Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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377
FXUS64 KMAF 281121
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with a S to SE wind across the area. May be a few
afternoon storms vicinity of CNM... PEQ... or FST but did not
include in TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over OK this morning will slide a little to the
east as an upper trough swings across the Northern Plains.  As the
trough passes to the east the ridge will shift back to the west by this
weekend becoming centered over the 4 corners region.  Ridge remains in
this location out through 240hrs.

Yesterday models were too eager to start cooling temps aloft but it
turned out to be the hottest day of the year at MAF with 103 degrees.
Pecos hit 106 and Wink hit 107 degrees. Therefore have bumped up
temps slightly for today and stayed to the warm side of guidance.
Part of the reason yesterday was so hot was because morning lows
only dropped to around 80 degrees in some locations. Will go
slightly over guidance again Wednesday as will have to see some
actual cooling before start lowering temps much. Overnight lows
should remain unseasonably warm. By Thursday 90s should become
more prevalent and continue through the weekend.

Best chance of storms will be over and adjacent to the mountains again
this afternoon and evening as good low level moisture... daytime
heating... and orographic lift combine.  A few storms over the same
locations on Wednesday with not much convection expected Thursday and
Friday.  With the upper ridge centered to the west potential exists for
shortwaves to come down into the area on NW flow and develop precip.
Currently best chance of rain for the Permian Basin looks to be
Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
029
FXUS64 KMAF 280811
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
311 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over OK this morning will slide a little to the
east as an upper trough swings across the Northern Plains.  As the
trough passes to the east the ridge will shift back to the west by this
weekend becoming centered over the 4 corners region.  Ridge remains in
this location out through 240hrs.

Yesterday models were too eager to start cooling temps aloft but it
turned out to be the hottest day of the year at MAF with 103 degrees.
Pecos hit 106 and Wink hit 107 degrees. Therefore have bumped up
temps slightly for today and stayed to the warm side of guidance.
Part of the reason yesterday was so hot was because morning lows
only dropped to around 80 degrees in some locations. Will go
slightly over guidance again Wednesday as will have to see some
actual cooling before start lowering temps much. Overnight lows
should remain unseasonably warm. By Thursday 90s should become
more prevalent and continue through the weekend.

Best chance of storms will be over and adjacent to the mountains again
this afternoon and evening as good low level moisture... daytime
heating... and orographic lift combine.  A few storms over the same
locations on Wednesday with not much convection expected Thursday and
Friday.  With the upper ridge centered to the west potential exists for
shortwaves to come down into the area on NW flow and develop precip.
Currently best chance of rain for the Permian Basin looks to be
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  99  76  99  75  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                   103  73 101  71  /  10  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                     103  77 101  76  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX              101  74  99  73  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              93  70  91  69  /  20  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                       99  72  96  70  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                       92  63  90  61  /  20  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX       101  75  99  74  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                     101  75  99  74  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                       105  76 102  74  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72
868
FXUS64 KMAF 280519
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions and southeasterly winds will prevail through the
next 24 hours at all TAF sites.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84
359
FXUS64 KMAF 280000
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
700 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

KMAF radar shows convection persisting a little longer than
previously anticipated, as triple-digit temps carry over into the
1st period. We`ll do a quick update to expand isolated coverage
into the evening hours, and update other parameters as necessary.
Updates out shortly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

There`s been little change in forecast reasoning with models
continuing to support a transitory substropical ridge over the
next few days, i.e., INVOF OK today-Wed and in the 4 Corners
region Fri/Sat. Convection in this pattern will again be mostly
favored in mtns/adjacent plains, but noticing some subtlies like
secondary mid level theta-e ridge axes and theta-e gradients may
help placement of PoPs. Today we expect an uptick in the mtns from
yesterday where theta-e gradient is in alignment with mtns, a few
high based showers are briefly possible across the PB and PoPs
will trend down Tue-Thu. We`re still keying in on the cooling
trend seen in the 1000-500mb thickness and 7h temps. Recently 7h
temps have been around 14C on 00Z MAF sounding with deterministic
model consensus that 7h temps will decrease to around 11C by
00Z/Fri which would yield high temps about 4-6 degrees cooler than
yesterday/today for most areas by Thur PM. There`s a better chance
of precip across the PB Sat/Sun with the NW position of the ridge,
even seen on DGEX. Subtropical ridge will attempt to move back ewd
late in the forecast which would start temps trending back up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  78 100  76  98  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    75 102  72 100  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      76 102  76  99  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               75 100  73  99  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              71  92  69  90  /  20  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                       73  99  71  96  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                       63  90  63  89  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        76 100  75  98  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      76 100  75  98  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                        77 103  76 100  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/44
760
FXUS64 KMAF 272247
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
547 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms could affect KCNM and KPEQ through 28/01Z, but
probability is too low to include.  Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and west Texas terminals
during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

There`s been little change in forecast reasoning with models
continuing to support a transitory substropical ridge over the
next few days, i.e., INVOF OK today-Wed and in the 4 Corners
region Fri/Sat. Convection in this pattern will again be mostly
favored in mtns/adjacent plains, but noticing some subtlies like
secondary mid level theta-e ridge axes and theta-e gradients may
help placement of PoPs. Today we expect an uptick in the mtns from
yesterday where theta-e gradient is in alignment with mtns, a few
high based showers are briefly possible across the PB and PoPs
will trend down Tue-Thu. We`re still keying in on the cooling
trend seen in the 1000-500mb thickness and 7h temps. Recently 7h
temps have been around 14C on 00Z MAF sounding with deterministic
model consensus that 7h temps will decrease to around 11C by
00Z/Fri which would yield high temps about 4-6 degrees cooler than
yesterday/today for most areas by Thur PM. There`s a better chance
of precip across the PB Sat/Sun with the NW position of the ridge,
even seen on DGEX. Subtropical ridge will attempt to move back ewd
late in the forecast which would start temps trending back up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  76 100  76  98  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    73 102  72 100  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      77 102  76  99  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               74 100  73  99  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              72  92  69  90  /  20  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                       73  99  71  96  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                       63  90  63  89  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        77 100  75  98  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      76 100  75  98  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                        77 103  76 100  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
160
FXUS64 KMAF 271916
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
216 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

