Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Current Version | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

541
FXUS64 KMAF 020130 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
830 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Convection has mostly dissipated within the flash flood watch area
across the Trans Pecos. Mesoscale models including RUC13/NAM12/TTU
WRF suggest that there will be little development thru 06Z.
Thereafter these mesoscale models redevelop convection across
Presidio and Culberson Counties. Looking closely at water vapor
there is a shrtwv trof that will be moving NW into and thru
Chihuahua, MX thus providing a source for forcing overnight. Sufficient
mstr is place with PWs of 1-2 standard deviations above normal and
steering flow is 10kts or less. As such we will give the watch the
overnight hours to "pan out". May make some minor adjustments to
PoPs before local 10 PM news, but the integrity of the fcst will
remain as is for the most part.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Currently have light easterly winds at
all terminals this evening with some light showers south of CNM
and in/near the Davis Mountains. Could see an increase in
SHRA/TSRA coverage tonight but best chances will be confined to
the far west, possibly affecting CNM, PEQ and FST at some point.
Not expecting any vis restrictions at this time therefore will not
include mention of SHRA in the TAF. However, will need to amend
if TSRA develops. Otherwise, light easterly winds will continue
through Saturday with best TSRA chances remaining to the west of
most terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An elongated and fractured upper ridge extending from SoCal to the
Mexican states of Chihuahua/Coahuila is aiding monsoonal moisture in
staying over Arizona and New Mexico, and over the western half or so
of the forecast area this afternoon.  A shortwave trough translating
slowly east/southeastward between the ua ridge and an ua trough over
the eastern ConUS is the reason for the fracture, and also playing a
hand in fairly widespread convection we`ve seen last night and so
far today.  There also appears to be at least two Mesoscale
Convective Vortices (MCVs), from earlier convection, spinning near
the Guadalupe Mountains, and the other near El Paso.  A surface
ridge over eastern portions of the forecast area is fostering a more
stable atmosphere, although showers have been able to move into the
central Permian Basin early this afternoon.

Cloud cover over the higher terrain of West Texas is beginning to
thin this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms from earlier are
moving into the PB and west central Texas.  This will allow the
atmosphere to destabilize before nightfall, and along with
persistent upslope flow and close proximity to the mentioned ua
features, result in additional shower and thunderstorm development.
Will continue to carry the highest PoPs over these areas tonight and
Saturday.  Precipitable Water is fairly high over the western third
of the forecast area, around 1.5 inches, while the soil is wet, and
flash flood guidance low.  The steering flow around/under the ua
ridge is weak so slow moving thunderstorms, some strong, could drop
1-2 inches of rain per hour.  Considering all this, will issue a
Flash Flood Watch (FFA) for locations along and west of a Guadalupe
Mountains, to Alpine to Presidio line tonight and Saturday.  Also
have concerns about Eddy County in southeast New Mexico where
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches have occurred in the last couple
of days.  It doesn`t appear the atmosphere will destabilize there
quite as much through the rest of the day, so have not included them
in the FFA.  Subsequent shifts will have to monitor and adjust
accordingly.  There could also be additional rises along the Rio
Grande River tonight and Saturday due to runoff from heavy rainfall
over the forecast area, in addition to the potential for heavy rain
over eastern Chihuahua and more water flowing into the Rio Grande
from the Rio Conchos.

Saturday night and thereafter, the eastern ConUS ua trough will
translate eastward, allowing the ua ridge to expand eastward back
over the region.  We should see a gradual decrease in monsoonal
moisture over the region as a result, more subsidence, lower rain
chances and temperatures warming back to normal levels as early as
Tuesday.  There still could be heavy rain concerns along the western
fringe of the forecast area Saturday night, if not Sunday.  Later
shifts will have to monitor the progress of the ua features to see
whether an extension of the FFA is needed.  Rain chances may be few
and far between from Sunday until Wednesday, but there are
indications another ua trough will flatten the ridge mid next week
and allow for more rain chances.  For now, will just keep a slight
chance of thunderstorms mainly over the western half of the forecast
area for mid to late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 66  88  66  89  /  20  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              70  91  68  91  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                67  86  68  89  /  50  40  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  75  91  74  96  /  30  30  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  87  68  90  /  30  30  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  76  63  79  /  60  60  30  30
HOBBS NM                   66  85  65  87  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   63  77  63  81  /  60  70  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  90  67  90  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  69  90  67  89  /  20  10  10  10
WINK TX                    68  90  69  91  /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Marfa Plateau...Presidio Valley...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$
365
FXUS64 KMAF 012321
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Currently have light easterly winds at
all terminals this evening with some light showers south of CNM
and in/near the Davis Mountains. Could see an increase in
SHRA/TSRA coverage tonight but best chances will be confined to
the far west, possibly affecting CNM, PEQ and FST at some point.
Not expecting any vis restrictions at this time therefore will not
include mention of SHRA in the TAF. However, will need to amend
if TSRA develops. Otherwise, light easterly winds will continue
through Saturday with best TSRA chances remaining to the west of
most terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An elongated and fractured upper ridge extending from SoCal to the
Mexican states of Chihuahua/Coahuila is aiding monsoonal moisture in
staying over Arizona and New Mexico, and over the western half or so
of the forecast area this afternoon.  A shortwave trough translating
slowly east/southeastward between the ua ridge and an ua trough over
the eastern ConUS is the reason for the fracture, and also playing a
hand in fairly widespread convection we`ve seen last night and so
far today.  There also appears to be at least two Mesoscale
Convective Vortices (MCVs), from earlier convection, spinning near
the Guadalupe Mountains, and the other near El Paso.  A surface
ridge over eastern portions of the forecast area is fostering a more
stable atmosphere, although showers have been able to move into the
central Permian Basin early this afternoon.

Cloud cover over the higher terrain of West Texas is beginning to
thin this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms from earlier are
moving into the PB and west central Texas.  This will allow the
atmosphere to destabilize before nightfall, and along with
persistent upslope flow and close proximity to the mentioned ua
features, result in additional shower and thunderstorm development.
Will continue to carry the highest PoPs over these areas tonight and
Saturday.  Precipitable Water is fairly high over the western third
of the forecast area, around 1.5 inches, while the soil is wet, and
flash flood guidance low.  The steering flow around/under the ua
ridge is weak so slow moving thunderstorms, some strong, could drop
1-2 inches of rain per hour.  Considering all this, will issue a
Flash Flood Watch (FFA) for locations along and west of a Guadalupe
Mountains, to Alpine to Presidio line tonight and Saturday.  Also
have concerns about Eddy County in southeast New Mexico where
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches have occurred in the last couple
of days.  It doesn`t appear the atmosphere will destabilize there
quite as much through the rest of the day, so have not included them
in the FFA.  Subsequent shifts will have to monitor and adjust
accordingly.  There could also be additional rises along the Rio
Grande River tonight and Saturday due to runoff from heavy rainfall
over the forecast area, in addition to the potential for heavy rain
over eastern Chihuahua and more water flowing into the Rio Grande
from the Rio Conchos.

Saturday night and thereafter, the eastern ConUS ua trough will
translate eastward, allowing the ua ridge to expand eastward back
over the region.  We should see a gradual decrease in monsoonal
moisture over the region as a result, more subsidence, lower rain
chances and temperatures warming back to normal levels as early as
Tuesday.  There still could be heavy rain concerns along the western
fringe of the forecast area Saturday night, if not Sunday.  Later
shifts will have to monitor the progress of the ua features to see
whether an extension of the FFA is needed.  Rain chances may be few
and far between from Sunday until Wednesday, but there are
indications another ua trough will flatten the ridge mid next week
and allow for more rain chances.  For now, will just keep a slight
chance of thunderstorms mainly over the western half of the forecast
area for mid to late next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Marfa Plateau...Presidio Valley...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

27
607
FXUS64 KMAF 011937
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
237 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

An elongated and fractured upper ridge extending from SoCal to the
Mexican states of Chihuahua/Coahuila is aiding monsoonal moisture in
staying over Arizona and New Mexico, and over the western half or so
of the forecast area this afternoon.  A shortwave trough translating
slowly east/southeastward between the ua ridge and an ua trough over
the eastern ConUS is the reason for the fracture, and also playing a
hand in fairly widespread convection we`ve seen last night and so
far today.  There also appears to be at least two Mesoscale
Convective Vortices (MCVs), from earlier convection, spinning near
the Guadalupe Mountains, and the other near El Paso.  A surface
ridge over eastern portions of the forecast area is fostering a more
stable atmosphere, although showers have been able to move into the
central Permian Basin early this afternoon.

Cloud cover over the higher terrain of West Texas is beginning to
thin this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms from earlier are
moving into the PB and west central Texas.  This will allow the
atmosphere to destabilize before nightfall, and along with
persistent upslope flow and close proximity to the mentioned ua
features, result in additional shower and thunderstorm development.
Will continue to carry the highest PoPs over these areas tonight and
Saturday.  Precipitable Water is fairly high over the western third
of the forecast area, around 1.5 inches, while the soil is wet, and
flash flood guidance low.  The steering flow around/under the ua
ridge is weak so slow moving thunderstorms, some strong, could drop
1-2 inches of rain per hour.  Considering all this, will issue a
Flash Flood Watch (FFA) for locations along and west of a Guadalupe
Mountains, to Alpine to Presidio line tonight and Saturday.  Also
have concerns about Eddy County in southeast New Mexico where
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches have occurred in the last couple
of days.  It doesn`t appear the atmosphere will destabilize there
quite as much through the rest of the day, so have not included them
in the FFA.  Subsequent shifts will have to monitor and adjust
accordingly.  There could also be additional rises along the Rio
Grande River tonight and Saturday due to runoff from heavy rainfall
over the forecast area, in addition to the potential for heavy rain
over eastern Chihuahua and more water flowing into the Rio Grande
from the Rio Conchos.

