Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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246
FXUS64 KMAF 202329
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
629 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Potential for tstms has diminished at TAF sites and the concern
overnight will be possibility of MVFR CIGS/VSBY at MAF toward 12z.
Otherwise a weak wind shift/cold front will move into the northern
sites between 13Z-15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
It appears that despite the lack of a surface focus, low level
moisture enhanced from recent rains is giving enough instability
to allow scattered convection to develop. The bulk of it seems to
be getting help from higher terrain west of the Pecos River,
though a few cells are apparently developing due to daytime
heating and hard to discern mesoscale boundaries. A cell currently
in western Pecos County seems to be telling the story of the
vertical structure of the atmosphere...there is some instability,
but a very long anvil indicates the shear may be bigger factor
thus shearing the storms before they are able to grow large enough
to become severe. This isn`t too surprising given the near 50kts
of 0-6km shear to go along with only 500-1000 J/KG CAPE. Further
north in southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin
shear drops dramatically and instability is even lower so
convection should not get too strong in this area. It will be in
the eastern Permian Basin where shear and POTENTIAL instability
will both be high enough to warrant a severe risk, though CIN due
to earlier rains and lingering clouds may be too much to realize
this instability. Therefore we are not looking for widespread
convection or certainly a severe threat though a few storms may
become severe with large hail and strong winds being the primary
threat.

A weak cold front moves into the area with isolated convection
again possible along this boundary in the lower Trans Pecos as
well as the Davis Mountains where orographics will help out. The
front will bring little if any cool air, but southeast flow on the
back of the surface high will push more moisture into the
mountains Tuesday bringing another chance for isolated
thunderstorms.

Wednesday an upper level trough moves into the central plains
increasing westerly flow. This will sharpen a dryline across the
central Permian Basin from which all models once again show
convective initiation. It is possible there will be fire weather
concerns in the western CWA and severe weather concerns in the
eastern CWA on Wednesday. The dry air will push east with the
upper trough Thursday and continue into Friday leaving very dry
and hot (for this time of year) conditions. An upper trough
digging into the four corners area Saturday could bring a return
of rain chances, though there is not enough model consistent to
introduce PoPs into the forecast at this time.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
907
FXUS64 KMAF 201949
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
249 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
It appears that despite the lack of a surface focus, low level
moisture enhanced from recent rains is giving enough instability
to allow scattered convection to develop. The bulk of it seems to
be getting help from higher terrain west of the Pecos River,
though a few cells are apparently developing due to daytime
heating and hard to discern mesoscale boundaries. A cell currently
in western Pecos County seems to be telling the story of the
vertical structure of the atmosphere...there is some instability,
but a very long anvil indicates the shear may be bigger factor
thus shearing the storms before they are able to grow large enough
to become severe. This isn`t too surprising given the near 50kts
of 0-6km shear to go along with only 500-1000 J/KG CAPE. Further
north in southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin
shear drops dramatically and instability is even lower so
convection should not get too strong in this area. It will be in
the eastern Permian Basin where shear and POTENTIAL instability
will both be high enough to warrant a severe risk, though CIN due
to earlier rains and lingering clouds may be too much to realize
this instability. Therefore we are not looking for widespread
convection or certainly a severe threat though a few storms may
become severe with large hail and strong winds being the primary
threat.

A weak cold front moves into the area with isolated convection
again possible along this boundary in the lower Trans Pecos as
well as the Davis Mountains where orographics will help out. The
front will bring little if any cool air, but southeast flow on the
back of the surface high will push more moisture into the
mountains Tuesday bringing another chance for isolated
thunderstorms.

Wednesday an upper level trough moves into the central plains
increasing westerly flow. This will sharpen a dryline across the
central Permian Basin from which all models once again show
convective initiation. It is possible there will be fire weather
concerns in the western CWA and severe weather concerns in the
eastern CWA on Wednesday. The dry air will push east with the
upper trough Thursday and continue into Friday leaving very dry
and hot (for this time of year) conditions. An upper trough
digging into the four corners area Saturday could bring a return
of rain chances, though there is not enough model consistent to
introduce PoPs into the forecast at this time.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  84  57  83  /  20  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              60  85  58  83  /  30  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                54  84  58  84  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  62  90  62  90  /  20  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  87  60  85  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          54  76  53  77  /   0   0   0  20
HOBBS NM                   53  82  54  82  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   49  79  51  79  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    59  86  58  84  /  20  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  59  86  59  84  /  20  10  10   0
WINK TX                    56  88  61  87  /  20   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/10
658
FXUS64 KMAF 201712
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1212 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
Low clouds have stuck around most of the Permian Basin all morning
including KMAF. Expect these IFR cigs to break within the next
couple of hours. Thunderstorms currently to our northeast will
continue into north Texas with isolated development possible
across the rest of the region this afternoon. Will not include in
TAFS yet as timing and location of the storms is to be determined.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014/

UPDATE...
Adjustments to this afternoon`s weather grids for southwest Texas.

DISCUSSION...
With clearing skies this morning and ample moisture in place across the
Marfa Plateau, diabatic heating will contribute to convective
development later this afternoon along higher terrain. Latest
model guidance supports this trend and have updated PoP, weather,
QPF, and sky grids. No other changes made to the forecast.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Area radars show lingering SHRA over the SE Permian Basin, and these
should be east of the CWA in another hour or so.  Last night`s
convection was the most widespread event West Texas/SE NM has seen
in some time.  KMAF set a new record rainfall for the day (0.45")
and up to 1.29" was reported, at Terlingua.  MPE came in w/event
totals as high as 1.95", w/highest estimates from the Davis Mtns
south.

WV imagery shows the upper trough currently over NE NM, and forecast
to move slowly thru the panhandles today.  Sfc obs show moisture
backed up well into the mtns, w/dewpoints on nearly 50F or better
thru KELP.  This will begin mixing east after sunrise as SW-W flow
picks up out west.  However, return flow remains weak, and the
dryline will remain relatively diffuse.  Redevelopment along this
feature is anticipated later today, especially if residual
convective cloud cover clears out, as it appears to be doing on
satellite.  By this afternoon, best 0-6km layer shear will be over
the Lwr Trans Pecos, which will be under the right rear quadrant of
the upper jet, all favoring supercell development.  However,
yesterday`s threat was large hail, and both NAM and GFS forecast
soundings for KCNM, SNK, and K6R6 show very similar temp profiles to
yesterday`s 00Z RAOB for KMAF.  W/this in mind, a severe threat will
exist w/any convection that develops, mainly large hail.  This
activity should taper off to the NE this evening as the upper trough
continues moving E thru OK.

Otherwise, temps warm to well-abv normal Monday despite models
bringing a weak front into the area.  An upper ridge then builds
into the region, resulting in temps about 2 cats above normal into
the extended.  By midweek, the ridge is forecast to move off to the
east as an upper trough traverses the U.S./Canadian border.
Wednesday, leeside sfc troughing will induce westerly flow over the
mtns, and this looks to be the next critical fire wx day, mainly
west of the Pecos.  To the east, a dryline is forecast to sharpen
up, w/models initiating convection along this feature Wednesday
afternoon.  Models then bring a weak cold front thru Wednesday night
behind the dryline, but this looks to have negligible affect on
temps Thursday.  Forecast then remains dry thru the rest of the
extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29
850
FXUS64 KMAF 201549
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1049 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Adjustments to this afternoon`s weather grids for southwest Texas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
With clearing skies this morning and ample moisture in place across the
Marfa Plateau, diabatic heating will contribute to convective
development later this afternoon along higher terrain. Latest
model guidance supports this trend and have updated PoP, weather,
QPF, and sky grids. No other changes made to the forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Isolated areas of low clouds and fog will continue to impact the
area until about 15z.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the area this afternoon and evening with MAF and HOB having
the best chances of experiencing convection.  Winds will generally
be out of the south and west today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Area radars show lingering SHRA over the SE Permian Basin, and these
should be east of the CWA in another hour or so.  Last night`s
convection was the most widespread event West Texas/SE NM has seen
in some time.  KMAF set a new record rainfall for the day (0.45")
and up to 1.29" was reported, at Terlingua.  MPE came in w/event
totals as high as 1.95", w/highest estimates from the Davis Mtns
south.

WV imagery shows the upper trough currently over NE NM, and forecast
to move slowly thru the panhandles today.  Sfc obs show moisture
backed up well into the mtns, w/dewpoints on nearly 50F or better
thru KELP.  This will begin mixing east after sunrise as SW-W flow
picks up out west.  However, return flow remains weak, and the
dryline will remain relatively diffuse.  Redevelopment along this
feature is anticipated later today, especially if residual
convective cloud cover clears out, as it appears to be doing on
satellite.  By this afternoon, best 0-6km layer shear will be over
the Lwr Trans Pecos, which will be under the right rear quadrant of
the upper jet, all favoring supercell development.  However,
yesterday`s threat was large hail, and both NAM and GFS forecast
soundings for KCNM, SNK, and K6R6 show very similar temp profiles to
yesterday`s 00Z RAOB for KMAF.  W/this in mind, a severe threat will
exist w/any convection that develops, mainly large hail.  This
activity should taper off to the NE this evening as the upper trough
continues moving E thru OK.

Otherwise, temps warm to well-abv normal Monday despite models
bringing a weak front into the area.  An upper ridge then builds
into the region, resulting in temps about 2 cats above normal into
the extended.  By midweek, the ridge is forecast to move off to the
east as an upper trough traverses the U.S./Canadian border.
Wednesday, leeside sfc troughing will induce westerly flow over the
mtns, and this looks to be the next critical fire wx day, mainly
west of the Pecos.  To the east, a dryline is forecast to sharpen
up, w/models initiating convection along this feature Wednesday
afternoon.  Models then bring a weak cold front thru Wednesday night
behind the dryline, but this looks to have negligible affect on
temps Thursday.  Forecast then remains dry thru the rest of the
extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 79  59  86  59  /  20  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              81  61  85  57  /  30  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                80  52  83  58  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  84  61  90  63  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  58  89  61  /  20  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          72  60  76  57  /  10  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   77  52  83  54  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   77  45  79  49  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    82  59  88  58  /  20  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  81  60  88  60  /  20  10   0   0
WINK TX                    84  57  90  58  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

13
079
FXUS64 KMAF 201105
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
551 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated areas of low clouds and fog will continue to impact the
area until about 15z.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the area this afternoon and evening with MAF and HOB having
the best chances of experiencing convection.  Winds will generally
be out of the south and west today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014/

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show lingering SHRA over the SE Permian Basin, and these
should be east of the CWA in another hour or so.  Last night`s
convection was the most widespread event West Texas/SE NM has seen
in some time.  KMAF set a new record rainfall for the day (0.45")
and up to 1.29" was reported, at Terlingua.  MPE came in w/event
totals as high as 1.95", w/highest estimates from the Davis Mtns
south.

WV imagery shows the upper trough currently over NE NM, and forecast
to move slowly thru the panhandles today.  Sfc obs show moisture
backed up well into the mtns, w/dewpoints on nearly 50F or better
thru KELP.  This will begin mixing east after sunrise as SW-W flow
picks up out west.  However, return flow remains weak, and the
dryline will remain relatively diffuse.  Redevelopment along this
feature is anticipated later today, especially if residual
convective cloud cover clears out, as it appears to be doing on
satellite.  By this afternoon, best 0-6km layer shear will be over
the Lwr Trans Pecos, which will be under the right rear quadrant of
the upper jet, all favoring supercell development.  However,
yesterday`s threat was large hail, and both NAM and GFS forecast
soundings for KCNM, SNK, and K6R6 show very similar temp profiles to
yesterday`s 00Z RAOB for KMAF.  W/this in mind, a severe threat will
exist w/any convection that develops, mainly large hail.  This
activity should taper off to the NE this evening as the upper trough
continues moving E thru OK.

Otherwise, temps warm to well-abv normal Monday despite models
bringing a weak front into the area.  An upper ridge then builds
into the region, resulting in temps about 2 cats above normal into
the extended.  By midweek, the ridge is forecast to move off to the
east as an upper trough traverses the U.S./Canadian border.
Wednesday, leeside sfc troughing will induce westerly flow over the
mtns, and this looks to be the next critical fire wx day, mainly
west of the Pecos.  To the east, a dryline is forecast to sharpen
up, w/models initiating convection along this feature Wednesday
afternoon.  Models then bring a weak cold front thru Wednesday night
behind the dryline, but this looks to have negligible affect on
temps Thursday.  Forecast then remains dry thru the rest of the
extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 79  59  86  59  /  20  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              81  61  85  57  /  40  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                80  52  83  58  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  84  61  90  63  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  58  89  61  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          72  60  76  57  /  10  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   77  52  83  54  /  20  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   77  45  79  49  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    82  59  88  58  /  20  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  81  60  88  60  /  20  10   0   0
WINK TX                    84  57  90  58  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/44
009
FXUS64 KMAF 201042
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
542 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show lingering SHRA over the SE Permian Basin, and these
should be east of the CWA in another hour or so.  Last night`s
convection was the most widespread event West Texas/SE NM has seen
in some time.  KMAF set a new record rainfall for the day (0.45")
and up to 1.29" was reported, at Terlingua.  MPE came in w/event
totals as high as 1.95", w/highest estimates from the Davis Mtns
south.

WV imagery shows the upper trough currently over NE NM, and forecast
to move slowly thru the panhandles today.  Sfc obs show moisture
backed up well into the mtns, w/dewpoints on nearly 50F or better
thru KELP.  This will begin mixing east after sunrise as SW-W flow
picks up out west.  However, return flow remains weak, and the
dryline will remain relatively diffuse.  Redevelopment along this
feature is anticipated later today, especially if residual
convective cloud cover clears out, as it appears to be doing on
satellite.  By this afternoon, best 0-6km layer shear will be over
the Lwr Trans Pecos, which will be under the right rear quadrant of
the upper jet, all favoring supercell development.  However,
yesterday`s threat was large hail, and both NAM and GFS forecast
soundings for KCNM, SNK, and K6R6 show very similar temp profiles to
yesterday`s 00Z RAOB for KMAF.  W/this in mind, a severe threat will
exist w/any convection that develops, mainly large hail.  This
activity should taper off to the NE this evening as the upper trough
continues moving E thru OK.

Otherwise, temps warm to well-abv normal Monday despite models
bringing a weak front into the area.  An upper ridge then builds
into the region, resulting in temps about 2 cats above normal into
the extended.  By midweek, the ridge is forecast to move off to the
east as an upper trough traverses the U.S./Canadian border.
Wednesday, leeside sfc troughing will induce westerly flow over the
mtns, and this looks to be the next critical fire wx day, mainly
west of the Pecos.  To the east, a dryline is forecast to sharpen
up, w/models initiating convection along this feature Wednesday
afternoon.  Models then bring a weak cold front thru Wednesday night
behind the dryline, but this looks to have negligible affect on
temps Thursday.  Forecast then remains dry thru the rest of the
extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 79  59  86  59  /  20  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              81  61  85  57  /  40  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                80  52  83  58  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  84  61  90  63  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  58  89  61  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          72  60  76  57  /  10  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   77  52  83  54  /  20  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   77  45  79  49  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    82  59  88  58  /  20  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  81  60  88  60  /  20  10   0   0
WINK TX                    84  57  90  58  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/44
398
FXUS64 KMAF 200526
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area for the next
couple of hours primarily affecting FST.  Low ceilings will likely
move into the area around 10z.  Additional showers and thunderstorms
will remain possible through the day Sunday but probabilities are
too low to mention in the TAFS at this time.  Winds will generally
be out of the south and west.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An initial round of showers and thunderstorms has moved into
southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin this
afternoon. Models remain consistent in indicating daytime heating
causing destabilization in the mountains later this afternoon
and another round of convection to develop and move northeast
overnight. Most areas not currently receiving rain will have to
hope this pans out as this will be the best chance for widespread
rainfall.

