Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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348
FXUS64 KMAF 211954
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
254 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CDT Monday...KMAF radar is showing
convection popping in the usual spots such as the Davis Mtns...Big
Bend...and the Guadalupe Mtns. Temps have already warmed into the
90s with even a few 100+ readings.

A large upper ridge is located over Northern New Mexico. A lee
trough will remain over extreme West Texas/Eastern New Mexico.
This will serve as the focus for convection this aftn/evening as
well as Tuesday aftn/evening with the deep layer easterly flow
providing upslope conditions. The convection will be mainly
across the usual mountain locales...possibly moving into the New
Mexico Plains. Temps will be above normal...and with the abundant
low level moisture morning lows will stay near 80 along the Rio
Grande. Therefore...have kept the Heat Advisory going thru Wed
morning along the Rio Grande River Valley.

The ridge will strengthen by mid week with very hot temperatures
and dry conditions as mid level moisture becomes limited. There
will be widespread 100+ temps across the CWA...with 105+ along the
Rio Grande and the Trans Pecos regions. There could be enough low
level moisture with the easterly flow to keep overnight lows above
75 along the Rio Grande and Trans Pecos. The heat advisory might
need to be extended through the end of the week and even into the
weekend along the Rio Grande and possibly include the Trans Pecos.

The 12Z GFS is hinting at some relief from the very hot temperatures
...but not til early next week. Be careful with any outdoor
activities for the next seven days and drink plenty of water.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 75  99  74  98  /  10  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              78  99  78  99  /   0  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                77 102  73 100  /  20  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  80 103  81 102  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           77 100  76  99  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  95  71  92  /  30  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   72  97  71  96  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   66  92  65  90  /  30  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    76  99  74  99  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  78  98  78  98  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                    79 103  77 101  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

05/33

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