Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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060
FXUS64 KMAF 280522
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Currently have E/SE winds area wide
tonight however a front, now moving south through LBB, may reach
HOB around 28/12Z (given the front maintains its current speed),
briefly shifting winds to the NE. SE winds are expected to
increase throughout the morning as the front stalls just north of
the terminals. Therefore will maintain strong SE winds through
Monday afternoon at all sites. Could see some convection develop
along/near the front Monday evening, possibly affecting HOB, CNM and
MAF but will hold off on any mention of this in the TAF for now.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014/

Not many changes to the current forecast. WV imagery shows an
elongated upper ridge centered just north of West Texas/SE NM,
allowing for another day of widespread triple-digit temps across
the area. At the sfc, a weak front/boundary lies across the S.
Plains, w/return flow to the south. A dense cu field has developed
over the mtns, and upslope flow this afternoon/evening will focus
isolated chances of convection there.

Monday, thicknesses begin decreasing, and should drop temps area-
wide by about a category Monday and Tuesday afternoons.
Aforementioned front may make it into SE NM and the Western Low
Rolling Plains, and be the focus of isolated convection along a
zone of low lvl convergence as depicted by the 12Z NAM. Wednesday,
strong return flow resumes as a leeside sfc trough drifts south
into the area. Models show a spike in thicknesses across the area,
and afternoon temps may reach the century mark one more time for
this forecast.

Late Wednesday night/Thursday morning, models bring a stronger
cold front thru the region. Front may hang up during the day a
little, but models take it to the Rio Grande by 12Z Friday. Along
w/isolated-slight chances of rain w/the front, temps Thu afternoon
should top out right around normal, and below-normal Friday,
w/models forecasting H85 temps ranging near 20C NE to under 30C
SW. Long-range models are similar on temps, but much will also
depend on extent of cloud cover/rain. Temps begin coming back up
Saturday, but models hint at another front Saturday night, for
below-normal temps again Sunday.

During this time, models really moisten the column up, w/PWATs
increasing to 1.5-2" by Saturday. The GFS raises PWATs at KMAF to
around 1.9" Saturday...about 3 std devs above normal.  Thus, the
potential for heavy rainfall will be there over the weekend as
models bring disturbances thru the east side of the ridge. For
now, we`ll continue a low-POP shotgun approach, as this is too far
out to accurately hone in on triggers.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

27
266
FXUS64 KMAF 272302
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms should decrease in coverage around sunset, or shortly
thereafter.  VFR conditions will prevail throughout the next 24
hours at all southeast New Mexico and West Texas.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014/

Not many changes to the current forecast. WV imagery shows an
elongated upper ridge centered just north of West Texas/SE NM,
allowing for another day of widespread triple-digit temps across
the area. At the sfc, a weak front/boundary lies across the S.
Plains, w/return flow to the south. A dense cu field has developed
over the mtns, and upslope flow this afternoon/evening will focus
isolated chances of convection there.

Monday, thicknesses begin decreasing, and should drop temps area-
wide by about a category Monday and Tuesday afternoons.
Aforementioned front may make it into SE NM and the Western Low
Rolling Plains, and be the focus of isolated convection along a
zone of low lvl convergence as depicted by the 12Z NAM. Wednesday,
strong return flow resumes as a leeside sfc trough drifts south
into the area. Models show a spike in thicknesses across the area,
and afternoon temps may reach the century mark one more time for
this forecast.

Late Wednesday night/Thursday morning, models bring a stronger
cold front thru the region. Front may hang up during the day a
little, but models take it to the Rio Grande by 12Z Friday. Along
w/isolated-slight chances of rain w/the front, temps Thu afternoon
should top out right around normal, and below-normal Friday,
w/models forecasting H85 temps ranging near 20C NE to under 30C
SW. Long-range models are similar on temps, but much will also
depend on extent of cloud cover/rain. Temps begin coming back up
Saturday, but models hint at another front Saturday night, for
below-normal temps again Sunday.

During this time, models really moisten the column up, w/PWATs
increasing to 1.5-2" by Saturday. The GFS raises PWATs at KMAF to
around 1.9" Saturday...about 3 std devs above normal.  Thus, the
potential for heavy rainfall will be there over the weekend as
models bring disturbances thru the east side of the ridge. For
now, we`ll continue a low-POP shotgun approach, as this is too far
out to accurately hone in on triggers.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

99
488
FXUS64 KMAF 272002
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
302 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows an
elongated upper ridge centered just north of West Texas/SE NM,
allowing for another day of widespread triple-digit temps across
the area. At the sfc, a weak front/boundary lies across the S.
Plains, w/return flow to the south. A dense cu field has developed
omtns, and upslope flow this afternoon/evening will focus isolated
chances of convection there.

Monday, thicknesses begin decreasing, and should drop temps area-
wide by about a category Monday and Tuesday afternoons.
Aforementioned front may make it into SE NM and the Western Low
Rolling Plains, and be the focus of isolated convection along a
zone of low lvl convergence as depicted by the 12Z NAM. Wednesday,
strong return flow resumes as a leeside sfc trough drifts south
into the area. Models show a spike in thicknesses across the area,
and afternoon temps may reach the century mark one more time for
this forecast.

Late Wednesday night/Thursday morning, models bring a stronger
cold front thru the region. Front may hang up during the day a
little, but models take it to the Rio Grande by 12Z Friday. Along
w/isolated-slight chances of rain w/the front, temps Thu afternoon
should top out right around normal, and below-normal Friday,
w/models forecasting H85 temps ranging near 20C NE to under 30C
SW. Long-range models are similar on temps, but much will also
depend on extent of cloud cover/rain. Temps begin coming back up
Saturday, but models hint at another front Saturday night, for
below-normal temps again Sunday.

During this time, models really moisten the column up, w/PWATs
increasing to 1.5-2" by Saturday. The GFS raises PWATs at KMAF to
around 1.9" Saturday...about 3 std devs above normal.  Thus, the
potential for heavy rainfall will be there over the weekend as
models bring disturbances thru the east side of the ridge. For
now, we`ll continue a low-POP shotgun approach, as this is too far
out to accurately hone in on triggers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  96  71  96  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  94  71  95  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                73  97  75  97  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  74  97  74  97  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           74  97  71  97  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  91  69  88  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   72  95  69  93  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   63  89  59  88  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  98  73  96  /   0  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  73  97  73  96  /   0  10  10  10
WINK TX                    74 100  74 100  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

12/44
358
FXUS64 KMAF 271708
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1208 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under mostly clear
skies. Winds will generally be east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph
with some gusts this afternoon and early this evening.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Southeast winds will become somewhat
gusty this afternoon, at all but CNM and maybe even HOB, then
diminish after sunset.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge responsible for the hot wx and remains the dominate wx
feature.  This ridge was centered from the 4 corners region eastward
across the Red River to LA.  The ridge will shift westward over the
next couple of days with the axis extending up across the Rockies as
an upper trough deepens over the Eastern U.S.   As the center of
this ridge moves westward... NW flow aloft will allow disturbances
to move into the region late in the week helping rain chances.

Unseasonably hot temps will continue across the region today...
especially over the Pecos and Rio Grande valleys.  850mb temps
across the Permian Basin will be very warm again today around 28C/82F
and slowly cool next couple of days.  Expect another day of 100
degree temps for most of the area.  Yesterday Dryden hit 105 degrees
and a station in the Big Bend hit 105 too.  Will extend the heat
advisory for Brewster and Terrell counties along the Rio Grande
another day.  The Presidio valley will be close to advisory
conditions but will not include at this time.  Nighttime temps will
continue to be very warm as dewpts in the 50s and 60s along with a
steady nocturnal wind keep temps up.  At midnight it was still 89
degrees in Presidio and 92 at Dryden.

Models have been showing a boundary moving down into the northern
CWA Monday but this may actually be a weak front as it has a
thermal/pressure gradient with it.  This feature lifts northward
Tuesday.  On Thursday it appears another front will move into the
area with models trying to push it all the way to Mexico.  This will
increase rain chances and give a break from the recent hot wx.
Latest MEX long range guidance calling for highs in the 80s now
Thursday and Friday... will stay above that for now.

Even with the ridge did have more afternoon clouds Saturday south of
the Pecos river and should see these again this afternoon.  Had a
few late afternoon storms skirt the Big Bend yesterday and model qpf
shows could have that again today so have expanded the isold pops
from the Davis Mtns south to the Rio Grande and northward to GDP.
On Monday models develop rain along the boundary/front across the
Permian Basin during the afternoon and evening... and to a lesser
extent on Tuesday.  Could be a few storms over the higher elevations
on Wednesday but a better shot of rain begins Thursday and Friday
when the front returns and may have some upper support.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  95  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  75  94  74  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               102  72  99  71  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 104  77 101  75  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          101  74  99  73  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          94  69  92  68  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                  100  71  95  70  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   92  64  90  60  /  20  20  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  74  98  73  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                 102  74  98  73  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                   104  73 102  72  /  10   0  10  10




.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

27/72
904
FXUS64 KMAF 271111
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
611 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Southeast winds will become somewhat
gusty this afternoon, at all but CNM and maybe even HOB, then
diminish after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge responsible for the hot wx and remains the dominate wx
feature.  This ridge was centered from the 4 corners region eastward
across the Red River to LA.  The ridge will shift westward over the
next couple of days with the axis extending up across the Rockies as
an upper trough deepens over the Eastern U.S.   As the center of
this ridge moves westward... NW flow aloft will allow disturbances
to move into the region late in the week helping rain chances.

Unseasonably hot temps will continue across the region today...
especially over the Pecos and Rio Grande valleys.  850mb temps
across the Permian Basin will be very warm again today around 28C/82F
and slowly cool next couple of days.  Expect another day of 100
degree temps for most of the area.  Yesterday Dryden hit 105 degrees
and a station in the Big Bend hit 105 too.  Will extend the heat
advisory for Brewster and Terrell counties along the Rio Grande
another day.  The Presidio valley will be close to advisory
conditions but will not include at this time.  Nighttime temps will
continue to be very warm as dewpts in the 50s and 60s along with a
steady nocturnal wind keep temps up.  At midnight it was still 89
degrees in Presidio and 92 at Dryden.