There`s been little change in forecast reasoning with models
continuing to support a transitory substropical ridge over the
next few days, i.e., INVOF OK today-Wed and in the 4 Corners
region Fri/Sat. Convection in this pattern will again be mostly
favored in mtns/adjacent plains, but noticing some subtlies like
secondary mid level theta-e ridge axes and theta-e gradients may
help placement of PoPs. Today we expect an uptick in the mtns from
yesterday where theta-e gradient is in alignment with mtns, a few
high based showers are briefly possible across the PB and PoPs
will trend down Tue-Thu. We`re still keying in on the cooling
trend seen in the 1000-500mb thickness and 7h temps. Recently 7h
temps have been around 14C on 00Z MAF sounding with deterministic
model consensus that 7h temps will decrease to around 11C by
00Z/Fri which would yield high temps about 4-6 degrees cooler than
yesterday/today for most areas by Thur PM. There`s a better chance
of precip across the PB Sat/Sun with the NW position of the ridge,
even seen on DGEX. Subtropical ridge will attempt to move back ewd
late in the forecast which would start temps trending back up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  76 100  76  98  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    73 102  72 100  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      77 102  76  99  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               74 100  73  99  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              72  92  69  90  /  20  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                       73  99  71  96  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                       63  90  63  89  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        77 100  75  98  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      76 100  75  98  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                        77 103  76 100  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
299
FXUS64 KMAF 271646
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1146 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...See Aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 11:45 AM CDT Monday...Expect VFR conditions to
continue with low level southeast flow. As of now...would expect
any convection that develops to be over the Davis and Guadalupe
Mtns remaining south and west of the TAF sites.

However...there is a caveat. Water Vapor imagery is indc a weak
wave moving WNW towards the CWA along with a mid level thetae
ridge. High resolution models do show convection reaching the
Permian Basin this aftn. However...with satl imagery not showing
any CU and no sfc boundary in the area to serve as a focus will
continue to leave out convection in the TAFs.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49
576
FXUS64 KMAF 271102
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals due to an upper ridge of high
pressure over the area. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in
the mountains this afternoon and this evening but should remain
west of the terminals.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Sub tropical ridge will continue to be the dominate wx feature
this week. An upper trough moving across from the NW will displace
the center of the ridge to the east and then it will build back to
the west as the trough passes. By late in the week the center of
the ridge will shift to the 4 corners region.

Near persistence is going to be hard to beat today... expect another
hot day with widespread readings of 100 degrees or more.  However as
the center of upper ridge will no longer be on top of the area
should see a slight decrease in temps the next couple of days as
850mb temps begin to fall.  Look for a minimum of temps being mid
week before warming again toward next weekend.

Afternoon and evening storms over the mountains and adjacent plains
still looks to be a good bet again today as models continue to break
out precip in this location.  Some over the mountains again Tuesday
but with less coverage.  The upper pattern switch to NW flow aloft
as ridge shifts west would be more favorable for bringing precip
down into the Permian Basin.  Right now models are not developing
much precip from Wednesday on but some do hint of a possibility of a
MCS coming down into the NE late in the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$


12/72
041
FXUS64 KMAF 270736
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
236 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Sub tropical ridge will continue to be the dominate wx feature
this week. An upper trough moving across from the NW will displace
the center of the ridge to the east and then it will build back to
the west as the trough passes. By late in the week the center of
the ridge will shift to the 4 corners region.

Near persistence is going to be hard to beat today... expect another
hot day with widespread readings of 100 degrees or more.  However as
the center of upper ridge will no longer be on top of the area
should see a slight decrease in temps the next couple of days as
850mb temps begin to fall.  Look for a minimum of temps being mid
week before warming again toward next weekend.

Afternoon and evening storms over the mountains and adjacent plains
still looks to be a good bet again today as models continue to break
out precip in this location.  Some over the mountains again Tuesday
but with less coverage.  The upper pattern switch to NW flow aloft
as ridge shifts west would be more favorable for bringing precip
down into the Permian Basin.  Right now models are not developing
much precip from Wednesday on but some do hint of a possibility of a
MCS coming down into the NE late in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                 100  76  99  75  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                   104  71 102  70  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                     104  76 102  75  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX              102  74  99  73  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              94  68  92  68  /  10  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                       99  70  98  70  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       92  61  90  60  /  20  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX       101  75 100  74  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                     101  75 100  75  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                       105  75 103  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/72
880
FXUS64 KMAF 270448
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1148 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals underneath a ridge. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop in the mountains this afternoon and this
evening but should remain west of the terminals.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms this evening will likely stay west of all
terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

Summer mid/upper level circulation continues to be dominated by
the presence of the subtropical ridge. Today the ridge is to the
north and easterly mid/upper level flow is evident on 12Z MAF
sounding and water vapor imagery. Water vapor indicates that the
mid level theta-e ridge axis is well to the w with even drier
mid/upper level air moving w into the Trans Pecos region. The
subtropical ridge will develop farther e into Tue resulting in
modest height falls. So Monday will be probably be the last of the
hottest days experienced lately and Monday`s temps will only be a
degree or 2 cooler than today. Through thickness/layer temp
considerations (hypsometric) a decreasing trend is evident,
especially as seen time series of said thickness/layer temps into
next Fri. It will still be hot, just not as hot. NAEFS/GEFS
ensemble depiction of cooling is seen in the decrease of 7h temps
from the 3rd +standard deviation to normal to +1. Finally, MOS
guidance depicts this as well. Even though temps cool some we
don`t expect any precip across the PB thru at least Thur, low
order slight chance/chance PoPs will be confined to the
mtns/adjacent plains. The subtropical ridge will build w-nw by
late in the week/weekend which may result in a brief up tick in
PoPs across n-nw PB then. Looking at the 6-10/8-14 day 5h height
anomalies there`s an indication of broad mid level ridge axis
slightly to the w suggesting more dry wx is likely.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
885
FXUS64 KMAF 262250
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
550 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms this evening will likely stay west of all
terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

