Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 231934

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
234 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

Thunderstorms are once again firing in northern Mexico this
afternoon and may drift over the Rio Grande into the Big Bend and
lower Trans Pecos this afternoon. A few storms may become strong
but very weak shear means a low probability of them becoming
severe. An upper low over north central Mexico will move east
continuing rain chances in our southern CWA through tonight before
westerly flow brings drier air tomorrow. Winds may be briefly
strong in the Guadalupe Mountains, but the threat is too marginal
and brief to warrant issuing a High Wind Warning.

Temperatures are still expected to reach some of their highest
values of the year by Monday with low to mid 90s across much of
the area and perhaps a few triple digit readings along the Rio
Grande. Another large upper low will move into the Rockies on
Tuesday, lowering heights and allowing temperatures to fall back a
few degrees. A dryline will set up across the central Permian
Basin Tuesday afternoon causing scattered dryline thunderstorms
to develop in the eastern Permian Basin mainly east of Midland.

We are certainly in a progressive pattern as a fourth upper low
approaches the area, moving into the Four Corners region late in
the week. The track of this low appears favorable for backing
upper flow from the south, pulling moisture as far west as
southeast New Mexico and the Davis Mountains. Some models are
also showing a weak front dropping south Friday with surface
convergence along this boundary enhancing precip chances.



Several days of increased fire danger expected to start off the new
week. An upper level trough currently over the Great Basin will move
into the Plains Sunday. This system will drag a sfc trough through
the region early Sunday, veering winds to the southwest and west
behind it. Temperatures will climb to around 10 degrees above normal
as rh`s fall to critical levels during the afternoon. 20 to 30 kt
winds will mix to the surface across the Guadalupe Mountains and
adjacent plains. Even though borderline Red Flag, fuels have not
greened up enough in these areas to forgo a warning. Will upgrade
the current watch to a Red Flag Warning.

Monday looks very similar as another storm system takes shape to our
west. Much of the same area looks to be affected, but will hold off
on any watches for now given the products already in effect. The
next storm system ejects onto the Plains Tuesday with fire weather
concerns spreading across much of the area. More on that as we get


Big Spring                     60  88  58  88 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       57  88  57  89 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         62  91  61  92 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  61  90  60  92 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 56  77  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          53  85  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          46  81  47  82 /  20   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           61  90  59  92 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         62  90  60  92 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           60  93  59  95 /  10   0   0   0


.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
     Sunday for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54



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