Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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479
FXUS64 KMAF 011718
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1218 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. An approaching upper level
storm system from the southern Rockies will spark at least isolated
thunderstorms across the mountains this afternoon and tonight.
Some of these storms could move eastward this evening and
overnight into the southeast New Mexico Plains to the western
Permian Basin of west Texas. Confidence was not yet enough to
mention tsra at any of the terminals except KCNM. Will insert
a PROB 30 group for VFR tsra with gusty and variable winds at KCNM
in the 03z to 09z Saturday time frame. Will continue to monitor.
Generally southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph is expected with some
higher gusts through this evening.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field by late morning, w/bases
4.5-6 kft agl. Best chances of convection will be at KCNM, closer
to the higher terrain.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is over the Great Lakes region and an upper
low is over Arizona.  This upper pattern has put the CWA under
northerly to westerly flow aloft.  Temperatures this afternoon will
be near normal with highs in the 90s across most areas.  Showers and
thunderstorms are possible today across the higher terrain and areas
along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos.

As the upper low/shortwave trough over Arizona moves eastward,
chances of rain and thunderstorms will increase across the area
Friday night into Saturday.  Temperatures on Saturday are expected
to warm up by a couple of degrees.  The shortwave will move over
Oklahoma on Sunday with precipitation chances across the area
beginning to decrease.  Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm
up into the triple digits for parts of the Permian Basin.

The upper ridge will remain over the region through next week but
will be somewhat flattened out by upper troughs moving over the
northern part of the country.  A slight chance of rain and storms
will remain present through the extended forecast but will mostly
remain across western areas and the higher terrain.  Temperatures
will be near or in the triple digits for the first part of the week
across the Permian Basin then cool into the mid to upper 90s by the
end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  96  75 100 /  10  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       74  98  72 100 /  30  20  20  10
Dryden                         74  98  76 100 /  10  10  20  20
Fort Stockton                  73  97  75 102 /  20  20  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 66  88  70  92 /  40  30  20  20
Hobbs                          70  96  71  97 /  20  20  20  10
Marfa                          65  89  64  92 /  30  30  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           74  97  75 101 /  10  10  20  20
Odessa                         74  97  75 101 /  10  10  20  20
Wink                           75  99  74 103 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44

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