Models have been showing a boundary moving down into the northern
CWA Monday but this may actually be a weak front as it has a
thermal/pressure gradient with it.  This feature lifts northward
Tuesday.  On Thursday it appears another front will move into the
area with models trying to push it all the way to Mexico.  This will
increase rain chances and give a break from the recent hot wx.
Latest MEX long range guidance calling for highs in the 80s now
Thursday and Friday... will stay above that for now.

Even with the ridge did have more afternoon clouds Saturday south of
the Pecos river and should see these again this afternoon.  Had a
few late afternoon storms skirt the Big Bend yesterday and model qpf
shows could have that again today so have expanded the isold pops
from the Davis Mtns south to the Rio Grande and northward to GDP.
On Monday models develop rain along the boundary/front across the
Permian Basin during the afternoon and evening... and to a lesser
extent on Tuesday.  Could be a few storms over the higher elevations
on Wednesday but a better shot of rain begins Thursday and Friday
when the front returns and may have some upper support.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

27
306
FXUS64 KMAF 270904
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
404 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge responsible for the hot wx and remains the dominate wx
feature.  This ridge was centered from the 4 corners region eastward
across the Red River to LA.  The ridge will shift westward over the
next couple of days with the axis extending up across the Rockies as
an upper trough deepens over the Eastern U.S.   As the center of
this ridge moves westward... NW flow aloft will allow disturbances
to move into the region late in the week helping rain chances.

Unseasonably hot temps will continue across the region today...
especially over the Pecos and Rio Grande valleys.  850mb temps
across the Permian Basin will be very warm again today around 28C/82F
and slowly cool next couple of days.  Expect another day of 100
degree temps for most of the area.  Yesterday Dryden hit 105 degrees
and a station in the Big Bend hit 105 too.  Will extend the heat
advisory for Brewster and Terrell counties along the Rio Grande
another day.  The Presidio valley will be close to advisory
conditions but will not include at this time.  Nighttime temps will
continue to be very warm as dewpts in the 50s and 60s along with a
steady nocturnal wind keep temps up.  At midnight it was still 89
degrees in Presidio and 92 at Dryden.

Models have been showing a boundary moving down into the northern
CWA Monday but this may actually be a weak front as it has a
thermal/pressure gradient with it.  This feature lifts northward
Tuesday.  On Thursday it appears another front will move into the
area with models trying to push it all the way to Mexico.  This will
increase rain chances and give a break from the recent hot wx.
Latest MEX long range guidance calling for highs in the 80s now
Thursday and Friday... will stay above that for now.

Even with the ridge did have more afternoon clouds Saturday south of
the Pecos river and should see these again this afternoon.  Had a
few late afternoon storms skirt the Big Bend yesterday and model qpf
shows could have that again today so have expanded the isold pops
from the Davis Mtns south to the Rio Grande and northward to GDP.
On Monday models develop rain along the boundary/front across the
Permian Basin during the afternoon and evening... and to a lesser
extent on Tuesday.  Could be a few storms over the higher elevations
on Wednesday but a better shot of rain begins Thursday and Friday
when the front returns and may have some upper support.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  95  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  75  94  74  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               102  72  99  71  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 104  77 101  75  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          101  74  99  73  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          94  69  92  68  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                  100  71  95  70  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   92  64  90  60  /  20  20  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  74  98  73  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                 102  74  98  73  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                   104  73 102  72  /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

27/72
180
FXUS64 KMAF 270507
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Currently have southeast winds
generally 10-12kt sustained, although slightly stronger (15kt) at
PEQ and FST where gusts persist as well. These gusts are expected to
diminish over the next few hours then wind speeds pick up once again
Sunday afternoon at all but CNM.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Ely mid level flow continues across the area (12Z MAF sounding)
with subtropical ridge centered INVOF central NM. Only shot for
isold shra/tsra today is in/around the Davis Mtns with water
showing drying/subsidence across the CWFA. As early as Sun PM the
ridge will start build to the nw. 85h temps will still be warm
U20s-N30C and so high temps will still be around 100. NAM12 is
again optimistically developing precip from Davis-GDP Mtns Sun PM.
Grids already have isold PoPs and will make no change to that. 85h
temps do trend down about 1C Mon, but 5h heights of 595 dam
indicate it will still be hot. A surface boundary still looks to
straddle the nrn CWFA Mon PM and may serve as a focus for tstms
for the nrn tier. NAM12 continues with the "wettest" trend among
the models. Dwpnts will be hier in wake of boundary and instability
is better there too. This with daytime may result in tstms INVOF
boundary. Needless to say boundary position will be final determinant.
We still have isold/slght chc PoPs across the far n and will make
little change for now. Tue there is a shrtwv trof in the nw flow
however NAM12 is outlier being farther s across the S Plains. As
such it develops precip farthest s. There is a general consensus
that a nw-se axis of precip that is favored and it catches n-ne
CWFA. Only changes that we will make is to bring isold PoPS just
a little father s. 85h temps will have cooled to N25C across PB,
still U20S C across the sw-w. A broad sfc low will develop SE-E
NM Wed and a low level thermal ridge will build along the sfc trof
axis, thus hotter on Wed. ECMWF continues to be quickest with
fropa Thur. A front and nw mid level flow should be a good combo
for precip, but timing issues are yet resolved. Will trend PoPs up
some and farther s Thur-Fri. The wetter 00Z/12Z GFS make more sense
than drier ECMWF as the nw flow aloft persist, but will be dependent
on theta-e ridge, shrtwv trof/s, etc.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

27
903
FXUS64 KMAF 262235
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
535 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
No aviation problems expected as VFR conditions continue at all
terminals through Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Ely mid level flow continues across the area (12Z MAF sounding)
with subtropical ridge centered INVOF central NM. Only shot for
isold shra/tsra today is in/around the Davis Mtns with water
showing drying/subsidence across the CWFA. As early as Sun PM the
ridge will start build to the nw. 85h temps will still be warm
U20s-N30C and so high temps will still be around 100. NAM12 is
again optimistically developing precip from Davis-GDP Mtns Sun PM.
Grids already have isold PoPs and will make no change to that. 85h
temps do trend down about 1C Mon, but 5h heights of 595 dam
indicate it will still be hot. A surface boundary still looks to
straddle the nrn CWFA Mon PM and may serve as a focus for tstms
for the nrn tier. NAM12 continues with the "wettest" trend among
the models. Dwpnts will be hier in wake of boundary and instability
is better there too. This with daytime may result in tstms INVOF
boundary. Needless to say boundary position will be final determinant.
We still have isold/slght chc PoPs across the far n and will make
little change for now. Tue there is a shrtwv trof in the nw flow
however NAM12 is outlier being farther s across the S Plains. As
such it develops precip farthest s. There is a general consensus
that a nw-se axis of precip that is favored and it catches n-ne
CWFA. Only changes that we will make is to bring isold PoPS just
a little father s. 85h temps will have cooled to N25C across PB,
still U20S C across the sw-w. A broad sfc low will develop SE-E
NM Wed and a low level thermal ridge will build along the sfc trof
axis, thus hotter on Wed. ECMWF continues to be quickest with
fropa Thur. A front and nw mid level flow should be a good combo
for precip, but timing issues are yet resolved. Will trend PoPs up
some and farther s Thur-Fri. The wetter 00Z/12Z GFS make more sense
than drier ECMWF as the nw flow aloft persist, but will be dependent
on theta-e ridge, shrtwv trof/s, etc.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

29
889
FXUS64 KMAF 261925
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
225 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Ely mid level flow continues across the area (12Z MAF sounding)
with subtropical ridge centered INVOF central NM. Only shot for
isold shra/tsra today is in/around the Davis Mtns with water
showing drying/subsidence across the CWFA. As early as Sun PM the
ridge will start build to the nw. 85h temps will still be warm
U20s-N30C and so high temps will still be around 100. NAM12 is
again optimistically developing precip from Davis-GDP Mtns Sun PM.
Grids already have isold PoPs and will make no change to that. 85h
temps do trend down about 1C Mon, but 5h heights of 595 dam
indicate it will still be hot. A surface boundary still looks to
straddle the nrn CWFA Mon PM and may serve as a focus for tstms
for the nrn tier. NAM12 continues with the "wettest" trend among
the models. Dwpnts will be hier in wake of boundary and instability
is better there too. This with daytime may result in tstms INVOF
boundary. Needless to say boundary position will be final determinant.
We still have isold/slght chc PoPs across the far n and will make
little change for now. Tue there is a shrtwv trof in the nw flow
however NAM12 is outlier being farther s across the S Plains. As
such it develops precip farthest s. There is a general consensus
that a nw-se axis of precip that is favored and it catches n-ne
CWFA. Only changes that we will make is to bring isold PoPS just
a little father s. 85h temps will have cooled to N25C across PB,
still U20S C across the sw-w. A broad sfc low will develop SE-E
NM Wed and a low level thermal ridge will build along the sfc trof
axis, thus hotter on Wed. ECMWF continues to be quickest with
fropa Thur. A front and nw mid level flow should be a good combo
for precip, but timing issues are yet resolved. Will trend PoPs up
some and farther s Thur-Fri. The wetter 00Z/12Z GFS make more sense
than drier ECMWF as the nw flow aloft persist, but will be dependent
on theta-e ridge, shrtwv trof/s, etc.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  97  73  93  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              76 101  75  92  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                70 100  74  97  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77 104  77 100  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  98  72  97  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   70  97  70  93  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   62  90  63  87  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  99  73  96  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  76  98  74  96  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    73 100  73  98  /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.

&&

$$
515
FXUS64 KMAF 261550
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1050 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours under an upper ridge
centered north of the region.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over NM... TX... and OK this morning will shift
west as an upper trough digs over the eastern part of the country.
Ridge does not actually move away from the area as 594 heights hang
around next several days but the ridge axis builds northward along the
Rockies into Canada.  Overall expect warm temperatures to continue
next several days with temps decreasing late next week as heights
fall.

