Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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755
FXUS64 KMAF 210807
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
307 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will persist over the region through the week, and
next weekend, but will vary a little in strength and position.
Convection yesterday, and it`s persistence through much of the night
currently, thrived along a surface trough, mid level theta e axis
and a plume of mid and upper level moisture on the western periphery
of the ua ridge.  These features will be present again today, but
with a plethora of boundaries from convection over the area, and
from convection over the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico.
Although temperatures will be a hair less warm today, think we
could see another round of thunderstorms today/tonight as the ua
ridge will be slightly weaker and we`ll have the additional low
level foci.  The lack of shear will preclude severe storms,
however locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds around 50 mph will
be possible with the stronger storms due to a fairly dry subcloud
layer.  Think similar thunderstorms will persist into the Permian
Basin through Wednesday as the ua ridge remains in a somewhat
weakened state, and the theta e axis, and mid to upper level
moisture linger over the region.

On Thursday, the ua ridge center will begin to migrate further west
and stay more over the region into the weekend.  This will likely
relegate any thunderstorms to the higher terrain, and perhaps not
there either, while high temperatures creep over the century mark
in most locations outside the mountains.  There are some signs
the ua ridge will begin to migrate northward this weekend, but
model differences abound, so will not get too cute at this
juncture.  A steady diet of heat, and low to no PoPs will be the
rule these periods.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                 102  79 103  77  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                    99  73  99  73  /  40  30  30  20
DRYDEN TX                     103  76 101  77  /  10   0  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX              101  73 100  74  /  30  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX              93  70  91  69  /  40  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                       95  71  95  71  /  40  30  20  20
MARFA TX                       90  64  90  65  /  40  20  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX       100  76 100  75  /  20  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                     101  78 100  76  /  20  20  20  20
WINK TX                       102  77 103  76  /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/67

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