Drier air begins moving in from the west tomorrow setting up a
weak dryline across the central CWA. Though weak, there should be
enough low level convergence and upper support from the passing
trough to initiate more convection. CAPE values of 1-1.5 KJ/KG
and 0-6km shear values of 30-50kts indicate there will be some
severe potential hence a slight risk from SPC in our eastern
counties. 0-2km shear values are not impressive so the severe
threat will be mainly large hail and strong winds.

A weak cold front will drop into the area behind the departing
upper trough but will bring very little if any cooling. A zonal
upper pattern will bring a series of trough-ridge couplets, thus a
weak upper ridge Tuesday warms temps with another trough
arriving on Wednesday. This trough will be farther north than the
current one giving a stronger westerly flow and more surface dry
air to the western CWA. Upper lift will not be as favorable
but this may be compensated with a sharper dryline and better low
level convergence as several models are showing some storms
developing Wednesday afternoon. Have added a slight chance for
precip to the forecast but conditions are not at all optimal so
will not get hopes up for rain with this system. Another ridge
late in the week brings a return of warmer and drier conditions.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27
594
FXUS64 KMAF 192329
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
629 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be the thunderstorm
activity affecting terminals through this evening. Currently have
strong storms over the Davis Mountains with gusty winds and hail
likely. Expect this storm to affect FST and possibly PEQ by 00-01Z.
Winds could gust up to 45kt at FST and have included mention of this
in a TEMPO. In addition, have TSRA at CNM, HOB and INK by 20/01Z
followed by MAF at 20/03Z. Will amend with any changes to current
thinking and/or radar trends. Brief low vsbys/cigs will be possible
with any storms that affect terminals. Otherwise, could see MVFR
cigs develop at MAF and possibly HOB early Sunday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An initial round of showers and thunderstorms has moved into
southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin this
afternoon. Models remain consistent in indicating daytime heating
causing destabilization in the mountains later this afternoon
and another round of convection to develop and move northeast
overnight. Most areas not currently receiving rain will have to
hope this pans out as this will be the best chance for widespread
rainfall.

Drier air begins moving in from the west tomorrow setting up a
weak dryline across the central CWA. Though weak, there should be
enough low level convergence and upper support from the passing
trough to initiate more convection. CAPE values of 1-1.5 KJ/KG
and 0-6km shear values of 30-50kts indicate there will be some
severe potential hence a slight risk from SPC in our eastern
counties. 0-2km shear values are not impressive so the severe
threat will be mainly large hail and strong winds.

A weak cold front will drop into the area behind the departing
upper trough but will bring very little if any cooling. A zonal
upper pattern will bring a series of trough-ridge couplets, thus a
weak upper ridge Tuesday warms temps with another trough
arriving on Wednesday. This trough will be farther north than the
current one giving a stronger westerly flow and more surface dry
air to the western CWA. Upper lift will not be as favorable
but this may be compensated with a sharper dryline and better low
level convergence as several models are showing some storms
developing Wednesday afternoon. Have added a slight chance for
precip to the forecast but conditions are not at all optimal so
will not get hopes up for rain with this system. Another ridge
late in the week brings a return of warmer and drier conditions.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27
671
FXUS64 KMAF 191947
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
247 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
An initial round of showers and thunderstorms has moved into
southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin this
afternoon. Models remain consistent in indicating daytime heating
causing destabilization in the mountains later this afternoon
and another round of convection to develop and move northeast
overnight. Most areas not currently receiving rain will have to
hope this pans out as this will be the best chance for widespread
rainfall.

Drier air begins moving in from the west tomorrow setting up a
weak dryline across the central CWA. Though weak, there should be
enough low level convergence and upper support from the passing
trough to initiate more convection. CAPE values of 1-1.5 KJ/KG
and 0-6km shear values of 30-50kts indicate there will be some
severe potential hence a slight risk from SPC in our eastern
counties. 0-2km shear values are not impressive so the severe
threat will be mainly large hail and strong winds.

A weak cold front will drop into the area behind the departing
upper trough but will bring very little if any cooling. A zonal
upper pattern will bring a series of trough-ridge couplets, thus a
weak upper ridge Tuesday warms temps with another trough
arriving on Wednesday. This trough will be farther north than the
current one giving a stronger westerly flow and more surface dry
air to the western CWA. Upper lift will not be as favorable
but this may be compensated with a sharper dryline and better low
level convergence as several models are showing some storms
developing Wednesday afternoon. Have added a slight chance for
precip to the forecast but conditions are not at all optimal so
will not get hopes up for rain with this system. Another ridge
late in the week brings a return of warmer and drier conditions.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  79  58  84  /  60  30  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              59  78  61  85  /  60  40  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                54  81  56  84  /  60  10   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  61  82  63  92  /  60  20  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  82  59  87  /  70  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  72  55  75  /  50  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   54  78  54  81  /  60  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   50  75  50  80  /  60  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  80  60  85  /  60  30  10  10
ODESSA TX                  58  80  60  86  /  60  20  10  10
WINK TX                    58  83  58  86  /  60  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/10
922
FXUS64 KMAF 191723
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1223 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and move northeast
across SE NM and the Trans Pecos region. Expect this activity to
move across the Permian Basin this afternoon with locally MVFR
cigs and gusty winds inside the thunderstorms. We may see a break
late this afternoon with more thunderstorms possible across the
area late this evening. MVFR cigs will likely move into KMAF
early Sunday morning as moisture continues to increase east of a
dryline.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Light showers are currently falling across parts of southeast New
Mexico and the Trans Pecos.  This activity is expected to spread
eastward through the day with thunderstorms possible.  The heaviest
rain will generally be south and west of the Pecos River, but the
precipitation is expected to reach to the Permian Basin by this
evening.  An upper level trough is currently approaching the region
and is providing upper level lift with shortwaves moving over the
area.  Higher CAPE and bulk shear values will be present across the
Davis Mountains southward to the Rio Grande this afternoon so an
isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

The upper level trough will move over the Texas panhandle into
Oklahoma on Sunday with the area of rain shifting to the east.  0 to
6 km Bulk shear values will be around 50 kts and CAPE values will be
over 1000 J/kg across the Lower Trans Pecos and southeast Permian
Basin so severe thunderstorms will be possible across this area on
Sunday.  Showers and thunderstorms will linger across the area on
Monday as shortwaves continue to move over the area on the backside
of the upper trough.  Precipitation coverage is not expected to be
as widespread on Monday with the low level moisture moving east of
the area.  Temperatures will warm up to slightly above average
values on Monday despite a northerly wind shift during the
afternoon.

The upper trough will move toward the east coast on Tuesday with
upper ridging developing over the region.  On Wednesday, an upper
trough will move toward the Northern Plains with a lee surface
trough and dryline developing across the CWA.  Thunderstorms will be
possible along and east of the dryline during the afternoon hours
although did not add in pops to the forecast yet.  Temperatures will
warm up to around 10 degrees above normal on Wednesday with the
presence of the surface trough.  This upper trough will move over
the Great Lakes region by the end of next week with upper ridging
once again developing over the area.  Temperatures will remain above
average through the extended forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29
041
FXUS64 KMAF 191053
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
553 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows a fetch of subtropical moisture streaming into
West Texas/SE NM ahead of an upper level trough over SW AZ, and will
result in increasing/lowering cloud cover over the next 24 hours.
Models develop a MVFR stratus deck on return flow this AM, w/some of
this making it into KMAF before 18Z. Otherwise, buffer soundings
suggest a widespread cu field developing by late morning, w/cigs
3.5-6 kft agl. Area radars show some -SHRA in the area, and models
suggest more convection will develop into western terminals by
late morning. Cigs should remain VFR in convection, except SE NM,
where they could dip into MVFR at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Light showers are currently falling across parts of southeast New
Mexico and the Trans Pecos.  This activity is expected to spread
eastward through the day with thunderstorms possible.  The heaviest
rain will generally be south and west of the Pecos River, but the
precipitation is expected to reach to the Permian Basin by this
evening.  An upper level trough is currently approaching the region
and is providing upper level lift with shortwaves moving over the
area.  Higher CAPE and bulk shear values will be present across the
Davis Mountains southward to the Rio Grande this afternoon so an
isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

The upper level trough will move over the Texas panhandle into
Oklahoma on Sunday with the area of rain shifting to the east.  0 to
6 km Bulk shear values will be around 50 kts and CAPE values will be
over 1000 J/kg across the Lower Trans Pecos and southeast Permian
Basin so severe thunderstorms will be possible across this area on
Sunday.  Showers and thunderstorms will linger across the area on
Monday as shortwaves continue to move over the area on the backside
of the upper trough.  Precipitation coverage is not expected to be
as widespread on Monday with the low level moisture moving east of
the area.  Temperatures will warm up to slightly above average
values on Monday despite a northerly wind shift during the
afternoon.

The upper trough will move toward the east coast on Tuesday with
upper ridging developing over the region.  On Wednesday, an upper
trough will move toward the Northern Plains with a lee surface
trough and dryline developing across the CWA.  Thunderstorms will be
possible along and east of the dryline during the afternoon hours
although did not add in pops to the forecast yet.  Temperatures will
warm up to around 10 degrees above normal on Wednesday with the
presence of the surface trough.  This upper trough will move over
the Great Lakes region by the end of next week with upper ridging
once again developing over the area.  Temperatures will remain above
average through the extended forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
145
FXUS64 KMAF 191001
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
500 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Light showers are currently falling across parts of southeast New
Mexico and the Trans Pecos.  This activity is expected to spread
eastward through the day with thunderstorms possible.  The heaviest
rain will generally be south and west of the Pecos River, but the
precipitation is expected to reach to the Permian Basin by this
evening.  An upper level trough is currently approaching the region
and is providing upper level lift with shortwaves moving over the
area.  Higher CAPE and bulk shear values will be present across the
Davis Mountains southward to the Rio Grande this afternoon so an
isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

The upper level trough will move over the Texas panhandle into
Oklahoma on Sunday with the area of rain shifting to the east.  0 to
6 km Bulk shear values will be around 50 kts and CAPE values will be
over 1000 J/kg across the Lower Trans Pecos and southeast Permian
Basin so severe thunderstorms will be possible across this area on
Sunday.  Showers and thunderstorms will linger across the area on
Monday as shortwaves continue to move over the area on the backside
of the upper trough.  Precipitation coverage is not expected to be
as widespread on Monday with the low level moisture moving east of
the area.  Temperatures will warm up to slightly above average
values on Monday despite a northerly wind shift during the
afternoon.

The upper trough will move toward the east coast on Tuesday with
upper ridging developing over the region.  On Wednesday, an upper
trough will move toward the Northern Plains with a lee surface
trough and dryline developing across the CWA.  Thunderstorms will be
possible along and east of the dryline during the afternoon hours
although did not add in pops to the forecast yet.  Temperatures will
warm up to around 10 degrees above normal on Wednesday with the
presence of the surface trough.  This upper trough will move over
the Great Lakes region by the end of next week with upper ridging
once again developing over the area.  Temperatures will remain above
average through the extended forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 75  58  80  58  /  40  40  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              76  60  80  60  /  20  40  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                74  53  82  53  /  70  40  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  77  64  82  65  /  20  40  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           76  59  82  61  /  40  40  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          68  53  76  56  /  70  30  10  10
HOBBS NM                   72  52  79  52  /  50  40  20  10
MARFA TX                   73  48  76  46  /  70  40  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  59  80  59  /  30  40  20  20
ODESSA TX                  76  59  80  59  /  30  40  20  20
WINK TX                    77  58  83  58  /  50  40  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/80
959
FXUS64 KMAF 190522
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows a fetch of subtropical moisture streaming into
West Texas/SE NM ahead of an upper level trough over nrn Baja, and
will result in increasing/lowering cloud cover over the next 24
hours. Models develop a MVFR stratus deck on return flow
overnight, w/some of this making it into KMAF shortly after 12Z.
Otherwise, buffer soundings suggest a widespread cu field
developing by late morning, w/cigs 3.5-6 kft agl. Area radars show
convection already creeping into Culberson County, and this will
develop into western terminals by late morning. Cigs should remain
VFR in convection.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
VFR conditions across the board this evening with SE winds
prevailing. The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will
be -TSRA chances Saturday morning and afternoon. Current thinking
is for thunderstorms to develop west of the terminals early
Saturday morning and spread east throughout the day. Higher
confidence for convection to develop at CNM first then HOB a few
hours later. Not sure how early activity will develop so continued
PROB30 during the morning hours then put -TSRA in prevailing for
late morning/early afternoon at NM sites. In addition, kept
mention of PROB30 -TSRA at INK and PEQ for the afternoon but was
not confident enough to go prevailing. Confidence is too low for
MAF and FST to include any mention of thunderstorm activity attm.
Adjustments will likely be needed in later TAF cycles. Otherwise,
could see a brief period of MVFR at MAF terminal between 12-16Z
therefore introduced a TEMPO for this time frame.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Rain chances are still looking pretty decent Saturday and Saturday
night, even for the Permian Basin.  Despite another frontal boundary
moving into the region on Monday, next week is still looking hot.
Just how dry remains to be seen.

An ua trough over southern California this afternoon is progged to
translate gradually eastward the next couple of days and move over
the Texas Panhandle Sunday.  Increasing low level moisture on low
level southeasterly flow will continue tonight and Saturday as this
ua trough approaches, resulting in surface dewpoints rising into the
50s over most of southeast New Mexico and West Texas.  By late this
afternoon, a surface trough will reside near the western fringe of
the forecast area.  It appears there will be enough low level
moisture for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
heated higher terrain.  Since mid level support for convection is
lacking, think anything that develops will dissipate with the loss
of heating.  Ascent will increase later tonight ahead of a
shortwave trough, while the surface trough eases eastward into the
area.  Think we could see showers and weak thunderstorms late
tonight, especially from the Guadalupe to Davis Mountains.  The
surface trough will continue slowly eastward Saturday and will
stay near the higher terrain by Saturday afternoon.  Most models
are focusing rain chances along the surface trough as a more
substantial shortwave trough ejects eastward over the area.  Have
increased PoPs over the western half of the forecast area, then
shifted PoPs eastward over the Permian Basin Saturday night.  0 to
6 km bulk shear of 40 to 50kt, mid level lapse rates around 7 C/Km
and a modest H5 45kt jetlet look favorable for severe storms.
However, not certain instability will be as high as some models
are indicating.  For now, will only mention an isolated severe
thunderstorm or two in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for Saturday
and Saturday night.  These time frames will have to be monitored
though, since better heating and the resultant higher surface
based CAPE could lead to a severe weather event.  PWATS will rise
to 1.25 inches which will prompt inclusion of locally heavy
rainfall, particularly from the Davis Mountains, north through the
Upper Trans Pecos and into the southeast New Mexico Plains.  These
areas will also be most favorable for severe storms if the higher
instability can be realized, not to mention heavy rain.

