Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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224
FXUS64 KMAF 191121
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
521 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under mostly clear
skies.  Winds will generally less than 10 knots through the TAF
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Quiescent and dry conditions will prevail the next couple of days as
the flow aloft over the region becomes more zonal, and the cold
airmass over the area exits eastward under this regime.  Think the
gradual warmup will continue today, but be tempered somewhat by an
increase in high clouds.  However on Thursday, less cloud cover will
conspire with a developing surface trough developing south into the
area to vault temperatures a few degrees above normal, so have
tended readings toward the warmer guidance.  A weak cold front could
ease southward into the area Thursday night/Friday as a shortwave
trough approaches from the west, but think increasing cloud cover
will have more of an effect on high temps Friday afternoon than the
front.  Regardless of whether the front enters the forecast area or
not, it appears low level moisture will begin to increase over the
area Friday and Friday night.

As the aforementioned upper trough moves over the region Friday
night, expect convection to break out, but mainly over the
northeastern half or so of the forecast area.  Instability will be
limited, but still think there could be a few storms capable of
producing hail as mid level lapse rates will be 7.5 to 8 C/Km.
Therefore, will continue to mention gusty winds, hail and frequent
lightning strikes in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.  Precipitation
should shift east of the region Saturday morning, but will keep
chance PoPs going Saturday morning over extreme eastern portions of
the Permian Basin.

Temperatures will be a little milder than normal on Saturday and
Sunday morning, while high temperatures will be seasonal.  That is,
until another cold front moves through the area Sunday night
Monday.  Expect temperatures to remain a little below normal through
mid next week.  Rain chance will be negligible through the extended
forecast after Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  35  69  35  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              64  39  71  41  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                61  32  68  35  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  66  40  69  47  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  42  75  43  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  38  64  41  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   59  30  67  32  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   61  25  67  31  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  38  71  39  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  62  39  70  39  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    65  34  73  39  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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