Summer mid/upper level circulation continues to be dominated by
the presence of the subtropical ridge. Today the ridge is to the
north and easterly mid/upper level flow is evident on 12Z MAF
sounding and water vapor imagery. Water vapor indicates that the
mid level theta-e ridge axis is well to the w with even drier
mid/upper level air moving w into the Trans Pecos region. The
subtropical ridge will develop farther e into Tue resulting in
modest height falls. So Monday will be probably be the last of the
hottest days experienced lately and Monday`s temps will only be a
degree or 2 cooler than today. Through thickness/layer temp
considerations (hypsometric) a decreasing trend is evident,
especially as seen time series of said thickness/layer temps into
next Fri. It will still be hot, just not as hot. NAEFS/GEFS
ensemble depiction of cooling is seen in the decrease of 7h temps
from the 3rd +standard deviation to normal to +1. Finally, MOS
guidance depicts this as well. Even though temps cool some we
don`t expect any precip across the PB thru at least Thur, low
order slight chance/chance PoPs will be confined to the
mtns/adjacent plains. The subtropical ridge will build w-nw by
late in the week/weekend which may result in a brief up tick in
PoPs across n-nw PB then. Looking at the 6-10/8-14 day 5h height
anomalies there`s an indication of broad mid level ridge axis
slightly to the w suggesting more dry wx is likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  75  99  74  99  /   0  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                    74 102  73 100  /  10  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                      76 101  79  99  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               74 100  74  99  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              69  93  69  92  /  30  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                       70  98  71  97  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       64  92  63  90  /  20  30  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        74 100  74  99  /   0  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                      76  99  75  98  /   0  10  10   0
WINK TX                        76 104  74 102  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
048
FXUS64 KMAF 261845
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
145 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Summer mid/upper level circulation continues to be dominated by
the presence of the subtropical ridge. Today the ridge is to the
north and easterly mid/upper level flow is evident on 12Z MAF
sounding and water vapor imagery. Water vapor indicates that the
mid level theta-e ridge axis is well to the w with even drier
mid/upper level air moving w into the Trans Pecos region. The
subtropical ridge will develop farther e into Tue resulting in
modest height falls. So Monday will be probably be the last of the
hottest days experienced lately and Monday`s temps will only be a
degree or 2 cooler than today. Through thickess/layer temp
considerations (hypsometric) a decreasing trend is evident,
especially as seen time series of said thickess/layer temps into
next Fri. It will still be hot, just not as hot. NAEFS/GEFS
ensemble depiction of cooling is seen in the decrease of 7h temps
from the 3rd +standard deviation to normal to +1. Finally, MOS
guidance depicts this as well. Even though temps cool some we
don`t expect any precip across the PB thru at least Thur, low
order slight chance/chance PoPs will be confined to the
mtns/adjacent plains. The subtropical ridge will build w-nw by
late in the week/weekend which may result in a brief up tick in
PoPs across n-nw PB then. Looking at the 6-10/8-14 day 5h height
anomalies there`s an indication of broad mid level ridge axis
slightly to the w suggesting more dry wx is likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  75  99  74  99  /   0  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                    74 102  73 100  /  10  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                      76 101  79  99  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               74 100  74  99  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              69  93  69  92  /  30  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                       70  98  71  97  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       64  92  63  90  /  20  30  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        74 100  74  99  /   0  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                      76  99  75  98  /   0  10  10   0
WINK TX                        76 104  74 102  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
975
FXUS64 KMAF 261719
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 12:15 PM CDT Sunday...VFR conditions are
expected through the next 24 hours across all TAF sites.
Convection that develops over the Davis and Guadalupe Mtns in the
aftn/evening hours will stay to the south and west of all TAF
sites. With the hot weather pilots should check the density
altitude.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

33
489
FXUS64 KMAF 261049
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
549 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals underneath a ridge. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop in the mountains this afternoon and this
evening but should remain west of the terminals.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the Panhandle this morning will begin to
be displaced eastward Monday by upper trough moving across from the
NW.  As the trough passes east the ridge will be pushed back to the
west later in the week becoming centered over the 4 corners region.

Surface temps at or above 100 degrees will continue for most of the
area today and Monday.  Could see highs pushing 108 degrees today on
parts of the Rio Grande with readings up to 106 along the Pecos
River Valley.  However should see a slight dip in temps after the
upper ridge is displaced.  By the middle of next week highs in the
mid to upper 90s will become more common.  A surface trough out west
will keep a S to SE wind across the area and dewpts in the 50s and
60s.  This will keep overnight temps up.

Satellite shows few clouds over the center of TX as the ridge pushes
the convection out to the edges.  Storms should develop over the
mountains and adjacent plains this afternoon as good low level
moisture... day time heating... and orographic lift combine.  Some
model qpf does try to develop a little precip over the Eastern
Permian Basin but this looks doubtful... most precip should remain
west of the Pecos River.  Similar rain area on Monday and Tuesday
but precip may develop farther east into Lea county.  As the ridge
sets up over the west this could put the region into NW flow aloft
which would be more favorable for bringing rain down into the area.
This would favor the northern CWA but currently model qpf is not
bringing any MCS down into the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/72
773
FXUS64 KMAF 260814
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
314 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the Panhandle this morning will begin to
be displaced eastward Monday by upper trough moving across from the
NW.  As the trough passes east the ridge will be pushed back to the
west later in the week becoming centered over the 4 corners region.

Surface temps at or above 100 degrees will continue for most of the
area today and Monday.  Could see highs pushing 108 degrees today on
parts of the Rio Grande with readings up to 106 along the Pecos
River Valley.  However should see a slight dip in temps after the
upper ridge is displaced.  By the middle of next week highs in the
mid to upper 90s will become more common.  A surface trough out west
will keep a S to SE wind across the area and dewpts in the 50s and
60s.  This will keep overnight temps up.

Satellite shows few clouds over the center of TX as the ridge pushes
the convection out to the edges.  Storms should develop over the
mountains and adjacent plains this afternoon as good low level
moisture... day time heating... and orographic lift combine.  Some
model qpf does try to develop a little precip over the Eastern
Permian Basin but this looks doubtful... most precip should remain
west of the Pecos River.  Similar rain area on Monday and Tuesday
but precip may develop farther east into Lea county.  As the ridge
sets up over the west this could put the region into NW flow aloft
which would be more favorable for bringing rain down into the area.
This would favor the northern CWA but currently model qpf is not
bringing any MCS down into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                 100  75  99  74  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                   103  74 102  73  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                     104  76 101  79  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX              102  74 100  74  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              94  69  93  69  /  30  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                      100  70  98  71  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       93  64  92  63  /  20  20  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX       102  74 100  74  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                     102  76  99  75  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                       106  76 104  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/72
097
FXUS64 KMAF 260453
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1153 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals underneath an upper ridge the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms that develop in the mountains Sunday afternoon
should remain west of the terminals.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

UPDATE...

Update to add a chance of rain farther east over the Stockton
Plateau and south through the Big Bend region this evening.

DISCUSSION...

Convection continues to form from the Stockton Plateau, westward
through the Glass and Davis mountains and over the Big Bend region
along and east of a surface trough.  Intense surface heating,
although waning, of a modestly moist airmass appears to be enough to
keep convection going for a few more hours.  Not expecting severe
storms due to lack of shear, but a dry subcloud layer could result
in a few storms producing gusty winds around 50 mph.  Will send an
update shortly.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
356
FXUS64 KMAF 260010
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
710 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...