Saturday night and thereafter, the eastern ConUS ua trough will
translate eastward, allowing the ua ridge to expand eastward back
over the region.  We should see a gradual decrease in monsoonal
moisture over the region as a result, more subsidence, lower rain
chances and temperatures warming back to normal levels as early as
Tuesday.  There still could be heavy rain concerns along the western
fringe of the forecast area Saturday night, if not Sunday.  Later
shifts will have to monitor the progress of the ua features to see
whether an extension of the FFA is needed.  Rain chances may be few
and far between from Sunday until Wednesday, but there are
indications another ua trough will flatten the ridge mid next week
and allow for more rain chances.  For now, will just keep a slight
chance of thunderstorms mainly over the western half of the forecast
area for mid to late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 66  88  66  89  /  20  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              70  91  68  91  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                67  86  68  89  /  50  40  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  75  91  74  96  /  30  30  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  87  68  90  /  30  30  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  76  63  79  /  60  60  30  30
HOBBS NM                   66  85  65  87  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   63  77  63  81  /  60  70  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  90  67  90  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  69  90  67  89  /  20  10  10  10
WINK TX                    68  90  69  91  /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Saturday
     afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening through
     Saturday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Guadalupe Mountains...Marfa Plateau...
     Presidio Valley...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

05/67
773
FXUS64 KMAF 011713
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
At 17Z a dissipating patch of light rain remained near CNM.
Another larger area of rain was located just east of FST, moving
east. A decreasing trend in precipitation will continue into
early afternoon with area terminals starting out VFR with no
significant precipitation. During the afternoon, heating will
allow mainly isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms
mainly west of a line from HOB to FST, particularly in the
mountain areas. Area terminals will remain VFR through the
afternoon.

Overnight and into Saturday morning, areas of rain and
thunderstorms are expected to develop mainly in the mountain
areas,moving into the adjacent plains, potentially affecting CNM
and PEQ overnight. Will include PROB30 at these terminals this
evening with chances too low to include in forecasts during
the overnight. Conditions are expected to remain VFR across
southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas terminals through 18Z
Saturday with winds generally northeast to east at less than 12
knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

UPDATE...
Introducing slight to chance rain probabilities into the Permian
Basin. Temperatures lowered across much of region.

DISCUSSION...
This morning, a large area of rain remained over the higher terrain
of southwest Texas. An area of showers and thunderstorms also
began developing eastward into the southern Permian Basin in
an area of weak divergence aloft and elevated instability. These
showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop
over the southern Permian Basin and upper trans-Pecos through
the morning hours. Cloud cover along with the additional rainfall
across the area are expected to keep temperatures slightly cooler
than previously forecast. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
mainly over the mountains and trans-Pecos.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

AVIATION...

Cool, easterly upslope sfc flow will prevail next 24 hours. Buffer
soundings develop a widespread cu field most locations by late
morning/early afternoon, w/bases 4-8 kft agl. Best chances of
convection will be west, where upslope effects will be pronounced.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough over the eastern half of the conus.  A
surface high is near the area with showers and thunderstorms
developing and moving into the far western CWA.  High temperatures
will be slightly warmer today than yesterday.  Showers and
thunderstorms are expected today for mainly areas west and south of
the Pecos River.  Heavy rain will be possible with this convection
as the rain will be slow moving.  The precipitation will continue
across the area into the day Saturday with temperatures similar to
the previous day.  By Sunday, an upper ridge will become more
centered over the region so showers and thunderstorms will decrease
in areal coverage and will mainly form across the higher terrain.
Temperatures on Sunday will warm up slightly as skies begin clear
over the area.  The upper ridge will be even more prevalent over the
region on Monday leading to fewer showers and thunderstorms and
slightly warmer temperatures.  Temperatures on Monday are still
expected to be below normal.  Temperatures will warm to around
normal values on Tuesday with chances for precipitation decreasing.
Similar conditions are expected through the end of next week with
coverage of precipitation increasing across the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05
408
FXUS64 KMAF 011247
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
747 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Introducing slight to chance rain probabilities into the Permian
Basin. Temperatures lowered across much of region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This morning, a large area of rain remained over the higher terrain
of southwest Texas. An area of showers and thunderstorms also
began developing eastward into the southern Permian Basin in
an area of weak divergence aloft and elevated instability. These
showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop
over the southern Permian Basin and upper trans-Pecos through
the morning hours. Cloud cover along with the additional rainfall
across the area are expected to keep temperatures slightly cooler
than previously forecast. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
mainly over the mountains and trans-Pecos.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

AVIATION...

Cool, easterly upslope sfc flow will prevail next 24 hours. Buffer
soundings develop a widespread cu field most locations by late
morning/early afternoon, w/bases 4-8 kft agl. Best chances of
convection will be west, where upslope effects will be pronounced.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough over the eastern half of the conus.  A
surface high is near the area with showers and thunderstorms
developing and moving into the far western CWA.  High temperatures
will be slightly warmer today than yesterday.  Showers and
thunderstorms are expected today for mainly areas west and south of
the Pecos River.  Heavy rain will be possible with this convection
as the rain will be slow moving.  The precipitation will continue
across the area into the day Saturday with temperatures similar to
the previous day.  By Sunday, an upper ridge will become more
centered over the region so showers and thunderstorms will decrease
in areal coverage and will mainly form across the higher terrain.
Temperatures on Sunday will warm up slightly as skies begin clear
over the area.  The upper ridge will be even more prevalent over the
region on Monday leading to fewer showers and thunderstorms and
slightly warmer temperatures.  Temperatures on Monday are still
expected to be below normal.  Temperatures will warm to around
normal values on Tuesday with chances for precipitation decreasing.
Similar conditions are expected through the end of next week with
coverage of precipitation increasing across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 88  66  88  67  /  10  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              89  67  88  68  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                85  65  86  68  /  50  50  40  20
DRYDEN TX                  92  74  91  73  /  40  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  68  88  68  /  30  30  30  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  60  80  65  /  70  60  60  30
HOBBS NM                   82  64  83  65  /  20  30  20  10
MARFA TX                   78  62  80  61  /  70  60  60  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    89  66  89  67  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  88  66  88  67  /  10  20  20  10
WINK TX                    92  69  93  69  /  20  30  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05
728
FXUS64 KMAF 010951
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
451 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.AVIATION...

Cool, easterly upslope sfc flow will prevail next 24 hours. Buffer
soundings develop a widespread cu field most locations by late
morning/early afternoon, w/bases 4-8 kft agl. Best chances of
convection will be west, where upslope effects will be pronounced.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough over the eastern half of the conus.  A
surface high is near the area with showers and thunderstorms
developing and moving into the far western CWA.  High temperatures
will be slightly warmer today than yesterday.  Showers and
thunderstorms are expected today for mainly areas west and south of
the Pecos River.  Heavy rain will be possible with this convection
as the rain will be slow moving.  The precipitation will continue
across the area into the day Saturday with temperatures similar to
the previous day.  By Sunday, an upper ridge will become more
centered over the region so showers and thunderstorms will decrease
in areal coverage and will mainly form across the higher terrain.
Temperatures on Sunday will warm up slightly as skies begin clear
over the area.  The upper ridge will be even more prevalent over the
region on Monday leading to fewer showers and thunderstorms and
slightly warmer temperatures.  Temperatures on Monday are still
expected to be below normal.  Temperatures will warm to around
normal values on Tuesday with chances for precipitation decreasing.
Similar conditions are expected through the end of next week with
coverage of precipitation increasing across the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
809
FXUS64 KMAF 010946
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
446 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough over the eastern half of the conus.  A
surface high is near the area with showers and thunderstorms
developing and moving into the far western CWA.  High temperatures
will be slightly warmer today than yesterday.  Showers and
thunderstorms are expected today for mainly areas west and south of
the Pecos River.  Heavy rain will be possible with this convection
as the rain will be slow moving.  The precipitation will continue
across the area into the day Saturday with temperatures similar to
the previous day.  By Sunday, an upper ridge will become more
centered over the region so showers and thunderstorms will decrease
in areal coverage and will mainly form across the higher terrain.
Temperatures on Sunday will warm up slightly as skies begin clear
over the area.  The upper ridge will be even more prevalent over the
region on Monday leading to fewer showers and thunderstorms and
slightly warmer temperatures.  Temperatures on Monday are still
expected to be below normal.  Temperatures will warm to around
normal values on Tuesday with chances for precipitation decreasing.
Similar conditions are expected through the end of next week with
coverage of precipitation increasing across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 88  66  88  67  /  10  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              89  67  88  68  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                85  65  86  68  /  50  50  40  20
DRYDEN TX                  92  74  91  73  /  40  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  68  88  68  /  30  30  30  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  60  80  65  /  70  60  60  30
HOBBS NM                   82  64  83  65  /  20  30  20  10
MARFA TX                   78  62  80  61  /  70  60  60  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    89  66  89  67  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  88  66  88  67  /  10  20  20  10
WINK TX                    92  69  93  69  /  20  30  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/80
048
FXUS64 KMAF 010508
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1208 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.AVIATION...