On Sunday the ua trough will linger over the forecast area.  Have
kept a slight chance over the eastern half of the forecast area,
especially since these areas may receive little rainfall through
Saturday night.  Temperatures will warm into the 70s and 80s with
some models indicating enough instability cropping up for strong
storms Sunday afternoon.  Prefer to keep the PoPs low at this time,
and leave mention of severe storms in this discussion since
precipitation through Saturday night could severely limit
instability Sunday afternoon.  A weak cold front will move south
into the area Monday.  There will not be much cooling behind this
front, but low level moisture could be shunted back into the Davis
Mountains, if not Guadalupe Mountains.  Will not include any mention
of showers and thunderstorms at this time for Monday or Monday
night, but some may need to be added if today`s model trends
continue.  Temperatures will be a little warmer Monday and Tuesday,
but will warm well above normal Wednesday as a low level thermal
ridge expands over the region.  Temperatures may be a little cooler,
but still hot, Thursday and Friday as the thermal ridge flattens due
to a trough passing over the central Rockies.  A dryline will begin
diurnal undulations over the area Wednesday, but will not include
any rain chances yet.  Much can change between now and then, and at
this time there is no definite mid level feature to support any
convection.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
047
FXUS64 KMAF 182338
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
638 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
VFR conditions across the board this evening with SE winds
prevailing. The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will
be -TSRA chances Saturday morning and afternoon. Current thinking
is for thunderstorms to develop west of the terminals early
Saturday morning and spread east throughout the day. Higher
confidence for convection to develop at CNM first then HOB a few
hours later. Not sure how early activity will develop so continued
PROB30 during the morning hours then put -TSRA in prevailing for
late morning/early afternoon at NM sites. In addition, kept
mention of PROB30 -TSRA at INK and PEQ for the afternoon but was
not confident enough to go prevailing. Confidence is too low for
MAF and FST to include any mention of thunderstorm activity attm.
Adjustments will likely be needed in later TAF cycles. Otherwise,
could see a brief period of MVFR at MAF terminal between 12-16Z
therefore introduced a TEMPO for this time frame.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Rain chances are still looking pretty decent Saturday and Saturday
night, even for the Permian Basin.  Despite another frontal boundary
moving into the region on Monday, next week is still looking hot.
Just how dry remains to be seen.

An ua trough over southern California this afternoon is progged to
translate gradually eastward the next couple of days and move over
the Texas Panhandle Sunday.  Increasing low level moisture on low
level southeasterly flow will continue tonight and Saturday as this
ua trough approaches, resulting in surface dewpoints rising into the
50s over most of southeast New Mexico and West Texas.  By late this
afternoon, a surface trough will reside near the western fringe of
the forecast area.  It appears there will be enough low level
moisture for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
heated higher terrain.  Since mid level support for convection is
lacking, think anything that develops will dissipate with the loss
of heating.  Ascent will increase later tonight ahead of a
shortwave trough, while the surface trough eases eastward into the
area.  Think we could see showers and weak thunderstorms late
tonight, especially from the Guadalupe to Davis Mountains.  The
surface trough will continue slowly eastward Saturday and will
stay near the higher terrain by Saturday afternoon.  Most models
are focusing rain chances along the surface trough as a more
substantial shortwave trough ejects eastward over the area.  Have
increased PoPs over the western half of the forecast area, then
shifted PoPs eastward over the Permian Basin Saturday night.  0 to
6 km bulk shear of 40 to 50kt, mid level lapse rates around 7 C/Km
and a modest H5 45kt jetlet look favorable for severe storms.
However, not certain instability will be as high as some models
are indicating.  For now, will only mention an isolated severe
thunderstorm or two in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for Saturday
and Saturday night.  These time frames will have to be monitored
though, since better heating and the resultant higher surface
based CAPE could lead to a severe weather event.  PWATS will rise
to 1.25 inches which will prompt inclusion of locally heavy
rainfall, particularly from the Davis Mountains, north through the
Upper Trans Pecos and into the southeast New Mexico Plains.  These
areas will also be most favorable for severe storms if the higher
instability can be realized, not to mention heavy rain.

On Sunday the ua trough will linger over the forecast area.  Have
kept a slight chance over the eastern half of the forecast area,
especially since these areas may receive little rainfall through
Saturday night.  Temperatures will warm into the 70s and 80s with
some models indicating enough instability cropping up for strong
storms Sunday afternoon.  Prefer to keep the PoPs low at this time,
and leave mention of severe storms in this discussion since
precipitation through Saturday night could severely limit
instability Sunday afternoon.  A weak cold front will move south
into the area Monday.  There will not be much cooling behind this
front, but low level moisture could be shunted back into the Davis
Mountains, if not Guadalupe Mountains.  Will not include any mention
of showers and thunderstorms at this time for Monday or Monday
night, but some may need to be added if today`s model trends
continue.  Temperatures will be a little warmer Monday and Tuesday,
but will warm well above normal Wednesday as a low level thermal
ridge expands over the region.  Temperatures may be a little cooler,
but still hot, Thursday and Friday as the thermal ridge flattens due
to a trough passing over the central Rockies.  A dryline will begin
diurnal undulations over the area Wednesday, but will not include
any rain chances yet.  Much can change between now and then, and at
this time there is no definite mid level feature to support any
convection.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27
788
FXUS64 KMAF 181840
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
140 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Rain chances are still looking pretty decent Saturday and Saturday
night, even for the Permian Basin.  Despite another frontal boundary
moving into the region on Monday, next week is still looking hot.
Just how dry remains to be seen.

An ua trough over southern California this afternoon is progged to
translate gradually eastward the next couple of days and move over
the Texas Panhandle Sunday.  Increasing low level moisture on low
level southeasterly flow will continue tonight and Saturday as this
ua trough approaches, resulting in surface dewpoints rising into the
50s over most of southeast New Mexico and West Texas.  By late this
afternoon, a surface trough will reside near the western fringe of
the forecast area.  It appears there will be enough low level
moisture for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
heated higher terrain.  Since mid level support for convection is
lacking, think anything that develops will dissipate with the loss
of heating.  Ascent will increase later tonight ahead of a
shortwave trough, while the surface trough eases eastward into the
area.  Think we could see showers and weak thunderstorms late
tonight, especially from the Guadalupe to Davis Mountains.  The
surface trough will continue slowly eastward Saturday and will
stay near the higher terrain by Saturday afternoon.  Most models
are focusing rain chances along the surface trough as a more
substantial shortwave trough ejects eastward over the area.  Have
increased PoPs over the western half of the forecast area, then
shifted PoPs eastward over the Permian Basin Saturday night.  0 to
6 km bulk shear of 40 to 50kt, mid level lapse rates around 7 C/Km
and a modest H5 45kt jetlet look favorable for severe storms.
However, not certain instability will be as high as some models
are indicating.  For now, will only mention an isolated severe
thunderstorm or two in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for Saturday
and Saturday night.  These time frames will have to be monitored
though, since better heating and the resultant higher surface
based CAPE could lead to a severe weather event.  PWATS will rise
to 1.25 inches which will prompt inclusion of locally heavy
rainfall, particularly from the Davis Mountains, north through the
Upper Trans Pecos and into the southeast New Mexico Plains.  These
areas will also be most favorable for severe storms if the higher
instability can be realized, not to mention heavy rain.

On Sunday the ua trough will linger over the forecast area.  Have
kept a slight chance over the eastern half of the forecast area,
especially since these areas may receive little rainfall through
Saturday night.  Temperatures will warm into the 70s and 80s with
some models indicating enough instability cropping up for strong
storms Sunday afternoon.  Prefer to keep the PoPs low at this time,
and leave mention of severe storms in this discussion since
precipitation through Saturday night could severely limit
instability Sunday afternoon.  A weak cold front will move south
into the area Monday.  There will not be much cooling behind this
front, but low level moisture could be shunted back into the Davis
Mountains, if not Guadalupe Mountains.  Will not include any mention
of showers and thunderstorms at this time for Monday or Monday
night, but some may need to be added if today`s model trends
continue.  Temperatures will be a little warmer Monday and Tuesday,
but will warm well above normal Wednesday as a low level thermal
ridge expands over the region.  Temperatures may be a little cooler,
but still hot, Thursday and Friday as the thermal ridge flattens due
to a trough passing over the central Rockies.  A dryline will begin
diurnal undulations over the area Wednesday, but will not include
any rain chances yet.  Much can change between now and then, and at
this time there is no definite mid level feature to support any
convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  75  58  82  /  10  40  40  20
BIG SPRING TX              59  77  61  81  /   0  20  40  30
CARLSBAD NM                55  75  50  82  /  30  50  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  61  79  63  83  /   0  20  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  78  59  82  /  10  40  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          52  69  53  76  /  40  50  20  10
HOBBS NM                   52  71  52  80  /  10  50  30  20
MARFA TX                   49  74  48  77  /  30  60  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    59  76  60  82  /   0  30  50  20
ODESSA TX                  59  76  59  81  /   0  30  50  20
WINK TX                    58  77  57  83  /  10  50  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/67
272
FXUS64 KMAF 181714
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS is lifting across the area and all sites should be
VFR within the next couple of hours. Afterward VFR conditions will
remain through most of the period, though there is uncertainty
around 12Z when models are showing an increase in low level
moisture which may result in a return of MVFR CIGs. However will
not place in the TAFs at this time due to increasing mid and upper
level clouds and showers/T-storms moving in from the west late in
the TAF period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR cigs have moved into TAF locations overnight. These cigs
will slowly lift during the morning hours before finally
dissipating by early afternoon. Increasing mid and high level
cloudiness is anticipated across the area through the period.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible..mainly west of the Pecos
River after 19/0000z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures today will be similar to those from yesterday as
surface winds become southeasterly by this afternoon.  These winds
will bring an increase in low-level moisture.  An upper level trough
over southern California is approaching the region with shortwaves
moving over the area.  This increase in moisture and lift will
contribute to showers developing across the eastern Permian Basin
and Lower Trans Pecos this morning and thunderstorms developing
across the higher terrain later this afternoon.  Showers and
thunderstorms will spread eastward across the CWA on Saturday as the
upper trough gets closer.  The upper level trough will approach and
pass over the Southern Plains on Sunday with rain lingering across
the area.  There will be areas with CAPE values of over 1000 J/kg
and 0-6 km bulk shear will be near 50 kts so a strong to severe
storm cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon across the Lower Trans
Pecos and eastern Permian Basin.

On Monday, the upper level trough will move to the east of the
region with the precipitation moving out of the area as well.  A
cold front will move into the area on Monday on the backside of the
upper trough but this front will not have much impact on
temperatures as highs warm to above average.  Temperatures will
gradually increase through the middle of next week with upper level
ridging developing over the region.  Another upper trough is
expected to approach the Central/Northern Plains with a dryline
possibly developing across the CWA on Wednesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10
819
FXUS64 KMAF 181126
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR cigs have moved into TAF locations overnight. These cigs
will slowly lift during the morning hours before finally
dissipating by early afternoon. Increasing mid and high level
cloudiness is anticipated across the area through the period.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible..mainly west of the Pecos
River after 19/0000z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures today will be similar to those from yesterday as
surface winds become southeasterly by this afternoon.  These winds
will bring an increase in low-level moisture.  An upper level trough
over southern California is approaching the region with shortwaves
moving over the area.  This increase in moisture and lift will
contribute to showers developing across the eastern Permian Basin
and Lower Trans Pecos this morning and thunderstorms developing
across the higher terrain later this afternoon.  Showers and
thunderstorms will spread eastward across the CWA on Saturday as the
upper trough gets closer.  The upper level trough will approach and
pass over the Southern Plains on Sunday with rain lingering across
the area.  There will be areas with CAPE values of over 1000 J/kg
and 0-6 km bulk shear will be near 50 kts so a strong to severe
storm cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon across the Lower Trans
Pecos and eastern Permian Basin.

On Monday, the upper level trough will move to the east of the
region with the precipitation moving out of the area as well.  A
cold front will move into the area on Monday on the backside of the
upper trough but this front will not have much impact on
temperatures as highs warm to above average.  Temperatures will
gradually increase through the middle of next week with upper level
ridging developing over the region.  Another upper trough is
expected to approach the Central/Northern Plains with a dryline
possibly developing across the CWA on Wednesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03
676
FXUS64 KMAF 181011
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
510 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures today will be similar to those from yesterday as
surface winds become southeasterly by this afternoon.  These winds
will bring an increase in low-level moisture.  An upper level trough
over southern California is approaching the region with shortwaves
moving over the area.  This increase in moisture and lift will
contribute to showers developing across the eastern Permian Basin
and Lower Trans Pecos this morning and thunderstorms developing
across the higher terrain later this afternoon.  Showers and
thunderstorms will spread eastward across the CWA on Saturday as the
upper trough gets closer.  The upper level trough will approach and
pass over the Southern Plains on Sunday with rain lingering across
the area.  There will be areas with CAPE values of over 1000 J/kg
and 0-6 km bulk shear will be near 50 kts so a strong to severe
storm cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon across the Lower Trans
Pecos and eastern Permian Basin.

On Monday, the upper level trough will move to the east of the
region with the precipitation moving out of the area as well.  A
cold front will move into the area on Monday on the backside of the
upper trough but this front will not have much impact on
temperatures as highs warm to above average.  Temperatures will
gradually increase through the middle of next week with upper level
ridging developing over the region.  Another upper trough is
expected to approach the Central/Northern Plains with a dryline
possibly developing across the CWA on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 74  58  76  58  /  10  10  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              73  58  77  60  /  20  10  30  40
CARLSBAD NM                75  56  77  53  /  10  30  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  79  60  78  62  /  20  10  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           77  58  78  60  /  10  20  40  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          72  52  71  53  /  20  40  50  20
HOBBS NM                   74  54  74  53  /   0  20  40  30
MARFA TX                   74  49  73  48  /  20  40  50  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  58  77  59  /  10  10  30  30
ODESSA TX                  75  58  77  59  /  10  10  30  30
WINK TX                    79  57  80  58  /  10  20  40  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03/80
001
FXUS64 KMAF 180535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings will affect TAF locations overnight and into the
morning hours after sunrise with possible IFR ceilings at KMAF.
Surface winds will gradually become southeast across the area
later this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing west of TAF routes could affect KCNM after 00Z

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Rain chances will increase this weekend, followed by much warmer
temperatures and little chance of rain next week.

An ua trough over the southern U.S. Plains will continue to translate
eastward this afternoon and will be replaced by an ua ridge Friday.
A weak cold front continues to push south through the region today
with modest cooling being felt the most to the north of Interstate
20.  The surface ridge behind the front will not push south
through the region aggressively, so only northern reaches of the
forecast area will see low temperatures slightly below normal tonight.
Low level moisture will begin to return to the region tonight on
southeasterly winds on the backside of the said surface ridge,
with this process continuing Friday due to height falls ahead of
an approaching southern stream ua trough.  Portions of the Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos could see isolated showers develop
late tonight, if not Friday morning as the first shortwave trough
ejecting ahead of the mentioned ua trough shears northeastward
over the area.  Suspect most locations will see nothing, so have
kept PoPs at a minimum.  A surface trough will develop over the
western reaches of the forecast area Friday afternoon as a
stronger shortwave trough impinges upon the area.  Have increased
PoPs in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains in particular Friday
afternoon as it appears low level moisture should increase enough
for the heated higher terrain to possibly provide a focus for
thunderstorm development. Instability will not be very good, so do
not think any severe storms will be in the offing.

Friday night, expect showers and thunderstorms to increase out west
along the surface trough, then move northeastward into the Upper
Trans Pecos and perhaps the Permian Basin Saturday.  The latest NAM
is more progressive bringing precipitation eastward, with most other
operational models keeping precipitation closer to the surface trough
which will remain over western portions of the forecast area through
Saturday.  Have split the difference somewhat, but have put the
best chances of rain for the Permian Basin and the rest of the
eastern County Warning area on Saturday night.  Shear will
increase as the ua trough approaches, but the amount of instability
available for strong to severe storms will hinge upon how fast the
rain moves east on Saturday.  That is, if the precipitation does
hang back along the surface trough through much of the day Saturday,
then there will be a better chance the eastern half or so of the
forecast area will have some heating, which will increase
instability and the potential for severe thunderstorms.  For now,
have made a mention of strong thunderstorms in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook with perhaps a severe storm or two until it
becomes clear how this will pan out.  The ua trough will linger
over the area, if not a little further north over the Texas
Panhandle Sunday.  Have kept PoPs over southeast New Mexico, and
the eastern Permian Basin for now, but these will have to be
expanded southward if the ua trough proves to be a bit deeper.

