Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 020941

441 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015


See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.



Persistence rules. KMAF VWP shows the LLJ relaxing over the past few
hrs, w/GOES cloud products showing stratus has developed north into
the Permian Basin, w/MVFR cigs currently at KMAF. Models/buffer soundings
keep these cigs at KMAF, and possibly KINK, and persisting into the
late morning or even early afternoon. A low- based cu field is expected
to develop everywhere but KHOB/KINK, where soundings to not reach convective
temps, w/little chances of convection. A 30+kt LLJ is forecast to redevelop
near the end of the forecast period near KFST, w/redevelopment of stratus
possible at KMAF near the end of the forecast period.




A morning height analysis reveals a persistent pattern across the
Conus with an upper ridge nosing into our region from the west and a
large trough stretching from the Great Lakes down to Florida. At the
surface, moist, southeasterly flow continues off the Gulf of Mexico
as evidenced by the 60 degree dewpoints and low clouds moving north.
This general pattern will stay in tact into this weekend with a few
minor day to day differences. Today looks mostly dry for the area
until this evening when a disturbance moves south across the TX
Panhandle. Much of the convective activity will remain north of our
area, but outflow boundaries could push a few showers and storms
into the northern Permian Basin and SE NM. An instability axis will
develop across NM and far West Texas as we head toward the weekend.
This will bring a better chance for rain to the Guadalupe Mountains
and surrounding areas.  Will also need to monitor convective
activity to the north Friday night as it may head south and affect
parts of the area early Saturday morning.

Will go below lowest temperature guidance once again today for the
Permian Basin as the ground remains wet from the heavy rain a couple
days ago. Expect similar conditions Friday as clouds and moisture
increase. The 4th of July still looks mild with highs a few degrees
below normal and a chance of rain across the higher terrain.

The beginning of next week is starting to look more interesting.
The GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF have decent agreement and now show a
cold front slowly making its way south across the Southern Plains
Monday and Tuesday. Should this verify, rain chances will need to
be increased and temperatures brought down.





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