Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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419
FXUS64 KMAF 251515
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1015 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.UPDATE...

Update to lower PoPs this morning and adjust high temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Have adjusted PoPs downward over most of the forecast area for the
rest of the morning, as a large area of convection to the southeast
of the Lower Trans Pecos has effectively cutoff moist low level
inflow into West Texas.  Expect the complex of storms to the
southeast to become a little less pronounced this afternoon, and
with isentropic upglide over southward moving cold front, showers
and thunderstorms are still expected to develop over the area.  The
threat for heavy rainfall continues over the eastern half of the
forecast area, so will leave the Flash Flood Watch in effect.
Adjusted high temperatures downward over the Lower Trans Pecos, but
raised highs over much of the rest of the area.  An update will
follow shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

VFR conditions prevail across the area this morning, with an axis
of showers/thunderstorms to the east of area terminals. Storms are
expected to develop westward this morning, with brief MVFR
conditions in heavy rain possible. A cold front will move through
the area late morning/early afternoon, resulting in widespread
storm development with MVFR and potentially IFR conditions in
heavy rain at area terminals. Winds behind the front will back to
the N/NE with gusts up to 25-35KT, with little if any improvement
expected through 26/12Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

Radar is showing a large axis of precip from OK extending sw into
the Concho Valley/E PB. Precip is co-located within rich mid level
theta-e ridge axis (~ +2 standard deviations). Meanwhile a cold
front is located from near ATS-near AMA and points newd with drier
air noted in wake of the boundary. Water vapor shows upper low
INVOF SW NM which is forecast to deepen and back the mid level
flow, once the flow starts to back precip will start to redevelop
farther w. A key feature is the 7h low and assocd sharp trof that
will extend ne across the Lower Trans Pecos and PB after 12Z. WAA
and isentropic lift all around 7h will increase sharply and lift
seen on isentropic surfaces 310-315K will increase resulting in
the expansion of precip coverage. Most likely precip will remain
confined within the current watch area, but could reach into parts
of SE NM after 18Z. The cold front will apparently have the best
push across SE NM into the Upper Trans Pecos this AM, but it will
still be a focus for development across the PB. The prolonged
presence of large scale lift and abundance of moisture certainly
does keep concerns high wrt very heavy rain/flash flooding. Cold
front and mstr transport along the front does support precip into
the Sunday night and possibly Monday, but still the PB and Lower
Trans Pecos are the favored areas with increasing upper divergence
as upper low retrogrades into Mon AM. We plan no changes to the
flash flood watch with this issuance. Storm total precip of 4-6
inches are possible across parts of the PB and Lower Trans Pecos.
Precip chances will start to wane by Mon night, especially Tue.
Temperatures will be well below normal Today thru Tue. NE winds
increase mostly after 18Z today and remain up (windy) thru at
least mid morning Mon so there will be a definite cool feel in the
air. The high wind warning for GDP Pass still looks good and we
made no changes. High temperatures will be back in the 80s by Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  54  61  52 /  90  90  70  20
Carlsbad                       69  56  61  53 /  50  70  60  20
Dryden                         73  63  68  57 / 100 100  80  50
Fort Stockton                  71  57  61  52 /  90 100  80  40
Guadalupe Pass                 64  48  52  45 /  50  70  40  30
Hobbs                          68  54  60  51 /  60  60  50  20
Marfa                          67  55  59  50 /  70  60  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           75  56  61  52 /  90  90  70  20
Odessa                         75  55  60  53 /  90  90  70  20
Wink                           75  58  61  53 /  90  90  70  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Andrews-Big Bend
     Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to noon MDT Monday
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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