Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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021
FXUS64 KMAF 271641
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1141 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours under clear skies. Winds this
afternoon will be west at 10 to 20 mph and gusty. Winds overnight
will generally become southwest at 5 to 10 mph.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Latest sfc analysis
shows the dryline passing east thru KMAF and, according to the
models, will remain east of all terminals for the duration of the
forecast. Dry westerly flow can be expected today, w/convective
temps too high for cu development.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is beginning to pass over the central conus.
The dryline is across the Western Low Rolling Plains and far eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos with the thunderstorms east of
the CWA. The dryline will push east of the area by this afternoon
with west to southwest winds behind it.  Temperatures are expected
to be a little bit cooler today as height falls occur over the area.
Decided to stay on the warm side of guidance since guidance has been
too cool lately.

An active weather pattern is in store from Saturday through the end
of the forecast.  Various shortwaves and upper troughs will impact
the region keeping a chance of rain and thunderstorms in the
forecast.  The models are not in good agreement on the placement of
the rain through most of the forecast but it seems the best chances
will be across the northern and eastern sections of the CWA.
Temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal through the
weekend but will cool to below normal next week.  A cold front will
move through the area on Wednesday cooling temperatures into the
upper 70s to lower 80s for much of the area heading into late next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  60  94  68 /  10   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       90  55  94  61 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         96  64  91  72 /  10  10  30  30
Fort Stockton                  94  60  94  68 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 82  56  87  60 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          87  53  92  65 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                          83  42  88  53 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           94  60  95  68 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                         93  60  95  68 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           93  57  97  68 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80

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