Rain chances will cease Sunday night with upper ridging taking over
across the southern Conus next week.  An ua trough, or cutoff low,
is expected to form over the northwest U.S. by mid next week then
move eastward across the northern/central U.S. Plains.  We will have
a dryline over the area, but unless the ua trough deepens more than
current progs indicate, we will likely stay dry.  What appears more
certain is temperatures warming well above normal.  Expect high
temps will rise around 10 degrees above normal Monday and Tuesday,
but will increase to around 15 degrees above normal, if not more,
Wednesday and Thursday.  In addition, fire weather concerns could be
on the increase as dry and windy conditions could develop Wednesday
onward.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03
047
FXUS64 KMAF 172336
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
Currently have NE winds across the region this evening and expect
winds to continue to veer to the east over the next several hours.
Low cigs currently hanging out over central TX but as winds become
more easterly, low level moisture will increase resulting in low cigs
at terminals by early morning Friday (roughly around 09-10Z). Have
kept mention of MVFR at all sites for now however forecast soundings
indicate ceilings could be lower with possibly some fog developing
at MAF and HOB for a couple of hours. Introduced IFR cigs at MAF but
no other site just yet. Will also hold off on mention of low vsbys
attm. Cloud deck should lift and scatter by 15-16Z Friday morning as
southeast winds return to the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Rain chances will increase this weekend, followed by much warmer
temperatures and little chance of rain next week.

An ua trough over the southern U.S. Plains will continue to translate
eastward this afternoon and will be replaced by an ua ridge Friday.
A weak cold front continues to push south through the region today
with modest cooling being felt the most to the north of Interstate
20.  The surface ridge behind the front will not push south
through the region aggressively, so only northern reaches of the
forecast area will see low temperatures slightly below normal tonight.
Low level moisture will begin to return to the region tonight on
southeasterly winds on the backside of the said surface ridge,
with this process continuing Friday due to height falls ahead of
an approaching southern stream ua trough.  Portions of the Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos could see isolated showers develop
late tonight, if not Friday morning as the first shortwave trough
ejecting ahead of the mentioned ua trough shears northeastward
over the area.  Suspect most locations will see nothing, so have
kept PoPs at a minimum.  A surface trough will develop over the
western reaches of the forecast area Friday afternoon as a
stronger shortwave trough impinges upon the area.  Have increased
PoPs in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains in particular Friday
afternoon as it appears low level moisture should increase enough
for the heated higher terrain to possibly provide a focus for
thunderstorm development. Instability will not be very good, so do
not think any severe storms will be in the offing.

Friday night, expect showers and thunderstorms to increase out west
along the surface trough, then move northeastward into the Upper
Trans Pecos and perhaps the Permian Basin Saturday.  The latest NAM
is more progressive bringing precipitation eastward, with most other
operational models keeping precipitation closer to the surface trough
which will remain over western portions of the forecast area through
Saturday.  Have split the difference somewhat, but have put the
best chances of rain for the Permian Basin and the rest of the
eastern County Warning area on Saturday night.  Shear will
increase as the ua trough approaches, but the amount of instability
available for strong to severe storms will hinge upon how fast the
rain moves east on Saturday.  That is, if the precipitation does
hang back along the surface trough through much of the day Saturday,
then there will be a better chance the eastern half or so of the
forecast area will have some heating, which will increase
instability and the potential for severe thunderstorms.  For now,
have made a mention of strong thunderstorms in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook with perhaps a severe storm or two until it
becomes clear how this will pan out.  The ua trough will linger
over the area, if not a little further north over the Texas
Panhandle Sunday.  Have kept PoPs over southeast New Mexico, and
the eastern Permian Basin for now, but these will have to be
expanded southward if the ua trough proves to be a bit deeper.

Rain chances will cease Sunday night with upper ridging taking over
across the southern Conus next week.  An ua trough, or cutoff low,
is expected to form over the northwest U.S. by mid next week then
move eastward across the northern/central U.S. Plains.  We will have
a dryline over the area, but unless the ua trough deepens more than
current progs indicate, we will likely stay dry.  What appears more
certain is temperatures warming well above normal.  Expect high
temps will rise around 10 degrees above normal Monday and Tuesday,
but will increase to around 15 degrees above normal, if not more,
Wednesday and Thursday.  In addition, fire weather concerns could be
on the increase as dry and windy conditions could develop Wednesday
onward.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27
289
FXUS64 KMAF 171835
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
135 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Rain chances will increase this weekend, followed by much warmer
temperatures and little chance of rain next week.

An ua trough over the southern U.S. Plains will continue to translate
eastward this afternoon and will be replaced by an ua ridge Friday.
A weak cold front continues to push south through the region today
with modest cooling being felt the most to the north of Interstate
20.  The surface ridge behind the front will not push south
through the region aggressively, so only northern reaches of the
forecast area will see low temperatures slightly below normal tonight.
Low level moisture will begin to return to the region tonight on
southeasterly winds on the backside of the said surface ridge,
with this process continuing Friday due to height falls ahead of
an approaching southern stream ua trough.  Portions of the Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos could see isolated showers develop
late tonight, if not Friday morning as the first shortwave trough
ejecting ahead of the mentioned ua trough shears northeastward
over the area.  Suspect most locations will see nothing, so have
kept PoPs at a minimum.  A surface trough will develop over the
western reaches of the forecast area Friday afternoon as a
stronger shortwave trough impinges upon the area.  Have increased
PoPs in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains in particular Friday
afternoon as it appears low level moisture should increase enough
for the heated higher terrain to possibly provide a focus for
thunderstorm development. Instability will not be very good, so do
not think any severe storms will be in the offing.

Friday night, expect showers and thunderstorms to increase out west
along the surface trough, then move northeastward into the Upper
Trans Pecos and perhaps the Permian Basin Saturday.  The latest NAM
is more progressive bringing precipitation eastward, with most other
operational models keeping precipitation closer to the surface trough
which will remain over western portions of the forecast area through
Saturday.  Have split the difference somewhat, but have put the
best chances of rain for the Permian Basin and the rest of the
eastern County Warning area on Saturday night.  Shear will
increase as the ua trough approaches, but the amount of instability
available for strong to severe storms will hinge upon how fast the
rain moves east on Saturday.  That is, if the precipitation does
hang back along the surface trough through much of the day Saturday,
then there will be a better chance the eastern half or so of the
forecast area will have some heating, which will increase
instability and the potential for severe thunderstorms.  For now,
have made a mention of strong thunderstorms in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook with perhaps a severe storm or two until it
becomes clear how this will pan out.  The ua trough will linger
over the area, if not a little further north over the Texas
Panhandle Sunday.  Have kept PoPs over southeast New Mexico, and
the eastern Permian Basin for now, but these will have to be
expanded southward if the ua trough proves to be a bit deeper.

Rain chances will cease Sunday night with upper ridging taking over
across the southern Conus next week.  An ua trough, or cutoff low,
is expected to form over the northwest U.S. by mid next week then
move eastward across the northern/central U.S. Plains.  We will have
a dryline over the area, but unless the ua trough deepens more than
current progs indicate, we will likely stay dry.  What appears more
certain is temperatures warming well above normal.  Expect high
temps will rise around 10 degrees above normal Monday and Tuesday,
but will increase to around 15 degrees above normal, if not more,
Wednesday and Thursday.  In addition, fire weather concerns could be
on the increase as dry and windy conditions could develop Wednesday
onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 48  77  58  75  /  10  10  10  40
BIG SPRING TX              52  77  59  77  /  10  10  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                47  79  54  77  /   0  10  30  40
DRYDEN TX                  60  78  62  79  /  10  10  10  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  79  60  77  /  10  10  20  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          46  75  52  71  /  10  20  40  50
HOBBS NM                   44  76  53  74  /   0   0  20  40
MARFA TX                   42  75  51  73  /  10  20  50  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    52  78  59  76  /  10  10  20  30
ODESSA TX                  53  78  58  76  /  10  10  20  30
WINK TX                    52  80  59  80  /   0  10  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/67
353
FXUS64 KMAF 171712
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1212 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through this evening. Cold front currently
moving slowly southeast through the Permian Basin of west Texas.
Behind this front expect northeast winds of generally 10 to 15 mph
through tonight. Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected to develop
around 09z tonight and continue through Friday morning. There
is some potential for IFR conditions to develop and later shifts
will monitor.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
At 12Z, a cold front extended from Snyder to MAF to PEQ. This front
should pass through FST by 14Z. Winds behind the front are expected
to be gusty, particularly around CNM through mid morning. Winds
are expected to decrease and veer to northeast and east this
afternoon and evening, at generally 12 knots or less.

VFR conditions and no significant weather are expected through
06Z. MVFR and occasionally IFR conditions are expected to develop
across southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas terminals between
06Z and 12Z due to lowering cloud ceilings.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A cold front is currently coming into the area starting in southeast
New Mexico where winds are gusting out of the north to northwest.
This front is a result of an upper level trough that is moving over
the Southern Plains.  The front will continue moving into the area
through the morning and early afternoon hours which will result in
cooler temperatures for this afternoon.  A shortwave moving near the
area may provide enough lift to produce thunderstorms across the
Western Low Rolling Plains this afternoon.

The upper trough will pass to the east of the region on Friday, but
there will still be upper lift over the area so showers will be
possible Friday morning across far eastern sections of the CWA.
Another upper level trough will move toward the region from southern
California on Friday.  Upper level lift will start moving over far
western sections of the CWA so thunderstorms will be possible in
these areas Friday afternoon.  The upper trough will move closer to
the region on Saturday resulting in shortwaves moving over the
area.  This upper level lift will allow for thunderstorms to develop
areawide by Saturday afternoon.  An isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across the Lower Trans Pecos as
CAPE and shear values will be greater there.  The precipitation will
gradually move out of the area on Sunday as the upper trough starts
to move to the east of the region.

A surface trough will develop in the wake of the upper trough
resulting in a significant warm up on Sunday.  A gradual warm up
will occur next week as an upper level ridge develops over the
region.  This warm up will be enhanced on Wednesday as a surface
trough strengthens across the area in advance of another upper
trough.  It appears that the upper trough will move to the north of
the region on Thursday but the track is uncertain as the models are
quite different in the placement of this trough.  Left extended
forecast dry for now until better model agreement is reached.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71  52  76  58  /  10   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              70  54  76  59  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                74  48  78  54  /   0   0  10  30
DRYDEN TX                  82  59  77  62  /  10  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           79  55  79  60  /   0  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  46  74  52  /   0   0  20  30
HOBBS NM                   70  47  75  53  /   0   0   0  20
MARFA TX                   75  42  74  51  /   0   0  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  54  77  59  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  73  54  77  58  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    79  53  79  59  /   0   0  10  20

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/80
481
FXUS64 KMAF 171100
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
At 12Z, a cold front extended from Snyder to MAF to PEQ. This front
should pass through FST by 14Z. Winds behind the front are expected
to be gusty, particularly around CNM through mid morning. Winds
are expected to decrease and veer to northeast and east this
afternoon and evening, at generally 12 knots or less.

VFR conditions and no significant weather are expected through
06Z. MVFR and occasionally IFR conditions are expected to develop
across southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas terminals between
06Z and 12Z due to lowering cloud ceilings.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A cold front is currently coming into the area starting in southeast
New Mexico where winds are gusting out of the north to northwest.
This front is a result of an upper level trough that is moving over
the Southern Plains.  The front will continue moving into the area
through the morning and early afternoon hours which will result in
cooler temperatures for this afternoon.  A shortwave moving near the
area may provide enough lift to produce thunderstorms across the
Western Low Rolling Plains this afternoon.

The upper trough will pass to the east of the region on Friday, but
there will still be upper lift over the area so showers will be
possible Friday morning across far eastern sections of the CWA.
Another upper level trough will move toward the region from southern
California on Friday.  Upper level lift will start moving over far
western sections of the CWA so thunderstorms will be possible in
these areas Friday afternoon.  The upper trough will move closer to
the region on Saturday resulting in shortwaves moving over the
area.  This upper level lift will allow for thunderstorms to develop
areawide by Saturday afternoon.  An isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across the Lower Trans Pecos as
CAPE and shear values will be greater there.  The precipitation will
gradually move out of the area on Sunday as the upper trough starts
to move to the east of the region.

A surface trough will develop in the wake of the upper trough
resulting in a significant warm up on Sunday.  A gradual warm up
will occur next week as an upper level ridge develops over the
region.  This warm up will be enhanced on Wednesday as a surface
trough strengthens across the area in advance of another upper
trough.  It appears that the upper trough will move to the north of
the region on Thursday but the track is uncertain as the models are
quite different in the placement of this trough.  Left extended
forecast dry for now until better model agreement is reached.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05
542
FXUS64 KMAF 171008
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
507 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A cold front is currently coming into the area starting in southeast
New Mexico where winds are gusting out of the north to northwest.
This front is a result of an upper level trough that is moving over
the Southern Plains.  The front will continue moving into the area
through the morning and early afternoon hours which will result in
cooler temperatures for this afternoon.  A shortwave moving near the
area may provide enough lift to produce thunderstorms across the
Western Low Rolling Plains this afternoon.

The upper trough will pass to the east of the region on Friday, but
there will still be upper lift over the area so showers will be
possible Friday morning across far eastern sections of the CWA.
Another upper level trough will move toward the region from southern
California on Friday.  Upper level lift will start moving over far
western sections of the CWA so thunderstorms will be possible in
these areas Friday afternoon.  The upper trough will move closer to
the region on Saturday resulting in shortwaves moving over the
area.  This upper level lift will allow for thunderstorms to develop
areawide by Saturday afternoon.  An isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across the Lower Trans Pecos as
CAPE and shear values will be greater there.  The precipitation will
gradually move out of the area on Sunday as the upper trough starts
to move to the east of the region.

A surface trough will develop in the wake of the upper trough
resulting in a significant warm up on Sunday.  A gradual warm up
will occur next week as an upper level ridge develops over the
region.  This warm up will be enhanced on Wednesday as a surface
trough strengthens across the area in advance of another upper
trough.  It appears that the upper trough will move to the north of
the region on Thursday but the track is uncertain as the models are
quite different in the placement of this trough.  Left extended
forecast dry for now until better model agreement is reached.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71  52  76  58  /  10   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              70  54  76  59  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                74  48  78  54  /   0   0  10  30
DRYDEN TX                  82  59  77  62  /  10  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           79  55  79  60  /   0  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  46  74  52  /   0   0  20  30
HOBBS NM                   70  47  75  53  /   0   0   0  20
MARFA TX                   75  42  74  51  /   0   0  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  54  77  59  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  73  54  77  58  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    79  53  79  59  /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/80
814
FXUS64 KMAF 170458
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1158 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and no significant weather are expected at
southeast New Mexico and southwest terminals through Thursday
evening.

