Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 010449

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1049 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

See 06Z aviation discussion below.


VFR conditions now expected to remain this TAF period. Upper level
clouds and northwest winds should keep low clouds and fog from
developing that was in the previous set of TAFs. A boundary
northeast of MAF will approach the terminal around 12Z and it is
possible that brief MVFR/IFR conditions could arrive with it, but
confidence not high enough to put in the TAFs.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015/


Latest WV imagery shows the upper trough moving thru Nebraska, on
its way to wreaking a little winter havoc on MN over the next couple
of days.  This leaves West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under
quiet, zonal flow aloft.  Sfc obs show a weak Pac front working thru
the region, and westerly flow in general has finally eroded the
stratus deck of the last few days.  This will allow a little
insolation to push afternoon temps into the 50s.  Temps overnight
continue to be tricky, w/models hinting at H85 stratus
redevelopment, especially over the SE zones.  This, as well as
forecast soundings, hint at colder temps NW.  With lack of
appreciable heating this afternoon, and no wind, evaporation has
been minimal, and soils remain saturated.  Given less cloud cover
expected overnight, fog looks to redevelop.  We`ll mention this in
the HWO, especially FZFG over the NW zones.

Otherwise, the rest of the week looks fairly benign, w/temperatures
remaining below normal.  Zonal flow aloft will give way to a
shortwave moving thru the area Wednesday, but this looks to do
little than knock afternoon temps down a couple of degrees.  Weak
upper ridging follows, and may push temps to near-normal Friday
afternoon.  There is still obvious disagreement among the models on
the cut-off low that follows the ridge over the weekend.  Best
chance for rain looks to be w/the ECMWF Saturday night, as it tracks
the trough furthest south.  Other models are further north and
differ in timing.







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