Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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962
FXUS64 KMAF 041053
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
553 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms are expected to form over the higher terrain today,
but should remain south and west of all area terminals.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Increasing rain chances early next week with temperatures staying
mostly below normal for early July.

Morning analysis shows an upper ridge beginning to weaken to our
west and a large scale trough stretched over the eastern U.S. At the
surface, moist flow continues off the Gulf and will eventually help
give us a good chance for rain once a cold front arrives. More on
that later. For the second night in a row we are watching a dying
thunderstorm complex move south out of the TX Panhandle. A few of
these storms may make it into northern Lea Co or the northern
Permian Basin later this morning. More likely to happen, an
outflow boundary from these storms will settle across the
northwestern CWA. This could help spark a few showers and storms
later this afternoon. The better chance for rain today though will
be over the higher terrain associated with a developing theta-e
axis. This axis expands slightly east on Sunday with a better
chance of rain spreading into the Upper Trans Pecos and SE NM.

The upper ridge sinks south into northern Mexico Monday while a cold
front enters the TX Panhandle. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the front Monday evening with one or
more complexes moving south across the area overnight into Tuesday
morning. The frontal boundary may linger across the region Tuesday
into Wednesday so will keep a good chance for rain in the
forecast. PWATs will climb over 1.5" and storm motions look fairly
slow so heavy rainfall will be a good possibility. Models show the
upper ridge strengthening over the region by the end of the week.
If we see widespread rainfall this week, the ridge may not build
as strong as indicated.

Temperatures have had a hard time warming too much due to all the
green vegetation across area. Will continue the trend of forecasting
near or below guidance this weekend. Monday through Wednesday will
be tricky due to the possibility of cloudcover and rain. May need to
lower temps even more if we see widespread rainfall. Temperatures
will warm back to near normal by the end of the week as the ridge
builds and the atmosphere begins to dry out.

Have a great holiday and Happy 4th of July from everyone here at
the NWS Midland/Odessa!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  92  73  92  74  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    92  70  98  72  /  10  10  20  30
DRYDEN TX                      92  73  92  73  /  10  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX               90  70  92  71  /  10  10  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX              84  67  88  68  /  20  30  40  40
HOBBS NM                       89  67  92  68  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       87  64  88  66  /  40  30  50  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        91  71  93  72  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      90  71  92  73  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                        93  72  97  73  /  10  10  20  20


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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