Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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070
FXUS64 KMAF 011930
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV shows the broad,
flat/elongated upper ridge extending from the Pacific to the
Atlantic and covering the southern CONUS has moved north over the
past 24 hrs.  As a result, fairly benign wx will persist over the
next week, w/rain chances slim to none aside from isolated
afternoon/evening convection in the Davis Mtns.  Models also develop
convection in the Rio Grande Valley over the next couple of days,
and try and bring it into the lwr Trans Pecos, but not by much.

Models are similar to 24 hrs ago in developing the upper ridge into
the Gulf Coast region over the next few days, w/temps on the decline
after this afternoon as thicknesses decrease as the ridge moves
east.  Models still exhibit Significant differences in the strength
of the thermal ridge over the next few days.  The NAM remains the
coldest outlier, and appears to cool things off too quickly, and has
been running a bit cool the past few days.  The CMC and ARW came in
the warmest, w/the GFS, ECMWF, and NMM holding the middle ground.
W/the warmer solutions panning out the past few days, we`ve opted to
lean towards the warmer side of guidance.

Upper ridge is forecast to set up shop over the SE CONUS most of the
week, then build back west beginning Friday.  However, models
persist in bringing back a much weaker version than what`s over us
at the moment.  Temps should drop to just a notch above normal by
midweek, and stay there thru the weekend.  Big difference in the
extended models today is a cold front approaching the area Saturday
night.  The GFS stalls this feature in the Wrn Low Rolling Plains,
whereas the ECMWF brings it further into the CWA.  The 00Z ECMWF was
more confident in bringing it all the way to the Rio Grande, whereas
the latest run is more in line w/the GFS.  Models tend to be rather
obstreperous w/the first few cold fronts this time of year, so it
wouldn`t be surprising if the front didn`t make it into the FA at
all, and stalled or dissipated further north.  Finally, a glance at
NAEFS standardized anomalies for Sunday suggest the GFS is the
better solution.  Thus, we`ve leaned toward the warmer GFS, w/no
front.  If the front does make it as far as the GFS suggests, the
Wrn Low Rolling Plains may need some convection added Saturday
night.  For the time being, we`ll keep the grids dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 74 100  72  94  /   0  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              75 100  74  94  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                69 103  74  97  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  78  99  77  93  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           75 102  73  93  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          74  98  68  90  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   68 100  69  94  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   60  93  59  87  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    76 100  74  93  /   0  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  77  99  74  94  /   0  10  10  10
WINK TX                    77 106  75  99  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44

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