Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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502
FXUS64 KMAF 230537
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1237 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Broken to overcast MVFR ceilings are expected to impact all area
TAF sites within the first few hours of the forecast period,
with improvement to VFR not expected until mid- to late morning.
KCNM could see some brief IFR ceilings around daybreak, thus
have included a TEMPO and will continue to monitor. Southeast
winds will continue through the next 24 hours, expected to become
gusty again by 14-15Z, with gusts diminishing somewhat after
sunset Tuesday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor depicts a broad area of dry and presumably a warm air
aloft with the NE mid level flow. 12Z MAF sounding confirms with a
warm layer from 8h-65h (14C AT 7h) along with a deep dry layer
7h-3h. Satellite also shows a shrtwv trof s of the Big Bend tracking
sw. By 00Z/Tue leading edge of the higher theta-e air will move
into/near far reaches of Lower Trans Pecos supporting slight chance
PoPs. By Tue PM the mid level trof axis will have moved into the
Big Bend region along with a co-located prominent mid level theta-e
ridge axis. As such there will be an increased chance of rain
across the Trans Pecos, especially from the Davis Mtns into the
Big Bend. PoPs will continue to be nudged up there for Tue PM.
Ensemble PW continue to show 1-2 standard deviations above normal
and local heavy rain will be possible. Upper trof remains progressive
into Wed PM and PoPs will increase farther nw, including the GDP
Mtns. Mid level flow will transition from the ne today to s by Wed
PM resulting in cooler mid levels, supporting a continuation of
below normal high temps. Thur-Fri, Sat at least in the w, will be
characterized by a warming/drying period as subtropical ridge
builds/amplifies w of the 4-Corners region by Sat. High temps will
return back closer to normal or slightly above Fri/Sat with mainly
slight chance PoPs. With the subtropical ridge s of far to the nw
Sat NW flow aloft will develop and persist into early next week.
This will increase the potential for evening/overnight tstms and
boundaries/cooler high temps.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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