Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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847
FXUS64 KMAF 301124
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
SE surface winds less than 10kts will turn to the sw mid morning
and increase 10-15kts as trof develops ahead of front. Opted to
include PROB30 TSRA at MAF/INK/PEQ/HOB 22Z-03Z with strong daytime
heating ahead of front and better mstr/instability in its wake.
Storms that may for s of front will be especially capable of gusty
downburst type winds. Front will be thru all TAFs by 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is over the eastern conus and a shortwave is
moving over Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle on the backside of this
trough.  Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving across the
above mentioned area as a result of the increased lift.  A cold
front associated with this shortwave will move south toward the CWA
today.  A surface trough will be present this afternoon ahead of the
front so high temperatures will warm into the triple digits for many
places.  There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for
the CWA as the front approaches.

The front will move through the CWA on Thursday with temperatures
behind the front cooling to below normal values.  Chances of showers
and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday with the best chances
being across the higher terrain near the edge of the front.
Precipitation will still be present on Friday in roughly the same
areas as the region remains under northwest flow aloft.  Temperatures
will gradually start to warm up on Friday as the surface high moves
away from the region.  Conditions will be similar on Saturday and on
through the beginning of next week with below normal temperatures
and convection remaining across the area.  Upper ridging will take
shape over the region with precipitation remaining across the higher
terrain the beginning of next week.  During the middle part of next
week, a trough will move over the Upper Midwest with another cold
front approaching the area.  This will contribute to more showers
and thunderstorms developing near the front.  Temperatures are
expected to be near or below normal values in the extended forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
100
FXUS64 KMAF 300959
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
458 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is over the eastern conus and a shortwave is
moving over Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle on the backside of this
trough.  Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving across the
above mentioned area as a result of the increased lift.  A cold
front associated with this shortwave will move south toward the CWA
today.  A surface trough will be present this afternoon ahead of the
front so high temperatures will warm into the triple digits for many
places.  There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for
the CWA as the front approaches.

The front will move through the CWA on Thursday with temperatures
behind the front cooling to below normal values.  Chances of showers
and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday with the best chances
being across the higher terrain near the edge of the front.
Precipitation will still be present on Friday in roughly the same
areas as the region remains under northwest flow aloft.  Temperatures
will gradually start to warm up on Friday as the surface high moves
away from the region.  Conditions will be similar on Saturday and on
through the beginning of next week with below normal temperatures
and convection remaining across the area.  Upper ridging will take
shape over the region with precipitation remaining across the higher
terrain the beginning of next week.  During the middle part of next
week, a trough will move over the Upper Midwest with another cold
front approaching the area.  This will contribute to more showers
and thunderstorms developing near the front.  Temperatures are
expected to be near or below normal values in the extended forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                101  68  85  66  /  20  20  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              98  68  85  68  /  20  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                99  70  85  69  /  20  30  20  40
DRYDEN TX                 101  76  96  75  /   0  10  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX          102  71  88  70  /  20  20  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          93  62  80  64  /  20  30  30  40
HOBBS NM                   97  66  83  64  /  20  30  20  30
MARFA TX                   92  66  85  65  /  30  20  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  69  87  68  /  20  20  20  20
ODESSA TX                 101  68  87  69  /  20  20  20  20
WINK TX                   104  72  91  71  /  20  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/80
176
FXUS64 KMAF 300517
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1217 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Winds slowly turning back to the SE INVOF MAF as wind shift
assocd with earlier outflow boundary wanes. Today another
boundary will turn winds back to the n-ne late this
afternoon/early evening except at FST. There are concerns for
tstms to be near TAF sites this afternoon, but best instability
looks to be in wake of the front where better mstr will be found.
For now will leave tstms out of TAFs since its in the later part
of the fcst, but may include some PROB30 groups on 12Z issuance.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
995
FXUS64 KMAF 292325
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
625 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Most of the afternoon storms have moved off to the east and not
expecting much else the rest of the night. Do have a large
boundary on radar across the central Permian Basin that will have
to be monitored for development. The wind field is generally
light and variable but should tend to go around to south by
tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Weak stationary front across the Permian Basin is forecast to
retreat northward tonight and early Wednesday. Will continue
isolated thunderstorms north of the boundary across the extreme
northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico and the mountains
through Wednesday morning in the cooler air aloft. The boundary
is expected to push back south toward the lower Trans Pecos
and Davis Mountains by Thursday morning due to the amplification
of the upper low across eastern Canada. Accordingly the chance of
showers and thunderstorms (slight chance) will increase north of
this boundary later Wednesday and Wednesday night for the northern
and central Permian Basin, upper Trans Pecos and including southeast
New Mexico.

The cold front will continue to push south toward the Rio Grande
River Thursday and Thursday night. This will push the better
chance of convection to areas mainly south and west of the
Pecos River during the day Thursday. Behind this front high
temperatures Thursday are expected to be around 15 degrees
cooler north of the Pecos River. The chance of thunderstorms
will include the entire forecast area Thursday night due to
a shortwave tracking into the area from the northwest with
some warm advection taking place above and behind the front.

For Friday through Sunday the front is forecast to stall along
and or near the Rio Grande River. This will keep the chance of
thunderstorms continuing through all these periods mainly south and
west of the Pecos River with the best chance in the mountains
closest to the front with unstable upslope flow behind the
front. Temperatures are expected to be below normal in the cooler
air behind the front with a significant amount of cloud cover
expected areawide as well.

Beyond Sunday kept a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
mountains in upslope flow on Monday. The GFS model is indicating
much more widespread convection Monday and Tuesday due to
shortwaves trapped within the upper ridge in the area. The ECMWF
model is not indicating this scenario so will not go with that
solultion this far out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72 102  65  84  /  10  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              74 102  67  82  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                72 103  69  87  /  10  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  76 108  76  95  /  10   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           73 103  69  91  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  96  62  79  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   68  98  65  86  /  10  20  30  10
MARFA TX                   62  94  66  85  /  10  30  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73 103  68  85  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  75 102  68  86  /  10  10  20  10
WINK TX                    75 106  72  90  /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
373
FXUS64 KMAF 292000
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
300 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Weak stationary front across the Permian Basin is forecast to
retreat northward tonight and early Wednesday. Will continue
isolated thunderstorms north of the boundary across the extreme
northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico and the mountains
through Wednesday morning in the cooler air aloft. The boundary
is expected to push back south toward the lower Trans Pecos
and Davis Mountains by Thursday morning due to the amplification
of the upper low across eastern Canada. Accordingly the chance of
showers and thunderstorms (slight chance) will increase north of
this boundary later Wednesday and Wednesday night for the northern
and central Permian Basin, upper Trans Pecos and including southeast
New Mexico.

The cold front will continue to push south toward the Rio Grande
River Thursday and Thursday night. This will push the better
chance of convection to areas mainly south and west of the
Pecos River during the day Thursday. Behind this front high
temperatures Thursday are expected to be around 15 degrees
cooler north of the Pecos River. The chance of thunderstorms
will include the entire forecast area Thursday night due to
a shortwave tracking into the area from the northwest with
some warm advection taking place above and behind the front.

For Friday through Sunday the front is forecast to stall along
and or near the Rio Grande River. This will keep the chance of
thunderstorms continuing through all these periods mainly south and
west of the Pecos River with the best chance in the mountains
closest to the front with unstable upslope flow behind the
front. Temperatures are expected to be below normal in the cooler
air behind the front with a significant amount of cloud cover
expected areawide as well.

