Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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636
FXUS64 KMAF 160602
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
102 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 16/06Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

BREAKING NEWS: starting to see -CGs just south of KINK, and will
update KINK shortly to add a TEMPO for TSRA until about 08Z.

Somewhat of a complicated forecast this morning. We`re starting to
see cooling cloud tops across the Permian Basin. One area to TSRA
about 80 nm N KMAF looks to be intensifying and building a bit to
the southwest, likely the result of an interaction between an outflow
boundary stretching from KATS eastward to near KSNK and a modest low
level jet. The air mass across all terminals remains very moist and
slightly unstable, and so while convective development may occur
INVOF any terminal this morning, the chances are probably 1:3, too
low to include a TEMPO group at this time. We did add a TEMPO at
KPEQ until 08Z as there`s a better chance of development given
satellite and radar trends.

Another round of TSRA appears likely this afternoon and evening,
with the best chances (1:3) stretching from the Davis Mountains
northeastward across KPEQ, KFST, KINK, and KMAF in the 21Z-03Z
time range. Current thinking is that slightly lower probabilities
of TSRA (1:4) impacting KCNM and KHOB will occur in the 20Z-02Z
range. We`re not confident just yet in adding a PROB30 for this
afternoon and evening, but we`ll evaluate later deterministic and
convection-allowing models for trends, and as such don`t be
surprised if the chances of TSRA increase with the 12Z release.

INVOF TSRA expect MVFR visibilities in RA and maybe BLDU. Variable
winds with gusts near 45 kts are likely in and near TSRA. There`s
also some hint in the model soundings for hybrid microbursts.

Outside of TSRA activity expect VFR conditions. The aforementioned
outflow boundary will bring northeasterly winds south to about the
Pecos River before the boundary dissipates later this morning.
Southerly to southeasterly winds will then return, only to become
chaotic with multiple outflow boundaries affecting all terminals
by mid afternoon.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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