Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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552
FXUS64 KMAF 161919
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
218 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A broad upper level trough is over the eastern 2/3 of the country
with the CWA on the backside of this trough under northwest flow
aloft.  Various shortwaves are and will move over the area in this
northwest flow.  Currently, there are showers and thunderstorms
developing and moving across the Davis Mountains and surrounding
area, and a surface trough is present across southwest Texas and
eastern New Mexico.  Gusty winds and brief heavy rain will be the
main threats with these storms although an isolated severe storm is
possible across the northern Permian Basin where CAPE and bulk shear
values are higher.  Temperatures this afternoon are only expected to
be slightly warmer than those yesterday afternoon.

On Thursday, a shortwave rounding the base of the upper trough is
expected to move over Oklahoma and send a cold front southward into
the CWA during the afternoon.  This will enhance lift over the
region so scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on
Thursday.  Severe storms will be possible across the northern and
eastern CWA where CAPE values will be over 1000 J/Kg and 0 to 6 km
bulk shear values will be 35 to 45 kts per the NAM12.  The lacking
factor will be the mid-level lapse rates which will struggle to
reach 7 degrees C/km.  High temperatures tomorrow will be tricky to
pinpoint due to the timing of the front and amount of cloud cover
and precipitation.

The upper trough will begin to move eastward on Friday and the cold
front will finish pushing through the area Friday morning.
Development of showers and thunderstorms will mainly occur along the
front as it moves south, so most convection should be confined to
the higher terrain and along the Rio Grande by Friday evening.  Some
strong storms with gusty winds will be possible in this area with
CAPE values remaining high along the front.  Temperatures will be
about 10 degrees below normal on Friday with the surface ridge in
close proximity to the area.

An upper ridge will build over the region beginning on Saturday so
thunderstorm chances will mainly be confined to the higher terrain
of West Texas and southeast New Mexico.  Temperatures will begin to
warm up across the area as a result of the ridge.  Many places will
see triple digits temperatures beginning on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71  90  66  86  /  30  40  40  30
BIG SPRING TX              73  90  67  86  /  40  50  50  30
CARLSBAD NM                71  93  66  90  /  40  30  30  20
DRYDEN TX                  78  99  77  96  /  30  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           74  96  70  90  /  30  30  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          68  89  62  85  /  40  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                   68  91  63  88  /  40  40  40  20
MARFA TX                   64  90  63  87  /  40  30  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  92  67  86  /  30  40  40  20
ODESSA TX                  72  92  67  86  /  30  40  40  20
WINK TX                    74  95  69  91  /  40  40  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/80

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