Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 312255

555 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

See aviation discussion below.


VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. A weak cool front
across the extreme northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico
Plains is forecast to slowly shift south and west overnight toward
the central Permian Basin northwestward toward the Pecos River
near Carlsbad. A few thunderstorms were forming near the Lubbock
area and were generating more boundaries that were pushing into
the northern Permian Basin but these features do not appear like
they will spark significant additional storms overnight that would
impact any of the terminals. Isolated thunderstorms are expected
to develop areawide Saturday with boundaries still lingering but
confidence was not high enough to mention at any of the terminals
at this time. Will continue to monitor. Generally east to southeast
winds of 5 to 15 mph are expected the next 24 hours.





The center of an upper ridge over the region will shift westward
during the weekend due to an amplifying ua trough over the eastern
U.S., and take up temporary residence near the Four Corners region.
The ridge will be a little weaker as a result, which will allow for
an increase in thunderstorm chances for a few days.  Models indicate
a westward moving, but weak, shortwave trough over the Lower Trans
Pecos today which will end up in the vicinity of the Davis
Mountains late this afternoon.  This, along with slightly higher
theta e air in these areas, could allow for isolated
thunderstorms there into this evening.  The only other locations
which may see convection through the afternoon would be the
northern fringes of the forecast area where higher theta e air
resides. Due to a dry subcloud layer and lack of shear, any storms
could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and perhaps brief
heavy rainfall.

Another stronger shortwave trough will translate south/southeastward
around the weakening ua ridge tonight and Saturday, with an outflow
boundary or two at the surface likely moving into the area.
Therefore, will add isolated PoPs over portions of the eastern CWA
tonight, and leave scattered convection already in the forecast for
Saturday.  Temperatures will not be quite as hot Saturday, but
should warm back near the century mark most locations outside the
mountains Sunday as the ua ridge begins to expand back eastward.
The ua ridge won`t be as strong as the last few days, and higher
theta e air will linger over portions of the Permian Basin and SE NM
through Sunday, and the higher terrain through early next week.
Will leave slight chances for thunderstorms these areas, but the
general trend through early next week will be for mainly dry
conditions and temperatures staying several degrees above normal.





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