Will be another hot day today with subsidence from the ridge and
near unrestricted insolation pushing temps to near 100.  Should see
a slight increase in 850mb temps through the weekend but guidance
actually wants to cool temps a couple degrees Sunday.   The Heat
Advisory in effect for Brewster and Terrell counties looks
marginal... Sanderson should not reach needed criteria however could
see temps near 105 degrees right along the Rio Grande so will leave
in effect for today and tonight.  Expect above normal temperatures to
continue through Monday with near normal readings by Tuesday.
Overnight temps have been slow to fall off this morning as wind
stayed up.  Lows for the past week across the Permian Basin have not
been able to drop below the 70s.

Will have possibility of a few storm over the Davis Mtns this
afternoon and Sunday afternoon.  However models show a weak boundary
sagging into northern CWA Monday staying there Tuesday before
lifting back to the north.  Boundary gets forced back into the area
by Friday.  It appears this boundary will be dependent on convection
to the north to push it into the region.  This boundary may also
become a focus for storm development.  Will keep low pops mainly
north each day.  Increased cloud cover will also help lower temps
toward next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

44
279
FXUS64 KMAF 261052
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
552 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all TAF sites. Southeast winds around 10-12kt
sustained through tonight with some higher gusts at MAF and
FST this afternoon and evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over NM... TX... and OK this morning will shift
west as an upper trough digs over the eastern part of the country.
Ridge does not actually move away from the area as 594 heights hang
around next several days but the ridge axis builds northward along the
Rockies into Canada.  Overall expect warm temperatures to continue
next several days with temps decreasing late next week as heights
fall.

Will be another hot day today with subsidence from the ridge and
near unrestricted insolation pushing temps to near 100.  Should see
a slight increase in 850mb temps through the weekend but guidance
actually wants to cool temps a couple degrees Sunday.   The Heat
Advisory in effect for Brewster and Terrell counties looks
marginal... Sanderson should not reach needed criteria however could
see temps near 105 degrees right along the Rio Grande so will leave
in effect for today and tonight.  Expect above normal temperatures to
continue through Monday with near normal readings by Tuesday.
Overnight temps have been slow to fall off this morning as wind
stayed up.  Lows for the past week across the Permian Basin have not
been able to drop below the 70s.

Will have possibility of a few storm over the Davis Mtns this
afternoon and Sunday afternoon.  However models show a weak boundary
sagging into northern CWA Monday staying there Tuesday before
lifting back to the north.  Boundary gets forced back into the area
by Friday.  It appears this boundary will be dependent on convection
to the north to push it into the region.  This boundary may also
become a focus for storm development.  Will keep low pops mainly
north each day.  Increased cloud cover will also help lower temps
toward next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

27
957
FXUS64 KMAF 260824
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
324 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over NM... TX... and OK this morning will shift
west as an upper trough digs over the eastern part of the country.
Ridge does not actually move away from the area as 594 heights hang
around next several days but the ridge axis builds northward along the
Rockies into Canada.  Overall expect warm temperatures to continue
next several days with temps decreasing late next week as heights
fall.

Will be another hot day today with subsidence from the ridge and
near unrestricted insolation pushing temps to near 100.  Should see
a slight increase in 850mb temps through the weekend but guidance
actually wants to cool temps a couple degrees Sunday.   The Heat
Advisory in effect for Brewster and Terrell counties looks
marginal... Sanderson should not reach needed criteria however could
see temps near 105 degrees right along the Rio Grande so will leave
in effect for today and tonight.  Expect above normal temperatures to
continue through Monday with near normal readings by Tuesday.
Overnight temps have been slow to fall off this morning as wind
stayed up.  Lows for the past week across the Permian Basin have not
been able to drop below the 70s.

Will have possibility of a few storm over the Davis Mtns this
afternoon and Sunday afternoon.  However models show a weak boundary
sagging into northern CWA Monday staying there Tuesday before
lifting back to the north.  Boundary gets forced back into the area
by Friday.  It appears this boundary will be dependent on convection
to the north to push it into the region.  This boundary may also
become a focus for storm development.  Will keep low pops mainly
north each day.  Increased cloud cover will also help lower temps
toward next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  72  99  71  /   0  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  75 100  74  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM               102  71 100  72  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  76 102  75  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          100  73  97  72  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          94  70  92  69  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   99  69  98  69  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   93  62  91  63  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   100  73  99  72  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                 100  73  98  72  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                   102  74  99  73  /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

27/72
086
FXUS64 KMAF 260504
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1204 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Southeast winds around 10-12kt
sustained through Saturday night with some higher gusts at MAF and
FST during the afternoon hours.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The subtropical ridge extends w-e from NM into OK leaving MAF`s CWFA
in ely mid level flow aloft. Water vapor reveals absence of
identifiable shrtwv trof and with lack of a sfc boundary there is
little opportunity for shra/tsra today. Sat-Sun there will be
little sensible wx change, just hot. 85h temps from around 28C
across the PB to 31C across SE NM will continue to support high
temps from the U90s to L100s. Hottest along parts of the Rio
Grande, especially from Big Bend to Terrell Co where high temps
are right at 105 and lows in the mid/upper 70s, thus continuation
of heat advisory there. Amplification of mid level ridge farther
nw and ern U.S. trof signal a pattern transition to NW flow aloft
by Tue/Wed. There`s a good chance that a weak boundary will be
across the nrn CWFA Monday. Mid level theta-e ridge, hier sfc
mstr, and better SB instability will be n of the boundary.
Forecast already has low probability PoPs across the n and this
still looks good based on latest data. Shrtwv trof within NW Wed
along with convection will push a boundary into W TX plains, but
staying n of CWFA until Thur. Based on boundary and NW flow
Thur/Fri would seem to most favored days for precip at this point.
Still too far out to commit to any hier PoPs than are in the
forecast. Higher likelihood is that temps will cool off to below
normal Thur/Fr.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

27
243
FXUS64 KMAF 252332
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
632 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions at all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The subtropical ridge extends w-e from NM into OK leaving MAF`s CWFA
in ely mid level flow aloft. Water vapor reveals absence of
identifiable shrtwv trof and with lack of a sfc boundary there is
little opportunity for shra/tsra today. Sat-Sun there will be
little sensible wx change, just hot. 85h temps from around 28C
across the PB to 31C across SE NM will continue to support high
temps from the U90s to L100s. Hottest along parts of the Rio
Grande, especially from Big Bend to Terrell Co where high temps
are right at 105 and lows in the mid/upper 70s, thus continuation
of heat advisory there. Amplification of mid level ridge farther
nw and ern U.S. trof signal a pattern transition to NW flow aloft
by Tue/Wed. There`s a good chance that a weak boundary will be
across the nrn CWFA Monday. Mid level theta-e ridge, hier sfc
mstr, and better SB instability will be n of the boundary.
Forecast already has low probability PoPs across the n and this
still looks good based on latest data. Shrtwv trof within NW Wed
along with convection will push a boundary into W TX plains, but
staying n of CWFA until Thur. Based on boundary and NW flow
Thur/Fri would seem to most favored days for precip at this point.
Still too far out to commit to any hier PoPs than are in the
forecast. Higher likelihood is that temps will cool off to below
normal Thur/Fr.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

29
277
FXUS64 KMAF 251913
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
213 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The subtropical ridge extends w-e from NM into OK leaving MAF`s CWFA
in ely mid level flow aloft. Water vapor reveals absence of
identifiable shrtwv trof and with lack of a sfc boundary there is
little opportunity for shra/tsra today. Sat-Sun there will be
little sensible wx change, just hot. 85h temps from around 28C
across the PB to 31C across SE NM will continue to support high
temps from the U90s to L100s. Hottest along parts of the Rio
Grande, especially from Big Bend to Terrell Co where high temps
are right at 105 and lows in the mid/upper 70s, thus continuation
of heat advisory there. Amplification of mid level ridge farther
nw and ern U.S. trof signal a pattern transition to NW flow aloft
by Tue/Wed. There`s a good chance that a weak boundary will be
across the nrn CWFA Monday. Mid level theta-e ridge, hier sfc
mstr, and better SB instability will be n of the boundary.
Forecast already has low probability PoPs across the n and this
still looks good based on latest data. Shrtwv trof within NW Wed
along with convection will push a boundary into W TX plains, but
staying n of CWFA until Thur. Based on boundary and NW flow
Thur/Fri would seem to most favored days for precip at this point.
Still too far out to commit to any hier PoPs than are in the
forecast. Higher likelihood is that temps will cool off to below
normal Thur/Fr.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73 100  72 100  /   0   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              77 101  75 100  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                70 101  72 100  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  78 104  77 103  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           74  97  73  97  /   0  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  91  68  92  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   69  98  69  97  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   60  91  61  91  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  99  73  99  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  75  99  73  98  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    74 100  74  99  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.

&&

$$
167
FXUS64 KMAF 251517
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1017 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue next 24 hours, under an upper ridge
centered north of the region. A few cu will be possible SE NM,
w/bases 7-9 kft agl.  Return flow will continue, w/no convection expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Not much change from the previous forecast with hot and dry
conditions expected through the weekend for most areas, as we remain
under the influence of the persistent upper ridge. Above normal
temperatures continue for the next several days as the 850mb ridge
strengthens just west of the CWA. MOS was too cool once again
yesterday so will continue to forecast temps a degree or two warmer
than guidance. In general, afternoon highs will range from the upper
90s to at or just above 100. The exceptions being the higher terrain
where slightly cooler temperatures (upper 80s-low 90s) can be
expected and south along the Rio Grande River Valley, where temps as
high as 105-106 will be possible. With such warm overnight
lows expected along the Rio Grande Valley through the
weekend, went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory for these locations
in Brewster and Terrell counties. Saw a few thunderstorms down south
near the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions yesterday
afternoon/evening but for today, think any activity will remain to
the south of the FA.