Update to add a chance of rain farther east over the Stockton
Plateau and south through the Big Bend region this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convection continues to form from the Stockton Plateau, westward
through the Glass and Davis mountains and over the Big Bend region
along and east of a surface trough.  Intense surface heating,
although waning, of a modestly moist airmass appears to be enough to
keep convection going for a few more hours.  Not expecting severe
storms due to lack of shear, but a dry subcloud layer could result
in a few storms producing gusty winds around 50 mph.  Will send an
update shortly.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  75 101  76 100  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                    72 102  71 102  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      77 102  75 101  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               75 101  76 100  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              71  94  69  93  /  20  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                       71  99  71  96  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       63  93  64  92  /  30  20  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        75 101  75 100  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                      76 101  77  99  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                        77 105  78 103  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
585
FXUS64 KMAF 252307
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
607 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms
will be around the FST area for the next couple of hours. Winds
will be out of the south to southeast throughout the period and
will occasionally become elevated and gusty.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 PM CDT Saturday...little change in the
sensible weather for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico for the
next week to 10 days with hot and muggy weather continuing.

The ridge centered in the Southern Plains will get nudged slightly
east as a trough moves into the Pacific NW. The trough will ride
over the ridge and deepen in the Eastern US. This will push the
ridge west into the Four Corners area by the middle/end of the
upcoming work week. Another trough off the west coast will nudge
the ridge center back east over the Southern Plains next weekend.

With a surface trough and mid level thetae ridge along the Davis
and Guadalupe Mtns...and intense afternoon heating...the threat of
convection during the aftn/evening remains over the Mountains and
adjacent Plains thru the weekend and into next week. Further east
in the Plains the chance of convection will significantly less.
With a 40 degree dew pt depression there will be the threat of
gusty winds with the convection along with locally heavy rain. Not
much of a hail threat with the 12Z MAF RAOB showing H7 temps near
15C and H5 temps near -5C.

Temps into next week will be near the 100 degree mark in the
Plains...80s/90s in the Mtns...and 100-105 in the Trans Pecos and
Rio Grand Valleys. Any day to day changes will be subtle. There
might be a few degrees of cooling the middle of next week as the
ridge becomes centered over the Four Corners area.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
633
FXUS64 KMAF 251931
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
231 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 PM CDT Saturday...little change in the
sensible weather for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico for the
next week to 10 days with hot and muggy weather continuing.

The ridge centered in the Southern Plains will get nudged slightly
east as a trough moves into the Pacific NW. The trough will ride
over the ridge and deepen in the Eastern US. This will push the
ridge west into the Four Corners area by the middle/end of the
upcoming work week. Another trough off the west coast will nudge
the ridge center back east over the Southern Plains next weekend.

With a surface trough and mid level thetae ridge along the Davis
and Guadalupe Mtns...and intense afternoon heating...the threat of
convection during the aftn/evening remains over the Mountains and
adjacent Plains thru the weekend and into next week. Further east
in the Plains the chance of convection will significantly less.
With a 40 degree dew pt depression there will be the threat of
gusty winds with the convection along with locally heavy rain. Not
much of a hail threat with the 12Z MAF RAOB showing H7 temps near
15C and H5 temps near -5C.

Temps into next week will be near the 100 degree mark in the
Plains...80s/90s in the Mtns...and 100-105 in the Trans Pecos and
Rio Grand Valleys. Any day to day changes will be subtle. There
might be a few degrees of cooling the middle of next week as the
ridge becomes centered over the Four Corners area.

Strobin
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  75 101  76 100  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                    72 102  71 102  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      77 102  75 101  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               75 101  76 100  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              71  94  69  93  /  20  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                       71  99  71  96  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       63  93  64  92  /  30  20  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        75 101  75 100  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                      76 101  77  99  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                        77 105  78 103  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/33
891
FXUS64 KMAF 251710
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1210 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Isold tstms will be possible near the mtns today, but with easterly
mid level steering flow they would have little chance to move near
CNM. So VFR conditions will prevail as the subtropical ridge
continues to dominate with very warm mid level temperatures.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
244
FXUS64 KMAF 251137
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
637 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with few clouds under the upper ridge. Expect to see some
afternoon storms mainly over the mountains... could affect CNM
and FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level high pressure will remain anchored over the southern
Plains this weekend and then shift eastward into the Mississippi
Valley next Monday through Wednesday. At the surface a lee trough
is forecast to persist from eastern New Mexico south into the
eastern slopes of the mountains through the middle of next week.
Best chance of thunderstorms through the middle of next week will
be near and east of the persistent surface trough in the
orographically favored Guadalupe and Davis Mountains in intense
afternoon and early evening heating. Further away from the surface
trough and the mountains, more isolated activity is expected
nearby in portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains, upper
Trans Pecos Region and Van Horn Highway 54 Corridor of west Texas.
Little to no precipitation is expected in the Permian Basin for
the next several days, furthest away from the aforementioned
features.

By next Thursday an upper level trough is forecast to track
across the northern states. This trough could send a weak cold
front south into the southern Plains and increase precipitation
chances some areawide by next Friday through the next weekend.
This will need to be monitored.

For temperatures will follow persistence through early next week
with triple digit temperatures expected in many areas of the
plains with 80s and 90s in the mountains. Some cooling is
expected by the middle of next week through the end of next week per
forecast 850 millibar temperature forecast and potential frontal
passage toward the end of next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
306
FXUS64 KMAF 250739
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
239 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level high pressure will remain anchored over the southern
Plains this weekend and then shift eastward into the Mississippi
Valley next Monday through Wednesday. At the surface a lee trough
is forecast to persist from eastern New Mexico south into the
eastern slopes of the mountains through the middle of next week.
Best chance of thunderstorms through the middle of next week will
be near and east of the persistent surface trough in the
orographically favored Guadalupe and Davis Mountains in intense
afternoon and early evening heating. Further away from the surface
trough and the mountains, more isolated activity is expected
nearby in portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains, upper
Trans Pecos Region and Van Horn Highway 54 Corridor of west Texas.
Little to no precipitation is expected in the Permian Basin for
the next several days, furthest away from the aforementioned
features.

By next Thursday an upper level trough is forecast to track
across the northern states. This trough could send a weak cold
front south into the southern Plains and increase precipitation
chances some areawide by next Friday through the next weekend.
This will need to be monitored.

