Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 062355

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
655 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015

00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period. TSRA will
be possible at KCNM and KPEQ sometime overnight, but have not
included in TAFS yet due to uncertain timing. More widespread
showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area Wednesday
afternoon near the end of the current TAF period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015/

We are looking at a very active weather period the next several
days for SE NM and W TX as a slow-moving upper low (currently
located over AZ) approaches the region from the west, significantly
increasing rain chances as well as the potential for
flooding/flash flooding... A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for
most locations through Thursday evening.

Currently have a few thunderstorms out west this afternoon as a
disturbance moves over the area in moist/SW flow aloft. Some storms
could be severe, producing large hail and damaging winds. In
addition, storms will likely be heavy rain producers and some
localized areas of flash flooding will be possible, particularly
across areas that received 1-2" of rain a few days ago. The upper
low is forecast to reach the AZ/NM state border tomorrow afternoon,
increasing upper forcing for ascent across the area. In addition, a
surface low just SW of the FA will promote strong SE/upslope flow to
contribute to thunderstorm development. As a result, thunderstorm
chances shift farther east with best chances generally along and
west of a Lamesa to Ft. Stockton to Big Bend line. Once again,
severe storms will be possible during this time but the main concern
will continue to be the heavy rain potential, likely resulting in
flooding/flash flooding across may locations (especially across
urban areas and where soils are already saturated).

Wednesday night, the upper low looks to briefly stall near the
AZ/NM/Mexico border then slowly sink south into northern Mexico
Thursday. At this time, the heaviest rains look to occur Wednesday
night into Thursday morning, particularly over SE NM and south into
the Davis Mountains where upwards of 1-3" of rainfall will be
possible. The axis of heaviest rain looks to shift east into the
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos Thursday into Thursday night. As
a result, have decided to expand the Flash Flood Watch east to
include the Permian Basin/Lower Trans Pecos regions and to extend
the watch through Thursday evening. Potential impacts may
include; flooded urban roadways and rural low water crossings,
flooding of low flowing arroyos/creeks and potentially rivers,
including those in SE NM. Reduced visibility in short distances
may impact airports and auto travel.

Could see rain/flooding continue into Friday/Friday night with the
upper low lingering near and a cold front sags south into the
region. Beyond Friday, the upper low begins to retrograde west and
rain chances will finally come to an end. Dry weather expected
through the beginning of next work week with the return of upper
ridging. Near or slightly above normal temperatures today and
tomorrow then below normal highs expected through Saturday due to
rain/cloud cover. Temperatures then rebound above normal next week.


NM...Flash Flood Watch from midnight MDT tonight through Thursday
     afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...
     Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea

TX...Flash Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Wednesday through
     Thursday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big
     Bend Area...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
     Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Pecos...Presidio
     Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...



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