Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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676
FXUS64 KMAF 181011
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
510 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures today will be similar to those from yesterday as
surface winds become southeasterly by this afternoon.  These winds
will bring an increase in low-level moisture.  An upper level trough
over southern California is approaching the region with shortwaves
moving over the area.  This increase in moisture and lift will
contribute to showers developing across the eastern Permian Basin
and Lower Trans Pecos this morning and thunderstorms developing
across the higher terrain later this afternoon.  Showers and
thunderstorms will spread eastward across the CWA on Saturday as the
upper trough gets closer.  The upper level trough will approach and
pass over the Southern Plains on Sunday with rain lingering across
the area.  There will be areas with CAPE values of over 1000 J/kg
and 0-6 km bulk shear will be near 50 kts so a strong to severe
storm cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon across the Lower Trans
Pecos and eastern Permian Basin.

On Monday, the upper level trough will move to the east of the
region with the precipitation moving out of the area as well.  A
cold front will move into the area on Monday on the backside of the
upper trough but this front will not have much impact on
temperatures as highs warm to above average.  Temperatures will
gradually increase through the middle of next week with upper level
ridging developing over the region.  Another upper trough is
expected to approach the Central/Northern Plains with a dryline
possibly developing across the CWA on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 74  58  76  58  /  10  10  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              73  58  77  60  /  20  10  30  40
CARLSBAD NM                75  56  77  53  /  10  30  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  79  60  78  62  /  20  10  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           77  58  78  60  /  10  20  40  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          72  52  71  53  /  20  40  50  20
HOBBS NM                   74  54  74  53  /   0  20  40  30
MARFA TX                   74  49  73  48  /  20  40  50  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  58  77  59  /  10  10  30  30
ODESSA TX                  75  58  77  59  /  10  10  30  30
WINK TX                    79  57  80  58  /  10  20  40  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03/80

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