For temperatures will follow persistence through early next week
with triple digit temperatures expected in many areas of the
plains with 80s and 90s in the mountains. Some cooling is
expected by the middle of next week through the end of next week per
forecast 850 millibar temperature forecast and potential frontal
passage toward the end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                 100  77 102  77  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                   103  73 104  70  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                     104  77 105  77  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX              101  74 102  76  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              95  72  96  70  /  30  20  30  30
HOBBS NM                       99  72 100  70  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       93  64  94  63  /  40  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX       101  76 102  76  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                     101  76 102  77  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                       104  76 104  78  /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/12
502
FXUS64 KMAF 250540
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1240 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR through the period with few clouds and southerly wind. May
see afternoon storms over the mountains... could affect CNM.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Subtropical ridge is centered across the S Plains today resulting
in a se-e mid level component which pushes the mid level theta-e
ridge axis farther w. As such the potential for convection will
decrease, even across the recently more favored areas of the
mtns/adjacent plains. This will more or less be the set-up thru
Sunday, although PoPs may tick-up slightly Sunday PM across the
mtns in assocn with some minor height falls there. Otherwise 7h
temps will remain about 14C, so the unseasonably hot wx will
persist thru the weekend. Sunday/Monday will probably be the
hottest days of this forecast when deep layer moisture will be at
a forecast period minimum. Tue/Wed the mid level ridge will weaken
and be farther n and 7h temps will be about 2C cooler than
previous days. There`s a more substantial pattern change in the
offing from next Thursday into weekend as the subtropical ridge
builds much farther to w-nw. This will provide a least a temporary
window for NW flow aloft and increased potential for storms across
the PB, along with more seasonal temperatures.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
196
FXUS64 KMAF 242316
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
616 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms
will likely impact the CNM area for an hour or two this evening
before dissipating. Winds will generally be out of the south to
southeast through the period with some elevated winds this evening
and Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Subtropical ridge is centered across the S Plains today resulting
in a se-e mid level component which pushes the mid level theta-e
ridge axis farther w. As such the potential for convection will
decrease, even across the recently more favored areas of the
mtns/adjacent plains. This will more or less be the set-up thru
Sunday, although PoPs may tick-up slightly Sunday PM across the
mtns in assocn with some minor height falls there. Otherwise 7h
temps will remain about 14C, so the unseasonably hot wx will
persist thru the weekend. Sunday/Monday will probably be the
hottest days of this forecast when deep layer moisture will be at
a forecast period minimum. Tue/Wed the mid level ridge will weaken
and be farther n and 7h temps will be about 2C cooler than
previous days. There`s a more substantial pattern change in the
offing from next Thursday into weekend as the subtropical ridge
builds much farther to w-nw. This will provide a least a temporary
window for NW flow aloft and increased potential for storms across
the PB, along with more seasonal temperatures.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
561
FXUS64 KMAF 241922
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
222 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Subtropical ridge is centered across the S Plains today resulting
in a se-e mid level component which pushes the mid level theta-e
ridge axis farther w. As such the potential for convection will
decrease, even across the recently more favored areas of the
mtns/adjacent plains. This will more or less be the set-up thru
Sunday, although PoPs may tick-up slightly Sunday PM across the
mtns in assocn with some minor height falls there. Otherwise 7h
temps will remain about 14C, so the unseasonably hot wx will
persist thru the weekend. Sunday/Monday will probably be the
hottest days of this forecast when deep layer moisture will be at
a forecast period minimum. Tue/Wed the mid level ridge will weaken
and be farther n and 7h temps will be about 2C cooler than
previous days. There`s a more substantial pattern change in the
offing from next Thursday into weekend as the subtropical ridge
builds much farther to w-nw. This will provide a least a temporary
window for NW flow aloft and increased potential for storms across
the PB, along with more seasonal temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  77 101  77 102  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    73 102  73 103  /  20  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      77 104  77 105  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               73 101  74 102  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              71  95  72  96  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                       72  99  72 100  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                       63  93  65  94  /  30  30  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        75 101  76 102  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      76 101  76 102  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                        76 103  76 104  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
138
FXUS64 KMAF 241544
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1044 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Widespread late
morning/afternoon cu field will be possible, but most convection
should stay west.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level high pressure will remain anchored over the southern
Plains and Mississippi Valley through the middle of next week. At
the surface a lee trough is forecast to persist from eastern New
Mexico south into the eastern slopes of the mountains. Best chance
of thunderstorms through the middle of next week will be near and
east of the persistent surface trough in the orographically
favored Guadalupe and Davis Mountains in intense afternoon and
early evening heating. Further away from the surface trough and
the mountains more isolated activity is expected nearby in
portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains and upper Trans Pecos
Region of west Texas. Little to no precipitation is expected in
the Permian Basin for the next several days, furthest away from
the aforementioned features.

By next Wednesday or Thursday an upper level trough is forecast to
track across the northern states. This trough could send a weak
cold front south into the central and or southern Plains and
increase precipitation chances. This will need to be monitored.

For temperatures will follow persistence through early next week
triple digit temperatures expected in many areas of the plains
with 80s and 90s in the mountains. Slight cooling is expected
by the middle of next week per forecast 850 millibar temperature
forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
889
FXUS64 KMAF 241131
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
631 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with afternoon storms mainly over the higher elevations... CNM
will be the closest to these. S to SE wind will continue.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level high pressure will remain anchored over the southern
Plains and Mississippi Valley through the middle of next week. At
the surface a lee trough is forecast to persist from eastern New
Mexico south into the eastern slopes of the mountains. Best chance
of thunderstorms through the middle of next week will be near and
east of the persistent surface trough in the orographically
favored Guadalupe and Davis Mountains in intense afternoon and
early evening heating. Further away from the surface trough and
the mountains more isolated activity is expected nearby in
portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains and upper Trans Pecos
Region of west Texas. Little to no precipitation is expected in
the Permian Basin for the next several days, furthest away from
the aforementioned features.

By next Wednesday or Thursday an upper level trough is forecast to
track across the northern states. This trough could send a weak
cold front south into the central and or southern Plains and
increase precipitation chances. This will need to be monitored.

