Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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926
FXUS64 KMAF 230920
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
420 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Clearing skies overnight combined with light winds and increased
boundary layer moisture have resulted in radiation fog development
over portions of southeastern New Mexico as well as the Trans Pecos
and western Permian Basin. The fog is currently expected to remain
patchy this morning, and should burn off quickly after sunrise.

A gradual warming trend will begin today and last through the
weekend as upper ridging develops over the region in the wake of the
departing upper level trough. By Sunday and into Monday,
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with low
90s possible in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.

Models are in good agreement regarding trends through the weekend,
with the aforementioned 500mb ridge axis overhead by Saturday, and
beginning to flatten out on Sunday as height falls overspread the
region ahead of a deepening trough to the west. Model solutions then
diverge Monday night regarding the advancing trough and accompanying
cold front progged to move through the area. The GFS is the more
conservative solution at this time, maintaining a shallower trough,
and thus a weaker, dry FROPA by early Tuesday morning.  The ECMWF
solution indicates a slower FROPA and light QPF over far northern
portions of the CWFA, as well as a much deeper trough and developing
closed low. If the ECMWF solution were to verify, ridging would
quickly redevelop in the wake of the trough/closed low by midweek,
whereas the GFS maintains light southeasterly flow and perhaps some
precipitation by the end of the period.  Given these uncertainties,
have not made many changes from the going forecast, and will wait to
see better model agreement before including any precipitation
mention in an otherwise dry forecast through the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  57  83  56  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              80  59  83  58  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                79  51  84  53  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  79  60  84  60  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  60  85  60  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  57  77  59  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  52  84  52  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   76  47  79  46  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  56  83  57  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  58  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    85  57  89  56  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/84

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