Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 171125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
625 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

12Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is the timing of a
cold front along with its associated low clouds and TSRA. Continue
to see scattered showers with a few thunderstorms moving east across
the area this morning but models indicate a lull in activity later
this morning through early afternoon. Thunderstorms possible this
afternoon but best chances will be east of terminals.

The front has moved through SE NM and the northern Permian Basin
with low cigs filing in behind it. Models indicate the front slowing
its progression this morning so think MVFR cigs may briefly affect
HOB around 12-14Z. The front will finally push through later this
afternoon with gusty NE winds persisting through tonight. Flight
conditions look to deteriorate behind the front as low cigs develop
and thunderstorm chances increase later this evening. Still some
uncertainty about when and where convection will develop so kept
mention of TSRA out of the TAF for now. Will continue to refine the
forecast in subsequent TAF issuances.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 448 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016/

A dryline retreated west overnight allowing scattered showers to
develop across the area this morning. Models are showing these
showers will diminish later this morning with the best rain
chances in the eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos where
strong instability will combine with the surface convergence of an
advancing cold front.

Tonight isentropic lift behind the front will increase with the
approach of an upper low helping to increase rain coverage. The
lack of a good focus for surface convergence means convection will
be scattered and there will be some locations that will miss out
on the rain. Rain chances peak Wednesday night before the low
moves east of the area. Unfortunately the low will be weakening,
positively tilted, and moving northeast as it crosses the Rockies
which is far from optimal for giving us rainfall; therefore kept
PoPs below guidance through the next several days. We dry out late
in the week but could see a return of scattered convection over
the weekend as another low drops in the western states.

Surface observations show a cold front is currently moving into
the Permian Basin, but it`s progress will slow during the day not
moving south of I-20 until this afternoon. This will give areas
ahead of the front time to heat up this afternoon and so went
above forecast guidance for highs today. Tomorrow will be cooler
behind the front and coupled with increased clouds will keep
highs 15 to 20 degrees lower. MAV guidance should be too low
unless rainfall is more than expected so generally split the
difference between it and the MET for highs Wednesday. Thursday
begins a gradual warm up that will last into the weekend.



Big Spring                     87  55  65  56 /  30  50  50  60
Carlsbad                       77  55  67  55 /  20  40  50  60
Dryden                         93  64  79  63 /  20  40  50  50
Fort Stockton                  87  59  72  59 /  10  40  50  60
Guadalupe Pass                 71  49  61  50 /  10  40  50  50
Hobbs                          82  52  64  53 /  20  40  50  60
Marfa                          80  54  74  52 /  10  30  30  50
Midland Intl Airport           86  55  66  56 /  20  50  50  60
Odessa                         87  55  66  56 /  20  50  50  60
Wink                           86  57  70  58 /  10  40  50  60


.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...High Wind Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains.



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