For temperatures will follow persistence through early next week
triple digit temperatures expected in many areas of the plains
with 80s and 90s in the mountains. Slight cooling is expected
by the middle of next week per forecast 850 millibar temperature
forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
518
FXUS64 KMAF 240757
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
257 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level high pressure will remain anchored over the southern
Plains and Mississippi Valley through the middle of next week. At
the surface a lee trough is forecast to persist from eastern New
Mexico south into the eastern slopes of the mountains. Best chance
of thunderstorms through the middle of next week will be near and
east of the persistent surface trough in the orographically
favored Guadalupe and Davis Mountains in intense afternoon and
early evening heating. Further away from the surface trough and
the mountains more isolated activity is expected nearby in
portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains and upper Trans Pecos
Region of west Texas. Little to no precipitation is expected in
the Permian Basin for the next several days, furthest away from
the aforementioned features.

By next Wednesday or Thursday an upper level trough is forecast to
track across the northern states. This trough could send a weak
cold front south into the central and or southern Plains and
increase precipitation chances. This will need to be monitored.

For temperatures will follow persistence through early next week
triple digit temperatures expected in many areas of the plains
with 80s and 90s in the mountains. Slight cooling is expected
by the middle of next week per forecast 850 millibar temperature
forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  98  75 100  75  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                   101  72 102  70  /  20  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                     100  75 104  76  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX              100  76 101  76  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              93  69  95  69  /  20  20  30  30
HOBBS NM                       98  72  97  72  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       93  63  93  63  /  30  30  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX       100  74 101  76  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      99  76 100  76  /   0  10  10   0
WINK TX                       102  77 103  79  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/12
114
FXUS64 KMAF 240539
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1239 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with a S/SE wind. Could be a few afternoon storms around
CNM... HOB... and PEQ.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Thursday...KMAF radar is showing a
few cells over the Davis and Guadalupe Mtns moving north.
Otherwise...hot and muggy weather rules across the CWA.

The persistent ridge over the Southern Plains will shift a little
east the next couple of days as a shortwave moves into the Pacific
Northwest. As the shortwave moves into the Northern Plains then
into the Eastern US the ridge will shift back west...but will
remain the dominant feature for the area. Intense sfc heating
along with a sfc trough and mid level thetae ridge along the mtns
will lead to isolated afternoon and evening convection over the
Davis and Guadalupe Mtns...and the adjacent Plains . With warm
mid level temps the main impacts from the convection will be gusty
winds and locally heavy rain. Elsewhere...it will mainly be dry
with near triple digit high temps through the extended forecast.

Another shortwave will move into the Pacific Northwest early next
week. This shortwave looks stronger...and as it moves into the
Eastern US it could push the center of the ridge into the four
corners area by the end of next week.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
265
FXUS64 KMAF 232231
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
531 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours under an upper lvl
ridge. Isolated convection will be possible, mainly invof wrn
terminals. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field late
morning Fri, w/bases 4-7 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Thursday...KMAF radar is showing a
few cells over the Davis and Guadalupe Mtns moving north.
Otherwise...hot and muggy weather rules across the CWA.

The persistent ridge over the Southern Plains will shift a little
east the next couple of days as a shortwave moves into the Pacific
Northwest. As the shortwave moves into the Northern Plains then
into the Eastern US the ridge will shift back west...but will
remain the dominant feature for the area. Intense sfc heating
along with a sfc trough and mid level thetae ridge along the mtns
will lead to isolated afternoon and evening convection over the
Davis and Guadalupe Mtns...and the adjacent Plains . With warm
mid level temps the main impacts from the convection will be gusty
winds and locally heavy rain. Elsewhere...it will mainly be dry
with near triple digit high temps through the extended forecast.

Another shortwave will move into the Pacific Northwest early next
week. This shortwave looks stronger...and as it moves into the
Eastern US it could push the center of the ridge into the four
corners area by the end of next week.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
324
FXUS64 KMAF 231929
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
229 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Thursday...KMAF radar is showing a
few cells over the Davis and Guadalupe Mtns moving north.
Otherwise...hot and muggy weather rules across the CWA.

The persistent ridge over the Southern Plains will shift a little
east the next couple of days as a shortwave moves into the Pacific
Northwest. As the shortwave moves into the Northern Plains then
into the Eastern US the ridge will shift back west...but will
remain the dominant feature for the area. Intense sfc heating
along with a sfc trough and mid level thetae ridge along the mtns
will lead to isolated afternoon and evening convection over the
Davis and Guadalupe Mtns...and the adjacent Plains . With warm
mid level temps the main impacts from the convection will be gusty
winds and locally heavy rain. Elsewhere...it will mainly be dry
with near triple digit high temps through the extended forecast.

Another shortwave will move into the Pacific Northwest early next
week. This shortwave looks stronger...and as it moves into the
Eastern US it could push the center of the ridge into the four
corners area by the end of next week.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  73 100  75 102  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    70 101  72 102  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                      74 100  75 104  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               74  99  76 100  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  93  69  95  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                       70  97  72  97  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       62  92  63  93  /  20  30  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        73  99  74 101  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      74  98  76 100  /  10   0  10  10
WINK TX                        77 103  77 103  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/33
166
FXUS64 KMAF 231710
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1210 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at TAF sites through the forecast.
Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon INVOF mtns, possibly
nearing CNM, but since the probability is too low we will not
include a mention at CNM.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
486
FXUS64 KMAF 231051
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
551 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas through the forecast period.  Thunderstorms will develop
this afternoon, but should not affect area terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level high pressure will remain anchored over the southern
Plains through the middle of next week. At the same time a
surface lee trough is forecast to persist from eastern New Mexico
south into the eastern slopes of the mountains. Best chance of
thunderstorms through the middle of next week will be near and
east of the persistent surface trough in the orographically
favored Guadalupe and Davis Mountains in intense afternoon and
early evening heating. These areas are also forecast to reside
underneath a mid level theta e ridge. Further away from the
trough, mountains and theta e ridge, more isolated activity is
expected in the nearby southeast New Mexico Plains and upper Trans
Pecos Region of west Texas. Little to no precipitation is expected
in the Permian Basin, furthest away from the aforementioned
features.

By next Wednesday or Thursday an upper level trough is forecast to
track across the northern states. This trough could send a weak
cold front south into the central and or southern Plains. This
will need to be monitored.

