Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 210026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
726 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015



VFR will continue through the period. Evening storms should stay
west of all TAF sites. Could see a little morning stratus at MAF
and HOB.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015/


Low clouds over the region this morning were quick to erode, with
temperatures this afternoon rising into the 80s across the area, a
welcome fall-like break after our string of above normal
temperatures through the first half of August. Despite the cooler
temperatures and somewhat drier air mass, isolated storms have
already begun to develop over the Davis Mountains, with additional
storms possible through this evening, mainly across the higher
elevations of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Storms will be
capable of producing brief downpours, gusty wind, and frequent
lightning, and should gradually weaken tonight. Overnight lows
will be several degrees warmer than last night across the area,
with near normal temperatures from the mid 60s to lower 70s

The break from the late summer heat is going to be short lived as
the upper ridge begins to strengthen to the west, resulting in a
quick rebound to above normal temperatures on Friday with highs in
the middle to upper 90s across much of the area, with low 100s
possible in the Pecos and Rio Grande River Valleys. Friday afternoon
and into Friday night, a shortwave will dig south toward the region,
and though much of the energy associated with this feature will
remain north of the area over the Panhandle and into the Central
Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible in the
northwest flow regime, first mainly over the higher terrain to the
west during the afternoon and then gradually expanding eastward
through the evening. Saturday will be similar to Friday, with highs
in the mid 90s to lower 100s across the area, as well as the
potential for thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening. As an
upper trough intensifies over the Northern Plains and moves east
toward the Great Lakes Region on Sunday, a trailing cold front is
progged to sink south into the area, serving as a focus for
increased thunderstorm chances Sunday through Sunday night. However,
this front will be much weaker than the front that gave us the
cooler temperatures today, and is only expected to drop temperatures
Sunday and Monday a few degrees, back to near normal values. From
Tuesday onward through the extended, the upper ridge looks to
strengthen over the region, resulting in low precipitation chances
as well as a return to above normal temperatures.




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