Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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829
FXUS64 KMAF 231933
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
233 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The cold front that moved through the region this morning has
successfully resulted in very unseasonably cool temperatures and
increased cloud cover for the day. As of 2:30pm CDT, most
locations were still in the 60s. The rain did not end up
developing like we previously thought it would, however areas
across the northeast Permian Basin may see some light rain
through the afternoon. Otherwise, most areas will remain dry for
the remainder of today. Tonight, expect a bit of drying to occur
as a surface ridge moves over the area. Skies should quickly clear
out this evening and overnight temperatures in the upper 40s to
low 50s will be common across the region.

Temperatures will begin to warm Wednesday as upper ridging builds
east, advecting very warm 850mb temps eastward. Wednesday
temperatures are still expected to be somewhat enjoyable with highs
in the 80s to near 90, but that quickly changes Thursday. 850mb
temps near 30 degrees C over the region and modestly strong west,
downsloping winds at the surface suggest high temperatures will
increase to the upper 90s to near 100 most areas. Highs exceeding
100 is likely for areas along and near the Pecos and Rio Grande
River valleys. The record high temperature at Midland Intl for May
25th is 105 and at the moment it looks like this record will remain
however the record for May 26th could be in jeopardy as the
record for that date is only 100. Windy, dry and hot conditions
could pose a fire weather problem Thursday and Friday...please see
the Fire Weather discussion below for more details.

Saturday may be a few degrees cooler for most areas as the upper
ridge and 850 mb thermal ridge get pushed to the south a bit. Areas
across Big Bend and Rio Grande will still see triple digit heat.
Forecast models bring a cold front through the region Sunday
morning, dropping temperatures back to near normal, in the 80s to
low 90s. The air looks to be too dry for widespread precip to
develop with the frontal passage however we may have enough moisture
across SE zones for a few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening.
Will continue to see some decent moisture return on Monday with
east/southeast winds at the surface persisting through Tuesday.
Meanwhile, a series of upper waves are progged progged to move
overhead which may keep rain chances in the forecast Monday through
mid week along with near or below normal temperatures during this
time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire wx concerns will increase quickly across parts of the Trans
Pecos and SE NM Thur extending into the weekend. Across the SE NM
Plains a w wind of 20-25 mph and min RHs near 10 pct are
expected. Meanwhile temps will be around 10 degrees above normal.
There was rain across parts of SE NM yesterday, but fine fuels
will have time to dry out by Thur and certainly Fri. ERC levels
from SWCC keeps ERCs within the 50th percentile across the GDP
Mtns and less than 50th percentile across the SE NM. For we will
issue a watch for the GDP Mtns. By Fri/Sat drying could be more
than enough for a watch, if in SE NM and a continuation GDP Mtns.
Elsewhere unseasonably heat and dryness are a concern, but
Brewster Co should be out of the mix for a few days with recent
widespread heavy rain there.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  86  63 101 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       51  91  62 100 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         57  87  62 100 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  54  90  67 101 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 53  85  65  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          48  86  59  99 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          44  86  50  94 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  86  63 101 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         53  87  63 101 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           51  90  60 103 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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