The upper ridge will begin to shift back west Sunday/Monday as an
strong upper low digs into the Great Lakes region. As a result,
850mb temps will begin to cool across the region and afternoon highs
will decrease to more normal values through the beginning of next
week. The previously mentioned ua low will send a cold front south,
reaching northeast zones Monday or Tuesday. Model guidance keeps
greatest precip chances to the northeast of the CWA however
convection along the front could push it further south into the
area. For now, will keep inherited mention of thunderstorm chances
across northern zones Monday night and Tuesday. Any lingering
boundaries (whether it be the front or outflow boundaries from
Tuesday convection) could also generate thunderstorms across
northern portions into Wednesday. Another cold front could continue
rain chances and cool temperatures further later in the week but
won`t get too excited just yet.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

44
347
FXUS64 KMAF 251030
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
530 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Not much change from the previous forecast with hot and dry
conditions expected through the weekend for most areas, as we remain
under the influence of the persistent upper ridge. Above normal
temperatures continue for the next several days as the 850mb ridge
strengthens just west of the CWA. MOS was too cool once again
yesterday so will continue to forecast temps a degree or two warmer
than guidance. In general, afternoon highs will range from the upper
90s to at or just above 100. The exceptions being the higher terrain
where slightly cooler temperatures (upper 80s-low 90s) can be
expected and south along the Rio Grande River Valley, where temps as
high as 105-106 will be possible. With such warm overnight
lows expected along the Rio Grande Valley through the
weekend, went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory for these locations
in Brewster and Terrell counties. Saw a few thunderstorms down south
near the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions yesterday
afternoon/evening but for today, think any activity will remain to
the south of the FA.

The upper ridge will begin to shift back west Sunday/Monday as an
strong upper low digs into the Great Lakes region. As a result,
850mb temps will begin to cool across the region and afternoon highs
will decrease to more normal values through the beginning of next
week. The previously mentioned ua low will send a cold front south,
reaching northeast zones Monday or Tuesday. Model guidance keeps
greatest precip chances to the northeast of the CWA however
convection along the front could push it further south into the
area. For now, will keep inherited mention of thunderstorm chances
across northern zones Monday night and Tuesday. Any lingering
boundaries (whether it be the front or outflow boundaries from
Tuesday convection) could also generate thunderstorms across
northern portions into Wednesday. Another cold front could continue
rain chances and cool temperatures further later in the week but
won`t get too excited just yet.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

44
119
FXUS64 KMAF 250843
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
343 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Not much change from the previous forecast with hot and dry
conditions expected through the weekend for most areas, as we remain
under the influence of the persistent upper ridge. Above normal
temperatures continue for the next several days as the 850mb ridge
strengthens just west of the CWA. MOS was too cool once again
yesterday so will continue to forecast temps a degree or two warmer
than guidance. In general, afternoon highs will range from the upper
90s to at or just above 100. The exceptions being the higher terrain
where slightly cooler temperatures (upper 80s-low 90s) can be
expected and south along the Rio Grande River Valley, where temps as
high as 105-106 will be possible. With such warm overnight
lows expected along the Rio Grande Valley through the
weekend, went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory for these locations
in Brewster and Terrell counties. Saw a few thunderstorms down south
near the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions yesterday
afternoon/evening but for today, think any activity will remain to
the south of the FA.

The upper ridge will begin to shift back west Sunday/Monday as an
strong upper low digs into the Great Lakes region. As a result,
850mb temps will begin to cool across the region and afternoon highs
will decrease to more normal values through the beginning of next
week. The previously mentioned ua low will send a cold front south,
reaching northeast zones Monday or Tuesday. Model guidance keeps
greatest precip chances to the northeast of the CWA however
convection along the front could push it further south into the
area. For now, will keep inherited mention of thunderstorm chances
across northern zones Monday night and Tuesday. Any lingering
boundaries (whether it be the front or outflow boundaries from
Tuesday convection) could also generate thunderstorms across
northern portions into Wednesday. Another cold front could continue
rain chances and cool temperatures further later in the week but
won`t get too excited just yet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  72 100  73  /  10   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX             102  74 102  74  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               101  70 102  72  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 103  77 103  78  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           99  73  99  73  /  10   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          90  68  92  69  /   0  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   98  69  98  69  /  10   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   89  59  91  63  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   100  74 100  73  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  99  75  99  74  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                   103  75 103  75  /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

44/27
529
FXUS64 KMAF 250517
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1217 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
No major aviation concerns through the TAF period. VFR conditions
will persist at all area terminals with winds predominantly from the
S/SE around 10 kts.

Huffman

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

13
625
FXUS64 KMAF 242337
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
637 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions to continue at all terminals through Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level disturbance across south Texas will track toward
the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos this evening and bring those
areas a slight chance of thunderstorms this evening.

Beyond this evening the weather will be quiet across west Texas
and southeast New Mexico Friday through Sunday due to a healthy
upper level ridge centered across the southern Rockies and
southern High Plains. Temperatures will continue to be above
normal in this pattern through the weekend. By late Sunday a
developing upper level trough across the Great Lakes and northeast
states will send a cold front south toward the forecast area. At
this time the ECMWF guidance is most bullish pushing the front
into the area with some precipitation. This could be reasonable
given the amount of convection that the consensus guidance is
developing along and behind the front next week. For now did not
yet want to jump all in on the ECMWF scenario but did increase
pops especially across the north Monday through Thursday and did
mention isolated thunderstorms in a few locations in the north in
a few of the periods. Later shifts will obviously need to monitor.

Trended high temperatures next week close to climatological
normals with the possibility of the front moving in.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29
219
FXUS64 KMAF 241945
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
245 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level disturbance across south Texas will track toward
the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos this evening and bring those
areas a slight chance of thunderstorms this evening.

Beyond this evening the weather will be quiet across west Texas
and southeast New Mexico Friday through Sunday due to a healthy
upper level ridge centered across the southern Rockies and
southern High Plains. Temperatures will continue to be above
normal in this pattern through the weekend. By late Sunday a
developing upper level trough across the Great Lakes and northeast
states will send a cold front south toward the forecast area. At
this time the ECMWF guidance is most bullish pushing the front
into the area with some precipitation. This could be reasonable
given the amount of convection that the consensus guidance is
developing along and behind the front next week. For now did not
yet want to jump all in on the ECMWF scenario but did increase
pops especially across the north Monday through Thursday and did
mention isolated thunderstorms in a few locations in the north in
a few of the periods. Later shifts will obviously need to monitor.

Trended high temperatures next week close to climatological
normals with the possibility of the front moving in.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  72 100  71  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             101  73 101  72  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                99  72 101  69  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  78 102  77  /  20  20  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          90  68  91  69  /  10  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   96  69  99  68  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   89  61  90  60  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73 100  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  74  99  74  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   101  74 103  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/12
338
FXUS64 KMAF 241628
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1128 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, under upper-level
ridging over NE NM. Sfc winds will veer from E to S. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field by or shortly after
issuance, w/bases 7-10 kft agl.  No convection expected.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014/

The stubborn upper ridge remains parked over southwest and central
portions of the CONUS, via WV satellite this morning. This ridge
will remain the dominate weather feature during this forecast
package, keeping conditions generally hot and dry for most areas.

Above normal temperatures continue today under the influence of the
upper ridge with highs generally in the upper 90s to near 100 most
places. A shortwave, moving around the eastern edge of the upper
ridge looks to move over southern portions of the region today. This
wave could provide enough upper level forcing for ascent to help
generate at least isolated convection across the Big Bend region for
this afternoon and evening, especially if dewpoints remain in the
50s. The GFS shows this feature lingering across the south into
Friday and possibly Saturday while the NAM keeps greatest forcing
for ascent further south. Will side with the NAM and keep silent
PoPs beyond this evening.

The center of the upper ridge will shift slightly southeastward
tonight and tomorrow, allowing the intensifying 850mb thermal ridge
to inch further east into the FA Friday and Saturday. Based on 850mb
temps of 29-32C by Saturday, think MOS is too cool and went a degree
or two warmer than guidance through Saturday. Expect highs in the
100-103 degree range to start the weekend with many locations along
the Pecos and Rio Grande River Valleys likely reaching 105-106. Will
continue to see a drying trend over the next few days so heat index
values should remain relatively close to the ambient temperatures
and a Heat Advisory will not be necessary. With the upper ridge
centered just north of the region through the weekend, think chances
for rain will be slim to none so will keep the forecast dry through
the beginning of next week.

The upper ridge will get a shove back to the west Sunday/Monday
as an upper low digs through the Great Lakes region, establishing
weak northerly flow aloft. This would allow the 850mb thermal
ridge to move back west and give us a little relief from the heat
beginning Sunday, although highs will still be above normal. Could
also see the return of rain chances by mid week with the
possibility of a front approaching NE zones. For now, will keep
the extended dry.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
070
FXUS64 KMAF 241115
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
615 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours at all
southeast New Mexico and West Texas TAF sites. Any thunderstorms
this afternoon or evening should stay south of all TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014/

The stubborn upper ridge remains parked over southwest and central
portions of the CONUS, via WV satellite this morning. This ridge
will remain the dominate weather feature during this forecast
package, keeping conditions generally hot and dry for most areas.

Above normal temperatures continue today under the influence of the
upper ridge with highs generally in the upper 90s to near 100 most
places. A shortwave, moving around the eastern edge of the upper
ridge looks to move over southern portions of the region today. This
wave could provide enough upper level forcing for ascent to help
generate at least isolated convection across the Big Bend region for
this afternoon and evening, especially if dewpoints remain in the
50s. The GFS shows this feature lingering across the south into
Friday and possibly Saturday while the NAM keeps greatest forcing
for ascent further south. Will side with the NAM and keep silent
PoPs beyond this evening.

The center of the upper ridge will shift slightly southeastward
tonight and tomorrow, allowing the intensifying 850mb thermal ridge
to inch further east into the FA Friday and Saturday. Based on 850mb
temps of 29-32C by Saturday, think MOS is too cool and went a degree
or two warmer than guidance through Saturday. Expect highs in the
100-103 degree range to start the weekend with many locations along
the Pecos and Rio Grande River Valleys likely reaching 105-106. Will
continue to see a drying trend over the next few days so heat index
values should remain relatively close to the ambient temperatures
and a Heat Advisory will not be necessary. With the upper ridge
centered just north of the region through the weekend, think chances
for rain will be slim to none so will keep the forecast dry through
the beginning of next week.

