Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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788
FXUS64 KMAF 220600
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
100 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Main concern this forecast period are low ceilings/visibility
that will overspread the area late tonight. MVFR stratus has
already started to develop over portions of the area, and is
expected to expand, affecting area terminals by around 08Z, with
low-end MVFR/IFR conditions possible around daybreak. Improvement
will be slow, with a return to VFR conditions not expected until
around 17-20Z, with showers/thunderstorms again possible Monday
afternoon, though have not mentioned TSRA at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 157 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Heights are expected to rise over Texas Monday as an ua trough over
the Midwest ejects northeastward into Canada, which will allow the
upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS to expand westward.  Progs
indicate the upper ridge will not become established over the
central U.S. through next week though, initially due to a weak
southern stream ua trough expanding across the southwestern ConUS,
and thereafter the same ua trough being reinvigorated by a stronger
northern stream ua trough along the U.S./Canadian border.  This will
put southeast New Mexico and west Texas under weak southwesterly
flow aloft today, and a bit stronger southwesterly flow aloft Monday
through Thursday as the trough deepens/expands south through New
Mexico.  The net result will be a continuation of rain chances, and
near to below normal temperatures for the next six or seven days.

The above mentioned ua trough over the desert southwest will provide
a chance of showers and storms over southeast New Mexico this
afternoon and tonight, with additional showers and storms possible
over west Texas due to upslope flow and the heating of the higher
terrain.  Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall as PWats
will be around 1.25 inches.  PWats will be on the increase tonight
and Monday as moisture, and a couple of mid level disturbances, move
north over the region on the westward expanding fringe of the upper
ridge.  Water Vapor satellite imagery indicates the first such
perturbation to be over eastern Coahuila this afternoon.  Since
models build the upper ridge westward to varying degrees, and lift
this perturbation northward at different speeds, will increase PoPs
late tonight and Monday over the Lower Trans Pecos and Permian
Basin.  Do not think enough rainfall will occur for widespread flash
flooding, so will mention heavy rainfall and localized flash
flooding in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and graphics on the NWS
MAF homepage.

The forecast area will remain between the deepening ua trough to the
west and the ua ridge to the east Tuesday through Thursday.
PWats will be high enough during this time for heavy rainfall, so if
we receive fairly widespread rainfall Monday, a Flash Flood Watch
may be needed Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday for portions of the
forecast area.  After Thursday, the ua ridge attempts to strengthen/
expand westward.  It looks like PoPs will not be as high, but there
will still be at least a slight chance of showers and storms Friday
through next weekend in most locations.  Another cold front may move
into the region Thursday, but the continuation of rain chances,
cloud cover and moist ground will keep high temperatures near to
slightly below normal through the week, if not late in the extended
forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     82  71  88  71 /  50  40  40  30
Carlsbad                       85  68  90  67 /  20  30  40  30
Dryden                         83  70  90  71 /  50  30  20  10
Fort Stockton                  83  68  87  67 /  40  20  50  30
Guadalupe Pass                 76  62  78  62 /  30  40  50  40
Hobbs                          81  66  87  63 /  30  20  40  40
Marfa                          78  59  77  58 /  40  40  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           83  70  86  70 /  50  30  40  40
Odessa                         84  70  86  69 /  40  30  40  40
Wink                           85  70  88  67 /  30  20  50  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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