Beyond Sunday kept a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
mountains in upslope flow on Monday. The GFS model is indicating
much more widespread convection Monday and Tuesday due to
shortwaves trapped within the upper ridge in the area. The ECMWF
model is not indicating this scenario so will not go with that
solultion this far out.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72 102  65  84  /  10  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              74 102  67  82  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                72 103  69  87  /  10  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  76 108  76  95  /  10   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           73 103  69  91  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  96  62  79  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   68  98  65  86  /  10  20  30  10
MARFA TX                   62  94  66  85  /  10  30  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73 103  68  85  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  75 102  68  86  /  10  10  20  10
WINK TX                    75 106  72  90  /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/12
111
FXUS64 KMAF 291657
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1157 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with no significant weather will be the rule across
southwest Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals through 18Z
Wednesday. An area of rain and embedded thunderstorms is expected
to remain north of CNM and HOB through the afternoon. Redevelopment
of thunderstorms in this area is likely, though activity will
continue to remain mainly north with only slight chances of
thunderstorms at CNM and HOB and isolated thunderstorms elsewhere
with chances too small to include in terminal forecasts. Winds
will be generally south to southeast at 10 to 15 knots this
afternoon and into the evening with a few gusts mainly in the Permian
Basin area including MAF. Overnight and into Wednesday morning,
winds will become mostly southerly at less than 10 knots.
Cloudiness will be mostly constrained to southeast New Mexico with
broken mid- and upper- level clouds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
out of the south to southeast with some possible gusts this afternoon.
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms through the period, but
probabilities remain low so left out of TAFS for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Tstms have moved into the far NW CWFA and are slowly
moving/developing to the e-se, but looks like intensity is steady
or slowly weakening. We made some adjustment to short term PoPs
and wx grids to account for increased rain chances this morning
in far NW CWFA. Otherwise model consensus for today is that the
subtropical ridge will be centered INVOF srn AZ leaving much of
the CWFA in NW flow aloft. Meanwhile radar last showed surface
boundary nearing the Pecos River and still pushing s. There is
some hint in the MSLP/surface wind fields for this PM that a
boundary will be oriented NW-SE across the far nrn CWFA or just to
the n of it. SB LI fields this PM indicate best instability will
be from the Davis Mtns w-nw and then across the far nw-n CWFA.
This is what models were depicting several days ago and we will
orient low order PoPs as such btwn 18Z-06Z. Wed all models agree
it will be hot and that n of the cold front it will be much more
unstable. GFS has come around to the ECMWF`s solution from a few
days ago with an earlier FROPA. Most areas s of I-20 will remain
stable. Models agree fairly well that in evening as front moves
into the PB the chance of SHRA/TSRA will increase, which is
generally what we have in the current forecast and will make only
minor changes. There`s a good chance that this early arrival of
front will result in diminished chance of precip Thur PM, especially
n of I-20. As such will need to re-orient PoPs in grids for Thur
PM. The good news is Thur will be much cooler, approximately 5-10
below normal n of I-20. Still we will need to watch in the NW flow
aloft Thur night/early Fri AM for possibility of storms across
w-nw. Moist upslope flow will favor isold/slght chc PoPs in the
mtns Fri/Sat PM. Sun/Mon looks dry with monsoonal moisture
focusing across wrn NM/AZ. 5h heights remain low too and MEX
guidance optimistically keep lows in the mid to upper 60s Thur-
Tue.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05
663
FXUS64 KMAF 291123
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
615 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
out of the south to southeast with some possible gusts this afternoon.
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms through the period, but
probabilities remain low so left out of TAFS for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Tstms have moved into the far NW CWFA and are slowly
moving/developing to the e-se, but looks like intensity is steady
or slowly weakening. We made some adjustment to short term PoPs
and wx grids to account for increased rain chances this morning
in far NW CWFA. Otherwise model consensus for today is that the
subtropical ridge will be centered INVOF srn AZ leaving much of
the CWFA in NW flow aloft. Meanwhile radar last showed surface
boundary nearing the Pecos River and still pushing s. There is
some hint in the MSLP/surface wind fields for this PM that a
boundary will be oriented NW-SE across the far nrn CWFA or just to
the n of it. SB LI fields this PM indicate best instability will
be from the Davis Mtns w-nw and then across the far nw-n CWFA.
This is what models were depicting several days ago and we will
orient low order PoPs as such btwn 18Z-06Z. Wed all models agree
it will be hot and that n of the cold front it will be much more
unstable. GFS has come around to the ECMWF`s solution from a few
days ago with an earlier FROPA. Most areas s of I-20 will remain
stable. Models agree fairly well that in evening as front moves
into the PB the chance of SHRA/TSRA will increase, which is
generally what we have in the current forecast and will make only
minor changes. There`s a good chance that this early arrival of
front will result in diminished chance of precip Thur PM, especially
n of I-20. As such will need to re-orient PoPs in grids for Thur
PM. The good news is Thur will be much cooler, approximately 5-10
below normal n of I-20. Still we will need to watch in the NW flow
aloft Thur night/early Fri AM for possibility of storms across
w-nw. Moist upslope flow will favor isold/slght chc PoPs in the
mtns Fri/Sat PM. Sun/Mon looks dry with monsoonal moisture
focusing across wrn NM/AZ. 5h heights remain low too and MEX
guidance optimistically keep lows in the mid to upper 60s Thur-
Tue.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
220
FXUS64 KMAF 290841
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
341 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tstms have moved into the far NW CWFA and are slowly
moving/developing to the e-se, but looks like intensity is steady
or slowly weakening. We made some adjustment to short term PoPs
and wx grids to account for increased rain chances this morning
in far NW CWFA. Otherwise model consensus for today is that the
subtropical ridge will be centered INVOF srn AZ leaving much of
the CWFA in NW flow aloft. Meanwhile radar last showed surface
boundary nearing the Pecos River and still pushing s. There is
some hint in the MSLP/surface wind fields for this PM that a
boundary will be oriented NW-SE across the far nrn CWFA or just to
the n of it. SB LI fields this PM indicate best instability will
be from the Davis Mtns w-nw and then across the far nw-n CWFA.
This is what models were depicting several days ago and we will
orient low order PoPs as such btwn 18Z-06Z. Wed all models agree
it will be hot and that n of the cold front it will be much more
unstable. GFS has come around to the ECMWF`s solution from a few
days ago with an earlier FROPA. Most areas s of I-20 will remain
stable. Models agree fairly well that in evening as front moves
into the PB the chance of SHRA/TSRA will increase, which is
generally what we have in the current forecast and will make only
minor changes. There`s a good chance that this early arrival of
front will result in diminished chance of precip Thur PM, especially
n of I-20. As such will need to re-orient PoPs in grids for Thur
PM. The good news is Thur will be much cooler, approximately 5-10
below normal n of I-20. Still we will need to watch in the NW flow
aloft Thur night/early Fri AM for possibility of storms across
w-nw. Moist upslope flow will favor isold/slght chc PoPs in the
mtns Fri/Sat PM. Sun/Mon looks dry with monsoonal moisture
focusing across wrn NM/AZ. 5h heights remain low too and MEX
guidance optimistically keep lows in the mid to upper 60s Thur-
Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 94  72  98  64  /  10  10  10  30
BIG SPRING TX              94  75 100  68  /  10  10  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                98  73 101  69  /  20  10  10  30
DRYDEN TX                 103  78 106  78  /  10  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  73 101  69  /  10  10  10  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          87  70  94  60  /  20  20  10  30
HOBBS NM                   92  69  96  65  /  20  10  10  30
MARFA TX                   88  63  92  65  /  10  10  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    95  74 101  67  /  10  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                  95  75 100  67  /  10  10  10  30
WINK TX                   100  75 102  72  /  10  10  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
079
FXUS64 KMAF 290523
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
out of the southeast overnight and will gradually weaken over the
next few hours.  Winds will become southerly Tuesday afternoon with
some possible gusts.  There is a slight chance of thunderstorms for
HOB through the period, but probabilities remain low so left out of
TAFS for now.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered directly over West
Texas/SE NM, a bit further south than 24 hours ago.  However, the
ridge has weakened slightly, and w/abundant cloud cover noted on vis
sat imagery and out the window, temperatures are noticeably cooler
this afternoon than yesterday. Yesterday`s boundary that stalled
north of the FA finally moved south this morning/afternoon,
spawning an almost instantaneous cu field along and behind it.
Area radars show a few cells trying to develop near KSWW, near a
bullseye of 2000+ sbcape over KSNK. The NAM develops stronger
convection on a vort max moving into east central NM this evening,
but that should stay mostly north of here. Aside from that, we`ve
inserted isolated POPs this evening...mainly north of the Pecos
along the boundary. NAM then hints at moving this feature back
north overnight, which will serve as a focus for Tuesday over the
northern zones.

Temps Tuesday should be similar to today`s, but temps are still on
tap to climb back into the triple digits Wednesday afternoon as
thicknesses spike and south winds increase in response to leeside
troughing.  However, a cold front is still on tap to move into the
area Wednesday night.  Models are considerably stronger w/this
feature than 24 hours ago, and this looks to the best focus/trigger
for convection this forecast.  Models hint at a high wind event for
post-frontal gap winds at KGDP...but given winds from the
N-NE...we`ll not bite on this just yet...as a more E-W orientation
is preferred.  Thursday afternoon looks cool, w/H85 temps in the NE
zones in the upper teens by 00Z Friday.  Much will depend on extent
of Wednesday night`s rainfall, and residual cloud cover behind the
front.

Friday, things begin warming back up as the upper ridge sets up over
the Four Corners more or less into the extended.  However, temps
should remain below normal as thicknesses don`t budge much and the
CWA remains in easterly or even northeasterly flow.  Again, w/no
triggers to focus on, and minor disturbances moving thru the east
side of the ridge, cannot rule out the low-POP, shotgun scenario
currently in the grids.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
255
FXUS64 KMAF 282304
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
604 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over New Mexico this evening
and tonight.  Probabilities are too low to include at KCNM or KHOB
though.  Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail areawide
during the next 24 hours.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered directly over West
Texas/SE NM, a bit further south than 24 hours ago.  However, the
ridge has weakened slightly, and w/abundant cloud cover noted on vis
sat imagery and out the window, temperatures are noticeably cooler
this afternoon than yesterday. Yesterday`s boundary that stalled
north of the FA finally moved south this morning/afternoon,
spawning an almost instantaneous cu field along and behind it.
Area radars show a few cells trying to develop near KSWW, near a
bullseye of 2000+ sbcape over KSNK. The NAM develops stronger
convection on a vort max moving into east central NM this evening,
but that should stay mostly north of here. Aside from that, we`ve
inserted isolated POPs this evening...mainly north of the Pecos
along the boundary. NAM then hints at moving this feature back
north overnight, which will serve as a focus for Tuesday over the
northern zones.

Temps Tuesday should be similar to today`s, but temps are still on
tap to climb back into the triple digits Wednesday afternoon as
thicknesses spike and south winds increase in response to leeside
troughing.  However, a cold front is still on tap to move into the
area Wednesday night.  Models are considerably stronger w/this
feature than 24 hours ago, and this looks to the best focus/trigger
for convection this forecast.  Models hint at a high wind event for
post-frontal gap winds at KGDP...but given winds from the
N-NE...we`ll not bite on this just yet...as a more E-W orientation
is preferred.  Thursday afternoon looks cool, w/H85 temps in the NE
zones in the upper teens by 00Z Friday.  Much will depend on extent
of Wednesday night`s rainfall, and residual cloud cover behind the
front.