Cool, easterly upslope sfc flow will prevail next 24 hours. Buffer
soundings develop a widespread cu field most locations by late
morning, w/bases 4-6 kft agl. Best chances of convection will be
west, where upslope effects will be pronounced. A few hours of
MVFR cigs will be possible at KCNM later this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014/

UPDATE...As of 6:45 PM CDT Thursday...have updated the
grids/forecast to lower PoPs across the CWA. KMAF radar is indc a
lone...weakening cell over Presidio County. Other than this
cell...the radar is clear across the CWA.

It just didn`t get warm enough to increase instability across the
area...and the upslope flow wasn`t enough to overcome the lack of
instability. Have kept the highest PoPs along the New Mexico
Mountains and adjoining Plains as well as the Mountains along the
Rio Grande where the cold front has basically stalled...and could
serve as a focus for any convective initiation.

Strobin

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions through the forecast with a light wind. Could
be a few storms overnight... mainly south near remains of frontal
boundary... but should not affect any TAF site.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently draped across the Rio Grander River. Much
cooler has filtered into southeast New Mexico and most of west
Texas behind this front with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler
at this time than yesterday afternoon. This front is forecast to
become nearly stationary through the weekend with temperatures
expected to be well below normal across the forecast area.

The bigger news this weekend is the potential for thunderstorms
with heavy rainfall in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and
areas near the Rio Grande River near this stalled front. The
dirty upper level ridge centered across New Mexico and extreme
southwest Texas has slow moving upper level disturbances trapped
within it and this will continue to be the case through the weekend.
The combination of these slow moving disturbances coupled with the
stalled boundary and the higher topography could result in locally
heavy rainfall and or flash flooding in the aforementioned areas.
Later shifts will need to monitor for the potential for a flash
flood watch Friday and or Saturday. Unfortunately further east
away from the front and disturbances, the central and eastern
Permian Basin will probably receive little meaningful precipitation
amounts through the weekend.

A drying and warming trend is expected next Monday and Tuesday
due to the expected strengthening and drying of the upper ridge.
Temperatures are expected to climb back to near normal values by
Tuesday. By next Wednesday and Thursday more weakness is forecast
to develop within the ridge. The ECMWF is more pronounced with
this weakness. For now will go with a slight chance of thunderstorms
across the mountains and the immediate adjacent plains where
topography will be an advantage. Temperatures look to be at
least near normal, possibly a little above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
268
FXUS64 KMAF 312345
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
645 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.UPDATE...As of 6:45 PM CDT Thursday...have updated the
grids/forecast to lower PoPs across the CWA. KMAF radar is indc a
lone...weakening cell over Presidio County. Other than this
cell...the radar is clear across the CWA.

It just didn`t get warm enough to increase instability across the
area...and the upslope flow wasn`t enough to overcome the lack of
instability. Have kept the highest PoPs along the New Mexico
Mountains and adjoining Plains as well as the Mountains along the
Rio Grande where the cold front has basically stalled...and could
serve as a focus for any convective initiation.

Strobin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions through the forecast with a light wind. Could
be a few storms overnight... mainly south near remains of frontal
boundary... but should not affect any TAF site.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently draped across the Rio Grander River. Much
cooler has filtered into southeast New Mexico and most of west
Texas behind this front with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler
at this time than yesterday afternoon. This front is forecast to
become nearly stationary through the weekend with temperatures
expected to be well below normal across the forecast area.

The bigger news this weekend is the potential for thunderstorms
with heavy rainfall in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and
areas near the Rio Grande River near this stalled front. The
dirty upper level ridge centered across New Mexico and extreme
southwest Texas has slow moving upper level disturbances trapped
within it and this will continue to be the case through the weekend.
The combination of these slow moving disturbances coupled with the
stalled boundary and the higher topography could result in locally
heavy rainfall and or flash flooding in the aforementioned areas.
Later shifts will need to monitor for the potential for a flash
flood watch Friday and or Saturday. Unfortunately further east
away from the front and disturbances, the central and eastern
Permian Basin will probably receive little meaningful precipitation
amounts through the weekend.

A drying and warming trend is expected next Monday and Tuesday
due to the expected strengthening and drying of the upper ridge.
Temperatures are expected to climb back to near normal values by
Tuesday. By next Wednesday and Thursday more weakness is forecast
to develop within the ridge. The ECMWF is more pronounced with
this weakness. For now will go with a slight chance of thunderstorms
across the mountains and the immediate adjacent plains where
topography will be an advantage. Temperatures look to be at
least near normal, possibly a little above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  87  66  86  /   0  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              66  89  68  87  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                65  85  66  86  /  20  30  40  40
DRYDEN TX                  76  93  71  93  /  10  40  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  89  68  87  /  10  30  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  75  59  79  /  30  60  60  60
HOBBS NM                   62  82  64  82  /   0  10  30  30
MARFA TX                   64  78  62  79  /  20  70  60  60
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66  88  67  89  /   0  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  66  88  68  88  /   0  10  20  20
WINK TX                    69  91  70  91  /   0  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/33
129
FXUS64 KMAF 312328
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
628 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions through the forecast with a light wind. Could
be a few storms overnight... mainly south near remains of frontal
boundary... but should not affect any TAF site.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently draped across the Rio Grander River. Much
cooler has filtered into southeast New Mexico and most of west
Texas behind this front with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler
at this time than yesterday afternoon. This front is forecast to
become nearly stationary through the weekend with temperatures
expected to be well below normal across the forecast area.

The bigger news this weekend is the potential for thunderstorms
with heavy rainfall in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and
areas near the Rio Grande River near this stalled front. The
dirty upper level ridge centered across New Mexico and extreme
southwest Texas has slow moving upper level disturbances trapped
within it and this will continue to be the case through the weekend.
The combination of these slow moving disturbances coupled with the
stalled boundary and the higher topography could result in locally
heavy rainfall and or flash flooding in the aforementioned areas.
Later shifts will need to monitor for the potential for a flash
flood watch Friday and or Saturday. Unfortunately further east
away from the front and disturbances, the central and eastern
Permian Basin will probably receive little meaningful precipitation
amounts through the weekend.

A drying and warming trend is expected next Monday and Tuesday
due to the expected strengthening and drying of the upper ridge.
Temperatures are expected to climb back to near normal values by
Tuesday. By next Wednesday and Thursday more weakness is forecast
to develop within the ridge. The ECMWF is more pronounced with
this weakness. For now will go with a slight chance of thunderstorms
across the mountains and the immediate adjacent plains where
topography will be an advantage. Temperatures look to be at
least near normal, possibly a little above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
940
FXUS64 KMAF 311949
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
249 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently draped across the Rio Grander River. Much
cooler has filtered into southeast New Mexico and most of west
Texas behind this front with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler
at this time than yesterday afternoon. This front is forecast to
become nearly stationary through the weekend with temperatures
expected to be well below normal across the forecast area.

The bigger news this weekend is the potential for thunderstorms
with heavy rainfall in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and
areas near the Rio Grande River near this stalled front. The
dirty upper level ridge centered across New Mexico and extreme
southwest Texas has slow moving upper level disturbances trapped
within it and this will continue to be the case through the weekend.
The combination of these slow moving disturbances coupled with the
stalled boundary and the higher topography could result in locally
heavy rainfall and or flash flooding in the aforementioned areas.
Later shifts will need to monitor for the potential for a flash
flood watch Friday and or Saturday. Unfortunately further east
away from the front and disturbances, the central and eastern
Permian Basin will probably receive little meaningful precipitation
amounts through the weekend.

A drying and warming trend is expected next Monday and Tuesday
due to the expected strengthening and drying of the upper ridge.
Temperatures are expected to climb back to near normal values by
Tuesday. By next Wednesday and Thursday more weakness is forecast
to develop within the ridge. The ECMWF is more pronounced with
this weakness. For now will go with a slight chance of thunderstorms
across the mountains and the immediate adjacent plains where
topography will be an advantage. Temperatures look to be at
least near normal, possibly a little above normal.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  87  66  86  /  10  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              66  89  68  87  /  10   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                65  85  66  86  /  30  30  40  40
DRYDEN TX                  76  93  71  93  /  20  40  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  89  68  87  /  20  30  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  75  59  79  /  40  60  60  60
HOBBS NM                   62  82  64  82  /  10  10  30  30
MARFA TX                   64  78  62  79  /  30  70  60  60
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66  88  67  89  /  10  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  66  88  68  88  /  10  10  20  20
WINK TX                    69  91  70  91  /  10  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
877
FXUS64 KMAF 311721
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1221 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to realign PoPs through this afternoon, in addition to
adjusting high temperatures and cloud cover. The latest Aviation
Discussion is also included.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convection over southeast New Mexico and the Upper Trans Pecos has
decreased in strength and coverage late this morning.  The
atmosphere in these areas has been stabilized due to the rainfall,
and with cloud cover lasting well into the afternoon, think further
thunderstorm development may be postponed.  Since there is much of
the day left, think cloud cover will decrease and there could be a
few showers and thunderstorms.  A surface ridge resides over
locations further east, and it appears shower and thunderstorm
development in these areas is pretty unlikely this afternoon and
evening.  High temperatures have been adjusted downward for this
afternoon due to extensive cloud cover over the area, especially
over southeast New Mexico due to the rainfall.  The exception will
be along the Rio Grande River where the cooler air from the
mentioned surface ridge will not have as much affect.

