Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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731
FXUS64 KMAF 020950
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
446 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The base of an upper level trough is expected to pass over the
region later today with a surface trough developing and
strengthening across New Mexico and West Texas.  This surface trough
will bring gusty southwest winds across the area which will
contribute to downslope compressional warming.  Due to these
conditions, high temperatures today are expected to be well above
average with many places experiencing temperatures in the 90s.  The
record high temperature for today at Midland is 95 reached in 2011,
so temperatures today will be close to record levels.  Strong winds
at the base of the upper trough will mix down to the surface in the
Guadalupe Mountains today so the High Wind Watch has been upgraded
to a High Wind Warning.  The surface pressure gradient across the
Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon according to the models isn`t too
impressive but think that the downward mixing will compensate for
this so a low end high wind event is expected.

The previously mentioned upper trough will pass over the Central
Plains on Friday and send a cold front southward towards the CWA.
This cold front is expected to push through the area Friday
morning.  High temperatures for Friday will cool just slightly below
average with temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s expected across
the Permian Basin.  Temperatures are expected to cool even more on
Saturday with highs mainly in the 60s as the surface high moves over
the area and chances of rain with isolated thunderstorms increase
across the CWA.  Rain and thunderstorm chances will continue on
Sunday across eastern portions of the CWA as low-level moisture will
be on the increase and weak upper ridging develops aloft.
Temperatures on Sunday will warm up to slightly above normal as
southwest winds return to the area.  An upper level trough will be
over the western conus on Monday with west to southwest flow aloft
over the CWA.  Precipitation chances will all but end on Monday, and
elevated westerly winds will push the low-level moisture east of the
area.  This will result in high temperatures on Monday warming up
into the 80s across the majority of the area.  Conditions will be
very similar on Tuesday as the upper trough moves closer to the
region.  Chances of thunderstorms will increase across the eastern
CWA as upper level lift from the approaching trough moves over the
area.  Another cold front is expected to move into the CWA on
Thursday with temperatures cooling to near normal.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red Flag wx is still on schedule to develop by this PM across
GDP-Delaware Mtns. SE NM, NW PB and Upper Trans Pecos. 7h wind of
30-35kts will have a good chance to mix to the surface with
GFS/NAM12 sounding reflecting deep mixing thru about 650mb. Mean
layer wind on GFS sounding is about 30kts across SE NM and should be
good for gusts to 45 mph. BLM in SE NM reports that grasses are
plenty cured to carry fire and with the fire danger rating of very
high to extreme there a RFW is certainly warranted. TFS Fuel Dryness
data still shows normal to above normal mstr so idea of increased
initial attack holds. Mtns will be windier as usual, but it is
plenty dry there too, even in the higher elevations. Critical fire
weather will likely return, possibly as early as Easter Sunday
across the far w, and expanding farther Mon and Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 90  55  69  43  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              91  56  69  44  /   0   0  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                88  52  73  44  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  95  66  85  52  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           92  58  77  47  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          82  51  68  41  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   87  51  67  40  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   83  46  74  41  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    91  56  71  44  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  91  55  71  44  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    94  55  75  46  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Andrews...Dawson...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

49/80

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