Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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080
FXUS64 KMAF 251100
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
Westerly winds will pickup this morning, and increase again further
this afternoon to the 15 to 25kt range, with gusts perhaps as high
as 35kt.  Winds will subside around 26/01Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015/

A very active pattern will bring more windy conditions over the
next several days then much cooler weather next week. The upper
level storm system that brought showers and thunderstorms to
eastern portions of the region yesterday has moved into the Great
Lakes. Meanwhile...another upper trough has begun to dig over the
Great Basin this morning. This system is expected to cut off from
the main flow over the weekend and slowly drift across the
Southern Plains early next week.

Expect more windy and dry conditions the next couple afternoons as
a sfc low develops and intensifies over the TX Panhandle. Winds
will likely reach high wind criteria tomorrow afternoon in the
Guadalupe Mountains so will issue a High Wind Watch there. Wind
advisories may also be needed later for the adjacent plains. Fire
danger will remain elevated with the dry air and strong winds, but
high temperatures should only rise to near normal this weekend.
Temperatures may even cool a few degrees Sunday across SE NM
behind a Pacific front. See the fire wx discussion below for more
information concerning the next 2 days.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible beginning late Sunday as
the upper trough approaches. This storm system is expected to pass
just to our north so the best rain chances will remain north and
east of the region through Monday. Wrap around moisture may bring
a better chance of showers to the area Monday night and Tuesday. A
cold front will arrive late Monday ushering in much colder air for
this time of year. Strong CAA followed by a sfc ridge is expected
to bring near record cold temperatures to the area Wednesday
morning.

Upper level ridging builds in mid to late week with warming
temperatures and mostly dry conditions.

FIRE WEATHER...

Dry air will remain over the forecast area today and Sunday.  Since
an upper level storm system will move over New Mexico Sunday and
stay there through Monday, gusty westerly winds will continue to
affect the region through Monday.  RH/s are expected to drop to
around 10 percent over portions of the Presidio Valley and Big Bend
region where the warmest temperatures will occur.  Since 20 foot
wind speeds will not rise above 20 mph sustained very long in these
areas, only near critical fire weather conditions area expected
there.  The strongest 20 foot winds are expected over the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, Van Horn area, SE NM Plains and Upper Trans
Pecos.  Although RH/s will drop to near 10 to 15 percent in these
areas, a Fire Danger Statement will be issued for this afternoon
into early evening due to near normal high temperatures, greenup of
foliage and ERCs below 50.  Locations along and west of a Lamesa to
Wink to Alpine line will be included in the affected area.  Recovery
tonight will be fair to good.

It will be windier Sunday as a belt of stronger mid level winds
spreads across the region at the base of the upper low over NM.
The warmest temps and lowest minimum afternoon RH/s will be over the
Presidio Valley and Big Bend region again.  20 foot wind speeds will
be 20 mph or greater for 5 to 7 hours over most of the forecast area
to the north of the Presidio Valley and Big Bend region from late
Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon.  However, RH/s will start
rising over the Guadalupe Mountains, SE NM Plains and the Upper
Trans Pecos Sunday afternoon due to a Pacific cold front moving into
the area.  In addition, high temperatures will still be near normal
levels, much of the rest of the area had rain Friday and ERCs will
still be less than 50.  Think another Fire Danger Statement will be
utilized due to the low end threat of fires starting/spreading.
Windy conditions will persist Monday, but will winds will not be as
strong as Sunday or even Saturday.  A stronger cold front will move
into the area and push south through the Rio Grande by early
Tuesday.  Fire weather conditions will be much less elevated through
midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 82  53  80  51  /   0   0  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              85  55  85  56  /   0   0  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                82  52  75  49  /   0   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  88  58  89  57  /   0   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           84  55  84  54  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          73  50  67  44  /   0   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   78  50  75  47  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   75  43  75  47  /   0   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    83  54  83  54  /   0   0  10  20
ODESSA TX                  82  55  82  53  /   0   0  10  20
WINK TX                    84  52  82  52  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

67/29

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