The frontal boundary has pushed into the higher terrain over
southwest Texas.  Think thunderstorm chances will be better over
these areas this afternoon and evening since the atmosphere will
destabilize through max heating.  Upslope flow will not be optimal
due to north to northeasterly surface winds, but the combination of
a vorticity maximum and precipitable water values near 1.5" could
result in fairly widespread thunderstorms and possible heavy
rainfall.  Slow moving, strong thunderstorms could lead to localized
flash flooding, in addition to gusty winds over 50 mph as SBCAPE
values rise to 1000-1500 J/kg.  Will make a mention in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook for this potential.  Will also tweak cloud cover
over the area for increasing clouds south, and decreasing coverage
north.  An update will follow shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings are persisting over the region early this afternoon as
mid and high cloud is preventing the lower deck mixing out.  Expect
MVFR ceilings to rise by 31/19Z, and will carry VFR thereafter.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening,
but think they will stay south and west of all area TAF sites.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
261
FXUS64 KMAF 311130
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.UPDATE...

Have issued update to increase pops and QPF amounts as well as add
mention of heavy rainfall into the weather grids for today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Have updated forecast to increase pops and rainfall amounts for
today across southeast New Mexico and areas west of the Pecos
River.  Also, added heavy rainfall across the above mentioned
areas.  Currently, on radar there is an area of rainfall that is
slow moving and has already caused flash flooding in southeast New
Mexico.  There is expected to be more development of rain in this area
during the day today.  The HPC day 1 excessive rainfall graphic
outlines this area as a slight risk.  There is good instability
across the region and upslope flow, and precipitation is expected to
train across the same areas possibly leading to more flash flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cluster of thunderstorms over southeast New Mexico should
gradually diminish in strength and areal coverage through 31/15Z.
Will include a mention of TSRA at KCNM and KHOB, but due to the
slow movement of the storms, will not include any other TAF sites
at this time.  MVFR ceilings will affect all area TAF sites through
31/15Z, but should lift to VFR thereafter.  VFR conditions will then
prevail through the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough over the eastern conus putting the CWA
under northwest flow aloft.  A cold front has recently pushing
through the area and is stalled along the higher terrain.  Showers
and thunderstorms are currently moving across southeast New Mexico
as a response to the increase in lift over the region.
Precipitation will continue today mainly to the south and west of
the Pecos River.  Temperatures will be much cooler today with the
surface ridge across the area behind the front.

Conditions will be similar on Friday with showers and thunderstorms
across the same areas as the previous day and temperatures about the
same.  Locally moderate to heavy rain will be possible in these
areas with a good supply of moisture present.  An upper ridge will
begin moving and building over the region during the weekend and the
early part of next week.  Convection will be possible across the
higher terrain with instability and upslope flow present.  During
the middle part of next week, an upper trough will move over the
central plains sending a cold front southward toward the area.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase as a result of
this.  Temperatures are expected to remain below normal through the
early part of next week before warming to near normal by mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 86  66  87  66  /  20  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              85  66  87  67  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                86  68  83  66  /  60  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  92  75  91  75  /  30  30  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  69  86  69  /  40  30  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          81  61  75  62  /  60  50  50  60
HOBBS NM                   84  64  82  64  /  40  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   84  64  78  62  /  60  40  60  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    87  67  88  67  /  20  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  87  67  88  67  /  20  20  20  10
WINK TX                    91  70  87  70  /  40  20  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99
989
FXUS64 KMAF 310928
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
427 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough over the eastern conus putting the CWA
under northwest flow aloft.  A cold front has recently pushing
through the area and is stalled along the higher terrain.  Showers
and thunderstorms are currently moving across southeast New Mexico
as a response to the increase in lift over the region.
Precipitation will continue today mainly to the south and west of
the Pecos River.  Temperatures will be much cooler today with the
surface ridge across the area behind the front.

Conditions will be similar on Friday with showers and thunderstorms
across the same areas as the previous day and temperatures about the
same.  Locally moderate to heavy rain will be possible in these
areas with a good supply of moisture present.  An upper ridge will
begin moving and building over the region during the weekend and the
early part of next week.  Convection will be possible across the
higher terrain with instability and upslope flow present.  During
the middle part of next week, an upper trough will move over the
central plains sending a cold front southward toward the area.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase as a result of
this.  Temperatures are expected to remain below normal through the
early part of next week before warming to near normal by mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 86  66  87  66  /  20  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              85  66  87  67  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                86  68  83  66  /  20  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  92  75  91  75  /  30  30  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  69  86  69  /  30  30  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          81  61  75  62  /  40  50  50  60
HOBBS NM                   84  64  82  64  /  20  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   84  64  78  62  /  60  40  60  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    87  67  88  67  /  20  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  87  67  88  67  /  20  20  20  10
WINK TX                    91  70  87  70  /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80
605
FXUS64 KMAF 310524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front currently pushing through SE NM and Permian Basin...
could still see a few storms along it mainly near CNM and MAF.
Otherwise expect gusty north wind after fropa to continue most of
the night.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Surface troughs located along the west Texas/eastern New Mexico
border and across southeast New Mexico is combining with very
intense heating to produce the development of isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms across the Eddy county plains and
Guadalupe and Davis mountains this afternoon. Expect activity to
continue to increase in coverage tonight across southeast New
Mexico and much of west Texas as low level convergence associated
with a cold front pushes south into the forecast area. Also aiding
in the chance of thunderstorms tonight will be the retrogression
of the upper high from west Texas back west toward Arizona and New
Mexico.

The cold front will continue to push south toward the Rio Grande
River tonight and Thursday. This will push the better chance of
convection to areas mainly south and west of the Pecos River
during the day Thursday. Behind this front high temperatures
Thursday are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today.
The chance of thunderstorms will continue Thursday night and
expand northeastward again to include the western and central
Permian Basin due to a shortwave tracking into the area from the
northwest with some warm advection taking place above and north of
the front.

For Friday through next Monday the front is forecast to stall
along and or near the Rio Grande River. This will keep the chance
of thunderstorms continuing through all these periods mainly south
and west of the Pecos River with the best chance in the mountains
closest to the front with unstable upslope flow behind the front.
Temperatures are expected to be below normal in the cooler air
behind the front with a significant amount of cloud cover expected
areawide as well.

Beyond Monday kept a slight chance of thunderstorms going mainly in
the mountains along a surface trough with temperatures warming
toward normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
856
FXUS64 KMAF 302338
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
638 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Can expected scattered storms near most TAF sites through the evening
as a cold front approaches the area. Very gusty wind possible
with these storms... blowing dust will reduce vsbys to local MVFR.
Wind will become northerly overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Surface troughs located along the west Texas/eastern New Mexico
border and across southeast New Mexico is combining with very
intense heating to produce the development of isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms across the Eddy county plains and
Guadalupe and Davis mountains this afternoon. Expect activity to
continue to increase in coverage tonight across southeast New
Mexico and much of west Texas as low level convergence associated
with a cold front pushes south into the forecast area. Also aiding
in the chance of thunderstorms tonight will be the retrogression
of the upper high from west Texas back west toward Arizona and New
Mexico.

The cold front will continue to push south toward the Rio Grande
River tonight and Thursday. This will push the better chance of
convection to areas mainly south and west of the Pecos River
during the day Thursday. Behind this front high temperatures
Thursday are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today.
The chance of thunderstorms will continue Thursday night and
expand northeastward again to include the western and central
Permian Basin due to a shortwave tracking into the area from the
northwest with some warm advection taking place above and north of
the front.

For Friday through next Monday the front is forecast to stall
along and or near the Rio Grande River. This will keep the chance
of thunderstorms continuing through all these periods mainly south
and west of the Pecos River with the best chance in the mountains
closest to the front with unstable upslope flow behind the front.
Temperatures are expected to be below normal in the cooler air
behind the front with a significant amount of cloud cover expected
areawide as well.

Beyond Monday kept a slight chance of thunderstorms going mainly in
the mountains along a surface trough with temperatures warming
toward normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
637
FXUS64 KMAF 301952
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
252 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Surface troughs located along the west Texas/eastern New Mexico
border and across southeast New Mexico is combining with very
intense heating to produce the development of isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms across the Eddy county plains and
Guadalupe and Davis mountains this afternoon. Expect activity to
continue to increase in coverage tonight across southeast New
Mexico and much of west Texas as low level convergence associated
with a cold front pushes south into the forecast area. Also aiding
in the chance of thunderstorms tonight will be the retrogression
of the upper high from west Texas back west toward Arizona and New
Mexico.

The cold front will continue to push south toward the Rio Grande
River tonight and Thursday. This will push the better chance of
convection to areas mainly south and west of the Pecos River
during the day Thursday. Behind this front high temperatures
Thursday are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today.
The chance of thunderstorms will continue Thursday night and
expand northeastward again to include the western and central
Permian Basin due to a shortwave tracking into the area from the
northwest with some warm advection taking place above and north of
the front.

For Friday through next Monday the front is forecast to stall
along and or near the Rio Grande River. This will keep the chance
of thunderstorms continuing through all these periods mainly south
and west of the Pecos River with the best chance in the mountains
closest to the front with unstable upslope flow behind the front.
Temperatures are expected to be below normal in the cooler air
behind the front with a significant amount of cloud cover expected
areawide as well.

Beyond Monday kept a slight chance of thunderstorms going mainly in
the mountains along a surface trough with temperatures warming
toward normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  87  66  86  /  30  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              68  85  68  86  /  30  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  85  68  85  /  30  10  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  76  94  74  91  /  10  20  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  90  68  87  /  30  30  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  82  61  79  /  30  30  30  40
HOBBS NM                   66  85  66  83  /  30  10  20  20
MARFA TX                   66  84  66  80  /  30  40  30  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  88  66  87  /  30  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  68  88  67  87  /  30  10  10  20
WINK TX                    72  91  72  90  /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
178
FXUS64 KMAF 301706
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and tonight,
especially over southeast New Mexico, the Upper trans Pecos and the
Permian Basin.  Will keep a TSRA mention at KHOB, KINK, KPEQ and
KMAF this afternoon, and introduce TSRA at the rest of the TAF
sites after 31/00Z.  MVFR ceilings could form late tonight and
affect all but KFST and KPEQ.  This will be near the end of the
forecast period, so will not include in this issuance.  67

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

An upper level trough is over the eastern Conus and a shortwave
is moving over Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle on the backside of
this trough. Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving across
the above mentioned area as a result of the increased lift. A cold
front associated with this shortwave will move south toward the
CWA today. A surface trough will be present this afternoon ahead
of the front so high temperatures will warm into the triple digits
for many places. There is a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the CWA as the front approaches.