Friday, things begin warming back up as the upper ridge sets up over
the Four Corners more or less into the extended.  However, temps
should remain below normal as thicknesses don`t budge much and the
CWA remains in easterly or even northeasterly flow.  Again, w/no
triggers to focus on, and minor disturbances moving thru the east
side of the ridge, cannot rule out the low-POP, shotgun scenario
currently in the grids.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  96  72 101  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              74  95  73 100  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                74  95  69 101  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  76  96  73 101  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  98  73 102  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  86  72  89  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   71  94  70  98  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   60  88  62  90  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  96  73 101  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  76  96  72 101  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    76 101  74 104  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44
135
FXUS64 KMAF 282000
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered directly over West
Texas/SE NM, a bit further south than 24 hours ago.  However, the
ridge has weakened slightly, and w/abundant cloud cover noted ob vis
sat imagery and out the window, temperatures are noticeably cooler
this afternoon than yesterday.  Yesterday`s boundary that stalled
north of the FA finally moved south this morning/afternoon, spawning
an almost instantaneous cu field along and behind it.  Area radars
show a few cells trying to develop near KSWW, near a bullseye of
2000+ sbcape over KSNK.  The NAM develops stronger convection on a
vort max moving into east central NM this evening, but that should
stay mostly north of here.  Aside from that, we`ve inserted isolated
POPs this evening...mainly north of the Pecos along the boundary.
NAM then hints at moving this feature back north overnight, which
will serve as a focus for Tuesday over the northern
zones.

Temps Tuesday should be similar to today`s, but temps are still on
tap to climb back into the triple digits Wednesday afternoon as
thicknesses spike and south winds increase in response to leeside
troughing.  However, a cold front is still on tap to move into the
area Wednesday night.  Models are considerably stronger w/this
feature than 24 hours ago, and this looks to the best focus/trigger
for convection this forecast.  Models hint at a high wind event for
post-frontal gap winds at KGDP...but given winds from the
N-NE...we`ll not bite on this just yet...as a more E-W orientation
is preferred.  Thursday afternoon looks cool, w/H85 temps in the NE
zones in the upper teens by 00Z Friday.  Much will depend on extent
of Wednesday night`s rainfall, and residual cloud cover behind the
front.

Friday, things begin warming back up as the upper ridge sets up over
the Four Corners more or less into the extended.  However, temps
should remain below normal as thicknesses don`t budge much and the
CWA remains in easterly or even northeasterly flow.  Again, w/no
triggers to focus on, and minor disturbances moving thru the east
side of the ridge, cannot rule out the low-POP, shotgun scenario
currently in the grids.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  96  72 101  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              74  95  73 100  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                74  95  69 101  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  76  96  73 101  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  98  73 102  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  86  72  89  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   71  94  70  98  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   60  88  62  90  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  96  73 101  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  76  96  72 101  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    76 101  74 104  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44
321
FXUS64 KMAF 281731
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1231 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Cold front across the
northern Permian Basin is expected to push south toward the central
Permian Basin and then stall before moving north again late tonight.
With an upper ridge over the region confidence was not high enough
at this time to mention any thunderstorms at any of the terminals
at this time. Will continue to monitor. Winds will generally be
easterly at 10 to 20 mph and gusty this afternoon. Winds should
generally diminish to 10 mph or less early this evening and
continue overnight.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. A front continues to slowly sink south
toward HOB this morning and may finally make it near MAF by late
morning. Expect strong easterly winds at both HOB and MAF through
the afternoon. Elsewhere, SE winds are expected to increase
throughout the morning then diminish after sunset. Could see some
isolated convection develop along/near the front this afternoon and
evening, possibly affecting HOB, CNM and MAF but will hold off on
any mention of this in the TAF for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The Subtropical ridge centered over the TX/NM border this morning
extends northward into Canada.  This center of this high will slowly
shift west the next few days as a large upper trough deepens over
the Eastern U.S.  This will allow for slightly cooler temps to
return to the region with increasing rain chances.

Have had storms over NE NM and the Panhandle most of the night which
have put out a good outflow reinforcing a weak front moving into
northern CWA as of 08z.  Thunderstorm development between Fort
Davis and Pine Springs has been on the increase and these may
continue until morning.  Latest MAF sounding had PW back to near
1.25 inches so locally could have some good rainfall for those
lucky enough to get rain.  The front should not make it too far
into the area before stalling out and trying to lift back to the
north Tuesday.  Not expecting much of a wind shift with the front
but surface wind should become easterly today across the area.

Had another unusually warm night with midnight temps generally in
the 80s but had 90 at Presidio and 91 at Carlsbad.  Also had more
clouds over the western half of the area that was slowing cooling.
There have been 6 days of 100 degrees during July at MAF but all
have been in the last 8 days.  Will cancel heat advisory for along
the Rio Grande with morning forecast issuance as highs today should
be 100 to 103 along the Rio Grande.  Highs for most of the rest of
the area should return to the upper 90s.  Highs across the Permian
Basin could briefly return to near 100 again on Wednesday.  Another
front looks to blow through the area Wednesday late afternoon or early
evening with a gusty north wind which will be unusually strong for
the middle of summer.  This will bring below normal temps to the region
for a few days with guidance trying to push highs down into the 80s
by the weekend.  Kept forecast on the warm side of guidance.

Rain chances will increase Wednesday and Thursday with the second front.
Will leave the widespread low pops in the extended... expect pops to
increase for some of these days as they get closer.  Current long
range GFS looks very wet for Saturday but still a long ways out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  72  97  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              96  71  97  72  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                98  73  98  73  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  98  76  98  74  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  73  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          90  69  89  71  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   94  71  95  71  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   90  60  89  61  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    98  73  97  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  97  73  97  76  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   101  75 101  75  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/72
510
FXUS64 KMAF 281120
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
620 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. A front continues to slowly sink south
toward HOB this morning and may finally make it near MAF by late
morning. Expect strong easterly winds at both HOB and MAF through
the afternoon. Elsewhere, SE winds are expected to increase
throughout the morning then diminish after sunset. Could see some
isolated convection develop along/near the front this afternoon and
evening, possibly affecting HOB, CNM and MAF but will hold off on
any mention of this in the TAF for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The Subtropical ridge centered over the TX/NM border this morning
extends northward into Canada.  This center of this high will slowly
shift west the next few days as a large upper trough deepens over
the Eastern U.S.  This will allow for slightly cooler temps to
return to the region with increasing rain chances.

Have had storms over NE NM and the Panhandle most of the night which
have put out a good outflow reinforcing a weak front moving into
northern CWA as of 08z.  Thunderstorm development between Fort
Davis and Pine Springs has been on the increase and these may
continue until morning.  Latest MAF sounding had PW back to near
1.25 inches so locally could have some good rainfall for those
lucky enough to get rain.  The front should not make it too far
into the area before stalling out and trying to lift back to the
north Tuesday.  Not expecting much of a wind shift with the front
but surface wind should become easterly today across the area.

Had another unusually warm night with midnight temps generally in
the 80s but had 90 at Presidio and 91 at Carlsbad.  Also had more
clouds over the western half of the area that was slowing cooling.
There have been 6 days of 100 degrees during July at MAF but all
have been in the last 8 days.  Will cancel heat advisory for along
the Rio Grande with morning forecast issuance as highs today should
be 100 to 103 along the Rio Grande.  Highs for most of the rest of
the area should return to the upper 90s.  Highs across the Permian
Basin could briefly return to near 100 again on Wednesday.  Another
front looks to blow through the area Wednesday late afternoon or early
evening with a gusty north wind which will be unusually strong for
the middle of summer.  This will bring below normal temps to the region
for a few days with guidance trying to push highs down into the 80s
by the weekend.  Kept forecast on the warm side of guidance.

Rain chances will increase Wednesday and Thursday with the second front.
Will leave the widespread low pops in the extended... expect pops to
increase for some of these days as they get closer.  Current long
range GFS looks very wet for Saturday but still a long ways out.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27
505
FXUS64 KMAF 280855
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
355 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The Subtropical ridge centered over the TX/NM border this morning
extends northward into Canada.  This center of this high will slowly
shift west the next few days as a large upper trough deepens over
the Eastern U.S.  This will allow for slightly cooler temps to
return to the region with increasing rain chances.

Have had storms over NE NM and the Panhandle most of the night which
have put out a good outflow reinforcing a weak front moving into
northern CWA as of 08z.  Thunderstorm development between Fort
Davis and Pine Springs has been on the increase and these may
continue until morning.  Latest MAF sounding had PW back to near
1.25 inches so locally could have some good rainfall for those
lucky enough to get rain.  The front should not make it too far
into the area before stalling out and trying to lift back to the
north Tuesday.  Not expecting much of a wind shift with the front
but surface wind should become easterly today across the area.

Had another unusually warm night with midnight temps generally in
the 80s but had 90 at Presidio and 91 at Carlsbad.  Also had more
clouds over the western half of the area that was slowing cooling.
There have been 6 days of 100 degrees during July at MAF but all
have been in the last 8 days.  Will cancel heat advisory for along
the Rio Grande with morning forecast issuance as highs today should
be 100 to 103 along the Rio Grande.  Highs for most of the rest of
the area should return to the upper 90s.  Highs across the Permian
Basin could briefly return to near 100 again on Wednesday.  Another
front looks to blow through the area Wednesday late afternoon or early
evening with a gusty north wind which will be unusually strong for
the middle of summer.  This will bring below normal temps to the region
for a few days with guidance trying to push highs down into the 80s
by the weekend.  Kept forecast on the warm side of guidance.

Rain chances will increase Wednesday and Thursday with the second front.
Will leave the widespread low pops in the extended... expect pops to
increase for some of these days as they get closer.  Current long
range GFS looks very wet for Saturday but still a long ways out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  72  97  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              96  71  97  72  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                98  73  98  73  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  98  76  98  74  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  73  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          90  69  89  71  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   94  71  95  71  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   90  60  89  61  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    98  73  97  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  97  73  97  76  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   101  75 101  75  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/72
060
FXUS64 KMAF 280522
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Currently have E/SE winds area wide
tonight however a front, now moving south through LBB, may reach
HOB around 28/12Z (given the front maintains its current speed),
briefly shifting winds to the NE. SE winds are expected to
increase throughout the morning as the front stalls just north of
the terminals. Therefore will maintain strong SE winds through
Monday afternoon at all sites. Could see some convection develop
along/near the front Monday evening, possibly affecting HOB, CNM and
MAF but will hold off on any mention of this in the TAF for now.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014/

Not many changes to the current forecast. WV imagery shows an
elongated upper ridge centered just north of West Texas/SE NM,
allowing for another day of widespread triple-digit temps across
the area. At the sfc, a weak front/boundary lies across the S.
Plains, w/return flow to the south. A dense cu field has developed
over the mtns, and upslope flow this afternoon/evening will focus
isolated chances of convection there.

