Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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617
FXUS64 KMAF 221653
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1153 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas through 18Z Thursday. Winds will be generally
southerly at less than 12 knots. By mid-afternoon, isolated
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop mostly over the
mountains and into the nearby plains mostly west of a MAF to FST
line. Chance of thunderstorms will be greatest in southeast New
Mexico, particularly around CNM. Even so, chance of thunderstorms
will remain too low for TEMPO through 03Z. Any thunderstorms that
do develop could cause localized MVFR conditions in reduced
visibility as well as erratic gusty winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide today.  Thunderstorms will form
this afternoon, but will not carry TSRA at any terminals at this
time due to low probabilities of any being affected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/

Upper level high pressure will remain anchored over the southern Plains
through the next week. At the surface a lee trough will be persistent
from eastern New Mexico south into the eastern slopes of the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains. Best chance of thunderstorms will be today through
Friday near and east of the surface trough in intense heating across
the mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains, Trans Pecos and western
Permian Basin where a mid level theta e ridge is forecast to reside.
With precipitable water values progged to approach 1.5 inches,
locally heavy rainfall will be possible in these areas.

For Saturday through the rest of the extended forecast, the mid
level theta e axis is forecast to push a little further west and
be confined mainly to the mountains and the plains immediately
adjacent to them. This should confine thunderstorm activity further
west to mainly the mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains and
portions of the upper Trans Pecos with areal coverage on the
decrease.

For temperatures will follow persistence with the upper ridge
prevailing.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05

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