The front will move through the CWA on Thursday with temperatures
behind the front cooling to below normal values.  Chances of showers
and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday with the best chances
being across the higher terrain near the edge of the front.
Precipitation will still be present on Friday in roughly the same
areas as the region remains under northwest flow aloft.  Temperatures
will gradually start to warm up on Friday as the surface high moves
away from the region.  Conditions will be similar on Saturday and on
through the beginning of next week with below normal temperatures
and convection remaining across the area.  Upper ridging will take
shape over the region with precipitation remaining across the higher
terrain the beginning of next week.  During the middle part of next
week, a trough will move over the Upper Midwest with another cold
front approaching the area.  This will contribute to more showers
and thunderstorms developing near the front.  Temperatures are
expected to be near or below normal values in the extended forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
847
FXUS64 KMAF 301124
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
SE surface winds less than 10kts will turn to the sw mid morning
and increase 10-15kts as trof develops ahead of front. Opted to
include PROB30 TSRA at MAF/INK/PEQ/HOB 22Z-03Z with strong daytime
heating ahead of front and better mstr/instability in its wake.
Storms that may for s of front will be especially capable of gusty
downburst type winds. Front will be thru all TAFs by 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is over the eastern conus and a shortwave is
moving over Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle on the backside of this
trough.  Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving across the
above mentioned area as a result of the increased lift.  A cold
front associated with this shortwave will move south toward the CWA
today.  A surface trough will be present this afternoon ahead of the
front so high temperatures will warm into the triple digits for many
places.  There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for
the CWA as the front approaches.

The front will move through the CWA on Thursday with temperatures
behind the front cooling to below normal values.  Chances of showers
and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday with the best chances
being across the higher terrain near the edge of the front.
Precipitation will still be present on Friday in roughly the same
areas as the region remains under northwest flow aloft.  Temperatures
will gradually start to warm up on Friday as the surface high moves
away from the region.  Conditions will be similar on Saturday and on
through the beginning of next week with below normal temperatures
and convection remaining across the area.  Upper ridging will take
shape over the region with precipitation remaining across the higher
terrain the beginning of next week.  During the middle part of next
week, a trough will move over the Upper Midwest with another cold
front approaching the area.  This will contribute to more showers
and thunderstorms developing near the front.  Temperatures are
expected to be near or below normal values in the extended forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
100
FXUS64 KMAF 300959
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
458 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is over the eastern conus and a shortwave is
moving over Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle on the backside of this
trough.  Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving across the
above mentioned area as a result of the increased lift.  A cold
front associated with this shortwave will move south toward the CWA
today.  A surface trough will be present this afternoon ahead of the
front so high temperatures will warm into the triple digits for many
places.  There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for
the CWA as the front approaches.

The front will move through the CWA on Thursday with temperatures
behind the front cooling to below normal values.  Chances of showers
and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday with the best chances
being across the higher terrain near the edge of the front.
Precipitation will still be present on Friday in roughly the same
areas as the region remains under northwest flow aloft.  Temperatures
will gradually start to warm up on Friday as the surface high moves
away from the region.  Conditions will be similar on Saturday and on
through the beginning of next week with below normal temperatures
and convection remaining across the area.  Upper ridging will take
shape over the region with precipitation remaining across the higher
terrain the beginning of next week.  During the middle part of next
week, a trough will move over the Upper Midwest with another cold
front approaching the area.  This will contribute to more showers
and thunderstorms developing near the front.  Temperatures are
expected to be near or below normal values in the extended forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                101  68  85  66  /  20  20  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              98  68  85  68  /  20  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                99  70  85  69  /  20  30  20  40
DRYDEN TX                 101  76  96  75  /   0  10  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX          102  71  88  70  /  20  20  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          93  62  80  64  /  20  30  30  40
HOBBS NM                   97  66  83  64  /  20  30  20  30
MARFA TX                   92  66  85  65  /  30  20  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  69  87  68  /  20  20  20  20
ODESSA TX                 101  68  87  69  /  20  20  20  20
WINK TX                   104  72  91  71  /  20  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/80
176
FXUS64 KMAF 300517
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1217 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Winds slowly turning back to the SE INVOF MAF as wind shift
assocd with earlier outflow boundary wanes. Today another
boundary will turn winds back to the n-ne late this
afternoon/early evening except at FST. There are concerns for
tstms to be near TAF sites this afternoon, but best instability
looks to be in wake of the front where better mstr will be found.
For now will leave tstms out of TAFs since its in the later part
of the fcst, but may include some PROB30 groups on 12Z issuance.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
995
FXUS64 KMAF 292325
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
625 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Most of the afternoon storms have moved off to the east and not
expecting much else the rest of the night. Do have a large
boundary on radar across the central Permian Basin that will have
to be monitored for development. The wind field is generally
light and variable but should tend to go around to south by
tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Weak stationary front across the Permian Basin is forecast to
retreat northward tonight and early Wednesday. Will continue
isolated thunderstorms north of the boundary across the extreme
northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico and the mountains
through Wednesday morning in the cooler air aloft. The boundary
is expected to push back south toward the lower Trans Pecos
and Davis Mountains by Thursday morning due to the amplification
of the upper low across eastern Canada. Accordingly the chance of
showers and thunderstorms (slight chance) will increase north of
this boundary later Wednesday and Wednesday night for the northern
and central Permian Basin, upper Trans Pecos and including southeast
New Mexico.

The cold front will continue to push south toward the Rio Grande
River Thursday and Thursday night. This will push the better
chance of convection to areas mainly south and west of the
Pecos River during the day Thursday. Behind this front high
temperatures Thursday are expected to be around 15 degrees
cooler north of the Pecos River. The chance of thunderstorms
will include the entire forecast area Thursday night due to
a shortwave tracking into the area from the northwest with
some warm advection taking place above and behind the front.

For Friday through Sunday the front is forecast to stall along
and or near the Rio Grande River. This will keep the chance of
thunderstorms continuing through all these periods mainly south and
west of the Pecos River with the best chance in the mountains
closest to the front with unstable upslope flow behind the
front. Temperatures are expected to be below normal in the cooler
air behind the front with a significant amount of cloud cover
expected areawide as well.

Beyond Sunday kept a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
mountains in upslope flow on Monday. The GFS model is indicating
much more widespread convection Monday and Tuesday due to
shortwaves trapped within the upper ridge in the area. The ECMWF
model is not indicating this scenario so will not go with that
solultion this far out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72 102  65  84  /  10  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              74 102  67  82  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                72 103  69  87  /  10  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  76 108  76  95  /  10   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           73 103  69  91  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  96  62  79  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   68  98  65  86  /  10  20  30  10
MARFA TX                   62  94  66  85  /  10  30  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73 103  68  85  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  75 102  68  86  /  10  10  20  10
WINK TX                    75 106  72  90  /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
373
FXUS64 KMAF 292000
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
300 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Weak stationary front across the Permian Basin is forecast to
retreat northward tonight and early Wednesday. Will continue
isolated thunderstorms north of the boundary across the extreme
northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico and the mountains
through Wednesday morning in the cooler air aloft. The boundary
is expected to push back south toward the lower Trans Pecos
and Davis Mountains by Thursday morning due to the amplification
of the upper low across eastern Canada. Accordingly the chance of
showers and thunderstorms (slight chance) will increase north of
this boundary later Wednesday and Wednesday night for the northern
and central Permian Basin, upper Trans Pecos and including southeast
New Mexico.

The cold front will continue to push south toward the Rio Grande
River Thursday and Thursday night. This will push the better
chance of convection to areas mainly south and west of the
Pecos River during the day Thursday. Behind this front high
temperatures Thursday are expected to be around 15 degrees
cooler north of the Pecos River. The chance of thunderstorms
will include the entire forecast area Thursday night due to
a shortwave tracking into the area from the northwest with
some warm advection taking place above and behind the front.

For Friday through Sunday the front is forecast to stall along
and or near the Rio Grande River. This will keep the chance of
thunderstorms continuing through all these periods mainly south and
west of the Pecos River with the best chance in the mountains
closest to the front with unstable upslope flow behind the
front. Temperatures are expected to be below normal in the cooler
air behind the front with a significant amount of cloud cover
expected areawide as well.