The upper ridge will get a shove back to the west Sunday/Monday
as an upper low digs through the Great Lakes region, establishing
weak northerly flow aloft. This would allow the 850mb thermal
ridge to move back west and give us a little relief from the heat
beginning Sunday, although highs will still be above normal. Could
also see the return of rain chances by mid week with the
possibility of a front approaching NE zones. For now, will keep
the extended dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  72 100  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             101  73 101  73  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                99  72 101  71  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  76 102  75  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          90  68  91  69  /  10  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   96  69  99  69  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   89  61  90  62  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73 100  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  74  99  75  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   101  74 103  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/27
024
FXUS64 KMAF 240859
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
359 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The stubborn upper ridge remains parked over southwest and central
portions of the CONUS, via WV satellite this morning. This ridge
will remain the dominate weather feature during this forecast
package, keeping conditions generally hot and dry for most areas.

Above normal temperatures continue today under the influence of the
upper ridge with highs generally in the upper 90s to near 100 most
places. A shortwave, moving around the eastern edge of the upper
ridge looks to move over southern portions of the region today. This
wave could provide enough upper level forcing for ascent to help
generate at least isolated convection across the Big Bend region for
this afternoon and evening, especially if dewpoints remain in the
50s. The GFS shows this feature lingering across the south into
Friday and possibly Saturday while the NAM keeps greatest forcing
for ascent further south. Will side with the NAM and keep silent
PoPs beyond this evening.

The center of the upper ridge will shift slightly southeastward
tonight and tomorrow, allowing the intensifying 850mb thermal ridge
to inch further east into the FA Friday and Saturday. Based on 850mb
temps of 29-32C by Saturday, think MOS is too cool and went a degree
or two warmer than guidance through Saturday. Expect highs in the
100-103 degree range to start the weekend with many locations along
the Pecos and Rio Grande River Valleys likely reaching 105-106. Will
continue to see a drying trend over the next few days so heat index
values should remain relatively close to the ambient temperatures
and a Heat Advisory will not be necessary. With the upper ridge
centered just north of the region through the weekend, think chances
for rain will be slim to none so will keep the forecast dry through
the beginning of next week.

The upper ridge will get a shove back to the west Sunday/Monday
as an upper low digs through the Great Lakes region, establishing
weak northerly flow aloft. This would allow the 850mb thermal
ridge to move back west and give us a little relief from the heat
beginning Sunday, although highs will still be above normal. Could
also see the return of rain chances by mid week with the
possibility of a front approaching NE zones. For now, will keep
the extended dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  72 100  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             101  73 101  73  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                99  72 101  71  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  76 102  75  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          90  68  91  69  /  10  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   96  69  99  69  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   89  61  90  62  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73 100  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  74  99  75  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   101  74 103  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/27
829
FXUS64 KMAF 240507
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours at all
southeast New Mexico and West Texas TAF sites.  Thunderstorms may
form this afternoon, but should stay south of said TAF sites.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014/

As of 2:15 PM CDT Wednesday...Skies are partly cloudy across the
CWA. A strong ridge is centered over southern Colorado with drier
air filtering into the CWA...as dew pts are lower than yesterday.

The ridge will be the dominant feature in the CWA`s weather for
the remainder of the week...and through the weekend. The ridge
will sag south through the weekend as a series of systems move
across the northern tier of states. This will enable the thermal
ridge to edge further east Friday and Saturday. Temps will be
above normal on Thursday...but it will get even hotter Friday and
Saturday with widespread 100+ temps. Along the Rio Grande River
Valley and the Trans Pecos temps could be 105+. Dew pts will be
lower so overnight lows could drop below 75. However...it is
possible that a heat advisory could be needed for the Rio Grande
River Valley and the Trans Pecos Friday and Saturday.

The ridge will begin to retrograde west Sunday and into early next
week. The thermal ridge will be further west as well...so temps
will not be as hot...but will be near or a few degrees above
normal. The flow will become north or northwest early next
week...with the GFS bringing a front to the CWA early next week
whereas the ECMWF is slower. With the model differences have kept
the forecast dry through the extended.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
253
FXUS64 KMAF 232313
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
546 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will
mostly be out of the east to southeast with some gusts possible
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Wednesday...Skies are partly
cloudy across the CWA. A strong ridge is centered over southern
Colorado with drier air filtering into the CWA...as dew pts are
lower than yesterday.

The ridge will be the dominant feature in the CWA`s weather for
the remainder of the week...and through the weekend. The ridge
will sag south through the weekend as a series of systems move
across the northern tier of states. This will enable the thermal
ridge to edge further east Friday and Saturday. Temps will be
above normal on Thursday...but it will get even hotter Friday and
Saturday with widespread 100+ temps. Along the Rio Grande River
Valley and the Trans Pecos temps could be 105+. Dew pts will be
lower so overnight lows could drop below 75. However...it is
possible that a heat advisory could be needed for the Rio Grande
River Valley and the Trans Pecos Friday and Saturday.

The ridge will begin to retrograde west Sunday and into early next
week. The thermal ridge will be further west as well...so temps
will not be as hot...but will be near or a few degrees above
normal. The flow will become north or northwest early next
week...with the GFS bringing a front to the CWA early next week
whereas the ECMWF is slower. With the model differences have kept
the forecast dry through the extended.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
118
FXUS64 KMAF 231913
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
213 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Wednesday...Skies are partly
cloudy across the CWA. A strong ridge is centered over southern
Colorado with drier air filtering into the CWA...as dew pts are
lower than yesterday.

The ridge will be the dominant feature in the CWA`s weather for
the remainder of the week...and through the weekend. The ridge
will sag south through the weekend as a series of systems move
across the northern tier of states. This will enable the thermal
ridge to edge further east Friday and Saturday. Temps will be
above normal on Thursday...but it will get even hotter Friday and
Saturday with widespread 100+ temps. Along the Rio Grande River
Valley and the Trans Pecos temps could be 105+. Dew pts will be
lower so overnight lows could drop below 75. However...it is
possible that a heat advisory could be needed for the Rio Grande
River Valley and the Trans Pecos Friday and Saturday.

The ridge will begin to retrograde west Sunday and into early next
week. The thermal ridge will be further west as well...so temps
will not be as hot...but will be near or a few degrees above
normal. The flow will become north or northwest early next
week...with the GFS bringing a front to the CWA early next week
whereas the ECMWF is slower. With the model differences have kept
the forecast dry through the extended.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 98  72  98  72  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX             102  75 102  75  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM               101  72  99  72  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  78 103  77  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  73  97  73  /  10   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          89  67  89  68  /  10  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   97  69  96  69  /  10   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   89  62  89  61  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  72  99  74  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  98  73  97  75  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                   100  74 101  74  /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/33
516
FXUS64 KMAF 231714
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under mostly clear
skies. Winds will generally be east to southeast at 5 to 10 mph
through the period, with some gusts this afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across southeast New Mexico and West
Texas today and tonight while mid and high clouds decrease.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014/

A broad upper ridge continues to spin over much of the southwest
CONUS, as seen on WV satellite this morning. This ridge will remain
the dominate weather feature during this forecast package, keeping
conditions generally hot and dry through the weekend.

The hot temperatures continue today under the influence of the upper
ridge with highs just above normal most areas. Have extended the
current Heat Advisory through 15Z just to get through the warm
morning lows but high temperatures do not look to meet advisory
criteria today. Much of the same expected Thursday, if not a degree
or two warmer. The center of the upper ridge will shift slightly
southward Friday and the 850mb thermal ridge looks to intensify just
west of the CWA. By Saturday, afternoon high temperatures will range
from 99-103 most areas with locations along the Pecos and Rio Grande
River Valleys possibly reaching 106, which is well above normal
readings. The airmass will be relatively dry so heat index values
will be close to the ambient temperatures, which will be at or just
above Heat Advisory criteria so one may be needed Friday and
Saturday to highlight river valley areas. With the upper ridge
centered just north of the region through the weekend, generally
ENE flow aloft will hold mid level moisture to the west and a dry
forecast is expected through the beginning of next week.

The upper ridge will retrograde back west Sunday/Monday as an upper
low digs into the Great Lakes region around the longwave trough
over the eastern CONUS. This pattern change would result in north or
northwesterly flow aloft which would likely decrease temperatures
and increase rain chances. For now, will leave downward trending
temperatures but keep extended dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 98  71  99  73  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             102  75 101  74  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               101  71 101  72  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  76 103  75  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  73  98  73  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          89  68  91  68  /  10   0  10   0
HOBBS NM                   97  70  97  70  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   89  62  90  63  /  10   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73  99  74  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  98  74  98  75  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                   100  75 101  74  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/27
661
FXUS64 KMAF 231102
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across southeast New Mexico and West
Texas today and tonight while mid and high clouds decrease.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014/

A broad upper ridge continues to spin over much of the southwest
CONUS, as seen on WV satellite this morning. This ridge will remain
the dominate weather feature during this forecast package, keeping
conditions generally hot and dry through the weekend.

The hot temperatures continue today under the influence of the upper
ridge with highs just above normal most areas. Have extended the
current Heat Advisory through 15Z just to get through the warm
morning lows but high temperatures do not look to meet advisory
criteria today. Much of the same expected Thursday, if not a degree
or two warmer. The center of the upper ridge will shift slightly
southward Friday and the 850mb thermal ridge looks to intensify just
west of the CWA. By Saturday, afternoon high temperatures will range
from 99-103 most areas with locations along the Pecos and Rio Grande
River Valleys possibly reaching 106, which is well above normal
readings. The airmass will be relatively dry so heat index values
will be close to the ambient temperatures, which will be at or just
above Heat Advisory criteria so one may be needed Friday and
Saturday to highlight river valley areas. With the upper ridge
centered just north of the region through the weekend, generally
ENE flow aloft will hold mid level moisture to the west and a dry
forecast is expected through the beginning of next week.