For temperatures will follow persistence through the next week
with the upper ridge prevailing with near triple digit
temperatures expected in many areas of the plains with 80s and 90s
in the mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                 100  75 100  76  /   0  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                   100  69 102  72  /  20  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                     103  75 102  76  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX              100  74 100  76  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              91  69  93  69  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                       96  70  97  72  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       91  63  92  63  /  40  20  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX       100  74 100  76  /   0  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                      99  75  99  76  /  10  10   0  10
WINK TX                       103  77 104  77  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
789
FXUS64 KMAF 230846
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
346 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level high pressure will remain anchored over the southern
Plains through the middle of next week. At the same time a
surface lee trough is forecast to persist from eastern New Mexico
south into the eastern slopes of the mountains. Best chance of
thunderstorms through the middle of next week will be near and
east of the persistent surface trough in the oragraphically
favored Guadalupe and Davis Mountains in intense afternoon and
early evening heating. These areas are also forecast to reside
underneath a mid level theta e ridge. Further away from the
trough, mountains and theta e ridge, more isolated activity
is expected in the nearby southeast New Mexico Plains and upper
Trans Pecos Region of west Texas. Little to no precipitation is
expected in the Permian Basin, furthest away from the aforementioned
features.

By next Wednesday or Thursday an upper level trough is forecast to
track across the northern states. This trough could send a weak
cold front south into the central and or southern Plains. This
will need to be monitored.

For temperatures will follow persistence through the next week
with the upper ridge prevailing with near triple digit
temperatures expected in many areas of the plains with 80s and 90s
in the mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                 100  75 100  76  /   0  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                   100  69 102  72  /  20  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                     103  75 102  76  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX              100  74 100  76  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              91  69  93  69  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                       96  70  97  72  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       91  63  92  63  /  40  20  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX       100  74 100  76  /   0  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                      99  75  99  76  /  10  10   0  10
WINK TX                       103  77 104  77  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
468
FXUS64 KMAF 230504
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1204 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas during the next 24 hours.  Thunderstorms will develop again
this afternoon, but should stay west of all area terminals.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
511
FXUS64 KMAF 230155
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
855 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

.UPDATE...
First period pops.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Had much less storm coverage this afternoon and most of these
have died out.  Updated forecast to lower overnight pops.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...See 00Z Aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...00Z TAF issuance...
Looks like the only concern for the next couple of hours will be
the possibility of TSRA near KPEQ and KFST. For now...will leave
out of the TAF`s since it looks like any convection will die out
before reaching those sites...but will continue to monitor radar
trends. Looks like the convection will decrease rapidly after
sunset. There should be less chance of any TSRA on Thursday across
the TAF sites as the ridge builds west over the Southern Plains.

Strobin

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The upper ridge that has persisted over the region the past few
weeks gave way to scattered showers and thunderstorms yesterday.
Storms developed within a high theta-e axis near a sfc trough and
along remnant outflow boundaries. The ridge has changed little in
strength today, but has begun to move west. Expect the greatest
coverage of storms this afternoon to stay across the western half
of the CWA, roughly west of a Seminole to Odessa to Ft. Stockton
line. As was the case yesterday, heavy rain will be a possibility
with slow storm motions and PWATs near 1.5".

The upper ridge strengthens and drifts back across the area into
this weekend. Thunderstorm chances will become limited to the
higher terrain each day with temperatures climbing back into the
90`s and 100`s.

There is an indication in the long-range models that the upper ridge
may shift into the Four-Corners region late next week. This would
help cool temperatures a few degrees and might even allow a better
chance of storms back in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  75 100  75 100  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    72  99  71 101  /  40  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                      75 101  75 100  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               73 100  74 100  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  88  69  90  /  50  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                       71  96  70  98  /  30  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       64  91  63  92  /  40  40  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        74 100  74 100  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      76  99  75  98  /  20  10  10   0
WINK TX                        76 103  77 103  /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
893
FXUS64 KMAF 222258
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
558 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...See 00Z Aviation discussion below.


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF issuance...
Looks like the only concern for the next couple of hours will be
the possibility of TSRA near KPEQ and KFST. For now...will leave
out of the TAF`s since it looks like any convection will die out
before reaching those sites...but will continue to monitor radar
trends. Looks like the convection will decrease rapidly after
sunset. There should be less chance of any TSRA on Thursday across
the TAF sites as the ridge builds west over the Southern Plains.

Strobin
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The upper ridge that has persisted over the region the past few
weeks gave way to scattered showers and thunderstorms yesterday.
Storms developed within a high theta-e axis near a sfc trough and
along remnant outflow boundaries. The ridge has changed little in
strength today, but has begun to move west. Expect the greatest
coverage of storms this afternoon to stay across the western half
of the CWA, roughly west of a Seminole to Odessa to Ft. Stockton
line. As was the case yesterday, heavy rain will be a possibility
with slow storm motions and PWATs near 1.5".

The upper ridge strengthens and drifts back across the area into
this weekend. Thunderstorm chances will become limited to the
higher terrain each day with temperatures climbing back into the
90`s and 100`s.

There is an indication in the long-range models that the upper ridge
may shift into the Four-Corners region late next week. This would
help cool temperatures a few degrees and might even allow a better
chance of storms back in the forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

33
617
FXUS64 KMAF 221653
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1153 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas through 18Z Thursday. Winds will be generally
southerly at less than 12 knots. By mid-afternoon, isolated
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop mostly over the
mountains and into the nearby plains mostly west of a MAF to FST
line. Chance of thunderstorms will be greatest in southeast New
Mexico, particularly around CNM. Even so, chance of thunderstorms
will remain too low for TEMPO through 03Z. Any thunderstorms that
do develop could cause localized MVFR conditions in reduced
visibility as well as erratic gusty winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide today.  Thunderstorms will form
this afternoon, but will not carry TSRA at any terminals at this
time due to low probabilities of any being affected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/

Upper level high pressure will remain anchored over the southern Plains
through the next week. At the surface a lee trough will be persistent
from eastern New Mexico south into the eastern slopes of the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains. Best chance of thunderstorms will be today through
Friday near and east of the surface trough in intense heating across
the mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains, Trans Pecos and western
Permian Basin where a mid level theta e ridge is forecast to reside.
With precipitable water values progged to approach 1.5 inches,
locally heavy rainfall will be possible in these areas.

For Saturday through the rest of the extended forecast, the mid
level theta e axis is forecast to push a little further west and
be confined mainly to the mountains and the plains immediately
adjacent to them. This should confine thunderstorm activity further
west to mainly the mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains and
portions of the upper Trans Pecos with areal coverage on the
decrease.

For temperatures will follow persistence with the upper ridge
prevailing.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05
676
FXUS64 KMAF 221052
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
552 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide today.  Thunderstorms will form
this afternoon, but will not carry TSRA at any terminals at this
time due to low probabilities of any being affected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/

Upper level high pressure will remain anchored over the southern Plains
through the next week. At the surface a lee trough will be persistent
from eastern New Mexico south into the eastern slopes of the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains. Best chance of thunderstorms will be today through
Friday near and east of the surface trough in intense heating across
the mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains, Trans Pecos and western
Permian Basin where a mid level theta e ridge is forecast to reside.
With precipitable water values progged to approach 1.5 inches,
locally heavy rainfall will be possible in these areas.

