Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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297
FXUS64 KMAF 072319
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
519 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and light winds this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast.  At 18Z, sfc analysis
showed fropa about an hour away from KMAF, w/afternoon temps most
locations at or above normal.  Over the past few days, models have
been pretty consistent on the timing of the front, but lagging by a
few hours before CAA really gets going.  Nevertheless, a hard freeze
looks likely overnight, especially after post-frontal gradients
relax under mostly clear skies.  Monday, temps should top out below
normal under light northerly flow, before winds back around to the
southwest/west and bring temps back above-normal Tuesday as the west
coast ridge moves further inland.  Temps are then scheduled to
continue climbing thru Thursday afternoon, feeling more like April
than February as temps most locations climb to the mid-upper 70s.
Unfortunately, another front arrives Thursday evening, w/models
putting fropa at KMAF at around 00Z Friday.  This will take temps
down a notch thru the weekend, but most areas should reach 70F or
better each afternoon.

Otherwise, rain remains elusive thru the extended, w/the latest
ECMWF bone dry, among others.  However, the ridge will still make
for some fairly tame wind fields, putting to rest any critical fire
wx concerns for the moment.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     26  54  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       23  55  26  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         32  61  32  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  27  54  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 26  50  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          22  54  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          21  54  18  61 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           24  57  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         27  56  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           25  57  27  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10

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