Shortly before 05Z, a cold front was pushing through eastern New
Mexico, located just north of a line from Artesia to Crossroads.
This front will push through CNM, HOB, INK, MAF, and PEQ by 12Z
and FST by 18Z shifting winds to north and northeast. Winds are
expected to remain elevated and gusty at times across the Permian
Basin until the front approaches around 12Z. A strong low level
jet will bring low level wind shear to MAF, HOB and INK terminals
overnight. Though some low cloudiness is expected behind the
front, low ceilings are presently expected to remain east of MAF.
Winds will veer to east and northeast across the region Thursday
afternoon and evening. By 06Z, low clouds may push into the
region from the east, affecting MAF and FST by 06Z. For this
TAF issuance, will keep low clouds scattered though ceilings are
expected after 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Conditions will remain VFR with a few high clouds.  A gusty south
wind will continue through the evening as a surface low remains
over eastern NM.  A cold front will blow into the area late
tonight/early Thursday with a gusty north wind.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A lee surface trough is intensifying ahead of a broad and weak
upper level trough late this afternoon. The upper level trough
will track across the plains tonight and Thursday and drive a dry
cold front south through the forecast area Thursday morning. High
temperatures will cool a few degrees behind this front Thursday
to slightly below normal values most areas.

Deep southwesterly flow aloft will quickly develop by Friday and
continue Saturday ahead of and along a southern stream upper
level storm system. This trough and associated significant lead
shortwave will be close enough by Friday night for mention of a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across southeast New
Mexico and extreme west Texas west of the Pecos River.

By Saturday the upper level trough/low is expected to be across
Arizona and New Mexico. Large scale lift will increase significantly
by early in the day as heights fall in conjunction with an approaching
upper level speed max. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop across western sections Saturday morning and
slowly advance eastward Saturday afternoon and evening toward the
Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos region as the upper system
approaches. Continued the mention of a chance of showers and
thunderstorms most areas Saturday and Saturday evening. At this
time do not think there will be significant severe weather
outbreak due to less than impressive instability with a retreating
surface high still in the picture with a broad upper trough. (no
well defined dryline). Moist southeasterly low level flow will
keep temperatures a little below normal as well.

The upper level system will weaken and pass by to the north
Sunday and allow a surface trough to move east toward the eastern
Permian Basin Sunday afternoon and evening. Kept the slight
chance of thunderstorm going across the extreme eastern Basin
along and east of the surface trough with temperatures warming to
above normal values.

Next Monday and Tuesday look dry and warm behind this system
with an upper level ridge over the forecast area. This ridge
is forecast to move east later Tuesday and could set up
the Permian Basin for the possibility of dryline thunderstorms
next Wednesday with southwesterly flow aloft in place.

FIRE WEATHER...
Southwest 20 foot winds of 20 to 30 mph sustained will prevail in
the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon and evening.  Since RHs
around 5 percent will persist there, the Red Flag Warning will
remain in effect.  Indications are 20 foot winds will continue well
into the night over the Guadalupe Mountains, so will extend the RFW
until 17/09Z.

Warmer temperatures are prevailing along and west of the Pecos River
this afternoon, with temps a few degrees cooler over the Permian
Basin.  A tight surface pressure gradient is encompassing the
Permian Basin, hence 20 foot wind speeds are 15 to 20 mph sustained
in many locations there, but only 10 to 15 mph over the Upper Trans
Pecos and locations further west and southwest.  The gusty southerly
winds over the Permian Basin are beginning to bring in a little low
level moisture, which is keeping RH/s near 15 percent or higher,
with RHs of 5 to 10 percent further west.  A few locations in the
central and northern Permian Basin could reach critical levels, but
the duration is not expected to be long enough for a Red Flag
Warning.  20 foot winds will stay gusty through the evening over the
Permian Basin, but cooling temperatures and increasing moisture will
allow RHs to rise through the evening and night.  Recovery will be
poor along and west of a Maljamar to Big Bend line, with good or
better further east.

A cold front will move south into the area Thursday.  Minimum
afternoon RHs will generally stay above 15 percent over all but
Brewster and Presidio counties.  Although 20 foot wind speeds may
rise to around 20 mph sustained late Thursday afternoon and early
evening in these areas, the duration does not appear to be long
enough for critical fire weather conditions.  Fire weather concerns
will not be as great Friday and through the weekend as low level
moisture will spread over the region, and there will be a chance of
a wetting rain, especially Friday night through Saturday night.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 3 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 3 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

05
305
FXUS64 KMAF 162351
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
651 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Conditions will remain VFR with a few high clouds.  A gusty south
wind will continue through the evening as a surface low remains
over eastern NM.  A cold front will blow into the area late
tonight/early Thursday with a gusty north wind.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A lee surface trough is intensifying ahead of a broad and weak
upper level trough late this afternoon. The upper level trough
will track across the plains tonight and Thursday and drive a dry
cold front south through the forecast area Thursday morning. High
temperatures will cool a few degrees behind this front Thursday
to slightly below normal values most areas.

Deep southwesterly flow aloft will quickly develop by Friday and
continue Saturday ahead of and along a southern stream upper
level storm system. This trough and associated significant lead
shortwave will be close enough by Friday night for mention of a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across southeast New
Mexico and extreme west Texas west of the Pecos River.

By Saturday the upper level trough/low is expected to be across
Arizona and New Mexico. Large scale lift will increase significantly
by early in the day as heights fall in conjunction with an approaching
upper level speed max. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop across western sections Saturday morning and
slowly advance eastward Saturday afternoon and evening toward the
Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos region as the upper system
approaches. Continued the mention of a chance of showers and
thunderstorms most areas Saturday and Saturday evening. At this
time do not think there will be significant severe weather
outbreak due to less than impressive instability with a retreating
surface high still in the picture with a broad upper trough. (no
well defined dryline). Moist southeasterly low level flow will
keep temperatures a little below normal as well.

The upper level system will weaken and pass by to the north
Sunday and allow a surface trough to move east toward the eastern
Permian Basin Sunday afternoon and evening. Kept the slight
chance of thunderstorm going across the extreme eastern Basin
along and east of the surface trough with temperatures warming to
above normal values.

Next Monday and Tuesday look dry and warm behind this system
with an upper level ridge over the forecast area. This ridge
is forecast to move east later Tuesday and could set up
the Permian Basin for the possibility of dryline thunderstorms
next Wednesday with southwesterly flow aloft in place.

FIRE WEATHER...
Southwest 20 foot winds of 20 to 30 mph sustained will prevail in
the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon and evening.  Since RHs
around 5 percent will persist there, the Red Flag Warning will
remain in effect.  Indications are 20 foot winds will continue well
into the night over the Guadalupe Mountains, so will extend the RFW
until 17/09Z.

Warmer temperatures are prevailing along and west of the Pecos River
this afternoon, with temps a few degrees cooler over the Permian
Basin.  A tight surface pressure gradient is encompassing the
Permian Basin, hence 20 foot wind speeds are 15 to 20 mph sustained
in many locations there, but only 10 to 15 mph over the Upper Trans
Pecos and locations further west and southwest.  The gusty southerly
winds over the Permian Basin are beginning to bring in a little low
level moisture, which is keeping RH/s near 15 percent or higher,
with RHs of 5 to 10 percent further west.  A few locations in the
central and northern Permian Basin could reach critical levels, but
the duration is not expected to be long enough for a Red Flag
Warning.  20 foot winds will stay gusty through the evening over the
Permian Basin, but cooling temperatures and increasing moisture will
allow RHs to rise through the evening and night.  Recovery will be
poor along and west of a Maljamar to Big Bend line, with good or
better further east.

A cold front will move south into the area Thursday.  Minimum
afternoon RHs will generally stay above 15 percent over all but
Brewster and Presidio counties.  Although 20 foot wind speeds may
rise to around 20 mph sustained late Thursday afternoon and early
evening in these areas, the duration does not appear to be long
enough for critical fire weather conditions.  Fire weather concerns
will not be as great Friday and through the weekend as low level
moisture will spread over the region, and there will be a chance of
a wetting rain, especially Friday night through Saturday night.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 3 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 3 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$
976
FXUS64 KMAF 161939
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
239 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A lee surface trough is intensifying ahead of a broad and weak
upper level trough late this afternoon. The upper level trough
will track across the plains tonight and Thursday and drive a dry
cold front south through the forecast area Thursday morning. High
temperatures will cool a few degrees behind this front Thursday
to slightly below normal values most areas.

Deep southwesterly flow aloft will quickly develop by Friday and
continue Saturday ahead of and along a southern stream upper
level storm system. This trough and associated significant lead
shortwave will be close enough by Friday night for mention of a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across southeast New
Mexico and extreme west Texas west of the Pecos River.

By Saturday the upper level trough/low is expected to be across
Arizona and New Mexico. Large scale lift will increase significantly
by early in the day as heights fall in conjunction with an approaching
upper level speed max. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop across western sections Saturday morning and
slowly advance eastward Saturday afternoon and evening toward the
Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos region as the upper system
approaches. Continued the mention of a chance of showers and
thunderstorms most areas Saturday and Saturday evening. At this
time do not think there will be significant severe weather
outbreak due to less than impressive instability with a retreating
surface high still in the picture with a broad upper trough. (no
well defined dryline). Moist southeasterly low level flow will
keep temperatures a little below normal as well.

The upper level system will weaken and pass by to the north
Sunday and allow a surface trough to move east toward the eastern
Permian Basin Sunday afternoon and evening. Kept the slight
chance of thunderstorm going across the extreme eastern Basin
along and east of the surface trough with temperatures warming to
above normal values.

Next Monday and Tuesday look dry and warm behind this system
with an upper level ridge over the forecast area. This ridge
is forecast to move east later Tuesday and could set up
the Permian Basin for the possibility of dryline thunderstorms
next Wednesday with southwesterly flow aloft in place.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Southwest 20 foot winds of 20 to 30 mph sustained will prevail in
the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon and evening.  Since RHs
around 5 percent will persist there, the Red Flag Warning will
remain in effect.  Indications are 20 foot winds will continue well
into the night over the Guadalupe Mountains, so will extend the RFW
until 17/09Z.

Warmer temperatures are prevailing along and west of the Pecos River
this afternoon, with temps a few degrees cooler over the Permian
Basin.  A tight surface pressure gradient is encompassing the
Permian Basin, hence 20 foot wind speeds are 15 to 20 mph sustained
in many locations there, but only 10 to 15 mph over the Upper Trans
Pecos and locations further west and southwest.  The gusty southerly
winds over the Permian Basin are beginning to bring in a little low
level moisture, which is keeping RH/s near 15 percent or higher,
with RHs of 5 to 10 percent further west.  A few locations in the
central and northern Permian Basin could reach critical levels, but
the duration is not expected to be long enough for a Red Flag
Warning.  20 foot winds will stay gusty through the evening over the
Permian Basin, but cooling temperatures and increasing moisture will
allow RHs to rise through the evening and night.  Recovery will be
poor along and west of a Maljamar to Big Bend line, with good or
better further east.

A cold front will move south into the area Thursday.  Minimum
afternoon RHs will generally stay above 15 percent over all but
Brewster and Presidio counties.  Although 20 foot wind speeds may
rise to around 20 mph sustained late Thursday afternoon and early
evening in these areas, the duration does not appear to be long
enough for critical fire weather conditions.  Fire weather concerns
will not be as great Friday and through the weekend as low level
moisture will spread over the region, and there will be a chance of
a wetting rain, especially Friday night through Saturday night.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 48  73  49  75  /  10  10   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              49  72  51  76  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                50  74  46  78  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  53  82  57  80  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           49  80  54  81  /  10   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  71  45  73  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   46  71  44  75  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   36  73  42  76  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    51  75  51  76  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  52  75  50  74  /  10  10   0  10
WINK TX                    47  77  51  79  /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 3 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 3 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

67/12
528
FXUS64 KMAF 161716
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty southerly winds will affect all TAF sites through this
afternoon.  A low level jet will likely keep winds gusty through the
evening at all but Carlsbad and Pecos.  MVFR ceilings will develop
over central Texas overnight, but should stay east of all West Texas
TAF sites.  A cold front will move into the area Thursday morning,
but expect VFR conditions to prevail.  67

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014/

Temperatures this morning are much warmer than those from yesterday
with stronger winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies.  High
temperatures this afternoon will warm up to near normal as a surface
trough develops across the area.  A broad upper level trough will
move over the Central/Northern Plains.  As this upper trough moves
to the north of the region, it will send a weak cold front through
the area on Thursday resulting in slightly cooler temperatures.

Another upper trough over southern California will approach the
region on Friday.  Low level moisture will increase across the area
beginning Friday morning resulting in a slight chance of
thunderstorms across the far eastern CWA.  Thunderstorms will be
possible areawide but most likely across the higher elevations of
southeast New Mexico and West Texas by Friday afternoon as upper
level lift increases over the region.  As the upper trough
approaches and moves over the region on Saturday, chances for
showers and thunderstorms will increases as upper level lift and
moisture increase.  Severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday
afternoon with CAPE values over 1000 J/kg and 0 to 6 km bulk shear
values near 50 kts.

Thunderstorms will move out of the CWA on Sunday with temperatures
warming up as a surface trough strengthens across the area.  A
portion of the upper level trough may stay over the area and provide
enough lift for thunderstorms to develop on Monday but do not have
much confidence in this happening.  The models develop another upper
level trough that moves toward the region by the middle part of next
week.  Temperatures will remain above normal for next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 10 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 10 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

05/80
584
FXUS64 KMAF 161043
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
543 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through early morning Thursday with
no significant weather expected. Winds will be south to southeast
across much of the area with winds approaching 20 knots and gusty
at times at MAF and FST. A surface low and cold front will move
southward through southeast New Mexico this evening bringing winds
initially to the west and southwest at CNM and PEQ. A cold front
will shift winds to the north shortly after 06Z at CNM and push as
far south as PEQ and MAF by 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures this morning are much warmer than those from yesterday
with stronger winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies.  High
temperatures this afternoon will warm up to near normal as a surface
trough develops across the area.  A broad upper level trough will
move over the Central/Northern Plains.  As this upper trough moves
to the north of the region, it will send a weak cold front through
the area on Thursday resulting in slightly cooler temperatures.

Another upper trough over southern California will approach the
region on Friday.  Low level moisture will increase across the area
beginning Friday morning resulting in a slight chance of
thunderstorms across the far eastern CWA.  Thunderstorms will be
possible areawide but most likely across the higher elevations of
southeast New Mexico and West Texas by Friday afternoon as upper
level lift increases over the region.  As the upper trough
approaches and moves over the region on Saturday, chances for
showers and thunderstorms will increases as upper level lift and
moisture increase.  Severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday
afternoon with CAPE values over 1000 J/kg and 0 to 6 km bulk shear
values near 50 kts.

Thunderstorms will move out of the CWA on Sunday with temperatures
warming up as a surface trough strengthens across the area.  A
portion of the upper level trough may stay over the area and provide
enough lift for thunderstorms to develop on Monday but do not have
much confidence in this happening.  The models develop another upper
level trough that moves toward the region by the middle part of next
week.  Temperatures will remain above normal for next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

05
790
FXUS64 KMAF 160958
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
457 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures this morning are much warmer than those from yesterday
with stronger winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies.  High
temperatures this afternoon will warm up to near normal as a surface
trough develops across the area.  A broad upper level trough will
move over the Central/Northern Plains.  As this upper trough moves
to the north of the region, it will send a weak cold front through
the area on Thursday resulting in slightly cooler temperatures.

Another upper trough over southern California will approach the
region on Friday.  Low level moisture will increase across the area
beginning Friday morning resulting in a slight chance of
thunderstorms across the far eastern CWA.  Thunderstorms will be
possible areawide but most likely across the higher elevations of
southeast New Mexico and West Texas by Friday afternoon as upper
level lift increases over the region.  As the upper trough
approaches and moves over the region on Saturday, chances for
showers and thunderstorms will increases as upper level lift and
moisture increase.  Severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday
afternoon with CAPE values over 1000 J/kg and 0 to 6 km bulk shear
values near 50 kts.

