Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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742
FXUS64 KMAF 031922
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
222 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to be the dominant feature over the
forecast area through the weekend which will result in high
temperatures remaining above normal.  However, a plume of mid and
upper level moisture will continue to impinge upon the higher
terrain, and allow for a slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, and again Friday.  Surface dewpoints are only
marginally sufficient for convective development, but there will be
a modest uptick from the previous couple of days.  The mentioned
plume of moisture will spread northward over the weekend, while
the ua ridge will build a little further westward.  Will still
carry a low chance of thunderstorms over the higher terrain both
days though as surface dewpoints will continue to rise.  Any
storms that develop through the weekend will be capable of gusty
winds, due to a dry subcloud layer, and at least brief heavy
rainfall.

Not much will change Monday and Tuesday, but an upper trough
currently over the northwestern ConUS will eject northeastward late
this weekend, with another shortwave trough translating eastward
over the northern U.S. Plains through mid next week.  This should
weaken the upper ridge over the region, and possibly result in a
better chance of rain as a cold front is progged to drop south into
west Texas.  Will carry at least a low order chance of thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday.  Temperatures will end up near normal if the
front makes it into the area, or be several degrees below normal if
convection aids a better push of cooler air southward.  Will likely
stay on the warm side of guidance until it becomes more clear on how
far south the front moves.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  68  90  72  93  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                    68  97  69  95  /  20  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                      73  95  75  96  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               69  95  70  96  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  89  67  87  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                       64  90  65  90  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       54  88  57  89  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        69  93  71  94  /  10  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                      71  92  71  94  /  10  10   0  10
WINK TX                        71  97  72  96  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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