Monday, thicknesses begin decreasing, and should drop temps area-
wide by about a category Monday and Tuesday afternoons.
Aforementioned front may make it into SE NM and the Western Low
Rolling Plains, and be the focus of isolated convection along a
zone of low lvl convergence as depicted by the 12Z NAM. Wednesday,
strong return flow resumes as a leeside sfc trough drifts south
into the area. Models show a spike in thicknesses across the area,
and afternoon temps may reach the century mark one more time for
this forecast.

Late Wednesday night/Thursday morning, models bring a stronger
cold front thru the region. Front may hang up during the day a
little, but models take it to the Rio Grande by 12Z Friday. Along
w/isolated-slight chances of rain w/the front, temps Thu afternoon
should top out right around normal, and below-normal Friday,
w/models forecasting H85 temps ranging near 20C NE to under 30C
SW. Long-range models are similar on temps, but much will also
depend on extent of cloud cover/rain. Temps begin coming back up
Saturday, but models hint at another front Saturday night, for
below-normal temps again Sunday.

During this time, models really moisten the column up, w/PWATs
increasing to 1.5-2" by Saturday. The GFS raises PWATs at KMAF to
around 1.9" Saturday...about 3 std devs above normal.  Thus, the
potential for heavy rainfall will be there over the weekend as
models bring disturbances thru the east side of the ridge. For
now, we`ll continue a low-POP shotgun approach, as this is too far
out to accurately hone in on triggers.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

27
266
FXUS64 KMAF 272302
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms should decrease in coverage around sunset, or shortly
thereafter.  VFR conditions will prevail throughout the next 24
hours at all southeast New Mexico and West Texas.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014/

Not many changes to the current forecast. WV imagery shows an
elongated upper ridge centered just north of West Texas/SE NM,
allowing for another day of widespread triple-digit temps across
the area. At the sfc, a weak front/boundary lies across the S.
Plains, w/return flow to the south. A dense cu field has developed
over the mtns, and upslope flow this afternoon/evening will focus
isolated chances of convection there.

Monday, thicknesses begin decreasing, and should drop temps area-
wide by about a category Monday and Tuesday afternoons.
Aforementioned front may make it into SE NM and the Western Low
Rolling Plains, and be the focus of isolated convection along a
zone of low lvl convergence as depicted by the 12Z NAM. Wednesday,
strong return flow resumes as a leeside sfc trough drifts south
into the area. Models show a spike in thicknesses across the area,
and afternoon temps may reach the century mark one more time for
this forecast.

Late Wednesday night/Thursday morning, models bring a stronger
cold front thru the region. Front may hang up during the day a
little, but models take it to the Rio Grande by 12Z Friday. Along
w/isolated-slight chances of rain w/the front, temps Thu afternoon
should top out right around normal, and below-normal Friday,
w/models forecasting H85 temps ranging near 20C NE to under 30C
SW. Long-range models are similar on temps, but much will also
depend on extent of cloud cover/rain. Temps begin coming back up
Saturday, but models hint at another front Saturday night, for
below-normal temps again Sunday.

During this time, models really moisten the column up, w/PWATs
increasing to 1.5-2" by Saturday. The GFS raises PWATs at KMAF to
around 1.9" Saturday...about 3 std devs above normal.  Thus, the
potential for heavy rainfall will be there over the weekend as
models bring disturbances thru the east side of the ridge. For
now, we`ll continue a low-POP shotgun approach, as this is too far
out to accurately hone in on triggers.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

99
488
FXUS64 KMAF 272002
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
302 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows an
elongated upper ridge centered just north of West Texas/SE NM,
allowing for another day of widespread triple-digit temps across
the area. At the sfc, a weak front/boundary lies across the S.
Plains, w/return flow to the south. A dense cu field has developed
omtns, and upslope flow this afternoon/evening will focus isolated
chances of convection there.

Monday, thicknesses begin decreasing, and should drop temps area-
wide by about a category Monday and Tuesday afternoons.
Aforementioned front may make it into SE NM and the Western Low
Rolling Plains, and be the focus of isolated convection along a
zone of low lvl convergence as depicted by the 12Z NAM. Wednesday,
strong return flow resumes as a leeside sfc trough drifts south
into the area. Models show a spike in thicknesses across the area,
and afternoon temps may reach the century mark one more time for
this forecast.

Late Wednesday night/Thursday morning, models bring a stronger
cold front thru the region. Front may hang up during the day a
little, but models take it to the Rio Grande by 12Z Friday. Along
w/isolated-slight chances of rain w/the front, temps Thu afternoon
should top out right around normal, and below-normal Friday,
w/models forecasting H85 temps ranging near 20C NE to under 30C
SW. Long-range models are similar on temps, but much will also
depend on extent of cloud cover/rain. Temps begin coming back up
Saturday, but models hint at another front Saturday night, for
below-normal temps again Sunday.

During this time, models really moisten the column up, w/PWATs
increasing to 1.5-2" by Saturday. The GFS raises PWATs at KMAF to
around 1.9" Saturday...about 3 std devs above normal.  Thus, the
potential for heavy rainfall will be there over the weekend as
models bring disturbances thru the east side of the ridge. For
now, we`ll continue a low-POP shotgun approach, as this is too far
out to accurately hone in on triggers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  96  71  96  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  94  71  95  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                73  97  75  97  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  74  97  74  97  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           74  97  71  97  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  91  69  88  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   72  95  69  93  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   63  89  59  88  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  98  73  96  /   0  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  73  97  73  96  /   0  10  10  10
WINK TX                    74 100  74 100  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

12/44
358
FXUS64 KMAF 271708
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1208 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under mostly clear
skies. Winds will generally be east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph
with some gusts this afternoon and early this evening.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Southeast winds will become somewhat
gusty this afternoon, at all but CNM and maybe even HOB, then
diminish after sunset.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge responsible for the hot wx and remains the dominate wx
feature.  This ridge was centered from the 4 corners region eastward
across the Red River to LA.  The ridge will shift westward over the
next couple of days with the axis extending up across the Rockies as
an upper trough deepens over the Eastern U.S.   As the center of
this ridge moves westward... NW flow aloft will allow disturbances
to move into the region late in the week helping rain chances.

Unseasonably hot temps will continue across the region today...
especially over the Pecos and Rio Grande valleys.  850mb temps
across the Permian Basin will be very warm again today around 28C/82F
and slowly cool next couple of days.  Expect another day of 100
degree temps for most of the area.  Yesterday Dryden hit 105 degrees
and a station in the Big Bend hit 105 too.  Will extend the heat
advisory for Brewster and Terrell counties along the Rio Grande
another day.  The Presidio valley will be close to advisory
conditions but will not include at this time.  Nighttime temps will
continue to be very warm as dewpts in the 50s and 60s along with a
steady nocturnal wind keep temps up.  At midnight it was still 89
degrees in Presidio and 92 at Dryden.

Models have been showing a boundary moving down into the northern
CWA Monday but this may actually be a weak front as it has a
thermal/pressure gradient with it.  This feature lifts northward
Tuesday.  On Thursday it appears another front will move into the
area with models trying to push it all the way to Mexico.  This will
increase rain chances and give a break from the recent hot wx.
Latest MEX long range guidance calling for highs in the 80s now
Thursday and Friday... will stay above that for now.

Even with the ridge did have more afternoon clouds Saturday south of
the Pecos river and should see these again this afternoon.  Had a
few late afternoon storms skirt the Big Bend yesterday and model qpf
shows could have that again today so have expanded the isold pops
from the Davis Mtns south to the Rio Grande and northward to GDP.
On Monday models develop rain along the boundary/front across the
Permian Basin during the afternoon and evening... and to a lesser
extent on Tuesday.  Could be a few storms over the higher elevations
on Wednesday but a better shot of rain begins Thursday and Friday
when the front returns and may have some upper support.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  95  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  75  94  74  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               102  72  99  71  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 104  77 101  75  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          101  74  99  73  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          94  69  92  68  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                  100  71  95  70  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   92  64  90  60  /  20  20  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  74  98  73  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                 102  74  98  73  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                   104  73 102  72  /  10   0  10  10




.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

27/72
904
FXUS64 KMAF 271111
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
611 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Southeast winds will become somewhat
gusty this afternoon, at all but CNM and maybe even HOB, then
diminish after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge responsible for the hot wx and remains the dominate wx
feature.  This ridge was centered from the 4 corners region eastward
across the Red River to LA.  The ridge will shift westward over the
next couple of days with the axis extending up across the Rockies as
an upper trough deepens over the Eastern U.S.   As the center of
this ridge moves westward... NW flow aloft will allow disturbances
to move into the region late in the week helping rain chances.

Unseasonably hot temps will continue across the region today...
especially over the Pecos and Rio Grande valleys.  850mb temps
across the Permian Basin will be very warm again today around 28C/82F
and slowly cool next couple of days.  Expect another day of 100
degree temps for most of the area.  Yesterday Dryden hit 105 degrees
and a station in the Big Bend hit 105 too.  Will extend the heat
advisory for Brewster and Terrell counties along the Rio Grande
another day.  The Presidio valley will be close to advisory
conditions but will not include at this time.  Nighttime temps will
continue to be very warm as dewpts in the 50s and 60s along with a
steady nocturnal wind keep temps up.  At midnight it was still 89
degrees in Presidio and 92 at Dryden.