Thunderstorms will move out of the CWA on Sunday with temperatures
warming up as a surface trough strengthens across the area.  A
portion of the upper level trough may stay over the area and provide
enough lift for thunderstorms to develop on Monday but do not have
much confidence in this happening.  The models develop another upper
level trough that moves toward the region by the middle part of next
week.  Temperatures will remain above normal for next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  48  72  52  /   0  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              78  49  71  54  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                86  48  73  49  /   0  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  76  53  81  60  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           84  50  78  57  /   0  10   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          81  48  70  48  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   79  46  70  47  /   0  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   78  39  72  45  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  49  74  54  /   0  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  77  49  74  53  /   0  10  10  10
WINK TX                    85  49  76  54  /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Noon MDT today through this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Noon MDT today through this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

05/80
666
FXUS64 KMAF 160431
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1131 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas through Wednesday evening with no significant
weather expected. Winds will generally be south to southeast
across the area with stronger winds near 20 knots and gusty at
eastern terminals including MAF and FST. As a surface low and cold
front push south through eastern New Mexico, winds at CNM and PEQ
will become southwesterly but light in the evening. A cold front
switching winds to the north will be approaching CNM and HOB
terminals at 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
VFR with a few clouds moving in from the west.  Southerly winds
will drop off some overnight but pick back up by midday tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A warming trend is expected to continue tonight and Wednesday due
to a lee surface trough intensifying ahead of a broad and weak
upper level trough. The aforementioned upper level trough is
forecast to track across the plains early Thursday and drive a dry
cold front south through the forecast area Thursday morning. High
temperatures will cool several degrees behind this front Thursday
to below normal values most areas.

Deep southwesterly flow aloft will quickly develop by Friday and
continue Saturday ahead of and along a southern stream upper
level storm system. The trough and an associated significant lead
shortwave will be close enough by Friday afternoon for mention of
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across extreme
western sections of southeast New Mexico and extreme west Texas.
The lead wave is forecast to track across the forecast area Friday
night so will include a slight chance to a chance of showers
and thunderstorms across the entire forecast area.

Saturday could be the first spring convective event. The main
upper level storm system will approach during the afternoon and
lift and instability will increase significantly ahead of a
dryline. Looking for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms to
develop along the dryline during the day and move east toward the
eastern Permian Basin in the evening with some potential for an
mesoscale system to develop. For now went with mainly chance
pops in the forecast area with the highest pops in the eastern
Basin Saturday evening. The upper level trough will pass by
later Saturday night with decreasing chances of precipitation
Sunday.

Beyond Sunday kept a dry forecast and went with a split in
guidance temperatures due to significant differences between the
models in the pattern aloft with temperatures expected to be
a few degrees above normal. Another storm system may impact
the area by next Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Cool and dry conditions will persist over the region this afternoon
with most locations seeing minimum afternoon RHs around 10 to 15
percent.  Southerly 20 foot winds of 15 to 25 mph will persist over
portions of the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains
until around sunset, so elevated fire weather conditions are
expected to continue through 7 pm MDT.  Even though temperatures
will drop near or below normal levels tonight, recovery will be poor
to fair in most areas.

The surface pressure gradient will tighten over the region tonight
and Wednesday, with most locations seeing at least 15 to 20 mph
sustained, southerly 20 foot winds Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures will warm to near normal levels Wednesday with minimum
afternoon RH/s dropping to 7 to 15 percent along and west of a
Snyder to Midland to Sanderson line.  Southwesterly 20 foot winds of
at least 15 to 25 mph are expected to occur in the Guadalupe
Mountains.  Since it is not clear cut whether these winds will be a
little stronger or not, will continue with the Fire Weather Watch
for the Guadalupes Wednesday afternoon and evening.  It does not
appear wind speeds will be strong enough, long enough, for critical
fire weather conditions over the rest of the forecast area.  The
Haines Index will be high over northern portions of the area
Wednesday afternoon, and over all of the forecast area Wednesday
night.  After poor to fair recovery along and west of a Maljamar to
Pecos to Big Bend line Wednesday night, a cold front will push south
over the area Thursday.  Northerly winds of 15 to 25 mph are
expected behind the front, but RH/s will stay above 15 percent in
the cooler air.  Portions of the Presidio Valley and Big Bend will
see RH/s drop to 10 to 15 percent Thursday afternoon.  However, 20
foot wind speeds will not be strong enough for critical fire weather
conditions.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

05
911
FXUS64 KMAF 152332
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
632 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with a few clouds moving in from the west.  Southerly winds
will drop off some overnight but pick back up by midday tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A warming trend is expected to continue tonight and Wednesday due
to a lee surface trough intensifying ahead of a broad and weak
upper level trough. The aforementioned upper level trough is
forecast to track across the plains early Thursday and drive a dry
cold front south through the forecast area Thursday morning. High
temperatures will cool several degrees behind this front Thursday
to below normal values most areas.

Deep southwesterly flow aloft will quickly develop by Friday and
continue Saturday ahead of and along a southern stream upper
level storm system. The trough and an associated significant lead
shortwave will be close enough by Friday afternoon for mention of
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across extreme
western sections of southeast New Mexico and extreme west Texas.
The lead wave is forecast to track across the forecast area Friday
night so will include a slight chance to a chance of showers
and thunderstorms across the entire forecast area.

Saturday could be the first spring convective event. The main
upper level storm system will approach during the afternoon and
lift and instability will increase significantly ahead of a
dryline. Looking for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms to
develop along the dryline during the day and move east toward the
eastern Permian Basin in the evening with some potential for an
mesoscale system to develop. For now went with mainly chance
pops in the forecast area with the highest pops in the eastern
Basin Saturday evening. The upper level trough will pass by
later Saturday night with decreasing chances of precipitation
Sunday.

Beyond Sunday kept a dry forecast and went with a split in
guidance temperatures due to significant differences between the
models in the pattern aloft with temperatures expected to be
a few degrees above normal. Another storm system may impact
the area by next Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Cool and dry conditions will persist over the region this afternoon
with most locations seeing minimum afternoon RHs around 10 to 15
percent.  Southerly 20 foot winds of 15 to 25 mph will persist over
portions of the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains
until around sunset, so elevated fire weather conditions are
expected to continue through 7 pm MDT.  Even though temperatures
will drop near or below normal levels tonight, recovery will be poor
to fair in most areas.

The surface pressure gradient will tighten over the region tonight
and Wednesday, with most locations seeing at least 15 to 20 mph
sustained, southerly 20 foot winds Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures will warm to near normal levels Wednesday with minimum
afternoon RH/s dropping to 7 to 15 percent along and west of a
Snyder to Midland to Sanderson line.  Southwesterly 20 foot winds of
at least 15 to 25 mph are expected to occur in the Guadalupe
Mountains.  Since it is not clear cut whether these winds will be a
little stronger or not, will continue with the Fire Weather Watch
for the Guadalupes Wednesday afternoon and evening.  It does not
appear wind speeds will be strong enough, long enough, for critical
fire weather conditions over the rest of the forecast area.  The
Haines Index will be high over northern portions of the area
Wednesday afternoon, and over all of the forecast area Wednesday
night.  After poor to fair recovery along and west of a Maljamar to
Pecos to Big Bend line Wednesday night, a cold front will push south
over the area Thursday.  Northerly winds of 15 to 25 mph are
expected behind the front, but RH/s will stay above 15 percent in
the cooler air.  Portions of the Presidio Valley and Big Bend will
see RH/s drop to 10 to 15 percent Thursday afternoon.  However, 20
foot wind speeds will not be strong enough for critical fire weather
conditions.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$
460
FXUS64 KMAF 151955
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
255 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A warming trend is expected to continue tonight and Wednesday due
to a lee surface trough intensifying ahead of a broad and weak
upper level trough. The aforementioned upper level trough is
forecast to track across the plains early Thursday and drive a dry
cold front south through the forecast area Thursday morning. High
temperatures will cool several degrees behind this front Thursday
to below normal values most areas.

Deep southwesterly flow aloft will quickly develop by Friday and
continue Saturday ahead of and along a southern stream upper
level storm system. The trough and an associated significant lead
shortwave will be close enough by Friday afternoon for mention of
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across extreme
western sections of southeast New Mexico and extreme west Texas.
The lead wave is forecast to track across the forecast area Friday
night so will include a slight chance to a chance of showers
and thunderstorms across the entire forecast area.

Saturday could be the first spring convective event. The main
upper level storm system will approach during the afternoon and
lift and instability will increase significantly ahead of a
dryline. Looking for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms to
develop along the dryline during the day and move east toward the
eastern Permian Basin in the evening with some potential for an
mesoscale system to develop. For now went with mainly chance
pops in the forecast area with the highest pops in the eastern
Basin Saturday evening. The upper level trough will pass by
later Saturday night with decreasing chances of precipitation
Sunday.

Beyond Sunday kept a dry forecast and went with a split in
guidance temperatures due to significant differences between the
models in the pattern aloft with temperatures expected to be
a few degrees above normal. Another storm system may impact
the area by next Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cool and dry conditions will persist over the region this afternoon
with most locations seeing minimum afternoon RHs around 10 to 15
percent.  Southerly 20 foot winds of 15 to 25 mph will persist over
portions of the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains
until around sunset, so elevated fire weather conditions are
expected to continue through 7 pm MDT.  Even though temperatures
will drop near or below normal levels tonight, recovery will be poor
to fair in most areas.

The surface pressure gradient will tighten over the region tonight
and Wednesday, with most locations seeing at least 15 to 20 mph
sustained, southerly 20 foot winds Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures will warm to near normal levels Wednesday with minimum
afternoon RH/s dropping to 7 to 15 percent along and west of a
Snyder to Midland to Sanderson line.  Southwesterly 20 foot winds of
at least 15 to 25 mph are expected to occur in the Guadalupe
Mountains.  Since it is not clear cut whether these winds will be a
little stronger or not, will continue with the Fire Weather Watch
for the Guadalupes Wednesday afternoon and evening.  It does not
appear wind speeds will be strong enough, long enough, for critical
fire weather conditions over the rest of the forecast area.  The
Haines Index will be high over northern portions of the area
Wednesday afternoon, and over all of the forecast area Wednesday
night.  After poor to fair recovery along and west of a Maljamar to
Pecos to Big Bend line Wednesday night, a cold front will push south
over the area Thursday.  Northerly winds of 15 to 25 mph are
expected behind the front, but RH/s will stay above 15 percent in
the cooler air.  Portions of the Presidio Valley and Big Bend will
see RH/s drop to 10 to 15 percent Thursday afternoon.  However, 20
foot wind speeds will not be strong enough for critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 40  78  48  73  /   0   0  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              39  78  48  73  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                40  87  48  73  /   0   0  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  42  78  53  82  /   0   0  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           46  86  49  78  /   0   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          46  82  48  72  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   38  80  46  70  /   0   0  10   0
MARFA TX                   28  78  38  74  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    41  78  48  74  /   0   0  10   0
ODESSA TX                  43  77  51  74  /   0   0  10   0
WINK TX                    39  85  52  76  /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

67/12
051
FXUS64 KMAF 151710
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1210 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
Gusty southeast to south winds will stay up around 10 to 15kt
sustained for the most part during the forecast period due to a low
level jet tonight and a persistent, and fairly tight surface
pressure gradient, except for temporary post sunset, and sunrise,
lulls.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$
006
FXUS64 KMAF 151358
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
858 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to cancel the Freeze Warning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures are rising above freezing in most locations as of
15/14Z.  Therefore, will go ahead and cancel the remainder of the
Freeze Warning.  High temperatures this afternoon will rise into the
60s and 70s, roughly 10 to 15 degrees below normal.  Forecast
temperatures look to be in good shape, so there will be no other
changes at this time.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to issue a Fire Danger Statement for the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER...

Dry ambient conditions are prevailing over the forecast area this
morning, although recovery in most locations is fair to good.
Temperatures will warm later today, but remain below normal for mid
April.  Despite the cool temperatures, minimum afternoon RHs will
drop to 10 to 15 percent everywhere with some locations along the
Trans Pecos in West Texas dropping into the single digits.  The
surface pressure gradient will begin to tighten over the region
this afternoon, especially over southeast New Mexico.  Therefore,
think 20 foot winds will rise to 15 to around 20 mph sustained over
the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains.  A few
locations may hit critical fire weather criteria, but do not think
any locations will have these conditions for 3 hours or more.  Have
issued a Fire Danger Statement for the above areas for this
afternoon.  Conditions are still looking favorable Wednesday for
critical fire weather conditions in the Guadalupe Mountains, so
will leave the Fire Weather Watch alone.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.  Light and
variable winds will increase in strength out of the south by this
afternoon.  Some gusts will be likely during the afternoon hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

After a cold start this morning, temperatures will begin to
rebound with temperatures near seasonal norms for the next several
days. A weak cold front moving through the area Thursday will hold
temperatures back slightly with gradual warming resuming through
the weekend.

Models in agreement concerning shortwave kicking out across the
area ahead of trough pushing through the Southwest on Friday.
Though instability is limited Friday, should see at least isolated to
possibly scattered showers and thunderstorms initiating in the
mountains and moving northeast overnight. With approach of upper
trough on Saturday and Saturday evening and increasing low level
moisture, looking at greater instability on Saturday and greater
precipitation chances, particularly over southeast New Mexico as
well as the western and northern Permian Basin.

Model agreement breaks down after the weekend with the ECMWF
trending toward a ridge building over the area while the GFS digs
another trough into the southwest bringing a southwest flow aloft
to the area. Keeping rain chances low for the time being Sunday
through Wednesday. The warming trend is expected to continue into
next week.

FIRE WEATHER...

With warming temperatures and low dewpoints, relative humidities will
drop to 5 to 15 percent over southeast New Mexico and a large
portion of southwest Texas generally west of a line from Lamesa to
Sanderson and the Big Bend area on Wednesday. Winds across most of
this area will be 15 to 20 mph and gusty resulting in the
possibility of brief critical conditions Wednesday afternoon
through mid-evening. In the Guadalupe Mountains, winds may exceed
20 mph with higher gusts for an extended period of time with
relative humidity dropping to around 5 percent. Due to the
possibility of critical fire weather conditions over the Guadalupe
Mountains, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the Guadalupe
Mountains from 1 PM CDT (Noon MDT) to 10 PM CDT (9 PM MDT) Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  40  78  47  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              65  39  76  50  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                68  40  87  51  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  68  42  76  52  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  46  86  52  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  46  82  50  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   63  38  80  46  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  28  78  39  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  41  78  50  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  66  43  77  50  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    71  39  88  50  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

80/05
039
FXUS64 KMAF 151248
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
748 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to issue a Fire Danger Statement for the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry ambient conditions are prevailing over the forecast area this
morning, although recovery in most locations is fair to good.
Temperatures will warm later today, but remain below normal for mid
April.  Despite the cool temperatures, minimum afternoon RHs will
drop to 10 to 15 percent everywhere with some locations along the
Trans Pecos in West Texas dropping into the single digits.  The
surface pressure gradient will begin to tighten over the region
this afternoon, especially over southeast New Mexico.  Therefore,
think 20 foot winds will rise to 15 to around 20 mph sustained over
the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains.  A few
locations may hit critical fire weather criteria, but do not think
any locations will have these conditions for 3 hours or more.  Have
issued a Fire Danger Statement for the above areas for this
afternoon.  Conditions are still looking favorable Wednesday for
critical fire weather conditions in the Guadalupe Mountains, so
will leave the Fire Weather Watch alone.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.  Light and
variable winds will increase in strength out of the south by this
afternoon.  Some gusts will be likely during the afternoon hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

After a cold start this morning, temperatures will begin to
rebound with temperatures near seasonal norms for the next several
days. A weak cold front moving through the area Thursday will hold
temperatures back slightly with gradual warming resuming through
the weekend.