The upper ridge will retrograde back west Sunday/Monday as an upper
low digs into the Great Lakes region around the longwave trough
over the eastern CONUS. This pattern change would result in north or
northwesterly flow aloft which would likely decrease temperatures
and increase rain chances. For now, will leave downward trending
temperatures but keep extended dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 98  71  99  73  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             102  75 101  74  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               101  71 101  72  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  76 103  75  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  73  98  73  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          89  68  91  68  /  10   0  10   0
HOBBS NM                   97  70  97  70  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   89  62  90  63  /  10   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73  99  74  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  98  74  98  75  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                   100  75 101  74  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

67/27
185
FXUS64 KMAF 230847
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
347 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A broad upper ridge continues to spin over much of the southwest
CONUS, as seen on WV satellite this morning. This ridge will remain
the dominate weather feature during this forecast package, keeping
conditions generally hot and dry through the weekend.

The hot temperatures continue today under the influence of the upper
ridge with highs just above normal most areas. Have extended the
current Heat Advisory through 15Z just to get through the warm
morning lows but high temperatures do not look to meet advisory
criteria today. Much of the same expected Thursday, if not a degree
or two warmer. The center of the upper ridge will shift slightly
southward Friday and the 850mb thermal ridge looks to intensify just
west of the CWA. By Saturday, afternoon high temperatures will range
from 99-103 most areas with locations along the Pecos and Rio Grande
River Valleys possibly reaching 106, which is well above normal
readings. The airmass will be relatively dry so heat index values
will be close to the ambient temperatures, which will be at or just
above Heat Advisory criteria so one may be needed Friday and
Saturday to highlight river valley areas. With the upper ridge
centered just north of the region through the weekend, generally
ENE flow aloft will hold mid level moisture to the west and a dry
forecast is expected through the beginning of next week.

The upper ridge will retrograde back west Sunday/Monday as an upper
low digs into the Great Lakes region around the longwave trough
over the eastern CONUS. This pattern change would result in north or
northwesterly flow aloft which would likely decrease temperatures
and increase rain chances. For now, will leave downward trending
temperatures but keep extended dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 98  71  99  73  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             102  75 101  74  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               101  71 101  72  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  76 103  75  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  73  98  73  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          89  68  91  68  /  10   0  10   0
HOBBS NM                   97  70  97  70  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   89  62  90  63  /  10   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73  99  74  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  98  74  98  75  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                   100  75 101  74  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

67/27
036
FXUS64 KMAF 230212 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
912 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Have sent an update to remove PoPs across most areas with the
exception being the far wrn 1/3 of the CWFA where isold SHRA/TSRA
will be possible for a few more hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Thunderstorms that moved thru the MAF area have dissipated, however
there are cells developing about 30 ese of MAF. These are developing
near an outflow boundary, but are not expected to make it to MAF.
Winds will settle back to e-se at mostly less than 10 mph tonight.
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Tuesday...KMAF radar is showing
convection breaking out in the Sacramento Mtns...Northern Lea
County...and north of the northern tier of counties in the CWA
(Gaines...Dawson...Borden...and Scurry). There is also an isolated
cell WSW of Big Spring. The convection north of the CWA and near
Big Spring wasn`t forecast on any of the models.

Even though the 12Z MAF sounding showed less mid level moisture
recent water vapor imagery is showing that the mid level moisture
has been increasing. There also could be a subtle shortwave in the
water vapor imagery moving south which could be the reason why
there is convection moving south thru the Panhandle.

Convection will diminish overnight as the strong ridge remains
parked over northern New Mexico. After the convection this
evening...have kept the CWA dry right through next weekend and
into early next week...as mid level moisture should decrease in
the mid/upper level ENE flow.

Concerning the hot temperatures...will let the Heat Advisory
expire at 12Z Wed morning as the thermal ridge stays a little
further west. While Heat Advisory criteria might be met in a few
locations...it does not seem as widespread as the past couple of
days. The thermal ridge will edge east Friday and Saturday...which
will result in widespread 100+ temps...with 105+ in the Trans
Pecos and along portions of the Rio Grande River Valley. Even
though the atmosphere will be drier...overnight lows could stay at
or above 75 degrees. A Heat Advisory might be needed for
Friday/Saturday.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  99  73  99  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              76 102  76 100  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                74 100  72 102  /  20  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  79 103  80 103  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  97  74  99  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  89  69  93  /  20  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   70  97  70  98  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  89  64  91  /  10  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  99  74  99  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  75  99  75  99  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    76 101  75 102  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$
115
FXUS64 KMAF 222320
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
620 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms that moved thru the MAF area have dissipated, however
there are cells developing about 30 ese of MAF. These are developing
near an outflow boundary, but are not expected to make it to MAF.
Winds will settle back to e-se at mostly less than 10 mph tonight.
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Tuesday...KMAF radar is showing
convection breaking out in the Sacramento Mtns...Northern Lea
County...and north of the northern tier of counties in the CWA
(Gaines...Dawson...Borden...and Scurry). There is also an isolated
cell WSW of Big Spring. The convection north of the CWA and near
Big Spring wasn`t forecast on any of the models.

Even though the 12Z MAF sounding showed less mid level moisture
recent water vapor imagery is showing that the mid level moisture
has been increasing. There also could be a subtle shortwave in the
water vapor imagery moving south which could be the reason why
there is convection moving south thru the Panhandle.

Convection will diminish overnight as the strong ridge remains
parked over northern New Mexico. After the convection this
evening...have kept the CWA dry right through next weekend and
into early next week...as mid level moisture should decrease in
the mid/upper level ENE flow.

Concerning the hot temperatures...will let the Heat Advisory
expire at 12Z Wed morning as the thermal ridge stays a little
further west. While Heat Advisory criteria might be met in a few
locations...it does not seem as widespread as the past couple of
days. The thermal ridge will edge east Friday and Saturday...which
will result in widespread 100+ temps...with 105+ in the Trans
Pecos and along portions of the Rio Grande River Valley. Even
though the atmosphere will be drier...overnight lows could stay at
or above 75 degrees. A Heat Advisory might be needed for
Friday/Saturday.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$
950
FXUS64 KMAF 221938
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
238 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Tuesday...KMAF radar is showing
convection breaking out in the Sacramento Mtns...Northern Lea
County...and north of the northern tier of counties in the CWA
(Gaines...Dawson...Borden...and Scurry). There is also an isolated
cell WSW of Big Spring. The convection north of the CWA and near
Big Spring wasn`t forecast on any of the models.

Even though the 12Z MAF sounding showed less mid level moisture
recent water vapor imagery is showing that the mid level moisture
has been increasing. There also could be a subtle shortwave in the
water vapor imagery moving south which could be the reason why
there is convection moving south thru the Panhandle.

Convection will diminish overnight as the strong ridge remains
parked over northern New Mexico. After the convection this
evening...have kept the CWA dry right through next weekend and
into early next week...as mid level moisture should decrease in
the mid/upper level ENE flow.

Concerning the hot temperatures...will let the Heat Advisory
expire at 12Z Wed morning as the thermal ridge stays a little
further west. While Heat Advisory criteria might be met in a few
locations...it does not seem as widespread as the past couple of
days. The thermal ridge will edge east Friday and Saturday...which
will result in widespread 100+ temps...with 105+ in the Trans
Pecos and along portions of the Rio Grande River Valley. Even
though the atmosphere will be drier...overnight lows could stay at
or above 75 degrees. A Heat Advisory might be needed for
Friday/Saturday.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  99  73  99  /  20   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              76 102  76 100  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                74 100  72 102  /  20  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  79 103  80 103  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  97  74  99  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  89  69  93  /  20  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   70  97  70  98  /  20  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  89  64  91  /  20  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  99  74  99  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  75  99  75  99  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    76 101  75 102  /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

12/33
489
FXUS64 KMAF 221656
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1156 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms
are expected to remain west of the terminals through the forecast
period. Winds this afternoon with be east to southeast at
10 to 15 mph and gusty. Winds will diminish to less than 10 mph
tonight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

UPDATE...As of 8:30 AM CDT Tuesday...have updated the
grids/forecast for the morning to remove most of the POPS. KMAF
radar as well as regional radars are indc a rapid decrease of
convection this morning. Will take a look at the aftn/evening
forecast after the models come in. One item of note is that the
12Z MAF sounding showed a significant decrease in mid level
moisture which could lead to less convective initiation this
afternoon.

Strobin

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Diminishing convection just
north of the CWA has sent an outflow boundary south into southeast
NM, briefly shifting winds to a northerly direction this morning
at HOB and CNM. Could see isolated to scattered thunderstorms once
again this afternoon and evening mainly across southeast New Mexico,
possibly affecting CNM and HOB. Confidence is too low at this time
to mention in the current forecast. Otherwise, generally southeast
winds remain in place through Wednesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather across
southeast New Mexico and West Texas through this week, and next
weekend too.  Subtropical moisture swirling beneath the upper ridge
is allowing for convection over the higher terrain during max
heating, as has occurred the past few days.  We`ve also seen
convection last well into the night under the ua ridge, and this
morning is no different with thunderstorms dropping slowly southward
into portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.  Expect to see a
gradual decrease in intensity/coverage with these storms through
22/12Z, as is typical this time of year with a warm, moist and
unstable airmass encompassing the forecast area.  Temperatures will
warm above normal again this afternoon with thunderstorms expected
to develop over the heated higher terrain, especially since an
h85-5 theta e axis will linger over southeast New Mexico, south
through the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and into the Big Bend
region.  It appears coverage will not be as great as yesterday, but
there could still be a few strong storms capable of locally heavy
rainfall, winds over 50 mph and frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes.  Convection will persist into the night, with a repeat
performance over southeast New Mexico possible, perhaps a little
further west.

Slightly drier low level air will mix down over the region Wednesday
as the mentioned subtropical mid and upper level moisture moves
westward.  This should extinguish rain chances, even over the higher
terrain, Wednesday through at least Friday, although there are some
indications subtropical moisture may increase again by Friday or
Saturday.  Of more pressing concern will be the heat as the upper
ridge doesn`t really budge from it`s current location over the
southern U.S. Plains.  The Heat Advisory currently in effect for
the Rio Grande River from Candelaria, downstream to the Lower Trans
Pecos will remain in effect until Wednesday morning.  However, the
possibility exists for the advisory to be extended along the Rio
Grande, if not expanded over the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday through
Friday.  High temperatures above 105 degrees look to be inevitable
in these areas, but since low temperatures may not stay above 75
degrees will defer extension of the Heat Advisory at this time.