Models have been showing a boundary moving down into the northern
CWA Monday but this may actually be a weak front as it has a
thermal/pressure gradient with it.  This feature lifts northward
Tuesday.  On Thursday it appears another front will move into the
area with models trying to push it all the way to Mexico.  This will
increase rain chances and give a break from the recent hot wx.
Latest MEX long range guidance calling for highs in the 80s now
Thursday and Friday... will stay above that for now.

Even with the ridge did have more afternoon clouds Saturday south of
the Pecos river and should see these again this afternoon.  Had a
few late afternoon storms skirt the Big Bend yesterday and model qpf
shows could have that again today so have expanded the isold pops
from the Davis Mtns south to the Rio Grande and northward to GDP.
On Monday models develop rain along the boundary/front across the
Permian Basin during the afternoon and evening... and to a lesser
extent on Tuesday.  Could be a few storms over the higher elevations
on Wednesday but a better shot of rain begins Thursday and Friday
when the front returns and may have some upper support.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

27
306
FXUS64 KMAF 270904
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
404 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge responsible for the hot wx and remains the dominate wx
feature.  This ridge was centered from the 4 corners region eastward
across the Red River to LA.  The ridge will shift westward over the
next couple of days with the axis extending up across the Rockies as
an upper trough deepens over the Eastern U.S.   As the center of
this ridge moves westward... NW flow aloft will allow disturbances
to move into the region late in the week helping rain chances.

Unseasonably hot temps will continue across the region today...
especially over the Pecos and Rio Grande valleys.  850mb temps
across the Permian Basin will be very warm again today around 28C/82F
and slowly cool next couple of days.  Expect another day of 100
degree temps for most of the area.  Yesterday Dryden hit 105 degrees
and a station in the Big Bend hit 105 too.  Will extend the heat
advisory for Brewster and Terrell counties along the Rio Grande
another day.  The Presidio valley will be close to advisory
conditions but will not include at this time.  Nighttime temps will
continue to be very warm as dewpts in the 50s and 60s along with a
steady nocturnal wind keep temps up.  At midnight it was still 89
degrees in Presidio and 92 at Dryden.

Models have been showing a boundary moving down into the northern
CWA Monday but this may actually be a weak front as it has a
thermal/pressure gradient with it.  This feature lifts northward
Tuesday.  On Thursday it appears another front will move into the
area with models trying to push it all the way to Mexico.  This will
increase rain chances and give a break from the recent hot wx.
Latest MEX long range guidance calling for highs in the 80s now
Thursday and Friday... will stay above that for now.

Even with the ridge did have more afternoon clouds Saturday south of
the Pecos river and should see these again this afternoon.  Had a
few late afternoon storms skirt the Big Bend yesterday and model qpf
shows could have that again today so have expanded the isold pops
from the Davis Mtns south to the Rio Grande and northward to GDP.
On Monday models develop rain along the boundary/front across the
Permian Basin during the afternoon and evening... and to a lesser
extent on Tuesday.  Could be a few storms over the higher elevations
on Wednesday but a better shot of rain begins Thursday and Friday
when the front returns and may have some upper support.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  95  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  75  94  74  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               102  72  99  71  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 104  77 101  75  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          101  74  99  73  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          94  69  92  68  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                  100  71  95  70  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   92  64  90  60  /  20  20  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  74  98  73  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                 102  74  98  73  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                   104  73 102  72  /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

27/72
180
FXUS64 KMAF 270507
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Currently have southeast winds
generally 10-12kt sustained, although slightly stronger (15kt) at
PEQ and FST where gusts persist as well. These gusts are expected to
diminish over the next few hours then wind speeds pick up once again
Sunday afternoon at all but CNM.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Ely mid level flow continues across the area (12Z MAF sounding)
with subtropical ridge centered INVOF central NM. Only shot for
isold shra/tsra today is in/around the Davis Mtns with water
showing drying/subsidence across the CWFA. As early as Sun PM the
ridge will start build to the nw. 85h temps will still be warm
U20s-N30C and so high temps will still be around 100. NAM12 is
again optimistically developing precip from Davis-GDP Mtns Sun PM.
Grids already have isold PoPs and will make no change to that. 85h
temps do trend down about 1C Mon, but 5h heights of 595 dam
indicate it will still be hot. A surface boundary still looks to
straddle the nrn CWFA Mon PM and may serve as a focus for tstms
for the nrn tier. NAM12 continues with the "wettest" trend among
the models. Dwpnts will be hier in wake of boundary and instability
is better there too. This with daytime may result in tstms INVOF
boundary. Needless to say boundary position will be final determinant.
We still have isold/slght chc PoPs across the far n and will make
little change for now. Tue there is a shrtwv trof in the nw flow
however NAM12 is outlier being farther s across the S Plains. As
such it develops precip farthest s. There is a general consensus
that a nw-se axis of precip that is favored and it catches n-ne
CWFA. Only changes that we will make is to bring isold PoPS just
a little father s. 85h temps will have cooled to N25C across PB,
still U20S C across the sw-w. A broad sfc low will develop SE-E
NM Wed and a low level thermal ridge will build along the sfc trof
axis, thus hotter on Wed. ECMWF continues to be quickest with
fropa Thur. A front and nw mid level flow should be a good combo
for precip, but timing issues are yet resolved. Will trend PoPs up
some and farther s Thur-Fri. The wetter 00Z/12Z GFS make more sense
than drier ECMWF as the nw flow aloft persist, but will be dependent
on theta-e ridge, shrtwv trof/s, etc.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

27
903
FXUS64 KMAF 262235
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
535 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
No aviation problems expected as VFR conditions continue at all
terminals through Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Ely mid level flow continues across the area (12Z MAF sounding)
with subtropical ridge centered INVOF central NM. Only shot for
isold shra/tsra today is in/around the Davis Mtns with water
showing drying/subsidence across the CWFA. As early as Sun PM the
ridge will start build to the nw. 85h temps will still be warm
U20s-N30C and so high temps will still be around 100. NAM12 is
again optimistically developing precip from Davis-GDP Mtns Sun PM.
Grids already have isold PoPs and will make no change to that. 85h
temps do trend down about 1C Mon, but 5h heights of 595 dam
indicate it will still be hot. A surface boundary still looks to
straddle the nrn CWFA Mon PM and may serve as a focus for tstms
for the nrn tier. NAM12 continues with the "wettest" trend among
the models. Dwpnts will be hier in wake of boundary and instability
is better there too. This with daytime may result in tstms INVOF
boundary. Needless to say boundary position will be final determinant.
We still have isold/slght chc PoPs across the far n and will make
little change for now. Tue there is a shrtwv trof in the nw flow
however NAM12 is outlier being farther s across the S Plains. As
such it develops precip farthest s. There is a general consensus
that a nw-se axis of precip that is favored and it catches n-ne
CWFA. Only changes that we will make is to bring isold PoPS just
a little father s. 85h temps will have cooled to N25C across PB,
still U20S C across the sw-w. A broad sfc low will develop SE-E
NM Wed and a low level thermal ridge will build along the sfc trof
axis, thus hotter on Wed. ECMWF continues to be quickest with
fropa Thur. A front and nw mid level flow should be a good combo
for precip, but timing issues are yet resolved. Will trend PoPs up
some and farther s Thur-Fri. The wetter 00Z/12Z GFS make more sense
than drier ECMWF as the nw flow aloft persist, but will be dependent
on theta-e ridge, shrtwv trof/s, etc.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

29
889
FXUS64 KMAF 261925
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
225 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Ely mid level flow continues across the area (12Z MAF sounding)
with subtropical ridge centered INVOF central NM. Only shot for
isold shra/tsra today is in/around the Davis Mtns with water
showing drying/subsidence across the CWFA. As early as Sun PM the
ridge will start build to the nw. 85h temps will still be warm
U20s-N30C and so high temps will still be around 100. NAM12 is
again optimistically developing precip from Davis-GDP Mtns Sun PM.
Grids already have isold PoPs and will make no change to that. 85h
temps do trend down about 1C Mon, but 5h heights of 595 dam
indicate it will still be hot. A surface boundary still looks to
straddle the nrn CWFA Mon PM and may serve as a focus for tstms
for the nrn tier. NAM12 continues with the "wettest" trend among
the models. Dwpnts will be hier in wake of boundary and instability
is better there too. This with daytime may result in tstms INVOF
boundary. Needless to say boundary position will be final determinant.
We still have isold/slght chc PoPs across the far n and will make
little change for now. Tue there is a shrtwv trof in the nw flow
however NAM12 is outlier being farther s across the S Plains. As
such it develops precip farthest s. There is a general consensus
that a nw-se axis of precip that is favored and it catches n-ne
CWFA. Only changes that we will make is to bring isold PoPS just
a little father s. 85h temps will have cooled to N25C across PB,
still U20S C across the sw-w. A broad sfc low will develop SE-E
NM Wed and a low level thermal ridge will build along the sfc trof
axis, thus hotter on Wed. ECMWF continues to be quickest with
fropa Thur. A front and nw mid level flow should be a good combo
for precip, but timing issues are yet resolved. Will trend PoPs up
some and farther s Thur-Fri. The wetter 00Z/12Z GFS make more sense
than drier ECMWF as the nw flow aloft persist, but will be dependent
on theta-e ridge, shrtwv trof/s, etc.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  97  73  93  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              76 101  75  92  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                70 100  74  97  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77 104  77 100  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  98  72  97  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   70  97  70  93  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   62  90  63  87  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  99  73  96  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  76  98  74  96  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    73 100  73  98  /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.

