Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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374
FXUS64 KMAF 302307
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
607 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail into Friday. Winds will increase out
of the southwest Friday afternoon with gusts to near 40 kts
possible at KCNM and lesser further east. Blowing dust is also
possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 238 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level storm system in the Intermountain west will be the
main weather maker through the weekend. Ahead of the system surface
lee troughing, low level thermal ridging has developed and will
continue to produce mainly above normal temperatures through Saturday.
Breezy to very windy conditions are expected to develop Friday across
southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas as the flow through the
column increases. As the upper low approaches Friday afternoon high
winds are likely in the Guadalupe Mountains. A High Wind Warning has
been issued for that location late Friday morning through mid Friday
evening.

A dryline and dry Pacific cold front will surge east on Saturday
just ahead of the slow moving upper low in New Mexico. High temperatures
will cool considerably behind the front but should still remain above
normal.

The upper low will approach west Texas Saturday night and Sunday
in tandem with a northern stream cold front. The interaction of
lift associated with the upper low with the surface cold front
will produce a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly across
the eastern Permian Basin and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos
of west Texas in the best forcing and moisture. Temperatures
Sunday behind the front are expected to be below normal.

Yet another Pacific upper low is forecast to track toward the
Plains and Mississippi Valley next Monday through Wednesday.
Guidance continues to be consistent taking the system on a
much more northerly track. Dry with above normal temperature are
expected with this track Monday and Tuesday with dry and below
to near normal temperatures next Wednesday and Thursday behind
the system.

FIRE WEATHER...
Conditions are coming together for potentially moderate to high
end critical fire wx Fri PM across the west. A sharp low level
thermal ridge will build north from Trans Pecos into SE NM with
temps around 10 degrees above normal. Low level wind fields of
25-35kts and deep mixing will result in surface winds well above
20 mph at times. Other than in the mtns the strongest winds will
probably extend from around Van Horn into the Upper Trans Pecos
and SE NM where a corridor of 25-35 mph sustained winds are
possible. Along with the winds the magnitude of the dry air is
impressive, a large area of 3% RH is possible. There is some
concern about how much fuels will rebound to the dry side.
Currently ERCs are thought to be below the 90th percentile, but
probably above 75th and along the forecast wx there moderate
significant fire potential. As such we have upgrade to a RFW.

There are notable model difference on latest runs, but critical fire
is possible again on Sat, Mon, and Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  88  55  80 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       50  87  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  91  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  55  88  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  73  43  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          48  80  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          37  80  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           53  88  53  78 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         53  86  56  77 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                           50  89  49  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Friday for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-
     Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

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