Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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300
FXUS64 KMAF 191729
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1229 PM CDT Tue May 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Satellite imagery and sfc obs show all terminals scattering out as
cigs erode, w/VFR conditions expected everywhere by 21Z. Latest
buffer soundings show a return of LIFR stratus at KMAF overnight,
and perhaps KHOB, but all other terminals should remain VFR.
Convection this afternoon looks to stay east of terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT Tue May 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms over southeastern New Mexico will
continue to move ENE through the morning, and could impact KHOB
through the first hour of the forecast period. A second line of
storms extending southward from roughly KBWS to KMAF could affect
KMAF, especially if there`s any additional development behind the
line or on the southern flank, thus have included a TEMPO from
12-14Z this morning for MVFR cigs and TSRA affecting the terminal.
Otherwise, transient MVFR/IFR ceilings could affect area
terminals this morning, though are expected to improve to VFR by
around 15Z. VFR conditions will then prevail, with the caveat being
the development of afternoon SHRA/TSRA, which is most likely to
affect KINK, KMAF, and KFST. However, uncertainties regarding the
timing of afternoon storms precludes mention in the current TAF,
though heavy rain, hail, and strong winds are expected with storms
that do develop.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Tue May 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper pattern remains active with a train of upper lows continuing
this week.  This morning an upper low was centered over the
Intermountain West with SW flow reaching across the area.  The first
low will move off to the east as another trough develops along the
CA coast.  This will develop into a closed low before rolling east
later in the week.  The result of this will be a continuation of the
wet pattern for the area.

Evening storms with severe wx and flash flooding lingered into the
early morning hours before moving east.  West TX Mesonet at
Coyanosa reported 4.15 inches and St.Lawrence reported 1.54
inches... most of that falling in 1 hr.  An Areal Flood Warning will
remain in effect all night due to the heavy rain near Coyanosa that
resulted in several feet of water over the road.  A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect through midday generally along and north of
the Pecos River.  Surface dewpts into the 60s... even as far west as
CNM... and model soundings show PW over 1.3 inches indicate the
potential for heavy rain will continue through the morning.  Most of
the additional rain today should be northeast of Pecos county but
since flooding is ongoing will add them to the FFA.

More storms expected today and have the potential for flash flooding
and severe wx.  The best chance of rain today will be over the
NE Permian Basin and carrying likely pops.  Most models seem to be in
some agreement as to developing additional storms to the west of the
area overnight and moving it across the region early in the day.  As
of 08z have begun to get some new development across Eddy and Chavez
counties.  Flooding will be the main concern through midday with
severe wx in the afternoon.  Looking at the development of a dryline
this afternoon which could become the focus for storm development.
There is a slight risk of severe wx today mainly for the eastern
half of the area.  Supercells will be possible during the afternoon
with hail... wind... and a few tornadoes.  Models develop pops and
qpf like crazy over the next several days... especially Thursday and
Friday.

Temps will be in the 80s Tuesday and Wednesday before a cold front
moves through late Wednesday. E/NE wind will keep it cooler on
Thursday with highs in the 70s.  Warmer temps return to the 80s on
Thursday and continue that way into early next week.  Lows in the
50s and 60s.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until Noon MDT today FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...
     Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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