Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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178
FXUS64 KMAF 271955
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
255 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows a broad ridge over the western CONUS, leaving West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico under NW flow aloft.  SW sfc flow has
allowed afternoon temps to rebound to near-normal, w/a couple of
degrees left to go.

Upper ridge will begin breaking down and nudging east over the next
24 hours in response to a trough making landfall in the PacNW.
However, heights/thicknesses will continue increasing thru Sunday as
the ridge moves overhead, resulting in well-abv normal temps Sat/Sun,
w/Sun especially feeling like late May.  However, despite this,
guidance seems a bit warm, w/diurnal spreads to big, perhaps because
both the NAM and GFS initialized too dry on sfc Td.  Forecast
soundings and H85 temps suggest staying on the lower end.  Even so,
temps should be the warmest yet this spring, w/an elevated fire
danger Saturday from the Guadalupes to the Davis/Apache
Mtns.

Unfortunately, this comes to an end Sunday night as a cold front
from the aforementioned PacNW trough moves thru the area, w/fropa at
KMAF at around 23Z Sun.  Latest ECMWF is faster, but w/fronts
weakening as Spring progresses, and diurnal heating Sunday
afternoon, the front will probably stall for a few hrs Sunday
afternoon to the north.  This should take temps back down to around
normal Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary trough will make landfall in SoCal/Nrn Baja
and approach the region, transitioning flow aloft to SW Monday.
Monday night and Tuesday, the trough will move thru the region,
w/the GFS slightly faster/shallower than the ECMWF/DGEX/CMC.  W/the
50 deg isodrosotherm forecast to be west of mid-CWA by 06Z Tuesday,
this will be our best shot at rain this forecast.  Forecast
soundings of the lwr Trans Pecos develop SBCapes in excess of 1000
J/kg, w/PWATs of around 1", or 3 std devs abv normal.  Attm, shear
looks lousy w/the arrival of the trough, but wet-bulb zero heights
will be favorable for a marginal hail threat.

Otherwise, a gradual warmup follows the trough under zonal flow
aloft, w/flat, dirty ridging in place, w/temps above-normal into the
extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 48  88  51  88  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              49  89  51  92  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                47  86  45  86  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  49  88  54  91  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  92  54  93  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          56  80  59  83  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   45  87  53  82  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   35  81  40  83  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    47  89  50  91  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  49  88  53  90  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    45  90  46  91  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/44

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