Models in agreement concerning shortwave kicking out across the
area ahead of trough pushing through the Southwest on Friday.
Though instability is limited Friday, should see at least isolated to
possibly scattered showers and thunderstorms initiating in the
mountains and moving northeast overnight. With approach of upper
trough on Saturday and Saturday evening and increasing low level
moisture, looking at greater instability on Saturday and greater
precipitation chances, particularly over southeast New Mexico as
well as the western and northern Permian Basin.

Model agreement breaks down after the weekend with the ECMWF
trending toward a ridge building over the area while the GFS digs
another trough into the southwest bringing a southwest flow aloft
to the area. Keeping rain chances low for the time being Sunday
through Wednesday. The warming trend is expected to continue into
next week.

FIRE WEATHER...

With warming temperatures and low dewpoints, relative humidities will
drop to 5 to 15 percent over southeast New Mexico and a large
portion of southwest Texas generally west of a line from Lamesa to
Sanderson and the Big Bend area on Wednesday. Winds across most of
this area will be 15 to 20 mph and gusty resulting in the
possibility of brief critical conditions Wednesday afternoon
through mid-evening. In the Guadalupe Mountains, winds may exceed
20 mph with higher gusts for an extended period of time with
relative humidity dropping to around 5 percent. Due to the
possibility of critical fire weather conditions over the Guadalupe
Mountains, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the Guadalupe
Mountains from 1 PM CDT (Noon MDT) to 10 PM CDT (9 PM MDT) Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  40  78  47  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              65  39  76  50  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                68  40  87  51  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  68  42  76  52  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  46  86  52  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  46  82  50  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   63  38  80  46  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  28  78  39  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  41  78  50  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  66  43  77  50  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    71  39  88  50  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  40  78  47  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              65  39  76  50  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                68  40  87  51  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  68  42  76  52  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  46  86  52  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  46  82  50  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   63  38  80  46  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  28  78  39  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  41  78  50  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  66  43  77  50  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    71  39  88  50  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM MDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FREEZE WARNING until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

80/05
303
FXUS64 KMAF 151127
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
622 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.  Light and
variable winds will increase in strength out of the south by this
afternoon.  Some gusts will be likely during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
After a cold start this morning, temperatures will begin to
rebound with temperatures near seasonal norms for the next several
days. A weak cold front moving through the area Thursday will hold
temperatures back slightly with gradual warming resuming through
the weekend.

Models in agreement concerning shortwave kicking out across the
area ahead of trough pushing through the Southwest on Friday.
Though instability is limited Friday, should see at least isolated to
possibly scattered showers and thunderstorms initiating in the
mountains and moving northeast overnight. With approach of upper
trough on Saturday and Saturday evening and increasing low level
moisture, looking at greater instability on Saturday and greater
precipitation chances, particularly over southeast New Mexico as
well as the western and northern Permian Basin.

Model agreement breaks down after the weekend with the ECMWF
trending toward a ridge building over the area while the GFS digs
another trough into the southwest bringing a southwest flow aloft
to the area. Keeping rain chances low for the time being Sunday
through Wednesday. The warming trend is expected to continue into
next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With warming temperatures and low dewpoints, relative humidities will
drop to 5 to 15 percent over southeast New Mexico and a large
portion of southwest Texas generally west of a line from Lamesa to
Sanderson and the Big Bend area on Wednesday. Winds across most of
this area will be 15 to 20 mph and gusty resulting in the
possibility of brief critical conditions Wednesday afternoon
through mid-evening. In the Guadalupe Mountains, winds may exceed
20 mph with higher gusts for an extended period of time with
relative humidity dropping to around 5 percent. Due to the
possibility of critical fire weather conditions over the Guadalupe
Mountains, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the Guadalupe
Mountains from 1 PM CDT (Noon MDT) to 10 PM CDT (9 PM MDT) Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  40  78  47  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              65  39  76  50  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                68  40  87  51  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  68  42  76  52  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  46  86  52  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  46  82  50  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   63  38  80  46  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  28  78  39  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  41  78  50  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  66  43  77  50  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    71  39  88  50  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM MDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FREEZE WARNING until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

80/05
471
FXUS64 KMAF 150850
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
350 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
After a cold start this morning, temperatures will begin to
rebound with temperatures near seasonal norms for the next several
days. A weak cold front moving through the area Thursday will hold
temperatures back slightly with gradual warming resuming through
the weekend.

Models in agreement concerning shortwave kicking out across the
area ahead of trough pushing through the Southwest on Friday.
Though instability is limited Friday, should see at least isolated to
possibly scattered showers and thunderstorms initiating in the
mountains and moving northeast overnight. With approach of upper
trough on Saturday and Saturday evening and increasing low level
moisture, looking at greater instability on Saturday and greater
precipitation chances, particularly over southeast New Mexico as
well as the western and northern Permian Basin.

Model agreement breaks down after the weekend with the ECMWF
trending toward a ridge building over the area while the GFS digs
another trough into the southwest bringing a southwest flow aloft
to the area. Keeping rain chances low for the time being Sunday
through Wednesday. The warming trend is expected to continue into
next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With warming temperatures and low dewpoints, relative humidities will
drop to 5 to 15 percent over southeast New Mexico and a large
portion of southwest Texas generally west of a line from Lamesa to
Sanderson and the Big Bend area on Wednesday. Winds across most of
this area will be 15 to 20 mph and gusty resulting in the
possibility of brief critical conditions Wednesday afternoon
through mid-evening. In the Guadalupe Mountains, winds may exceed
20 mph with higher gusts for an extended period of time with
relative humidity dropping to around 5 percent. Due to the
possibility of critical fire weather conditions over the Guadalupe
Mountains, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the Guadalupe
Mountains from 1 PM CDT (Noon MDT) to 10 PM CDT (9 PM MDT) Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  40  78  47  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              65  39  76  50  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                68  40  87  51  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  68  42  76  52  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  46  86  52  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  46  82  50  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   63  38  80  46  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  28  78  39  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  41  78  50  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  66  43  77  50  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    71  39  88  50  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM MDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FREEZE WARNING until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

80/05
596
FXUS64 KMAF 150524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.  Winds will
be light and variable during the overnight period before increasing
out of the south and southeast by Tuesday afternoon.  Some gusts
will be likely during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The cold front has moved into Mexico as the upper level trough
passes by to the north of the forecast area. Cool surface high
pressure is building into the area from the north and will settle
over the Permian Basin tonight. Light winds, clear skies and dry
air is expected underneath the cool high and freezing temperatures
are likely across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
Will go ahead and upgrade the freeze watch to a freeze warning for
much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico for late tonight
through mid Tuesday morning.

Looks like a quiet and cool day Tuesday with the high moving off
to the east and a lee surface trough forming across the western
high plains. Temperatures will moderate to normal values
by Wednesday as the trough intensifies. Windy conditions will
likely develop in the Guadalupe Mountains with breezy conditions
in many sections of the plains. Later shifts will need to monitor
for potential high winds in the Guadalupe Mountains per 700
millibar wind forecast.

An upper level trough is forecast to track across the plains
early Thursday and drive a dry cold front south late in the day.
Minimal cooling is expected behind this front Thursday and
Friday.

Deep southwesterly flow aloft will develop Friday and Saturday
ahead of a southern stream upper level storm system. The trough
will be close enough by Saturday to mention a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms across western sections during the day
and areawide Saturday night.

Beyond Saturday night kept a dry forecast and went with a split in
guidance temperatures due to significant differences between the
models in the pattern aloft.

FIRE WEATHER...
NW flow aloft in the wake of yesterday`s trough will slowly
transition to zonal over the next couple of days as the next trough
approaches.  Wednesday afternoon...forecast soundings at KGDP mix
deeply, to well above H7, where 30-35kt westerlies are forecast.
This momentum transfer will sharpen up a dryline to the east, and
single-digit dewpoints will result in single-digit RH`s in the
Guadalupes Wednesday afternoon.  Thus, we`ve issued an fire wx watch
attm to cover this.  Adjacent plains will likely need to be added as
the event nears.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Tuesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM CDT /Midnight MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM
     MDT/ Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend
     Area...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...
     Ward...Winkler.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10
179
FXUS64 KMAF 142257
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
557 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. Gusty north winds will subside
shortly and veer from the east and southeast through the next 24
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The cold front has moved into Mexico as the upper level trough
passes by to the north of the forecast area. Cool surface high
pressure is building into the area from the north and will settle
over the Permian Basin tonight. Light winds, clear skies and dry
air is expected underneath the cool high and freezing temperatures
are likely across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
Will go ahead and upgrade the freeze watch to a freeze warning for
much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico for late tonight
through mid Tuesday morning.

Looks like a quiet and cool day Tuesday with the high moving off
to the east and a lee surface trough forming across the western
high plains. Temperatures will moderate to normal values
by Wednesday as the trough intensifies. Windy conditions will
likely develop in the Guadalupe Mountains with breezy conditions
in many sections of the plains. Later shifts will need to monitor
for potential high winds in the Guadalupe Mountains per 700
millibar wind forecast.

An upper level trough is forecast to track across the plains
early Thursday and drive a dry cold front south late in the day.
Minimal cooling is expected behind this front Thursday and
Friday.

Deep southwesterly flow aloft will develop Friday and Saturday
ahead of a southern stream upper level storm system. The trough
will be close enough by Saturday to mention a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms across western sections during the day
and areawide Saturday night.

Beyond Saturday night kept a dry forecast and went with a split in
guidance temperatures due to significant differences between the
models in the pattern aloft.

FIRE WEATHER...
NW flow aloft in the wake of yesterday`s trough will slowly
transition to zonal over the next couple of days as the next trough
approaches.  Wednesday afternoon...forecast soundings at KGDP mix
deeply, to well above H7, where 30-35kt westerlies are forecast.
This momentum transfer will sharpen up a dryline to the east, and
single-digit dewpoints will result in single-digit RH`s in the
Guadalupes Wednesday afternoon.  Thus, we`ve issued an fire wx watch
attm to cover this.  Adjacent plains will likely need to be added as
the event nears.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Tuesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM CDT /Midnight MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM
     MDT/ Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend
     Area...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...
     Ward...Winkler.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10
289
FXUS64 KMAF 141943
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
243 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The cold front has moved into Mexico as the upper level trough
passes by to the north of the forecast area. Cool surface high
pressure is building into the area from the north and will settle
over the Permian Basin tonight. Light winds, clear skies and dry
air is expected underneath the cool high and freezing temperatures
are likely across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
Will go ahead and upgrade the freeze watch to a freeze warning for
much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico for late tonight
through mid Tuesday morning.

Looks like a quiet and cool day Tuesday with the high moving off
to the east and a lee surface trough forming across the western
high plains. Temperatures will moderate to normal values
by Wednesday as the trough intensifies. Windy conditions will
likely develop in the Guadalupe Mountains with breezy conditions
in many sections of the plains. Later shifts will need to monitor
for potential high winds in the Guadalupe Mountains per 700
millibar wind forecast.

An upper level trough is forecast to track across the plains
early Thursday and drive a dry cold front south late in the day.
Minimal cooling is expected behind this front Thursday and
Friday.

Deep southwesterly flow aloft will develop Friday and Saturday
ahead of a southern stream upper level storm system. The trough
will be close enough by Saturday to mention a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms across western sections during the day
and areawide Saturday night.

Beyond Saturday night kept a dry forecast and went with a split in
guidance temperatures due to significant differences between the
models in the pattern aloft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NW flow aloft in the wake of yesterday`s trough will slowly
transition to zonal over the next couple of days as the next trough
approaches.  Wednesday afternoon...forecast soundings at KGDP mix
deeply, to well above H7, where 30-35kt westerlies are forecast.
This momentum transfer will sharpen up a dryline to the east, and
single-digit dewpoints will result in single-digit RH`s in the
Guadalupes Wednesday afternoon.  Thus, we`ve issued an fire wx watch
attm to cover this.  Adjacent plains will likely need to be added as
the event nears.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 29  65  41  76  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              30  64  40  78  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                29  69  41  86  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  38  68  43  76  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           34  70  47  88  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          32  63  47  76  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   25  65  40  80  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   24  64  27  78  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    30  65  41  79  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  31  65  43  77  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    31  71  40  84  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Tuesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM CDT /Midnight MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM
     MDT/ Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend
     Area...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...
     Ward...Winkler.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44/12
395
FXUS64 KMAF 141830
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
130 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Wind Advisories have expired, and high winds have fallen below
warning criteria in the Guadalupes. We`ll do a quick update to
cancel the High Wind Warning, and clean up the grids. Updates out shortly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough swinging across the Rockies overnight and
onto the plains today will bring a drastic change in wx to the
region.  This trough is pushing a strong cold front through the
area this morning.  It has been very gusty behind the front with
some locations reporting gusts over 40kts... blowing dust can be
expected over most of the region this morning.  This front is
expected to reach the Rio Grande by sunrise.  An upper ridge builds
in behind the trough for a few days of mild wx.  Next upper trough
will impact the area Thursday.

A High Wind Warning remains in effect most of the day for the
Guadalupe mountains with a Wind Advisory until 18z for the area
except Marfa Plateau and Big Bend.  During the afternoon wind speeds
are expected to decrease as the pressure gradient relaxes.

The Highs last Saturday were in the 90s.  Highs today will be in the
50s for most of the region with 60s for the Pecos River valley and
near the Rio Grande.  Strong cold air advection will continue through
the day.  Will have post frontal clouds moving down across the
Permian Basin this morning but these will dissipate during the day.
By tonight skies will be mostly clear and wind speeds will become
light.  This will result in very efficient radiational cooling in
the dry air.  Late tonight/early tomorrow much of the region may
receive its first freeze in nearly a month.  This is a couple weeks
past the average last freeze date so will continue the Freeze Watch
in effect Tuesday morning for most of the CWA.  The cooldown will be
brief as a south wind and warmer temperatures return Tuesday with
highs back into the 60s and 70s.  Will have another cold front
Thursday but will not be as strong.  By the weekend normal
temperatures return.

Currently there are snow showers over eastern NM and the Panhandle
but this precipitation is tracking east and not expected it to make
it down into the area.  There is hope for some rain by next weekend
as models raise pops and increase qpf but it is too far out to
mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 29  65  41  76  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              30  64  40  78  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                29  69  41  86  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  38  68  43  76  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           34  70  47  88  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          32  63  47  76  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   25  65  40  80  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   24  64  27  78  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    30  65  41  79  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  31  65  43  77  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    31  71  40  84  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Tuesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM CDT /Midnight MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM
     MDT/ Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend
     Area...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...
     Ward...Winkler.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44/12
018
FXUS64 KMAF 141739
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1239 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Northerly post-frontal
winds will subside over the next few hours as pressure gradients
slacken. Return flow resumes Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014/

UPDATE...

Updated first period for pops.

DISCUSSION...
Went ahead and updated forecast to add isolated snow showers this
morning. Current radar trends have a few light snow showers
moving in from the west... could see a flurry in Tatum.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Please see 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Cold front has moved through all TAF sites as of 11Z. Main
aviation concerns center around strong winds and MVFR ceilings
this morning. Tight pressure gradient across the area will keep
winds elevated around 20 kts with higher gusts to 30 kts possible
through 17z. As the surface pressure gradient relaxes, wind speeds
will decrease this afternoon and become light this evening. MVFR
stratus will prevail across most sites this before lifting/moving
east around 17-18z. Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the
remainder of the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough swinging across the Rockies overnight and
onto the plains today will bring a drastic change in wx to the
region.  This trough is pushing a strong cold front through the
area this morning.  It has been very gusty behind the front with
some locations reporting gusts over 40kts... blowing dust can be
expected over most of the region this morning.  This front is
expected to reach the Rio Grande by sunrise.  An upper ridge builds
in behind the trough for a few days of mild wx.  Next upper trough
will impact the area Thursday.

