Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 030524

1224 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015

06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Moderate SE winds overnight then
gusty Sunday afternoon. Expecting some isolated thunderstorms late
afternoon but confidence in specific location/timing is low attm to
mention in current TAF.




WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved east over the past
24 hours in response to an upper trough approaching the west coast.
This has transitioned meridional flow aloft to zonal, providing a
mostly sunny afternoon very similar to yesterday`s, w/temps
plateauing near normal.  Visible sat/radar shows convection trying
to develop in the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Moisture return was efficient overnight, and is expected to continue
priming the PBL over the next 24 hours.  Sunday, the ridge will be
east of the region, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
under SW flow aloft.  A weak dryline is still anticipated to develop
mid-CWA, w/models in good agreement in bringing a shortwave across
it during the afternoon for a chance of convection into the evening

Late Sunday night/Monday morning, the upper trough makes landfall on
the west coast, w/strong height falls preceding it and large-scale
ascent initiating convection across the CWA during the afternoon.
By this time, 50+F dewpoints are forecast to be backed up against
the western mtns, w/a 50+kt LLJ forecast to develop into the evening
hours across the Stockton Plateau/Permian Basin.  Latest QPF fields
have shifted slightly north over the past 24 hours, but forecast
PWATs at KMAF at 06Z Tue are still as high as over 1.4", which is
near the climatological maximum.  Thus, we`ll continue a mention of
locally heavy rainfall in the grids (only a little further north)
and mention flash flooding in the HWO...mainly Monday night.  This
period is still too far out for a flash flood watch, but one will
probably be needed w/in the next 24 hours.  Monday night, w/the LLJ
kicking in, an area of strong 0-3km 150+ m2/s2 helicity is forecast
to develop, generally down in the Big Bend Area, and develop up thru
the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling Plains overnight.  Forecast
soundings remain very saturated, w/LCL`s 1500-3500` AGL.  0-1km SRH
looks impressive as excess of 100 m2/s2.  Thus, we`ll
mention an isolated tornado in the HWO.  0-6km bulk shear values of
35-60kts are forecast over the southern 2/3rds of the FA, w/wet-bulb
zeroes in the 9-10kft range, so we`ll go ahead and insert a mention
of svr in the grids as well.

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be back to
near-normal by Wednesday, and remain fairly persistent each day into
the weekend under SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each
afternoon, for a chance of convection each day ern zones.






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