Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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353
FXUS64 KMAF 190536
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1236 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Persistence and latest models suggest stratus will redevelop
around sunrise, resulting in a few hours IFR at KMAF. Otherwise,
all terminals should remain VFR next 24 hours. Forecast soundings
develop a widespread cu field by late morning, w/bases 2.4-4 kft
agl.  Most convection looks to remain east of the terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 611 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Low clouds with MVR ceilings at KMAF and IFR ceilings at KHOB are
expected toward 12z Friday and will continue through late Friday
morning. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected at the terminals
the next 24 hours. Confidence was not high enough to mention any
precipitation with obstructions at any of the terminals. Will
continue to monitor however. Winds will generally be south to
southeast at 5 to 15 mph with some occasional higher gusts.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Plentiful moisture will continue to stream over the southeastern
half of the forecast area the next couple of days, in between an
upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS and an expanding upper
trough over the northern/central U.S. Plains.  A sheared Mesoscale
Convective Vortex (MCV) over the Lower Trans Pecos will aid shower
and thunderstorm development this afternoon before this feature
translates northeastward out of the region tonight around the
western fringe of the ua ridge.  Precipitable water (PWat) will be 2-
2.5 inches above normal over the southeastern half or so of the
forecast area, so heavy rainfall/ localized flash flooding could
occur with the stronger storms this afternoon and tonight.  Another
MCV over Chihuahua/Durango could translate northeastward over the
area Friday, so will keep a chance of rain these areas, with
isolated elsewhere.  Westerly flow aloft will increase somewhat
tonight/Friday as the above mentioned ua trough deepens somewhat.
This will allow temperatures to warm a bit closer to normal, except
over the southeastern third of the forecast area where rain/ cloud
cover should be more pronounced.

A cold front is progged to move south into the area Saturday in the
wake of the eastbound central Plains ua trough.  Since plenty of
moisture will still be over the region, will continue with chance
PoPs most areas Saturday and Saturday night, especially since one or
two weak mid level perturbations are indicated to meander over the
region.  The degree of cooling behind the front is still up in the
air, so locations along and west of the Pecos River could still be
pretty warm Saturday afternoon.  The surface ridge should build in
sufficiently Sunday to drop all locations below normal.  Chance PoPs
will continue areawide on Sunday as good moisture and weak upper
troughiness remains over the region.  Another ua trough will head
for the area Monday via the southwest ConUS, and keep rain chances
going through mid next week along with below normal temperatures.
Model solutions diverge thereafter, so we could see rain chances
continue, or a warmup under a strengthening ua ridge.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  71  89  68 /  30  20  50  40
Carlsbad                       94  69  90  65 /  10  10  40  30
Dryden                         89  72  92  71 /  40  20  40  50
Fort Stockton                  89  69  92  66 /  20  10  40  50
Guadalupe Pass                 89  65  84  61 /  10  10  30  40
Hobbs                          90  65  86  62 /  10  20  40  40
Marfa                          84  58  86  56 /  30  20  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           92  70  89  67 /  20  10  40  40
Odessa                         91  70  89  67 /  20  10  40  40
Wink                           95  72  92  68 /  10  10  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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