For Saturday through the rest of the extended forecast, the mid
level theta e axis is forecast to push a little further west and
be confined mainly to the mountains and the plains immediately
adjacent to them. This should confine thunderstorm activity further
west to mainly the mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains and
portions of the upper Trans Pecos with areal coverage on the
decrease.

For temperatures will follow persistence with the upper ridge
prevailing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  97  75 100  75  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    97  72 100  71  /  30  30  30  20
DRYDEN TX                     100  75 101  75  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               98  73 100  74  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              88  68  89  69  /  30  40  30  20
HOBBS NM                       95  71  95  70  /  30  20  20  20
MARFA TX                       89  64  90  63  /  40  40  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        97  74  99  74  /  20  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                      97  76  99  75  /  30  10  10   0
WINK TX                       100  76 103  77  /  30  30  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
093
FXUS64 KMAF 220934
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
434 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level high pressure will remain anchored over the southern Plains
through the next week. At the surface a lee trough will be persistent
from eastern New Mexico south into the eastern slopes of the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains. Best chance of thunderstorms will be today through
Friday near and east of the surface trough in intense heating across
the mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains, Trans Pecos and western
Permian Basin where a mid level theta e ridge is forecast to reside.
With precipitable water values progged to approach 1.5 inches,
locally heavy rainfall will be possible in these areas.

For Saturday through the rest of the extended forecast, the mid
level theta e axis is forecast to push a little further west and
be confined mainly to the mountains and the plains immediately
adjacent to them. This should confine thunderstorm activity further
west to mainly the mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains and
portions of the upper Trans Pecos with areal coverage on the
decrease.

For temperatures will follow persistence with the upper ridge
prevailing.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  97  75 100  75  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    97  72 100  71  /  30  30  30  20
DRYDEN TX                     100  75 101  75  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               98  73 100  74  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              88  68  89  69  /  30  40  30  20
HOBBS NM                       95  71  95  70  /  30  20  20  20
MARFA TX                       89  64  90  63  /  40  40  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        97  74  99  74  /  20  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                      97  76  99  75  /  30  10  10   0
WINK TX                       100  76 103  77  /  30  30  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
095
FXUS64 KMAF 220516
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1216 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms have diminished across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas, and do not expect much in the way of redevelopment overnight.
VFR conditions will prevail during the next 24 hours, although
thunderstorms will be possible again Wednesday afternoon and
evening.  Will not include any mention at any area terminals as
probabilities are too low.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
583
FXUS64 KMAF 212322
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
622 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is TSRA affecting
terminals this evening. Currently have scattered thunderstorms out
west near CNM and also across central portions of the Permian
Basin. Have continued mention of TSRA at all terminals for at
least a few hours this evening but convection will quickly wane as
we approach sunset. Storms may result in gusty/erratic winds as
well as brief periods of heavy rainfall leading to low vis. Will
continue to monitor radar trends and amend if needed. Beyond this
evening, VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals with
relatively light southerly winds in place. Could see another round
of afternoon/evening storms Wednesday but will leave mention out
for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The upper ridge that has settled over Texas most of July will remain
in place the rest of the week and likely through the end of the
month. For the next couple of days though the ridge will flatten
enough to allow a few disturbances to move across the area.
Convection was fairly widespread yesterday over the western half of
the CWA. Storms developed along a sfc trough within a mid level
theta-e axis (340K+). Think this will be the case this afternoon and
again tomorrow as the theta-e axis shifts slightly east into parts
of the Permian Basin. Storms have already developed in the Davis
Mountains and are beginning to spread north and east. There are
also several boundaries around the area from overnight convection
that storms may form on. Even though temperatures are a few
degrees cooler than yesterday, most locations will still reach
near the 100 degree mark. These hot temperatures will create a dry
subcloud layer which will lead to gusty winds in and near any
thunderstorm. Locally heavy rain will also be possible due to slow
storm movement and PWATs near 1.5". A similar setup is expected
Wednesday before the ridge strengthens again over the area late
this week.

The theta-e ridge moves west back over the higher terrain Thursday
as will the precip chances. By the weekend, the ridge will be strong
enough to suppress most if not all convection. The only lingering
chance of an isolated storm or two will be over the Davis
Mountains. It doesn`t look like we will get a break from the heat
any time soon as models show the upper ridge across the area into
next week. Temperatures should reach near 100 each day unless you
are lucky enough to be in the mountains where highs will stay in
the low to mid 90`s.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27
256
FXUS64 KMAF 211915
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
215 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The upper ridge that has settled over Texas most of July will remain
in place the rest of the week and likely through the end of the
month. For the next couple of days though the ridge will flatten
enough to allow a few disturbances to move across the area.
Convection was fairly widespread yesterday over the western half of
the CWA. Storms developed along a sfc trough within a mid level
theta-e axis (340K+). Think this will be the case this afternoon and
again tomorrow as the theta-e axis shifts slightly east into parts
of the Permian Basin. Storms have already developed in the Davis
Mountains and are beginning to spread north and east. There are
also several boundaries around the area from overnight convection
that storms may form on. Even though temperatures are a few
degrees cooler than yesterday, most locations will still reach
near the 100 degree mark. These hot temperatures will create a dry
subcloud layer which will lead to gusty winds in and near any
thunderstorm. Locally heavy rain will also be possible due to slow
storm movement and PWATs near 1.5". A similar setup is expected
Wednesday before the ridge strengthens again over the area late
this week.

The theta-e ridge moves west back over the higher terrain Thursday
as will the precip chances. By the weekend, the ridge will be strong
enough to suppress most if not all convection. The only lingering
chance of an isolated storm or two will be over the Davis
Mountains. It doesn`t look like we will get a break from the heat
any time soon as models show the upper ridge across the area into
next week. Temperatures should reach near 100 each day unless you
are lucky enough to be in the mountains where highs will stay in
the low to mid 90`s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  76 101  76 102  /  30  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    71  99  72 100  /  40  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                      75 101  76 100  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               73  98  73 100  /  20  20  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  90  69  91  /  40  30  40  30
HOBBS NM                       68  96  70  96  /  40  20  20  20
MARFA TX                       64  90  64  92  /  30  40  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        74 100  74 101  /  40  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      75  99  76 101  /  40  10  10  10
WINK TX                        74 103  76 103  /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/29

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