Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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712
FXUS64 KMAF 211131
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
631 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

MVFR/IFR cigs affecting all but PEQ and FST early this morning.
Expect stratus to scatter/lift by mid morning with VFR conditions
prevailing at all area terminals thereafter. Thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon and evening however due to uncertainty
regarding exact timing/location of convective initiation, will not
include mention in the TAFs. Otherwise, gusty SE winds will persist
through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Have an upper level ridge over the area with a closed low over the
OR/CA region.  This low will slowly wobble NE but additional lobes
will rotate down behind it.  This will put the region into SW flow
aloft and may bring shortwaves into the area.

After a couple cool days warm temperatures have returned with
readings running above normal and into the 90s.  With no cold fronts
expected for the coming week temperatures should be fairly
consistent day to day.  Highs for most of next weeks look above
normal and in the 90s with overnight lows staying on the warm side.

This morning low level moisture high with dewpts in the 60s for most
of the area.  Low clouds have spread up the Trans Pecos region and
across much of the Permian Basin as a SE flow keeps dewpts elevated.
A surface trough will help sharpen up a dryline today and Sunday
with possible storms along this feature.  CAPE looks fairly high but
shear not great.  Currently have a slight risk today mostly north of
the area... with a slight risk Sunday farther back to the west now
reaching the TX/NM border.  Day3 slight risk fairly similar for
eastern CWA.  Some of these storms could become severe with large
hail and damaging wind the main concerns.  Rain chances the rest of
the week do not look great but carrying some low pops in the
extended mainly for the eastern CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  68  87  67 /  10  30  40  30
Carlsbad                       94  59  92  57 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         90  72  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  93  69  92  66 /  20  20  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 84  59  82  56 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          88  64  87  58 /  20  20  10  10
Marfa                          87  53  88  49 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           90  69  89  68 /  20  30  30  20
Odessa                         91  68  91  66 /  20  30  20  20
Wink                           93  67  92  61 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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