Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 171114

614 AM CDT Sun May 17 2015

See aviation discussion below.


Mainly VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals. Thunderstorms are expected to remain
east of all the terminals through the TAF period with a few mid clouds
and increasing high clouds. Winds should remain light through late
morning and then become southwest at generally 10 to 15 mph and gusty
this afternoon. There is some chance that MVFR conditions may
develop toward the end of the TAF period at some of the terminals.
Later shifts will monitor.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT Sun May 17 2015/

The upper air pattern this year certainly has a different look to
it than that seen in recent years. Previous years have had an
upper ridge over the western U.S. bringing hot temperatures and
dry air to west Texas and eastern New Mexico but so far this year
we have had a persistent trough, keeping upper level flow
southwesterly and providing a continued chance for rain and
near normal temperatures.

This scenario will play out the next seven days as one upper low
after another moves into the Great Basin providing rain chances
all week. Today will be the lone exception as a departing upper
low pushes convection east of the CWA, however another low
develops to our west pulling moisture back against the mountains
giving us a chance for rain the remainder of the week. It will be
difficult providing too much detail on where and when rain will
fall since it will depend on the location and timing of the
surface dryline and passing upper level troughs...features models
are notoriously poor at handling very far in advance. Therefore
the forecast is somewhat generic with PoPs generally lower out
west and higher in the east where moisture is more likely to be
found. Instability and shear will be enough that any storms that
form could become severe as noted in the Day2 and Day3 outlooks
from SPC which show most of the area in a marginal or slight risk.
Flash flooding will also be possible with precipitable water
values at least one standard deviation above normal.







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