lately how we have gone from very dry to
having showers on the radar every day. Much of this can be
credited to Hurricane Odile currently making landfall in the Baja
of Mexico. This storm will have to be very closely monitored
over the next several days as tropical systems have been known to
give our area it`s worst flooding. NHC forecast tracks have been
slowly shifting this system further east and now have it taking a
sharp right Wednesday towards Arizona and New Mexico. High
pressure along the northern Gulf Coast will continue to send
moisture north into the CWA, and expect disturbances originating
from the storm to increasingly spin north as the tight circulation
weakens over land. The first will arrive Tuesday and remain into
Wednesday bringing scattered convection. PWATs are currently well
above normal at 1.5" and will increase to near 1.8" by Wednesday
which is over 2 standard deviations above normal. This combined
with heavy rains that have fallen recently means flash flooding
will be a threat this week along with rises along the Rio Grande.
Will not issue a Flash Flood Watch at this time due to
uncertainties in the timing of Odile, but one may be needed later
if confidence increases. Given everything stated above, went more
aggressive with rain chances this forecast and increased or
introduced PoPs just about every day this week.

The tropical moisture has not only brought rain, but obviously
there has been abundant cloud cover as well and this has limited
afternoon heating and led poor model guidance the past couple of
days. This is tough to forecast because even a brief break in
cloud cover can allow for temperatures to quickly spike upward and
forecasting temperatures much lower than guidance requires high
confidence of dense overcast clouds all day. MAF did not even hit
70 degrees on Sunday but some of that was due to us still
recovering from the recent frontal passage. Today will be warmer
due to continued warm air advection from the south but have
undercut MAV guidance several degrees both today and tomorrow.
The remainder of the forecast is close to MEX guidance though the
trend was to continue to undercut slightly due to clouds/rain/
soil moisture effects on limiting heating.







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