Beyond Sunday kept a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
mountains in upslope flow on Monday. The GFS model is indicating
much more widespread convection Monday and Tuesday due to
shortwaves trapped within the upper ridge in the area. The ECMWF
model is not indicating this scenario so will not go with that
solultion this far out.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72 102  65  84  /  10  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              74 102  67  82  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                72 103  69  87  /  10  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  76 108  76  95  /  10   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           73 103  69  91  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  96  62  79  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   68  98  65  86  /  10  20  30  10
MARFA TX                   62  94  66  85  /  10  30  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73 103  68  85  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  75 102  68  86  /  10  10  20  10
WINK TX                    75 106  72  90  /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/12
111
FXUS64 KMAF 291657
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1157 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with no significant weather will be the rule across
southwest Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals through 18Z
Wednesday. An area of rain and embedded thunderstorms is expected
to remain north of CNM and HOB through the afternoon. Redevelopment
of thunderstorms in this area is likely, though activity will
continue to remain mainly north with only slight chances of
thunderstorms at CNM and HOB and isolated thunderstorms elsewhere
with chances too small to include in terminal forecasts. Winds
will be generally south to southeast at 10 to 15 knots this
afternoon and into the evening with a few gusts mainly in the Permian
Basin area including MAF. Overnight and into Wednesday morning,
winds will become mostly southerly at less than 10 knots.
Cloudiness will be mostly constrained to southeast New Mexico with
broken mid- and upper- level clouds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
out of the south to southeast with some possible gusts this afternoon.
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms through the period, but
probabilities remain low so left out of TAFS for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Tstms have moved into the far NW CWFA and are slowly
moving/developing to the e-se, but looks like intensity is steady
or slowly weakening. We made some adjustment to short term PoPs
and wx grids to account for increased rain chances this morning
in far NW CWFA. Otherwise model consensus for today is that the
subtropical ridge will be centered INVOF srn AZ leaving much of
the CWFA in NW flow aloft. Meanwhile radar last showed surface
boundary nearing the Pecos River and still pushing s. There is
some hint in the MSLP/surface wind fields for this PM that a
boundary will be oriented NW-SE across the far nrn CWFA or just to
the n of it. SB LI fields this PM indicate best instability will
be from the Davis Mtns w-nw and then across the far nw-n CWFA.
This is what models were depicting several days ago and we will
orient low order PoPs as such btwn 18Z-06Z. Wed all models agree
it will be hot and that n of the cold front it will be much more
unstable. GFS has come around to the ECMWF`s solution from a few
days ago with an earlier FROPA. Most areas s of I-20 will remain
stable. Models agree fairly well that in evening as front moves
into the PB the chance of SHRA/TSRA will increase, which is
generally what we have in the current forecast and will make only
minor changes. There`s a good chance that this early arrival of
front will result in diminished chance of precip Thur PM, especially
n of I-20. As such will need to re-orient PoPs in grids for Thur
PM. The good news is Thur will be much cooler, approximately 5-10
below normal n of I-20. Still we will need to watch in the NW flow
aloft Thur night/early Fri AM for possibility of storms across
w-nw. Moist upslope flow will favor isold/slght chc PoPs in the
mtns Fri/Sat PM. Sun/Mon looks dry with monsoonal moisture
focusing across wrn NM/AZ. 5h heights remain low too and MEX
guidance optimistically keep lows in the mid to upper 60s Thur-
Tue.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05
663
FXUS64 KMAF 291123
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
615 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
out of the south to southeast with some possible gusts this afternoon.
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms through the period, but
probabilities remain low so left out of TAFS for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Tstms have moved into the far NW CWFA and are slowly
moving/developing to the e-se, but looks like intensity is steady
or slowly weakening. We made some adjustment to short term PoPs
and wx grids to account for increased rain chances this morning
in far NW CWFA. Otherwise model consensus for today is that the
subtropical ridge will be centered INVOF srn AZ leaving much of
the CWFA in NW flow aloft. Meanwhile radar last showed surface
boundary nearing the Pecos River and still pushing s. There is
some hint in the MSLP/surface wind fields for this PM that a
boundary will be oriented NW-SE across the far nrn CWFA or just to
the n of it. SB LI fields this PM indicate best instability will
be from the Davis Mtns w-nw and then across the far nw-n CWFA.
This is what models were depicting several days ago and we will
orient low order PoPs as such btwn 18Z-06Z. Wed all models agree
it will be hot and that n of the cold front it will be much more
unstable. GFS has come around to the ECMWF`s solution from a few
days ago with an earlier FROPA. Most areas s of I-20 will remain
stable. Models agree fairly well that in evening as front moves
into the PB the chance of SHRA/TSRA will increase, which is
generally what we have in the current forecast and will make only
minor changes. There`s a good chance that this early arrival of
front will result in diminished chance of precip Thur PM, especially
n of I-20. As such will need to re-orient PoPs in grids for Thur
PM. The good news is Thur will be much cooler, approximately 5-10
below normal n of I-20. Still we will need to watch in the NW flow
aloft Thur night/early Fri AM for possibility of storms across
w-nw. Moist upslope flow will favor isold/slght chc PoPs in the
mtns Fri/Sat PM. Sun/Mon looks dry with monsoonal moisture
focusing across wrn NM/AZ. 5h heights remain low too and MEX
guidance optimistically keep lows in the mid to upper 60s Thur-
Tue.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
220
FXUS64 KMAF 290841
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
341 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tstms have moved into the far NW CWFA and are slowly
moving/developing to the e-se, but looks like intensity is steady
or slowly weakening. We made some adjustment to short term PoPs
and wx grids to account for increased rain chances this morning
in far NW CWFA. Otherwise model consensus for today is that the
subtropical ridge will be centered INVOF srn AZ leaving much of
the CWFA in NW flow aloft. Meanwhile radar last showed surface
boundary nearing the Pecos River and still pushing s. There is
some hint in the MSLP/surface wind fields for this PM that a
boundary will be oriented NW-SE across the far nrn CWFA or just to
the n of it. SB LI fields this PM indicate best instability will
be from the Davis Mtns w-nw and then across the far nw-n CWFA.
This is what models were depicting several days ago and we will
orient low order PoPs as such btwn 18Z-06Z. Wed all models agree
it will be hot and that n of the cold front it will be much more
unstable. GFS has come around to the ECMWF`s solution from a few
days ago with an earlier FROPA. Most areas s of I-20 will remain
stable. Models agree fairly well that in evening as front moves
into the PB the chance of SHRA/TSRA will increase, which is
generally what we have in the current forecast and will make only
minor changes. There`s a good chance that this early arrival of
front will result in diminished chance of precip Thur PM, especially
n of I-20. As such will need to re-orient PoPs in grids for Thur
PM. The good news is Thur will be much cooler, approximately 5-10
below normal n of I-20. Still we will need to watch in the NW flow
aloft Thur night/early Fri AM for possibility of storms across
w-nw. Moist upslope flow will favor isold/slght chc PoPs in the
mtns Fri/Sat PM. Sun/Mon looks dry with monsoonal moisture
focusing across wrn NM/AZ. 5h heights remain low too and MEX
guidance optimistically keep lows in the mid to upper 60s Thur-
Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 94  72  98  64  /  10  10  10  30
BIG SPRING TX              94  75 100  68  /  10  10  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                98  73 101  69  /  20  10  10  30
DRYDEN TX                 103  78 106  78  /  10  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  73 101  69  /  10  10  10  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          87  70  94  60  /  20  20  10  30
HOBBS NM                   92  69  96  65  /  20  10  10  30
MARFA TX                   88  63  92  65  /  10  10  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    95  74 101  67  /  10  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                  95  75 100  67  /  10  10  10  30
WINK TX                   100  75 102  72  /  10  10  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
079
FXUS64 KMAF 290523
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
out of the southeast overnight and will gradually weaken over the
next few hours.  Winds will become southerly Tuesday afternoon with
some possible gusts.  There is a slight chance of thunderstorms for
HOB through the period, but probabilities remain low so left out of
TAFS for now.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered directly over West
Texas/SE NM, a bit further south than 24 hours ago.  However, the
ridge has weakened slightly, and w/abundant cloud cover noted on vis
sat imagery and out the window, temperatures are noticeably cooler
this afternoon than yesterday. Yesterday`s boundary that stalled
north of the FA finally moved south this morning/afternoon,
spawning an almost instantaneous cu field along and behind it.
Area radars show a few cells trying to develop near KSWW, near a
bullseye of 2000+ sbcape over KSNK. The NAM develops stronger
convection on a vort max moving into east central NM this evening,
but that should stay mostly north of here. Aside from that, we`ve
inserted isolated POPs this evening...mainly north of the Pecos
along the boundary. NAM then hints at moving this feature back
north overnight, which will serve as a focus for Tuesday over the
northern zones.

Temps Tuesday should be similar to today`s, but temps are still on
tap to climb back into the triple digits Wednesday afternoon as
thicknesses spike and south winds increase in response to leeside
troughing.  However, a cold front is still on tap to move into the
area Wednesday night.  Models are considerably stronger w/this
feature than 24 hours ago, and this looks to the best focus/trigger
for convection this forecast.  Models hint at a high wind event for
post-frontal gap winds at KGDP...but given winds from the
N-NE...we`ll not bite on this just yet...as a more E-W orientation
is preferred.  Thursday afternoon looks cool, w/H85 temps in the NE
zones in the upper teens by 00Z Friday.  Much will depend on extent
of Wednesday night`s rainfall, and residual cloud cover behind the
front.

Friday, things begin warming back up as the upper ridge sets up over
the Four Corners more or less into the extended.  However, temps
should remain below normal as thicknesses don`t budge much and the
CWA remains in easterly or even northeasterly flow.  Again, w/no
triggers to focus on, and minor disturbances moving thru the east
side of the ridge, cannot rule out the low-POP, shotgun scenario
currently in the grids.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
255
FXUS64 KMAF 282304
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
604 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over New Mexico this evening
and tonight.  Probabilities are too low to include at KCNM or KHOB
though.  Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail areawide
during the next 24 hours.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered directly over West
Texas/SE NM, a bit further south than 24 hours ago.  However, the
ridge has weakened slightly, and w/abundant cloud cover noted on vis
sat imagery and out the window, temperatures are noticeably cooler
this afternoon than yesterday. Yesterday`s boundary that stalled
north of the FA finally moved south this morning/afternoon,
spawning an almost instantaneous cu field along and behind it.
Area radars show a few cells trying to develop near KSWW, near a
bullseye of 2000+ sbcape over KSNK. The NAM develops stronger
convection on a vort max moving into east central NM this evening,
but that should stay mostly north of here. Aside from that, we`ve
inserted isolated POPs this evening...mainly north of the Pecos
along the boundary. NAM then hints at moving this feature back
north overnight, which will serve as a focus for Tuesday over the
northern zones.