The upper ridge will stay centered over the southern U.S. Plains
into next weekend, but will become more east/west oriented as a
series of shortwave troughs traversing the northern Conus suppress
it somewhat southward.  Thereafter, an upper trough is expected to
deepen over the eastern Conus through early next week.  The upper
ridge will retrograde and amplify over the western Conus, although
it will still maintain a good deal of influence over the region.
At this time it appears we may see temperatures closer to normal by
early next week.  If we`re really lucky, we could see a cold front
and an appreciable increase in rain chances early to mid next week.
Will not go out on a limb right now, especially considering how
treacherously wrong progs can be 5 to 7 days in advance during the
summer months.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  75  99  75  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             100  77 101  78  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               103  75 102  73  /  30  30  10   0
DRYDEN TX                 101  80 103  80  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  76  99  74  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          92  70  92  70  /  20  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   96  72  98  72  /  20  20  10   0
MARFA TX                   91  65  91  66  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  76 100  75  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  99  77 100  76  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                   103  78 101  75  /  10  10  10   0

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

99/33
258
FXUS64 KMAF 221335
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
835 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.UPDATE...As of 8:30 AM CDT Tuesday...have updated the
grids/forecast for the morning to remove most of the POPS. KMAF
radar as well as regional radars are indc a rapid decrease of
convection this morning. Will take a look at the aftn/evening
forecast after the models come in. One item of note is that the
12Z MAF sounding showed a significant decrease in mid level
moisture which could lead to less convective initiation this
afternoon.

Strobin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Diminishing convection just
north of the CWA has sent an outflow boundary south into southeast
NM, briefly shifting winds to a northerly direction this morning
at HOB and CNM. Could see isolated to scattered thunderstorms once
again this afternoon and evening mainly across southeast New Mexico,
possibly affecting CNM and HOB. Confidence is too low at this time
to mention in the current forecast. Otherwise, generally southeast
winds remain in place through Wednesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather across
southeast New Mexico and West Texas through this week, and next
weekend too.  Subtropical moisture swirling beneath the upper ridge
is allowing for convection over the higher terrain during max
heating, as has occurred the past few days.  We`ve also seen
convection last well into the night under the ua ridge, and this
morning is no different with thunderstorms dropping slowly southward
into portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.  Expect to see a
gradual decrease in intensity/coverage with these storms through
22/12Z, as is typical this time of year with a warm, moist and
unstable airmass encompassing the forecast area.  Temperatures will
warm above normal again this afternoon with thunderstorms expected
to develop over the heated higher terrain, especially since an
h85-5 theta e axis will linger over southeast New Mexico, south
through the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and into the Big Bend
region.  It appears coverage will not be as great as yesterday, but
there could still be a few strong storms capable of locally heavy
rainfall, winds over 50 mph and frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes.  Convection will persist into the night, with a repeat
performance over southeast New Mexico possible, perhaps a little
further west.

Slightly drier low level air will mix down over the region Wednesday
as the mentioned subtropical mid and upper level moisture moves
westward.  This should extinguish rain chances, even over the higher
terrain, Wednesday through at least Friday, although there are some
indications subtropical moisture may increase again by Friday or
Saturday.  Of more pressing concern will be the heat as the upper
ridge doesn`t really budge from it`s current location over the
southern U.S. Plains.  The Heat Advisory currently in effect for
the Rio Grande River from Candelaria, downstream to the Lower Trans
Pecos will remain in effect until Wednesday morning.  However, the
possibility exists for the advisory to be extended along the Rio
Grande, if not expanded over the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday through
Friday.  High temperatures above 105 degrees look to be inevitable
in these areas, but since low temperatures may not stay above 75
degrees will defer extension of the Heat Advisory at this time.

The upper ridge will stay centered over the southern U.S. Plains
into next weekend, but will become more east/west oriented as a
series of shortwave troughs traversing the northern Conus suppress
it somewhat southward.  Thereafter, an upper trough is expected to
deepen over the eastern Conus through early next week.  The upper
ridge will retrograde and amplify over the western Conus, although
it will still maintain a good deal of influence over the region.
At this time it appears we may see temperatures closer to normal by
early next week.  If we`re really lucky, we could see a cold front
and an appreciable increase in rain chances early to mid next week.
Will not go out on a limb right now, especially considering how
treacherously wrong progs can be 5 to 7 days in advance during the
summer months.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  75  99  75  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             100  77 101  78  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               103  75 102  73  /  30  30  10   0
DRYDEN TX                 101  80 103  80  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  76  99  74  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          92  70  92  70  /  20  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   96  72  98  72  /  20  20  10   0
MARFA TX                   91  65  91  66  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  76 100  75  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  99  77 100  76  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                   103  78 101  75  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

99/33
017
FXUS64 KMAF 221106
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
606 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Diminishing convection just
north of the CWA has sent an outflow boundary south into southeast
NM, briefly shifting winds to a northerly direction this morning
at HOB and CNM. Could see isolated to scattered thunderstorms once
again this afternoon and evening mainly across southeast New Mexico,
possibly affecting CNM and HOB. Confidence is too low at this time
to mention in the current forecast. Otherwise, generally southeast
winds remain in place through Wednesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather across
southeast New Mexico and West Texas through this week, and next
weekend too.  Subtropical moisture swirling beneath the upper ridge
is allowing for convection over the higher terrain during max
heating, as has occurred the past few days.  We`ve also seen
convection last well into the night under the ua ridge, and this
morning is no different with thunderstorms dropping slowly southward
into portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.  Expect to see a
gradual decrease in intensity/coverage with these storms through
22/12Z, as is typical this time of year with a warm, moist and
unstable airmass encompassing the forecast area.  Temperatures will
warm above normal again this afternoon with thunderstorms expected
to develop over the heated higher terrain, especially since an
h85-5 theta e axis will linger over southeast New Mexico, south
through the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and into the Big Bend
region.  It appears coverage will not be as great as yesterday, but
there could still be a few strong storms capable of locally heavy
rainfall, winds over 50 mph and frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes.  Convection will persist into the night, with a repeat
performance over southeast New Mexico possible, perhaps a little
further west.

Slightly drier low level air will mix down over the region Wednesday
as the mentioned subtropical mid and upper level moisture moves
westward.  This should extinguish rain chances, even over the higher
terrain, Wednesday through at least Friday, although there are some
indications subtropical moisture may increase again by Friday or
Saturday.  Of more pressing concern will be the heat as the upper
ridge doesn`t really budge from it`s current location over the
southern U.S. Plains.  The Heat Advisory currently in effect for
the Rio Grande River from Candelaria, downstream to the Lower Trans
Pecos will remain in effect until Wednesday morning.  However, the
possibility exists for the advisory to be extended along the Rio
Grande, if not expanded over the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday through
Friday.  High temperatures above 105 degrees look to be inevitable
in these areas, but since low temperatures may not stay above 75
degrees will defer extension of the Heat Advisory at this time.

The upper ridge will stay centered over the southern U.S. Plains
into next weekend, but will become more east/west oriented as a
series of shortwave troughs traversing the northern Conus suppress
it somewhat southward.  Thereafter, an upper trough is expected to
deepen over the eastern Conus through early next week.  The upper
ridge will retrograde and amplify over the western Conus, although
it will still maintain a good deal of influence over the region.
At this time it appears we may see temperatures closer to normal by
early next week.  If we`re really lucky, we could see a cold front
and an appreciable increase in rain chances early to mid next week.
Will not go out on a limb right now, especially considering how
treacherously wrong progs can be 5 to 7 days in advance during the
summer months.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

27
530
FXUS64 KMAF 220908
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
408 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather across
southeast New Mexico and West Texas through this week, and next
weekend too.  Subtropical moisture swirling beneath the upper ridge
is allowing for convection over the higher terrain during max
heating, as has occurred the past few days.  We`ve also seen
convection last well into the night under the ua ridge, and this
morning is no different with thunderstorms dropping slowly southward
into portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.  Expect to see a
gradual decrease in intensity/coverage with these storms through
22/12Z, as is typical this time of year with a warm, moist and
unstable airmass encompassing the forecast area.  Temperatures will
warm above normal again this afternoon with thunderstorms expected
to develop over the heated higher terrain, especially since an
h85-5 theta e axis will linger over southeast New Mexico, south
through the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and into the Big Bend
region.  It appears coverage will not be as great as yesterday, but
there could still be a few strong storms capable of locally heavy
rainfall, winds over 50 mph and frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes.  Convection will persist into the night, with a repeat
performance over southeast New Mexico possible, perhaps a little
further west.

Slightly drier low level air will mix down over the region Wednesday
as the mentioned subtropical mid and upper level moisture moves
westward.  This should extinguish rain chances, even over the higher
terrain, Wednesday through at least Friday, although there are some
indications subtropical moisture may increase again by Friday or
Saturday.  Of more pressing concern will be the heat as the upper
ridge doesn`t really budge from it`s current location over the
southern U.S. Plains.  The Heat Advisory currently in effect for
the Rio Grande River from Candelaria, downstream to the Lower Trans
Pecos will remain in effect until Wednesday morning.  However, the
possibility exists for the advisory to be extended along the Rio
Grande, if not expanded over the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday through
Friday.  High temperatures above 105 degrees look to be inevitable
in these areas, but since low temperatures may not stay above 75
degrees will defer extension of the Heat Advisory at this time.

