Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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757
FXUS64 KMAF 221009
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
409 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package will be the increasing
potential for wintry precip tonight and Monday across much of
southeast New Mexico and west Texas. A Winter Weather Advisory
remains in effect from tonight through Monday morning for SE NM and
much of W TX. Additionally, a tight surface pressure gradient,
associated with the approaching front, will result in strong NE
winds funneling through Guadalupe Pass overnight tonight. This will
likely result in difficult driving conditions particularly for high
profile vehicles and the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High
Wind Warning for this location.

Currently have SW flow developing aloft as an upper trough digs
south toward the SW ConUS. Meanwhile at the surface, a surge of cold
air continues to spill southward this morning and is expected to
result in falling temperatures throughout the day. Once this colder
air begins to filter in, isentropic upglide will be on the increase
with light precip spreading across much of the region this
afternoon. Precip chances will continue through much of Monday with
the highest chances generally NE of the Pecos River. Precip type
will initially begin as all rain most places today however far
northern zones could see some sleet mixed in later this afternoon
before 00Z (6pm CST). As the colder air advances southward
overnight, forecast model soundings continue to support rain
changing over to freezing rain and/or sleet for all but the far
southern zones by midnight tonight. For northern Lea County, think
its possible for a snow/sleet mix rather than freezing rain. All of
this, of course, is all dependent on timing of the colder air
tonight therefore onset of wintry precip is subject to change.

Best ice accumulations remain NE of the Pecos River, particularly
across the Permian Basin, with up to 0.20 inches possible. Northern
Lea Co could receive up to an inch of snow/sleet before precip
diminishes from west to east Monday afternoon. Timing of greatest
impacts look to occur from 06-15Z Monday which is concerning given
it would affect the Monday morning commute. If impacts look to
worsen or if higher accumulations are anticipated then the
Winter Weather Advisory may need to be upgraded to a Winter Storm
Warning.

High temperatures on Monday will range from the mid/upper 20s
northeast to the 40s southwest. A warming trend is expected Tuesday
and Wednesday however the next cold front is progged to arrive
Thursday morning, bringing colder temperatures back to the region
heading into next weekend. In addition, could see the return of
wintry precip during this time as a couple of upper shortwaves
traverse the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 42  22  27  22  /  60  70  50  10
BIG SPRING TX              42  22  27  23  /  70  70  60  10
CARLSBAD NM                52  25  33  26  /  50  50  40  10
DRYDEN TX                  67  33  36  31  /  30  50  40  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           63  26  34  28  /  30  60  40  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          55  22  32  25  /  40  50  30  10
HOBBS NM                   42  21  29  22  /  50  60  50  10
MARFA TX                   68  30  44  27  /  20  40  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    45  23  27  23  /  50  60  50  10
ODESSA TX                  44  23  28  24  /  50  60  50  10
WINK TX                    54  26  33  26  /  40  60  40  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy
     County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
     Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening to
     Noon CST /11 AM MST/ Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MST Monday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

72/27

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