Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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929
FXUS64 KMAF 281924
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
224 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS UPPER
PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, PRESIDIO VALLEY, THE LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND BIG BEND
AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A MOISTURE BOUNDARY. DON`T EXPECT SEVERE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SMALL AND UPPER LIFT
WILL BE LACKING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WEST WITH THE CWA
UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL US DURING THE LATER
PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVING OVER/NEAR
THE CWA. AS A RESULT, UPPER LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AND
MODELS ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE MCS COMING INTO THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND NORTHERN LEA COUNTY MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT.
SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR IMPRESSIVE SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS COMPLEX AS IT
REACHES THE AREA. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  69  95  70  93  /  10  10  30   0
CARLSBAD NM                    68  95  69  95  /  10  10  20  10
DRYDEN TX                      71  95  72  93  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               67  93  69  93  /  20  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              65  89  67  87  /  10  10  20  10
HOBBS NM                       66  93  67  93  /  10  20  30  10
MARFA TX                       55  88  60  86  /  20  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        68  95  69  93  /  10  10  30   0
ODESSA TX                      68  95  70  93  /  10  10  30   0
WINK TX                        69  97  70  95  /  10  10  30   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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