Temps Tuesday should be similar to today`s, but temps are still on
tap to climb back into the triple digits Wednesday afternoon as
thicknesses spike and south winds increase in response to leeside
troughing.  However, a cold front is still on tap to move into the
area Wednesday night.  Models are considerably stronger w/this
feature than 24 hours ago, and this looks to the best focus/trigger
for convection this forecast.  Models hint at a high wind event for
post-frontal gap winds at KGDP...but given winds from the
N-NE...we`ll not bite on this just yet...as a more E-W orientation
is preferred.  Thursday afternoon looks cool, w/H85 temps in the NE
zones in the upper teens by 00Z Friday.  Much will depend on extent
of Wednesday night`s rainfall, and residual cloud cover behind the
front.

Friday, things begin warming back up as the upper ridge sets up over
the Four Corners more or less into the extended.  However, temps
should remain below normal as thicknesses don`t budge much and the
CWA remains in easterly or even northeasterly flow.  Again, w/no
triggers to focus on, and minor disturbances moving thru the east
side of the ridge, cannot rule out the low-POP, shotgun scenario
currently in the grids.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  96  72 101  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              74  95  73 100  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                74  95  69 101  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  76  96  73 101  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  98  73 102  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  86  72  89  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   71  94  70  98  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   60  88  62  90  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  96  73 101  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  76  96  72 101  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    76 101  74 104  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44
135
FXUS64 KMAF 282000
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered directly over West
Texas/SE NM, a bit further south than 24 hours ago.  However, the
ridge has weakened slightly, and w/abundant cloud cover noted ob vis
sat imagery and out the window, temperatures are noticeably cooler
this afternoon than yesterday.  Yesterday`s boundary that stalled
north of the FA finally moved south this morning/afternoon, spawning
an almost instantaneous cu field along and behind it.  Area radars
show a few cells trying to develop near KSWW, near a bullseye of
2000+ sbcape over KSNK.  The NAM develops stronger convection on a
vort max moving into east central NM this evening, but that should
stay mostly north of here.  Aside from that, we`ve inserted isolated
POPs this evening...mainly north of the Pecos along the boundary.
NAM then hints at moving this feature back north overnight, which
will serve as a focus for Tuesday over the northern
zones.

Temps Tuesday should be similar to today`s, but temps are still on
tap to climb back into the triple digits Wednesday afternoon as
thicknesses spike and south winds increase in response to leeside
troughing.  However, a cold front is still on tap to move into the
area Wednesday night.  Models are considerably stronger w/this
feature than 24 hours ago, and this looks to the best focus/trigger
for convection this forecast.  Models hint at a high wind event for
post-frontal gap winds at KGDP...but given winds from the
N-NE...we`ll not bite on this just yet...as a more E-W orientation
is preferred.  Thursday afternoon looks cool, w/H85 temps in the NE
zones in the upper teens by 00Z Friday.  Much will depend on extent
of Wednesday night`s rainfall, and residual cloud cover behind the
front.

Friday, things begin warming back up as the upper ridge sets up over
the Four Corners more or less into the extended.  However, temps
should remain below normal as thicknesses don`t budge much and the
CWA remains in easterly or even northeasterly flow.  Again, w/no
triggers to focus on, and minor disturbances moving thru the east
side of the ridge, cannot rule out the low-POP, shotgun scenario
currently in the grids.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  96  72 101  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              74  95  73 100  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                74  95  69 101  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  76  96  73 101  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  98  73 102  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  86  72  89  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   71  94  70  98  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   60  88  62  90  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  96  73 101  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  76  96  72 101  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    76 101  74 104  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44
321
FXUS64 KMAF 281731
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1231 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Cold front across the
northern Permian Basin is expected to push south toward the central
Permian Basin and then stall before moving north again late tonight.
With an upper ridge over the region confidence was not high enough
at this time to mention any thunderstorms at any of the terminals
at this time. Will continue to monitor. Winds will generally be
easterly at 10 to 20 mph and gusty this afternoon. Winds should
generally diminish to 10 mph or less early this evening and
continue overnight.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. A front continues to slowly sink south
toward HOB this morning and may finally make it near MAF by late
morning. Expect strong easterly winds at both HOB and MAF through
the afternoon. Elsewhere, SE winds are expected to increase
throughout the morning then diminish after sunset. Could see some
isolated convection develop along/near the front this afternoon and
evening, possibly affecting HOB, CNM and MAF but will hold off on
any mention of this in the TAF for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The Subtropical ridge centered over the TX/NM border this morning
extends northward into Canada.  This center of this high will slowly
shift west the next few days as a large upper trough deepens over
the Eastern U.S.  This will allow for slightly cooler temps to
return to the region with increasing rain chances.

Have had storms over NE NM and the Panhandle most of the night which
have put out a good outflow reinforcing a weak front moving into
northern CWA as of 08z.  Thunderstorm development between Fort
Davis and Pine Springs has been on the increase and these may
continue until morning.  Latest MAF sounding had PW back to near
1.25 inches so locally could have some good rainfall for those
lucky enough to get rain.  The front should not make it too far
into the area before stalling out and trying to lift back to the
north Tuesday.  Not expecting much of a wind shift with the front
but surface wind should become easterly today across the area.

Had another unusually warm night with midnight temps generally in
the 80s but had 90 at Presidio and 91 at Carlsbad.  Also had more
clouds over the western half of the area that was slowing cooling.
There have been 6 days of 100 degrees during July at MAF but all
have been in the last 8 days.  Will cancel heat advisory for along
the Rio Grande with morning forecast issuance as highs today should
be 100 to 103 along the Rio Grande.  Highs for most of the rest of
the area should return to the upper 90s.  Highs across the Permian
Basin could briefly return to near 100 again on Wednesday.  Another
front looks to blow through the area Wednesday late afternoon or early
evening with a gusty north wind which will be unusually strong for
the middle of summer.  This will bring below normal temps to the region
for a few days with guidance trying to push highs down into the 80s
by the weekend.  Kept forecast on the warm side of guidance.

Rain chances will increase Wednesday and Thursday with the second front.
Will leave the widespread low pops in the extended... expect pops to
increase for some of these days as they get closer.  Current long
range GFS looks very wet for Saturday but still a long ways out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  72  97  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              96  71  97  72  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                98  73  98  73  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  98  76  98  74  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  73  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          90  69  89  71  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   94  71  95  71  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   90  60  89  61  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    98  73  97  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  97  73  97  76  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   101  75 101  75  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/72
510
FXUS64 KMAF 281120
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
620 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. A front continues to slowly sink south
toward HOB this morning and may finally make it near MAF by late
morning. Expect strong easterly winds at both HOB and MAF through
the afternoon. Elsewhere, SE winds are expected to increase
throughout the morning then diminish after sunset. Could see some
isolated convection develop along/near the front this afternoon and
evening, possibly affecting HOB, CNM and MAF but will hold off on
any mention of this in the TAF for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The Subtropical ridge centered over the TX/NM border this morning
extends northward into Canada.  This center of this high will slowly
shift west the next few days as a large upper trough deepens over
the Eastern U.S.  This will allow for slightly cooler temps to
return to the region with increasing rain chances.

Have had storms over NE NM and the Panhandle most of the night which
have put out a good outflow reinforcing a weak front moving into
northern CWA as of 08z.  Thunderstorm development between Fort
Davis and Pine Springs has been on the increase and these may
continue until morning.  Latest MAF sounding had PW back to near
1.25 inches so locally could have some good rainfall for those
lucky enough to get rain.  The front should not make it too far
into the area before stalling out and trying to lift back to the
north Tuesday.  Not expecting much of a wind shift with the front
but surface wind should become easterly today across the area.

Had another unusually warm night with midnight temps generally in
the 80s but had 90 at Presidio and 91 at Carlsbad.  Also had more
clouds over the western half of the area that was slowing cooling.
There have been 6 days of 100 degrees during July at MAF but all
have been in the last 8 days.  Will cancel heat advisory for along
the Rio Grande with morning forecast issuance as highs today should
be 100 to 103 along the Rio Grande.  Highs for most of the rest of
the area should return to the upper 90s.  Highs across the Permian
Basin could briefly return to near 100 again on Wednesday.  Another
front looks to blow through the area Wednesday late afternoon or early
evening with a gusty north wind which will be unusually strong for
the middle of summer.  This will bring below normal temps to the region
for a few days with guidance trying to push highs down into the 80s
by the weekend.  Kept forecast on the warm side of guidance.

Rain chances will increase Wednesday and Thursday with the second front.
Will leave the widespread low pops in the extended... expect pops to
increase for some of these days as they get closer.  Current long
range GFS looks very wet for Saturday but still a long ways out.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27
505
FXUS64 KMAF 280855
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
355 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The Subtropical ridge centered over the TX/NM border this morning
extends northward into Canada.  This center of this high will slowly
shift west the next few days as a large upper trough deepens over
the Eastern U.S.  This will allow for slightly cooler temps to
return to the region with increasing rain chances.

