Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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109
FXUS64 KMAF 022057
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
257 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Fog and low clouds have once again held in place keeping
temperatures well below normal across the area. Fortunately most
locations have risen above freezing, and with the help of
increasing southerly flow temperatures should continue to climb
eliminating the threat for freezing fog and any ice accumulation.

I know we keep saying this, but tomorrow we should finally see a
significant warm up with temperatures reaching into the 60s.
Models suggest temperatures could be even warmer but mostly cloudy
skies may limit daytime heating. An upper level low will move east
into Mexico and combined with a right entrance jet region over
west Texas will provide enough instability for scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms to develop Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Temperatures will be warm enough for all precipitation to remain
liquid.

Wednesday will be a different story as the next strong cold front
arrives. High temperatures will be seen east of the Pecos River
Wednesday morning and steadily fall through the afternoon and
night while highs west of the Pecos will be seen closer to their
normal diurnal time. Temperatures behind the front will quickly
fall below freezing meaning precipitation will change from rain,
to freezing rain/sleet/snow as the surface cold pool deepens and
the elevated warm layer erodes throughout the day. The best chance
for precipitation will be immediately behind the front where
isentropic lift will be greatest, then will diminish overnight as
low level lift diminishes and the upper jet moves east. The
biggest threat right now appears to be ice accumulation from
freezing rain and sleet making roads hazardous.

Thursday will be the coldest day with a slow warming trend
expected Friday into the weekend. The main forecast concern for
the weekend will be the speed of an upper ridge over the western
U.S. Current models show this feature to be slow moving which
could delay the warm southerly return flow and prolong cold
temperatures currently forecast.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 38  66  41  43  /  10  10  30  40
BIG SPRING TX              39  68  43  43  /  10  10  30  50
CARLSBAD NM                39  66  39  50  /  10  10  10  30
DRYDEN TX                  43  69  48  61  /  10   0  20  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           43  72  46  53  /  10  10  40  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          46  57  37  48  /  20  20  20  30
HOBBS NM                   36  62  37  41  /  10  10  10  40
MARFA TX                   39  65  40  56  /  10  30  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    40  68  43  46  /  10  10  30  40
ODESSA TX                  40  67  44  47  /  10  10  30  40
WINK TX                    39  69  43  51  /  10  10  30  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/10

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