A High Wind Warning remains in effect most of the day for the
Guadalupe mountains with a Wind Advisory until 18z for the area
except Marfa Plateau and Big Bend.  During the afternoon wind speeds
are expected to decrease as the pressure gradient relaxes.

The Highs last Saturday were in the 90s.  Highs today will be in the
50s for most of the region with 60s for the Pecos River valley and
near the Rio Grande.  Strong cold air advection will continue through
the day.  Will have post frontal clouds moving down across the
Permian Basin this morning but these will dissipate during the day.
By tonight skies will be mostly clear and wind speeds will become
light.  This will result in very efficient radiational cooling in
the dry air.  Late tonight/early tomorrow much of the region may
receive its first freeze in nearly a month.  This is a couple weeks
past the average last freeze date so will continue the Freeze Watch
in effect Tuesday morning for most of the CWA.  The cooldown will be
brief as a south wind and warmer temperatures return Tuesday with
highs back into the 60s and 70s.  Will have another cold front
Thursday but will not be as strong.  By the weekend normal
temperatures return.

Currently there are snow showers over eastern NM and the Panhandle
but this precipitation is tracking east and not expected it to make
it down into the area.  There is hope for some rain by next weekend
as models raise pops and increase qpf but it is too far out to
mention at this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Tuesday morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     WIND ADVISORY until Noon MDT today FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Tuesday morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44
657
FXUS64 KMAF 141139
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
639 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.UPDATE...

Updated first period for pops.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Went ahead and updated forecast to add isolated snow showers this
morning. Current radar trends have a few light snow showers
moving in from the west... could see a flurry in Tatum.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Please see 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Cold front has moved through all TAF sites as of 11Z. Main
aviation concerns center around strong winds and MVFR ceilings
this morning. Tight pressure gradient across the area will keep
winds elevated around 20 kts with higher gusts to 30 kts possible
through 17z. As the surface pressure gradient relaxes, wind speeds
will decrease this afternoon and become light this evening. MVFR
stratus will prevail across most sites this before lifting/moving
east around 17-18z. Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the
remainder of the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough swinging across the Rockies overnight and
onto the plains today will bring a drastic change in wx to the
region.  This trough is pushing a strong cold front through the
area this morning.  It has been very gusty behind the front with
some locations reporting gusts over 40kts... blowing dust can be
expected over most of the region this morning.  This front is
expected to reach the Rio Grande by sunrise.  An upper ridge builds
in behind the trough for a few days of mild wx.  Next upper trough
will impact the area Thursday.

A High Wind Warning remains in effect most of the day for the
Guadalupe mountains with a Wind Advisory until 18z for the area
except Marfa Plateau and Big Bend.  During the afternoon wind speeds
are expected to decrease as the pressure gradient relaxes.

The Highs last Saturday were in the 90s.  Highs today will be in the
50s for most of the region with 60s for the Pecos River valley and
near the Rio Grande.  Strong cold air advection will continue through
the day.  Will have post frontal clouds moving down across the
Permian Basin this morning but these will dissipate during the day.
By tonight skies will be mostly clear and wind speeds will become
light.  This will result in very efficient radiational cooling in
the dry air.  Late tonight/early tomorrow much of the region may
receive its first freeze in nearly a month.  This is a couple weeks
past the average last freeze date so will continue the Freeze Watch
in effect Tuesday morning for most of the CWA.  The cooldown will be
brief as a south wind and warmer temperatures return Tuesday with
highs back into the 60s and 70s.  Will have another cold front
Thursday but will not be as strong.  By the weekend normal
temperatures return.

Currently there are snow showers over eastern NM and the Panhandle
but this precipitation is tracking east and not expected it to make
it down into the area.  There is hope for some rain by next weekend
as models raise pops and increase qpf but it is too far out to
mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 53  30  64  39  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              54  32  63  40  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                56  32  68  40  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  66  39  67  43  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  35  68  45  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  32  62  45  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   51  26  64  38  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   58  27  63  30  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  30  64  40  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  54  32  64  41  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  30  70  39  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Tuesday morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     WIND ADVISORY until Noon MDT today FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Tuesday morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$
736
FXUS64 KMAF 141123
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
623 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front has moved through all TAF sites as of 11Z. Main
aviation concerns center around strong winds and MVFR ceilings
this morning. Tight pressure gradient across the area will keep
winds elevated around 20 kts with higher gusts to 30 kts possible
through 17z. As the surface pressure gradient relaxes, wind speeds
will decrease this afternoon and become light this evening. MVFR
stratus will prevail across most sites this before lifting/moving
east around 17-18z. Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the
remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough swinging across the Rockies overnight and
onto the plains today will bring a drastic change in wx to the
region.  This trough is pushing a strong cold front through the
area this morning.  It has been very gusty behind the front with
some locations reporting gusts over 40kts... blowing dust can be
expected over most of the region this morning.  This front is
expected to reach the Rio Grande by sunrise.  An upper ridge builds
in behind the trough for a few days of mild wx.  Next upper trough
will impact the area Thursday.

A High Wind Warning remains in effect most of the day for the
Guadalupe mountains with a Wind Advisory until 18z for the area
except Marfa Plateau and Big Bend.  During the afternoon wind speeds
are expected to decrease as the pressure gradient relaxes.

The Highs last Saturday were in the 90s.  Highs today will be in the
50s for most of the region with 60s for the Pecos River valley and
near the Rio Grande.  Strong cold air advection will continue through
the day.  Will have post frontal clouds moving down across the
Permian Basin this morning but these will dissipate during the day.
By tonight skies will be mostly clear and wind speeds will become
light.  This will result in very efficient radiational cooling in
the dry air.  Late tonight/early tomorrow much of the region may
receive its first freeze in nearly a month.  This is a couple weeks
past the average last freeze date so will continue the Freeze Watch
in effect Tuesday morning for most of the CWA.  The cooldown will be
brief as a south wind and warmer temperatures return Tuesday with
highs back into the 60s and 70s.  Will have another cold front
Thursday but will not be as strong.  By the weekend normal
temperatures return.

Currently there are snow showers over eastern NM and the Panhandle
but this precipitation is tracking east and not expected it to make
it down into the area.  There is hope for some rain by next weekend
as models raise pops and increase qpf but it is too far out to
mention at this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Tuesday morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     WIND ADVISORY until Noon MDT today FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Tuesday morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

13
857
FXUS64 KMAF 140804
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
304 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough swinging across the Rockies overnight and
onto the plains today will bring a drastic change in wx to the
region.  This trough is pushing a strong cold front through the
area this morning.  It has been very gusty behind the front with
some locations reporting gusts over 40kts... blowing dust can be
expected over most of the region this morning.  This front is
expected to reach the Rio Grande by sunrise.  An upper ridge builds
in behind the trough for a few days of mild wx.  Next upper trough
will impact the area Thursday.

A High Wind Warning remains in effect most of the day for the
Guadalupe mountains with a Wind Advisory until 18z for the area
except Marfa Plateau and Big Bend.  During the afternoon wind speeds
are expected to decrease as the pressure gradient relaxes.

The Highs last Saturday were in the 90s.  Highs today will be in the
50s for most of the region with 60s for the Pecos River valley and
near the Rio Grande.  Strong cold air advection will continue through
the day.  Will have post frontal clouds moving down across the
Permian Basin this morning but these will dissipate during the day.
By tonight skies will be mostly clear and wind speeds will become
light.  This will result in very efficient radiational cooling in
the dry air.  Late tonight/early tomorrow much of the region may
receive its first freeze in nearly a month.  This is a couple weeks
past the average last freeze date so will continue the Freeze Watch
in effect Tuesday morning for most of the CWA.  The cooldown will be
brief as a south wind and warmer temperatures return Tuesday with
highs back into the 60s and 70s.  Will have another cold front
Thursday but will not be as strong.  By the weekend normal
temperatures return.

Currently there are snow showers over eastern NM and the Panhandle
but this precipitation is tracking east and not expected it to make
it down into the area.  There is hope for some rain by next weekend
as models raise pops and increase qpf but it is too far out to
mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 53  30  64  39  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              54  32  63  40  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                56  32  68  40  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  66  39  67  43  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  35  68  45  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  32  62  45  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   51  26  64  38  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   58  27  63  30  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  30  64  40  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  54  32  64  41  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  30  70  39  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Tuesday morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     WIND ADVISORY until Noon MDT today FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Tuesday morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

13/72
023
FXUS64 KMAF 140539
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1239 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Strong cold front will push across TAF sites overnight. Having already
moved through KHOB as of 14/05z, the front should be through KMAF by
14/06z. Main aviation concerns will revolve around gusty northerly
winds (20-25 kts with gusts around 35 kts) behind the front, temporary
visibility obstructions due to dust, and potential for MVFR
ceilings behind the front. Winds will remain elevated throughout
the day and decrease when the surface pressure gradient relaxes as
a surface high settles into the area after 15/02z. Satellite
imagery shows an MVFR stratus deck building south behind the front
in NM, with KROW reporting OVC029. With dry air in place over the
area, confidence is low on the development of MVFR ceilings into
area TAF sites. Forecast soundings keep broken to scattered
ceilings in the VFR range. Have bumped all ceilings up to VFR and
will handle any ceiling changes with amendments.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough ejecting thru the Central Plains,
while a sfc analysis shows a dryline has sharpened up over the
eastern tier of zones. At 18Z, KMAF had a Td of 22F, whereas Big
Lake had a Td of 60F.  Area radars show convection trying to develop
along/east of the dryline, but well out of our FA.  Latest obs/RTMA
analysis indicates Red Flag conditions ongoing over the northern
half of the CWA, not yet having developed south.  The NAM once again
initialized better on sfc moisture and winds than did the GFS, and
remains the preferred model.  That said, latest run develops
critical fire wx conditions south into the Big Bend area later this
afternoon as the dryline continues mixing east, so the current RFW
looks good.

Meanwhile, to the north, a cold front was moving into the Texas
Panhandle, and forecast to backdoor into the Wrn Low Rolling Plains
just after 06Z, w/buffer soundings suggesting fropa at KMAF just
after 07Z.  A very tight MSL pressure gradient on the order of
10mb/110nm will accompany the front, and w/dry soils, a wall of dust
also.  We`ll expand the wind advisory west and south for areas after
midnight, and even lingering into Monday morning for areas SW.
Temps Monday afternoon should come in well below normal...more
representative of early January than mid April, as a secondary
trough follows the first.  A big question remains as to where it
will freeze Tuesday morning, as there is a temp spread among the
models.  MET guidance looks unreasonably cold, whereas the MAV looks
closer to reality.  Forecast soundings, clear skies, and decoupling
suggest a model blend would be best attm.  We`ll continue w/an SPS
emphasizing a freeze for now, and issue a warning for specific areas
either w/tonight or tomorrow`s package.

NW flow aloft follows the second trough, and temps begin slowly
warming to normal by midweek.  Wednesday night, models push a second
cold front into the area, w/the GFS/DGEX being stronger than the
ECMWF/CMC.  Both the ECMWF (warmest) and GFS (coldest) are outliers,
so we`ve used a model blend of the two attm, which would put temps
later into Saturday just south of normal.  By the weekend, models
develop a closed upper low over SoCal, leaving West Texas/SE NM
under SW flow aloft.  Moisture return looks excellent by this time,
w/forecasted dewpoints in the 50s area-wide by Saturday afternoon.
This looks to be the next best chance of rain for the area, w/models
breaking out convection ahead of the trough.  Of course, models are
out of sync on timing of the trough, w/the GFS the most aggressive,
the ECMWF lagging back in CA, and the DGEX in between.  For this
reason, we`ll leave the grids dry for now, and just insert higher
pops/increased cloud cover over the area
Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WATCH from late Monday night through Tuesday morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     WIND ADVISORY until Noon MDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Tuesday morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

13
129
FXUS64 KMAF 140150
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
850 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.UPDATE...

Forecast has been updated to now include a Freeze Watch for
Tuesday morning for most of the area. High pressure will settle in
Monday night with light winds and clear skies expected.
Temperatures will fall to or below freezing by sunrise Tuesday
morning with a hard freeze (temps <28 degrees) possible across the
northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Temperatures will
warm above freezing by mid-morning Tuesday. Most areas have not
seen a freeze since mid-March and the growing season is in full
swing. This late season freeze could damage or kill any sensitive
vegetation if precautions are not taken.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
A cold front has been holding in the southern Texas Panhandle this
afternoon, but will begin moving south again shortly arriving in
the area around midnight. Winds will shift from the north and
become very gusty for about 12 hours behind the front before
diminishing late in the TAF period. MVFR CIGs are expected near
12Z and will hang around for only a few hours before moving
southeast.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough ejecting thru the Central Plains,
while a sfc analysis shows a dryline has sharpened up over the
eastern tier of zones. At 18Z, KMAF had a Td of 22F, whereas Big
Lake had a Td of 60F.  Area radars show convection trying to develop
along/east of the dryline, but well out of our FA.  Latest obs/RTMA
analysis indicates Red Flag conditions ongoing over the northern
half of the CWA, not yet having developed south.  The NAM once again
initialized better on sfc moisture and winds than did the GFS, and
remains the preferred model.  That said, latest run develops
critical fire wx conditions south into the Big Bend area later this
afternoon as the dryline continues mixing east, so the current RFW
looks good.

Meanwhile, to the north, a cold front was moving into the Texas
Panhandle, and forecast to backdoor into the Wrn Low Rolling Plains
just after 06Z, w/buffer soundings suggesting fropa at KMAF just
after 07Z.  A very tight MSL pressure gradient on the order of
10mb/110nm will accompany the front, and w/dry soils, a wall of dust
also.  We`ll expand the wind advisory west and south for areas after
midnight, and even lingering into Monday morning for areas SW.
Temps Monday afternoon should come in well below normal...more
representative of early January than mid April, as a secondary
trough follows the first.  A big question remains as to where it
will freeze Tuesday morning, as there is a temp spread among the
models.  MET guidance looks unreasonably cold, whereas the MAV looks
closer to reality.  Forecast soundings, clear skies, and decoupling
suggest a model blend would be best attm.  We`ll continue w/an SPS
emphasizing a freeze for now, and issue a warning for specific areas
either w/tonight or tomorrow`s package.

NW flow aloft follows the second trough, and temps begin slowly
warming to normal by midweek.  Wednesday night, models push a second
cold front into the area, w/the GFS/DGEX being stronger than the
ECMWF/CMC.  Both the ECMWF (warmest) and GFS (coldest) are outliers,
so we`ve used a model blend of the two attm, which would put temps
later into Saturday just south of normal.  By the weekend, models
develop a closed upper low over SoCal, leaving West Texas/SE NM
under SW flow aloft.  Moisture return looks excellent by this time,
w/forecasted dewpoints in the 50s area-wide by Saturday afternoon.
This looks to be the next best chance of rain for the area, w/models
breaking out convection ahead of the trough.  Of course, models are
out of sync on timing of the trough, w/the GFS the most aggressive,
the ECMWF lagging back in CA, and the DGEX in between.  For this
reason, we`ll leave the grids dry for now, and just insert higher
pops/increased cloud cover over the area
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 38  51  31  63  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              38  54  32  62  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                41  54  30  66  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  51  66  40  66  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           43  58  34  66  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          35  49  32  61  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   35  50  26  61  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   43  55  28  59  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    39  56  30  63  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  38  54  32  63  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    44  59  29  69  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 11 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     FREEZE WATCH from late Monday night through Tuesday morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     WIND ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon MDT Monday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until Midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     FREEZE WATCH from late Monday night through Tuesday morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 PM MDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29

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