&&

$$
515
FXUS64 KMAF 261550
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1050 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours under an upper ridge
centered north of the region.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over NM... TX... and OK this morning will shift
west as an upper trough digs over the eastern part of the country.
Ridge does not actually move away from the area as 594 heights hang
around next several days but the ridge axis builds northward along the
Rockies into Canada.  Overall expect warm temperatures to continue
next several days with temps decreasing late next week as heights
fall.

Will be another hot day today with subsidence from the ridge and
near unrestricted insolation pushing temps to near 100.  Should see
a slight increase in 850mb temps through the weekend but guidance
actually wants to cool temps a couple degrees Sunday.   The Heat
Advisory in effect for Brewster and Terrell counties looks
marginal... Sanderson should not reach needed criteria however could
see temps near 105 degrees right along the Rio Grande so will leave
in effect for today and tonight.  Expect above normal temperatures to
continue through Monday with near normal readings by Tuesday.
Overnight temps have been slow to fall off this morning as wind
stayed up.  Lows for the past week across the Permian Basin have not
been able to drop below the 70s.

Will have possibility of a few storm over the Davis Mtns this
afternoon and Sunday afternoon.  However models show a weak boundary
sagging into northern CWA Monday staying there Tuesday before
lifting back to the north.  Boundary gets forced back into the area
by Friday.  It appears this boundary will be dependent on convection
to the north to push it into the region.  This boundary may also
become a focus for storm development.  Will keep low pops mainly
north each day.  Increased cloud cover will also help lower temps
toward next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

44
279
FXUS64 KMAF 261052
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
552 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all TAF sites. Southeast winds around 10-12kt
sustained through tonight with some higher gusts at MAF and
FST this afternoon and evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over NM... TX... and OK this morning will shift
west as an upper trough digs over the eastern part of the country.
Ridge does not actually move away from the area as 594 heights hang
around next several days but the ridge axis builds northward along the
Rockies into Canada.  Overall expect warm temperatures to continue
next several days with temps decreasing late next week as heights
fall.

Will be another hot day today with subsidence from the ridge and
near unrestricted insolation pushing temps to near 100.  Should see
a slight increase in 850mb temps through the weekend but guidance
actually wants to cool temps a couple degrees Sunday.   The Heat
Advisory in effect for Brewster and Terrell counties looks
marginal... Sanderson should not reach needed criteria however could
see temps near 105 degrees right along the Rio Grande so will leave
in effect for today and tonight.  Expect above normal temperatures to
continue through Monday with near normal readings by Tuesday.
Overnight temps have been slow to fall off this morning as wind
stayed up.  Lows for the past week across the Permian Basin have not
been able to drop below the 70s.

Will have possibility of a few storm over the Davis Mtns this
afternoon and Sunday afternoon.  However models show a weak boundary
sagging into northern CWA Monday staying there Tuesday before
lifting back to the north.  Boundary gets forced back into the area
by Friday.  It appears this boundary will be dependent on convection
to the north to push it into the region.  This boundary may also
become a focus for storm development.  Will keep low pops mainly
north each day.  Increased cloud cover will also help lower temps
toward next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

27
957
FXUS64 KMAF 260824
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
324 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over NM... TX... and OK this morning will shift
west as an upper trough digs over the eastern part of the country.
Ridge does not actually move away from the area as 594 heights hang
around next several days but the ridge axis builds northward along the
Rockies into Canada.  Overall expect warm temperatures to continue
next several days with temps decreasing late next week as heights
fall.

Will be another hot day today with subsidence from the ridge and
near unrestricted insolation pushing temps to near 100.  Should see
a slight increase in 850mb temps through the weekend but guidance
actually wants to cool temps a couple degrees Sunday.   The Heat
Advisory in effect for Brewster and Terrell counties looks
marginal... Sanderson should not reach needed criteria however could
see temps near 105 degrees right along the Rio Grande so will leave
in effect for today and tonight.  Expect above normal temperatures to
continue through Monday with near normal readings by Tuesday.
Overnight temps have been slow to fall off this morning as wind
stayed up.  Lows for the past week across the Permian Basin have not
been able to drop below the 70s.

Will have possibility of a few storm over the Davis Mtns this
afternoon and Sunday afternoon.  However models show a weak boundary
sagging into northern CWA Monday staying there Tuesday before
lifting back to the north.  Boundary gets forced back into the area
by Friday.  It appears this boundary will be dependent on convection
to the north to push it into the region.  This boundary may also
become a focus for storm development.  Will keep low pops mainly
north each day.  Increased cloud cover will also help lower temps
toward next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  72  99  71  /   0  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  75 100  74  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM               102  71 100  72  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  76 102  75  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          100  73  97  72  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          94  70  92  69  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   99  69  98  69  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   93  62  91  63  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   100  73  99  72  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                 100  73  98  72  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                   102  74  99  73  /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

27/72
086
FXUS64 KMAF 260504
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1204 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Southeast winds around 10-12kt
sustained through Saturday night with some higher gusts at MAF and
FST during the afternoon hours.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The subtropical ridge extends w-e from NM into OK leaving MAF`s CWFA
in ely mid level flow aloft. Water vapor reveals absence of
identifiable shrtwv trof and with lack of a sfc boundary there is
little opportunity for shra/tsra today. Sat-Sun there will be
little sensible wx change, just hot. 85h temps from around 28C
across the PB to 31C across SE NM will continue to support high
temps from the U90s to L100s. Hottest along parts of the Rio
Grande, especially from Big Bend to Terrell Co where high temps
are right at 105 and lows in the mid/upper 70s, thus continuation
of heat advisory there. Amplification of mid level ridge farther
nw and ern U.S. trof signal a pattern transition to NW flow aloft
by Tue/Wed. There`s a good chance that a weak boundary will be
across the nrn CWFA Monday. Mid level theta-e ridge, hier sfc
mstr, and better SB instability will be n of the boundary.
Forecast already has low probability PoPs across the n and this
still looks good based on latest data. Shrtwv trof within NW Wed
along with convection will push a boundary into W TX plains, but
staying n of CWFA until Thur. Based on boundary and NW flow
Thur/Fri would seem to most favored days for precip at this point.
Still too far out to commit to any hier PoPs than are in the
forecast. Higher likelihood is that temps will cool off to below
normal Thur/Fr.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

27
243
FXUS64 KMAF 252332
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
632 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions at all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The subtropical ridge extends w-e from NM into OK leaving MAF`s CWFA
in ely mid level flow aloft. Water vapor reveals absence of
identifiable shrtwv trof and with lack of a sfc boundary there is
little opportunity for shra/tsra today. Sat-Sun there will be
little sensible wx change, just hot. 85h temps from around 28C
across the PB to 31C across SE NM will continue to support high
temps from the U90s to L100s. Hottest along parts of the Rio
Grande, especially from Big Bend to Terrell Co where high temps
are right at 105 and lows in the mid/upper 70s, thus continuation
of heat advisory there. Amplification of mid level ridge farther
nw and ern U.S. trof signal a pattern transition to NW flow aloft
by Tue/Wed. There`s a good chance that a weak boundary will be
across the nrn CWFA Monday. Mid level theta-e ridge, hier sfc
mstr, and better SB instability will be n of the boundary.
Forecast already has low probability PoPs across the n and this
still looks good based on latest data. Shrtwv trof within NW Wed
along with convection will push a boundary into W TX plains, but
staying n of CWFA until Thur. Based on boundary and NW flow
Thur/Fri would seem to most favored days for precip at this point.
Still too far out to commit to any hier PoPs than are in the
forecast. Higher likelihood is that temps will cool off to below
normal Thur/Fr.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

29
277
FXUS64 KMAF 251913
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
213 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The subtropical ridge extends w-e from NM into OK leaving MAF`s CWFA
in ely mid level flow aloft. Water vapor reveals absence of
identifiable shrtwv trof and with lack of a sfc boundary there is
little opportunity for shra/tsra today. Sat-Sun there will be
little sensible wx change, just hot. 85h temps from around 28C
across the PB to 31C across SE NM will continue to support high
temps from the U90s to L100s. Hottest along parts of the Rio
Grande, especially from Big Bend to Terrell Co where high temps
are right at 105 and lows in the mid/upper 70s, thus continuation
of heat advisory there. Amplification of mid level ridge farther
nw and ern U.S. trof signal a pattern transition to NW flow aloft
by Tue/Wed. There`s a good chance that a weak boundary will be
across the nrn CWFA Monday. Mid level theta-e ridge, hier sfc
mstr, and better SB instability will be n of the boundary.
Forecast already has low probability PoPs across the n and this
still looks good based on latest data. Shrtwv trof within NW Wed
along with convection will push a boundary into W TX plains, but
staying n of CWFA until Thur. Based on boundary and NW flow
Thur/Fri would seem to most favored days for precip at this point.
Still too far out to commit to any hier PoPs than are in the
forecast. Higher likelihood is that temps will cool off to below
normal Thur/Fr.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73 100  72 100  /   0   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              77 101  75 100  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                70 101  72 100  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  78 104  77 103  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           74  97  73  97  /   0  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  91  68  92  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   69  98  69  97  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   60  91  61  91  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  99  73  99  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  75  99  73  98  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    74 100  74  99  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.

&&

$$
167
FXUS64 KMAF 251517
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1017 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue next 24 hours, under an upper ridge
centered north of the region. A few cu will be possible SE NM,
w/bases 7-9 kft agl.  Return flow will continue, w/no convection expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Not much change from the previous forecast with hot and dry
conditions expected through the weekend for most areas, as we remain
under the influence of the persistent upper ridge. Above normal
temperatures continue for the next several days as the 850mb ridge
strengthens just west of the CWA. MOS was too cool once again
yesterday so will continue to forecast temps a degree or two warmer
than guidance. In general, afternoon highs will range from the upper
90s to at or just above 100. The exceptions being the higher terrain
where slightly cooler temperatures (upper 80s-low 90s) can be
expected and south along the Rio Grande River Valley, where temps as
high as 105-106 will be possible. With such warm overnight
lows expected along the Rio Grande Valley through the
weekend, went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory for these locations
in Brewster and Terrell counties. Saw a few thunderstorms down south
near the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions yesterday
afternoon/evening but for today, think any activity will remain to
the south of the FA.

