Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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097
FXUS64 KMAF 010533
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1233 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Currently all TAF sites and surrounding observing stations are
VFR. Model guidance is showing MVFR/IFR CIGs will move into the
area 08-12Z so have kept this in the TAF though confidence is
shaky on the timing and height of this cloud deck. VFR conditions
should redevelop this afternoon with scattered showers in the
area.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Yet another round of rain and embedded thunderstorms is expected
overnight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico as an upper
level shear axis continues to weaken and move towards southeast
New Mexico. The 12z Wednesday sounding from Midland indicated
copious amounts of moisture remain in the region with a near
record precipitable water value of 1.61 inches. The potential for
the heaviest rainfall will be across southeast New Mexico tonight,
closest to the shear axis. Will issue a Flash Flood Watch tonight
through mid Thursday morning for southeast New Mexico as soils are
already saturated from previous rainfall with more moderate to
potentially locally heavy rainfall expected overnight.

The shear axis will continue to weaken and move southeast into
the Permian Basin of west Texas on Thursday and Thursday night.
More showers and thunderstorms are expected areawide and more
locally heavy rainfall could be possible with precitable water
values remaining near record levels.

Precipitation intensity and areal coverage should be on the
decrease on Friday with the shear axis dissipated. However the
atmosphere will remain very moist and upslope flow and diurnal
heating should break the cap and produce random scattered showers
and thunderstorms across the region. The activity should diminish
significantly after sunset with loss of heating and lack of large
scale forcing.

A regime change is expected to take place this weekend into early
next week as stronger southwesterly flow aloft develops ahead of
a slow moving western U.S. upper trough. A surface lee trough will
form along the west Texas/southeast New Mexico border and become a
persistent feature. This should help to boost temperatures to
more normal values. The best chance of thunderstorms will remain
across western sections closer to the surface trough from the
southeast New Mexico plains south to the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  84  70  90 /  40  40  20  20
Carlsbad                       66  86  66  88 /  50  30  10  20
Dryden                         73  92  71  91 /  10  30  10  10
Fort Stockton                  66  85  68  90 /  20  30  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 60  80  63  82 /  40  30  20  20
Hobbs                          63  79  65  86 /  50  40  10  20
Marfa                          60  80  61  83 /  20  30  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           67  85  69  90 /  40  30  10  10
Odessa                         68  84  69  89 /  40  30  10  10
Wink                           68  88  68  91 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Flash Flood Watch until 9 AM MDT Thursday for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10

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