The upper ridge will stay centered over the southern U.S. Plains
into next weekend, but will become more east/west oriented as a
series of shortwave troughs traversing the northern Conus suppress
it somewhat southward.  Thereafter, an upper trough is expected to
deepen over the eastern Conus through early next week.  The upper
ridge will retrograde and amplify over the western Conus, although
it will still maintain a good deal of influence over the region.
At this time it appears we may see temperatures closer to normal by
early next week.  If we`re really lucky, we could see a cold front
and an appreciable increase in rain chances early to mid next week.
Will not go out on a limb right now, especially considering how
treacherously wrong progs can be 5 to 7 days in advance during the
summer months.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  75  99  75  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             100  77 101  78  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               103  75 102  73  /  30  30  10   0
DRYDEN TX                 101  80 103  80  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  76  99  74  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          92  70  92  70  /  20  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   96  72  98  72  /  30  20  10   0
MARFA TX                   91  65  91  66  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  76 100  75  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  99  77 100  76  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                   103  78 101  75  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

27/67
445
FXUS64 KMAF 220510
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1210 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Could see isolated to
scattered thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon and evening
mainly across southeast New Mexico, possibly affecting CNM and HOB.
Confidence is too low at this time to mention in the current
forecast. Otherwise, generally southeast winds remain in place
through Tuesday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CDT Monday...KMAF radar is showing
convection popping in the usual spots such as the Davis Mtns...Big
Bend...and the Guadalupe Mtns. Temps have already warmed into the
90s with even a few 100+ readings.

A large upper ridge is located over Northern New Mexico. A lee
trough will remain over extreme West Texas/Eastern New Mexico.
This will serve as the focus for convection this aftn/evening as
well as Tuesday aftn/evening with the deep layer easterly flow
providing upslope conditions. The convection will be mainly
across the usual mountain locales...possibly moving into the New
Mexico Plains. Temps will be above normal...and with the abundant
low level moisture morning lows will stay near 80 along the Rio
Grande. Therefore...have kept the Heat Advisory going thru Wed
morning along the Rio Grande River Valley.

The ridge will strengthen by mid week with very hot temperatures
and dry conditions as mid level moisture becomes limited. There
will be widespread 100+ temps across the CWA...with 105+ along the
Rio Grande and the Trans Pecos regions. There could be enough low
level moisture with the easterly flow to keep overnight lows above
75 along the Rio Grande and Trans Pecos. The heat advisory might
need to be extended through the end of the week and even into the
weekend along the Rio Grande and possibly include the Trans Pecos.

The 12Z GFS is hinting at some relief from the very hot temperatures
.but not til early next week. Be careful with any outdoor
activities for the next seven days and drink plenty of water.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

27
459
FXUS64 KMAF 212203
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
503 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, under the influence of
an upper ridge centered north of the area. W/the exception of
KCNM/KHOB, current convection should stay west of other terminals
invof a sfc trough. This activity should begin diminishing shortly
as peak heating passes. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu
field most terminals by late morning Tuesday, w/bases 5-6 kft agl.
However, convection Tuesday afternoon should stay W and N.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CDT Monday...KMAF radar is showing
convection popping in the usual spots such as the Davis Mtns...Big
Bend...and the Guadalupe Mtns. Temps have already warmed into the
90s with even a few 100+ readings.

A large upper ridge is located over Northern New Mexico. A lee
trough will remain over extreme West Texas/Eastern New Mexico.
This will serve as the focus for convection this aftn/evening as
well as Tuesday aftn/evening with the deep layer easterly flow
providing upslope conditions. The convection will be mainly
across the usual mountain locales...possibly moving into the New
Mexico Plains. Temps will be above normal...and with the abundant
low level moisture morning lows will stay near 80 along the Rio
Grande. Therefore...have kept the Heat Advisory going thru Wed
morning along the Rio Grande River Valley.

The ridge will strengthen by mid week with very hot temperatures
and dry conditions as mid level moisture becomes limited. There
will be widespread 100+ temps across the CWA...with 105+ along the
Rio Grande and the Trans Pecos regions. There could be enough low
level moisture with the easterly flow to keep overnight lows above
75 along the Rio Grande and Trans Pecos. The heat advisory might
need to be extended through the end of the week and even into the
weekend along the Rio Grande and possibly include the Trans Pecos.

The 12Z GFS is hinting at some relief from the very hot temperatures
..but not til early next week. Be careful with any outdoor
activities for the next seven days and drink plenty of water.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

44
348
FXUS64 KMAF 211954
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
254 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CDT Monday...KMAF radar is showing
convection popping in the usual spots such as the Davis Mtns...Big
Bend...and the Guadalupe Mtns. Temps have already warmed into the
90s with even a few 100+ readings.

A large upper ridge is located over Northern New Mexico. A lee
trough will remain over extreme West Texas/Eastern New Mexico.
This will serve as the focus for convection this aftn/evening as
well as Tuesday aftn/evening with the deep layer easterly flow
providing upslope conditions. The convection will be mainly
across the usual mountain locales...possibly moving into the New
Mexico Plains. Temps will be above normal...and with the abundant
low level moisture morning lows will stay near 80 along the Rio
Grande. Therefore...have kept the Heat Advisory going thru Wed
morning along the Rio Grande River Valley.

The ridge will strengthen by mid week with very hot temperatures
and dry conditions as mid level moisture becomes limited. There
will be widespread 100+ temps across the CWA...with 105+ along the
Rio Grande and the Trans Pecos regions. There could be enough low
level moisture with the easterly flow to keep overnight lows above
75 along the Rio Grande and Trans Pecos. The heat advisory might
need to be extended through the end of the week and even into the
weekend along the Rio Grande and possibly include the Trans Pecos.

The 12Z GFS is hinting at some relief from the very hot temperatures
...but not til early next week. Be careful with any outdoor
activities for the next seven days and drink plenty of water.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 75  99  74  98  /  10  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              78  99  78  99  /   0  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                77 102  73 100  /  20  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  80 103  81 102  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           77 100  76  99  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  95  71  92  /  30  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   72  97  71  96  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   66  92  65  90  /  30  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    76  99  74  99  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  78  98  78  98  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                    79 103  77 101  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

05/33
337
FXUS64 KMAF 211700
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1200 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at southeast New Mexico and southwest
Texas terminals through mid-day Tuesday. There is a slight chance
of thunderstorms mainly near the mountains of southeast New Mexico
and southwest Texas and nearby areas including PEQ and CNM. The
probability of occurrence of thunderstorms at these sites is too
low for inclusion in upcoming terminal forecasts. Winds in and
near these thunderstorms will be variable and gusty. Otherwise, no
significant weather is expected through mid-day Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and West
Texas TAF sites during the next 24 hours.  Thunderstorms which
develop this afternoon could affect kPEQ, KCNM, KINK and KHOB this
afternoon or evening.  However, probabilities are too low to include
in the current TAF issuance.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014/

Above normal temperatures are expected the next seven days
as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds across the
southern Rockies eastward to the southern Plains. At the
surface a lee trough is forecast to remain in place across
extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico many days through the next
week. More very intense heating along the surface trough with
upslope flow in the mountains combined with trapped mid level
moisture underneath the upper ridge should generate mainly
afternoon and evening isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains,
portions of the upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall both
today and Tuesday afternoon and evening. High temperatures once
again will be around 105 degrees along the Rio Grande river from
southern Terrell county westward to the Big Bend and Presidio
valley. Will issue a heat advisory through 12Z Wednesday morning
due to high temperatures expected to be at or above 105 degrees
along the Rio Grande with low temperatures expected to be 75 to
80.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to strengthen
and mid level moisture will become limited. Precipitation chances
do not appear high enough at this time to mention in the weather
grids Wednesday through next Monday. Temperatures will continue
to be much above normal. The heat advisory may need to be expanded
both in time and location.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

05
643
FXUS64 KMAF 211052
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
552 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and West
Texas TAF sites during the next 24 hours.  Thunderstorms which
develop this afternoon could affect kPEQ, KCNM, KINK and KHOB this
afternoon or evening.  However, probabilities are too low to include
in the current TAF issuance.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014/

Above normal temperatures are expected the next seven days
as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds across the
southern Rockies eastward to the southern Plains. At the
surface a lee trough is forecast to remain in place across
extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico many days through the next
week. More very intense heating along the surface trough with
upslope flow in the mountains combined with trapped mid level
moisture underneath the upper ridge should generate mainly
afternoon and evening isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains,
portions of the upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall both
today and Tuesday afternoon and evening. High temperatures once
again will be around 105 degrees along the Rio Grande river from
southern Terrell county westward to the Big Bend and Presidio
valley. Will issue a heat advisory through 12Z Wednesday morning
due to high temperatures expected to be at or above 105 degrees
along the Rio Grande with low temperatures expected to be 75 to
80.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to strengthen
and mid level moisture will become limited. Precipitation chances
do not appear high enough at this time to mention in the weather
grids Wednesday through next Monday. Temperatures will continue
to be much above normal. The heat advisory may need to be expanded
both in time and location.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  99  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  74  99  72  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               103  73 102  68  /  20  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                 104  76 103  76  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          101  75 100  73  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          96  70  95  67  /  30  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                   98  69  97  67  /  10  10  20  20
MARFA TX                   93  62  92  61  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  74  99  71  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  76  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   104  77 103  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

67/12
723
FXUS64 KMAF 210912
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
412 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures are expected the next seven days
as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds across the
southern Rockies eastward to the southern Plains. At the
surface a lee trough is forecast to remain in place across
extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico many days through the next
week. More very intense heating along the surface trough with
upslope flow in the mountains combined with trapped mid level
moisture underneath the upper ridge should generate mainly
afternoon and evening isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains,
portions of the upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall both
today and Tuesday afternoon and evening. High temperatures once
again will be around 105 degrees along the Rio Grande river from
southern Terrell county westward to the Big Bend and Presidio
valley. Will issue a heat advisory through 12Z Wednesday morning
due to high temperatures expected to be at or above 105 degrees
along the Rio Grande with low temperatures expected to be 75 to
80.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to strengthen
and mid level moisture will become limited. Precipitation chances
do not appear high enough at this time to mention in the weather
grids Wednesday through next Monday. Temperatures will continue
to be much above normal. The heat advisory may need to be expanded
both in time and location.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  99  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  74  99  72  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               103  73 102  68  /  20  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                 104  76 103  76  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          101  75 100  73  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          96  70  95  67  /  30  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                   98  69  97  67  /  10  10  20  20
MARFA TX                   93  62  92  61  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  74  99  71  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  76  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   104  77 103  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

67/12

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