Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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311
FXUS64 KMAF 072326
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
526 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Leading edge of 3hr MSLP rises have made it to HOB/MAF with
stronger NE winds (15kts) having made it to s of CVN/LBB. Also
there are patches of mostly MVFR CIGS around BPG/MAF. MSLP
gradient will noticeably tighten before 03Z at MAF/HOB when
sustained NE winds will increase 20-23kts. MVFR CIGS will expand
then as well. There is concern for wintry precip as early as 08Z
at PEQ/INK and 10Z at MAF and have started with TEMPO groups then
transitioning to prevailing MVFR CIGS/VSBY with -SN BR. -FZDZ is
possible too, but we have omitted that for now. Precip will
persist until around 18Z-20Z. Snow accumulations of less than 1"
are expected, snow will probably initially melt tempering
accumulation expectations at this point.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 224 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A broad upper trough extends across the country with an upper low
centered on the north end of the Great Lakes.  A cold front will
push southward today towards the CWA, but high temperatures ahead of
the front are expected to warm up into the upper 50s and 60s across
much of the area.  The cold front will begin moving into the CWA
this evening with brisk northeast winds behind it and will continue
through the rest of the area tonight.  Winds will pick up through
Guadalupe Pass overnight into tomorrow morning and are expected to
reach high wind criteria so a High Wind Warning remains in effect
for this area from 2 am to 8 am MST.  This cold air is expected to
result in the first hard freeze across the Western Low Rolling
Plains and portions of the Permian Basin tonight/tomorrow morning so
a Freeze Warning remains in effect.

Precipitation is expected tonight into tomorrow with the passage of
this front. Due to the plummeting temperatures, the precipitation
type will likely be frozen. The NAM12 keeps most of the
precipitation out of the Permian Basin and develops it generally
south and west of the Pecos River. The ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian
develop precipitation covering much of the Permian Basin and
extending south to the Davis Mountains and west to the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico. Will tend to favor these other
models since the NAM appears to be the outlier. GFS forecast
soundings suggest perhaps a brief period of rain followed by a
brief period of sleet and/or freezing rain before transitioning
into snow. The soundings also indicate a dry layer moving over the
area between the -20 and -10 degree isotherms around noon with the
sounding remaining below freezing so perhaps changing over to
freezing drizzle for late morning into the afternoon. Temperatures
during Thursday afternoon are expected to be in the 30s for all of
the CWA except locations near and along the Rio Grande River. The
precipitation is expected to be over with by evening.
Accumulations of ice and snow are expected to be low so did not
issue any winter weather advisories or warnings at this time
although isolated locations may see locally higher amounts.

Light winds with skies beginning to clear will result in very cold
temperatures across the whole area Friday morning. Lows will range
from the upper teens in northern Lea County to around 32 along the
Rio Grande River. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for the
southern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend,and Presidio
Valley for the first freeze and hard freeze Thursday night/Friday
morning. Temperatures start to warm up on Friday with highs in the
40s and 50s and surface winds become southerly. The upper flow
appears to be mainly zonal heading into the weekend. Surface winds
become southwest to westerly on Saturday resulting in downslope
warming and temperatures warming into the upper 50s to 60s.  The GFS
shows another cold front moving into the area next Sunday/Monday but
this front appears to have little to no impact as conditions remain
dry and temperatures do not change much. Temperatures will be near
or above normal in the extended forecast with no precipitation
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     26  33  23  42 /  30  20   0   0
Carlsbad                       28  33  22  44 /  40  20   0   0
Dryden                         38  40  29  45 /  20  20   0   0
Fort Stockton                  32  34  26  48 /  40  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 25  29  20  45 /  40  20   0   0
Hobbs                          23  31  20  42 /  20  20   0   0
Marfa                          32  35  22  48 /  30  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           27  33  23  43 /  30  30   0   0
Odessa                         27  33  23  43 /  30  30   0   0
Wink                           29  34  24  44 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     Big Bend Area-Crane-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Terrell-
     Upton-Ward.

     High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Hard Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Thursday for Ector-
     Glasscock-Howard-Midland-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$