The upper ridge will begin to shift back west Sunday/Monday as an
strong upper low digs into the Great Lakes region. As a result,
850mb temps will begin to cool across the region and afternoon highs
will decrease to more normal values through the beginning of next
week. The previously mentioned ua low will send a cold front south,
reaching northeast zones Monday or Tuesday. Model guidance keeps
greatest precip chances to the northeast of the CWA however
convection along the front could push it further south into the
area. For now, will keep inherited mention of thunderstorm chances
across northern zones Monday night and Tuesday. Any lingering
boundaries (whether it be the front or outflow boundaries from
Tuesday convection) could also generate thunderstorms across
northern portions into Wednesday. Another cold front could continue
rain chances and cool temperatures further later in the week but
won`t get too excited just yet.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

44
347
FXUS64 KMAF 251030
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
530 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Not much change from the previous forecast with hot and dry
conditions expected through the weekend for most areas, as we remain
under the influence of the persistent upper ridge. Above normal
temperatures continue for the next several days as the 850mb ridge
strengthens just west of the CWA. MOS was too cool once again
yesterday so will continue to forecast temps a degree or two warmer
than guidance. In general, afternoon highs will range from the upper
90s to at or just above 100. The exceptions being the higher terrain
where slightly cooler temperatures (upper 80s-low 90s) can be
expected and south along the Rio Grande River Valley, where temps as
high as 105-106 will be possible. With such warm overnight
lows expected along the Rio Grande Valley through the
weekend, went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory for these locations
in Brewster and Terrell counties. Saw a few thunderstorms down south
near the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions yesterday
afternoon/evening but for today, think any activity will remain to
the south of the FA.

The upper ridge will begin to shift back west Sunday/Monday as an
strong upper low digs into the Great Lakes region. As a result,
850mb temps will begin to cool across the region and afternoon highs
will decrease to more normal values through the beginning of next
week. The previously mentioned ua low will send a cold front south,
reaching northeast zones Monday or Tuesday. Model guidance keeps
greatest precip chances to the northeast of the CWA however
convection along the front could push it further south into the
area. For now, will keep inherited mention of thunderstorm chances
across northern zones Monday night and Tuesday. Any lingering
boundaries (whether it be the front or outflow boundaries from
Tuesday convection) could also generate thunderstorms across
northern portions into Wednesday. Another cold front could continue
rain chances and cool temperatures further later in the week but
won`t get too excited just yet.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

44
119
FXUS64 KMAF 250843
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
343 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Not much change from the previous forecast with hot and dry
conditions expected through the weekend for most areas, as we remain
under the influence of the persistent upper ridge. Above normal
temperatures continue for the next several days as the 850mb ridge
strengthens just west of the CWA. MOS was too cool once again
yesterday so will continue to forecast temps a degree or two warmer
than guidance. In general, afternoon highs will range from the upper
90s to at or just above 100. The exceptions being the higher terrain
where slightly cooler temperatures (upper 80s-low 90s) can be
expected and south along the Rio Grande River Valley, where temps as
high as 105-106 will be possible. With such warm overnight
lows expected along the Rio Grande Valley through the
weekend, went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory for these locations
in Brewster and Terrell counties. Saw a few thunderstorms down south
near the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions yesterday
afternoon/evening but for today, think any activity will remain to
the south of the FA.

The upper ridge will begin to shift back west Sunday/Monday as an
strong upper low digs into the Great Lakes region. As a result,
850mb temps will begin to cool across the region and afternoon highs
will decrease to more normal values through the beginning of next
week. The previously mentioned ua low will send a cold front south,
reaching northeast zones Monday or Tuesday. Model guidance keeps
greatest precip chances to the northeast of the CWA however
convection along the front could push it further south into the
area. For now, will keep inherited mention of thunderstorm chances
across northern zones Monday night and Tuesday. Any lingering
boundaries (whether it be the front or outflow boundaries from
Tuesday convection) could also generate thunderstorms across
northern portions into Wednesday. Another cold front could continue
rain chances and cool temperatures further later in the week but
won`t get too excited just yet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  72 100  73  /  10   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX             102  74 102  74  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               101  70 102  72  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 103  77 103  78  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           99  73  99  73  /  10   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          90  68  92  69  /   0  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   98  69  98  69  /  10   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   89  59  91  63  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   100  74 100  73  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  99  75  99  74  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                   103  75 103  75  /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

44/27
529
FXUS64 KMAF 250517
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1217 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
No major aviation concerns through the TAF period. VFR conditions
will persist at all area terminals with winds predominantly from the
S/SE around 10 kts.

Huffman

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

13
625
FXUS64 KMAF 242337
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
637 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions to continue at all terminals through Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level disturbance across south Texas will track toward
the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos this evening and bring those
areas a slight chance of thunderstorms this evening.

Beyond this evening the weather will be quiet across west Texas
and southeast New Mexico Friday through Sunday due to a healthy
upper level ridge centered across the southern Rockies and
southern High Plains. Temperatures will continue to be above
normal in this pattern through the weekend. By late Sunday a
developing upper level trough across the Great Lakes and northeast
states will send a cold front south toward the forecast area. At
this time the ECMWF guidance is most bullish pushing the front
into the area with some precipitation. This could be reasonable
given the amount of convection that the consensus guidance is
developing along and behind the front next week. For now did not
yet want to jump all in on the ECMWF scenario but did increase
pops especially across the north Monday through Thursday and did
mention isolated thunderstorms in a few locations in the north in
a few of the periods. Later shifts will obviously need to monitor.

Trended high temperatures next week close to climatological
normals with the possibility of the front moving in.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29
219
FXUS64 KMAF 241945
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
245 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level disturbance across south Texas will track toward
the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos this evening and bring those
areas a slight chance of thunderstorms this evening.

Beyond this evening the weather will be quiet across west Texas
and southeast New Mexico Friday through Sunday due to a healthy
upper level ridge centered across the southern Rockies and
southern High Plains. Temperatures will continue to be above
normal in this pattern through the weekend. By late Sunday a
developing upper level trough across the Great Lakes and northeast
states will send a cold front south toward the forecast area. At
this time the ECMWF guidance is most bullish pushing the front
into the area with some precipitation. This could be reasonable
given the amount of convection that the consensus guidance is
developing along and behind the front next week. For now did not
yet want to jump all in on the ECMWF scenario but did increase
pops especially across the north Monday through Thursday and did
mention isolated thunderstorms in a few locations in the north in
a few of the periods. Later shifts will obviously need to monitor.

Trended high temperatures next week close to climatological
normals with the possibility of the front moving in.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  72 100  71  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             101  73 101  72  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                99  72 101  69  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  78 102  77  /  20  20  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          90  68  91  69  /  10  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   96  69  99  68  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   89  61  90  60  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73 100  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  74  99  74  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   101  74 103  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/12
338
FXUS64 KMAF 241628
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1128 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, under upper-level
ridging over NE NM. Sfc winds will veer from E to S. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field by or shortly after
issuance, w/bases 7-10 kft agl.  No convection expected.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014/

The stubborn upper ridge remains parked over southwest and central
portions of the CONUS, via WV satellite this morning. This ridge
will remain the dominate weather feature during this forecast
package, keeping conditions generally hot and dry for most areas.

Above normal temperatures continue today under the influence of the
upper ridge with highs generally in the upper 90s to near 100 most
places. A shortwave, moving around the eastern edge of the upper
ridge looks to move over southern portions of the region today. This
wave could provide enough upper level forcing for ascent to help
generate at least isolated convection across the Big Bend region for
this afternoon and evening, especially if dewpoints remain in the
50s. The GFS shows this feature lingering across the south into
Friday and possibly Saturday while the NAM keeps greatest forcing
for ascent further south. Will side with the NAM and keep silent
PoPs beyond this evening.

The center of the upper ridge will shift slightly southeastward
tonight and tomorrow, allowing the intensifying 850mb thermal ridge
to inch further east into the FA Friday and Saturday. Based on 850mb
temps of 29-32C by Saturday, think MOS is too cool and went a degree
or two warmer than guidance through Saturday. Expect highs in the
100-103 degree range to start the weekend with many locations along
the Pecos and Rio Grande River Valleys likely reaching 105-106. Will
continue to see a drying trend over the next few days so heat index
values should remain relatively close to the ambient temperatures
and a Heat Advisory will not be necessary. With the upper ridge
centered just north of the region through the weekend, think chances
for rain will be slim to none so will keep the forecast dry through
the beginning of next week.

The upper ridge will get a shove back to the west Sunday/Monday
as an upper low digs through the Great Lakes region, establishing
weak northerly flow aloft. This would allow the 850mb thermal
ridge to move back west and give us a little relief from the heat
beginning Sunday, although highs will still be above normal. Could
also see the return of rain chances by mid week with the
possibility of a front approaching NE zones. For now, will keep
the extended dry.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
070
FXUS64 KMAF 241115
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
615 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours at all
southeast New Mexico and West Texas TAF sites. Any thunderstorms
this afternoon or evening should stay south of all TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014/

The stubborn upper ridge remains parked over southwest and central
portions of the CONUS, via WV satellite this morning. This ridge
will remain the dominate weather feature during this forecast
package, keeping conditions generally hot and dry for most areas.

