Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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489
FXUS64 KMAF 221656
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1156 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms
are expected to remain west of the terminals through the forecast
period. Winds this afternoon with be east to southeast at
10 to 15 mph and gusty. Winds will diminish to less than 10 mph
tonight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

UPDATE...As of 8:30 AM CDT Tuesday...have updated the
grids/forecast for the morning to remove most of the POPS. KMAF
radar as well as regional radars are indc a rapid decrease of
convection this morning. Will take a look at the aftn/evening
forecast after the models come in. One item of note is that the
12Z MAF sounding showed a significant decrease in mid level
moisture which could lead to less convective initiation this
afternoon.

Strobin

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Diminishing convection just
north of the CWA has sent an outflow boundary south into southeast
NM, briefly shifting winds to a northerly direction this morning
at HOB and CNM. Could see isolated to scattered thunderstorms once
again this afternoon and evening mainly across southeast New Mexico,
possibly affecting CNM and HOB. Confidence is too low at this time
to mention in the current forecast. Otherwise, generally southeast
winds remain in place through Wednesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather across
southeast New Mexico and West Texas through this week, and next
weekend too.  Subtropical moisture swirling beneath the upper ridge
is allowing for convection over the higher terrain during max
heating, as has occurred the past few days.  We`ve also seen
convection last well into the night under the ua ridge, and this
morning is no different with thunderstorms dropping slowly southward
into portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.  Expect to see a
gradual decrease in intensity/coverage with these storms through
22/12Z, as is typical this time of year with a warm, moist and
unstable airmass encompassing the forecast area.  Temperatures will
warm above normal again this afternoon with thunderstorms expected
to develop over the heated higher terrain, especially since an
h85-5 theta e axis will linger over southeast New Mexico, south
through the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and into the Big Bend
region.  It appears coverage will not be as great as yesterday, but
there could still be a few strong storms capable of locally heavy
rainfall, winds over 50 mph and frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes.  Convection will persist into the night, with a repeat
performance over southeast New Mexico possible, perhaps a little
further west.

Slightly drier low level air will mix down over the region Wednesday
as the mentioned subtropical mid and upper level moisture moves
westward.  This should extinguish rain chances, even over the higher
terrain, Wednesday through at least Friday, although there are some
indications subtropical moisture may increase again by Friday or
Saturday.  Of more pressing concern will be the heat as the upper
ridge doesn`t really budge from it`s current location over the
southern U.S. Plains.  The Heat Advisory currently in effect for
the Rio Grande River from Candelaria, downstream to the Lower Trans
Pecos will remain in effect until Wednesday morning.  However, the
possibility exists for the advisory to be extended along the Rio
Grande, if not expanded over the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday through
Friday.  High temperatures above 105 degrees look to be inevitable
in these areas, but since low temperatures may not stay above 75
degrees will defer extension of the Heat Advisory at this time.

The upper ridge will stay centered over the southern U.S. Plains
into next weekend, but will become more east/west oriented as a
series of shortwave troughs traversing the northern Conus suppress
it somewhat southward.  Thereafter, an upper trough is expected to
deepen over the eastern Conus through early next week.  The upper
ridge will retrograde and amplify over the western Conus, although
it will still maintain a good deal of influence over the region.
At this time it appears we may see temperatures closer to normal by
early next week.  If we`re really lucky, we could see a cold front
and an appreciable increase in rain chances early to mid next week.
Will not go out on a limb right now, especially considering how
treacherously wrong progs can be 5 to 7 days in advance during the
summer months.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  75  99  75  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             100  77 101  78  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               103  75 102  73  /  30  30  10   0
DRYDEN TX                 101  80 103  80  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  76  99  74  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          92  70  92  70  /  20  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   96  72  98  72  /  20  20  10   0
MARFA TX                   91  65  91  66  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  76 100  75  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  99  77 100  76  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                   103  78 101  75  /  10  10  10   0

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

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