Above normal temperatures continue today under the influence of the
upper ridge with highs generally in the upper 90s to near 100 most
places. A shortwave, moving around the eastern edge of the upper
ridge looks to move over southern portions of the region today. This
wave could provide enough upper level forcing for ascent to help
generate at least isolated convection across the Big Bend region for
this afternoon and evening, especially if dewpoints remain in the
50s. The GFS shows this feature lingering across the south into
Friday and possibly Saturday while the NAM keeps greatest forcing
for ascent further south. Will side with the NAM and keep silent
PoPs beyond this evening.

The center of the upper ridge will shift slightly southeastward
tonight and tomorrow, allowing the intensifying 850mb thermal ridge
to inch further east into the FA Friday and Saturday. Based on 850mb
temps of 29-32C by Saturday, think MOS is too cool and went a degree
or two warmer than guidance through Saturday. Expect highs in the
100-103 degree range to start the weekend with many locations along
the Pecos and Rio Grande River Valleys likely reaching 105-106. Will
continue to see a drying trend over the next few days so heat index
values should remain relatively close to the ambient temperatures
and a Heat Advisory will not be necessary. With the upper ridge
centered just north of the region through the weekend, think chances
for rain will be slim to none so will keep the forecast dry through
the beginning of next week.

The upper ridge will get a shove back to the west Sunday/Monday
as an upper low digs through the Great Lakes region, establishing
weak northerly flow aloft. This would allow the 850mb thermal
ridge to move back west and give us a little relief from the heat
beginning Sunday, although highs will still be above normal. Could
also see the return of rain chances by mid week with the
possibility of a front approaching NE zones. For now, will keep
the extended dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  72 100  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             101  73 101  73  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                99  72 101  71  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  76 102  75  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          90  68  91  69  /  10  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   96  69  99  69  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   89  61  90  62  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73 100  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  74  99  75  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   101  74 103  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/27
024
FXUS64 KMAF 240859
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
359 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The stubborn upper ridge remains parked over southwest and central
portions of the CONUS, via WV satellite this morning. This ridge
will remain the dominate weather feature during this forecast
package, keeping conditions generally hot and dry for most areas.

Above normal temperatures continue today under the influence of the
upper ridge with highs generally in the upper 90s to near 100 most
places. A shortwave, moving around the eastern edge of the upper
ridge looks to move over southern portions of the region today. This
wave could provide enough upper level forcing for ascent to help
generate at least isolated convection across the Big Bend region for
this afternoon and evening, especially if dewpoints remain in the
50s. The GFS shows this feature lingering across the south into
Friday and possibly Saturday while the NAM keeps greatest forcing
for ascent further south. Will side with the NAM and keep silent
PoPs beyond this evening.

The center of the upper ridge will shift slightly southeastward
tonight and tomorrow, allowing the intensifying 850mb thermal ridge
to inch further east into the FA Friday and Saturday. Based on 850mb
temps of 29-32C by Saturday, think MOS is too cool and went a degree
or two warmer than guidance through Saturday. Expect highs in the
100-103 degree range to start the weekend with many locations along
the Pecos and Rio Grande River Valleys likely reaching 105-106. Will
continue to see a drying trend over the next few days so heat index
values should remain relatively close to the ambient temperatures
and a Heat Advisory will not be necessary. With the upper ridge
centered just north of the region through the weekend, think chances
for rain will be slim to none so will keep the forecast dry through
the beginning of next week.

The upper ridge will get a shove back to the west Sunday/Monday
as an upper low digs through the Great Lakes region, establishing
weak northerly flow aloft. This would allow the 850mb thermal
ridge to move back west and give us a little relief from the heat
beginning Sunday, although highs will still be above normal. Could
also see the return of rain chances by mid week with the
possibility of a front approaching NE zones. For now, will keep
the extended dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  72 100  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             101  73 101  73  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                99  72 101  71  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  76 102  75  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          90  68  91  69  /  10  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   96  69  99  69  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   89  61  90  62  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73 100  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  74  99  75  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   101  74 103  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/27
829
FXUS64 KMAF 240507
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours at all
southeast New Mexico and West Texas TAF sites.  Thunderstorms may
form this afternoon, but should stay south of said TAF sites.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014/

As of 2:15 PM CDT Wednesday...Skies are partly cloudy across the
CWA. A strong ridge is centered over southern Colorado with drier
air filtering into the CWA...as dew pts are lower than yesterday.

The ridge will be the dominant feature in the CWA`s weather for
the remainder of the week...and through the weekend. The ridge
will sag south through the weekend as a series of systems move
across the northern tier of states. This will enable the thermal
ridge to edge further east Friday and Saturday. Temps will be
above normal on Thursday...but it will get even hotter Friday and
Saturday with widespread 100+ temps. Along the Rio Grande River
Valley and the Trans Pecos temps could be 105+. Dew pts will be
lower so overnight lows could drop below 75. However...it is
possible that a heat advisory could be needed for the Rio Grande
River Valley and the Trans Pecos Friday and Saturday.

The ridge will begin to retrograde west Sunday and into early next
week. The thermal ridge will be further west as well...so temps
will not be as hot...but will be near or a few degrees above
normal. The flow will become north or northwest early next
week...with the GFS bringing a front to the CWA early next week
whereas the ECMWF is slower. With the model differences have kept
the forecast dry through the extended.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
253
FXUS64 KMAF 232313
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
546 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will
mostly be out of the east to southeast with some gusts possible
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Wednesday...Skies are partly
cloudy across the CWA. A strong ridge is centered over southern
Colorado with drier air filtering into the CWA...as dew pts are
lower than yesterday.

The ridge will be the dominant feature in the CWA`s weather for
the remainder of the week...and through the weekend. The ridge
will sag south through the weekend as a series of systems move
across the northern tier of states. This will enable the thermal
ridge to edge further east Friday and Saturday. Temps will be
above normal on Thursday...but it will get even hotter Friday and
Saturday with widespread 100+ temps. Along the Rio Grande River
Valley and the Trans Pecos temps could be 105+. Dew pts will be
lower so overnight lows could drop below 75. However...it is
possible that a heat advisory could be needed for the Rio Grande
River Valley and the Trans Pecos Friday and Saturday.

The ridge will begin to retrograde west Sunday and into early next
week. The thermal ridge will be further west as well...so temps
will not be as hot...but will be near or a few degrees above
normal. The flow will become north or northwest early next
week...with the GFS bringing a front to the CWA early next week
whereas the ECMWF is slower. With the model differences have kept
the forecast dry through the extended.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
118
FXUS64 KMAF 231913
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
213 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Wednesday...Skies are partly
cloudy across the CWA. A strong ridge is centered over southern
Colorado with drier air filtering into the CWA...as dew pts are
lower than yesterday.

The ridge will be the dominant feature in the CWA`s weather for
the remainder of the week...and through the weekend. The ridge
will sag south through the weekend as a series of systems move
across the northern tier of states. This will enable the thermal
ridge to edge further east Friday and Saturday. Temps will be
above normal on Thursday...but it will get even hotter Friday and
Saturday with widespread 100+ temps. Along the Rio Grande River
Valley and the Trans Pecos temps could be 105+. Dew pts will be
lower so overnight lows could drop below 75. However...it is
possible that a heat advisory could be needed for the Rio Grande
River Valley and the Trans Pecos Friday and Saturday.

The ridge will begin to retrograde west Sunday and into early next
week. The thermal ridge will be further west as well...so temps
will not be as hot...but will be near or a few degrees above
normal. The flow will become north or northwest early next
week...with the GFS bringing a front to the CWA early next week
whereas the ECMWF is slower. With the model differences have kept
the forecast dry through the extended.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 98  72  98  72  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX             102  75 102  75  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM               101  72  99  72  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  78 103  77  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  73  97  73  /  10   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          89  67  89  68  /  10  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   97  69  96  69  /  10   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   89  62  89  61  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  72  99  74  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  98  73  97  75  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                   100  74 101  74  /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/33
516
FXUS64 KMAF 231714
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under mostly clear
skies. Winds will generally be east to southeast at 5 to 10 mph
through the period, with some gusts this afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across southeast New Mexico and West
Texas today and tonight while mid and high clouds decrease.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014/

A broad upper ridge continues to spin over much of the southwest
CONUS, as seen on WV satellite this morning. This ridge will remain
the dominate weather feature during this forecast package, keeping
conditions generally hot and dry through the weekend.

The hot temperatures continue today under the influence of the upper
ridge with highs just above normal most areas. Have extended the
current Heat Advisory through 15Z just to get through the warm
morning lows but high temperatures do not look to meet advisory
criteria today. Much of the same expected Thursday, if not a degree
or two warmer. The center of the upper ridge will shift slightly
southward Friday and the 850mb thermal ridge looks to intensify just
west of the CWA. By Saturday, afternoon high temperatures will range
from 99-103 most areas with locations along the Pecos and Rio Grande
River Valleys possibly reaching 106, which is well above normal
readings. The airmass will be relatively dry so heat index values
will be close to the ambient temperatures, which will be at or just
above Heat Advisory criteria so one may be needed Friday and
Saturday to highlight river valley areas. With the upper ridge
centered just north of the region through the weekend, generally
ENE flow aloft will hold mid level moisture to the west and a dry
forecast is expected through the beginning of next week.

The upper ridge will retrograde back west Sunday/Monday as an upper
low digs into the Great Lakes region around the longwave trough
over the eastern CONUS. This pattern change would result in north or
northwesterly flow aloft which would likely decrease temperatures
and increase rain chances. For now, will leave downward trending
temperatures but keep extended dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 98  71  99  73  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             102  75 101  74  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               101  71 101  72  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  76 103  75  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  73  98  73  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          89  68  91  68  /  10   0  10   0
HOBBS NM                   97  70  97  70  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   89  62  90  63  /  10   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73  99  74  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  98  74  98  75  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                   100  75 101  74  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/27

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