Have had storms over NE NM and the Panhandle most of the night which
have put out a good outflow reinforcing a weak front moving into
northern CWA as of 08z.  Thunderstorm development between Fort
Davis and Pine Springs has been on the increase and these may
continue until morning.  Latest MAF sounding had PW back to near
1.25 inches so locally could have some good rainfall for those
lucky enough to get rain.  The front should not make it too far
into the area before stalling out and trying to lift back to the
north Tuesday.  Not expecting much of a wind shift with the front
but surface wind should become easterly today across the area.

Had another unusually warm night with midnight temps generally in
the 80s but had 90 at Presidio and 91 at Carlsbad.  Also had more
clouds over the western half of the area that was slowing cooling.
There have been 6 days of 100 degrees during July at MAF but all
have been in the last 8 days.  Will cancel heat advisory for along
the Rio Grande with morning forecast issuance as highs today should
be 100 to 103 along the Rio Grande.  Highs for most of the rest of
the area should return to the upper 90s.  Highs across the Permian
Basin could briefly return to near 100 again on Wednesday.  Another
front looks to blow through the area Wednesday late afternoon or early
evening with a gusty north wind which will be unusually strong for
the middle of summer.  This will bring below normal temps to the region
for a few days with guidance trying to push highs down into the 80s
by the weekend.  Kept forecast on the warm side of guidance.

Rain chances will increase Wednesday and Thursday with the second front.
Will leave the widespread low pops in the extended... expect pops to
increase for some of these days as they get closer.  Current long
range GFS looks very wet for Saturday but still a long ways out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  72  97  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              96  71  97  72  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                98  73  98  73  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  98  76  98  74  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  73  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          90  69  89  71  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   94  71  95  71  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   90  60  89  61  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    98  73  97  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  97  73  97  76  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   101  75 101  75  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/72
060
FXUS64 KMAF 280522
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Currently have E/SE winds area wide
tonight however a front, now moving south through LBB, may reach
HOB around 28/12Z (given the front maintains its current speed),
briefly shifting winds to the NE. SE winds are expected to
increase throughout the morning as the front stalls just north of
the terminals. Therefore will maintain strong SE winds through
Monday afternoon at all sites. Could see some convection develop
along/near the front Monday evening, possibly affecting HOB, CNM and
MAF but will hold off on any mention of this in the TAF for now.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014/

Not many changes to the current forecast. WV imagery shows an
elongated upper ridge centered just north of West Texas/SE NM,
allowing for another day of widespread triple-digit temps across
the area. At the sfc, a weak front/boundary lies across the S.
Plains, w/return flow to the south. A dense cu field has developed
over the mtns, and upslope flow this afternoon/evening will focus
isolated chances of convection there.

Monday, thicknesses begin decreasing, and should drop temps area-
wide by about a category Monday and Tuesday afternoons.
Aforementioned front may make it into SE NM and the Western Low
Rolling Plains, and be the focus of isolated convection along a
zone of low lvl convergence as depicted by the 12Z NAM. Wednesday,
strong return flow resumes as a leeside sfc trough drifts south
into the area. Models show a spike in thicknesses across the area,
and afternoon temps may reach the century mark one more time for
this forecast.

Late Wednesday night/Thursday morning, models bring a stronger
cold front thru the region. Front may hang up during the day a
little, but models take it to the Rio Grande by 12Z Friday. Along
w/isolated-slight chances of rain w/the front, temps Thu afternoon
should top out right around normal, and below-normal Friday,
w/models forecasting H85 temps ranging near 20C NE to under 30C
SW. Long-range models are similar on temps, but much will also
depend on extent of cloud cover/rain. Temps begin coming back up
Saturday, but models hint at another front Saturday night, for
below-normal temps again Sunday.

During this time, models really moisten the column up, w/PWATs
increasing to 1.5-2" by Saturday. The GFS raises PWATs at KMAF to
around 1.9" Saturday...about 3 std devs above normal.  Thus, the
potential for heavy rainfall will be there over the weekend as
models bring disturbances thru the east side of the ridge. For
now, we`ll continue a low-POP shotgun approach, as this is too far
out to accurately hone in on triggers.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

27
266
FXUS64 KMAF 272302
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms should decrease in coverage around sunset, or shortly
thereafter.  VFR conditions will prevail throughout the next 24
hours at all southeast New Mexico and West Texas.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014/

Not many changes to the current forecast. WV imagery shows an
elongated upper ridge centered just north of West Texas/SE NM,
allowing for another day of widespread triple-digit temps across
the area. At the sfc, a weak front/boundary lies across the S.
Plains, w/return flow to the south. A dense cu field has developed
over the mtns, and upslope flow this afternoon/evening will focus
isolated chances of convection there.

Monday, thicknesses begin decreasing, and should drop temps area-
wide by about a category Monday and Tuesday afternoons.
Aforementioned front may make it into SE NM and the Western Low
Rolling Plains, and be the focus of isolated convection along a
zone of low lvl convergence as depicted by the 12Z NAM. Wednesday,
strong return flow resumes as a leeside sfc trough drifts south
into the area. Models show a spike in thicknesses across the area,
and afternoon temps may reach the century mark one more time for
this forecast.

Late Wednesday night/Thursday morning, models bring a stronger
cold front thru the region. Front may hang up during the day a
little, but models take it to the Rio Grande by 12Z Friday. Along
w/isolated-slight chances of rain w/the front, temps Thu afternoon
should top out right around normal, and below-normal Friday,
w/models forecasting H85 temps ranging near 20C NE to under 30C
SW. Long-range models are similar on temps, but much will also
depend on extent of cloud cover/rain. Temps begin coming back up
Saturday, but models hint at another front Saturday night, for
below-normal temps again Sunday.

During this time, models really moisten the column up, w/PWATs
increasing to 1.5-2" by Saturday. The GFS raises PWATs at KMAF to
around 1.9" Saturday...about 3 std devs above normal.  Thus, the
potential for heavy rainfall will be there over the weekend as
models bring disturbances thru the east side of the ridge. For
now, we`ll continue a low-POP shotgun approach, as this is too far
out to accurately hone in on triggers.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

99
488
FXUS64 KMAF 272002
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
302 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows an
elongated upper ridge centered just north of West Texas/SE NM,
allowing for another day of widespread triple-digit temps across
the area. At the sfc, a weak front/boundary lies across the S.
Plains, w/return flow to the south. A dense cu field has developed
omtns, and upslope flow this afternoon/evening will focus isolated
chances of convection there.

Monday, thicknesses begin decreasing, and should drop temps area-
wide by about a category Monday and Tuesday afternoons.
Aforementioned front may make it into SE NM and the Western Low
Rolling Plains, and be the focus of isolated convection along a
zone of low lvl convergence as depicted by the 12Z NAM. Wednesday,
strong return flow resumes as a leeside sfc trough drifts south
into the area. Models show a spike in thicknesses across the area,
and afternoon temps may reach the century mark one more time for
this forecast.

Late Wednesday night/Thursday morning, models bring a stronger
cold front thru the region. Front may hang up during the day a
little, but models take it to the Rio Grande by 12Z Friday. Along
w/isolated-slight chances of rain w/the front, temps Thu afternoon
should top out right around normal, and below-normal Friday,
w/models forecasting H85 temps ranging near 20C NE to under 30C
SW. Long-range models are similar on temps, but much will also
depend on extent of cloud cover/rain. Temps begin coming back up
Saturday, but models hint at another front Saturday night, for
below-normal temps again Sunday.

During this time, models really moisten the column up, w/PWATs
increasing to 1.5-2" by Saturday. The GFS raises PWATs at KMAF to
around 1.9" Saturday...about 3 std devs above normal.  Thus, the
potential for heavy rainfall will be there over the weekend as
models bring disturbances thru the east side of the ridge. For
now, we`ll continue a low-POP shotgun approach, as this is too far
out to accurately hone in on triggers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  96  71  96  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  94  71  95  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                73  97  75  97  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  74  97  74  97  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           74  97  71  97  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  91  69  88  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   72  95  69  93  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   63  89  59  88  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  98  73  96  /   0  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  73  97  73  96  /   0  10  10  10
WINK TX                    74 100  74 100  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

12/44
358
FXUS64 KMAF 271708
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1208 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under mostly clear
skies. Winds will generally be east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph
with some gusts this afternoon and early this evening.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Southeast winds will become somewhat
gusty this afternoon, at all but CNM and maybe even HOB, then
diminish after sunset.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge responsible for the hot wx and remains the dominate wx
feature.  This ridge was centered from the 4 corners region eastward
across the Red River to LA.  The ridge will shift westward over the
next couple of days with the axis extending up across the Rockies as
an upper trough deepens over the Eastern U.S.   As the center of
this ridge moves westward... NW flow aloft will allow disturbances
to move into the region late in the week helping rain chances.

Unseasonably hot temps will continue across the region today...
especially over the Pecos and Rio Grande valleys.  850mb temps
across the Permian Basin will be very warm again today around 28C/82F
and slowly cool next couple of days.  Expect another day of 100
degree temps for most of the area.  Yesterday Dryden hit 105 degrees
and a station in the Big Bend hit 105 too.  Will extend the heat
advisory for Brewster and Terrell counties along the Rio Grande
another day.  The Presidio valley will be close to advisory
conditions but will not include at this time.  Nighttime temps will
continue to be very warm as dewpts in the 50s and 60s along with a
steady nocturnal wind keep temps up.  At midnight it was still 89
degrees in Presidio and 92 at Dryden.

Models have been showing a boundary moving down into the northern
CWA Monday but this may actually be a weak front as it has a
thermal/pressure gradient with it.  This feature lifts northward
Tuesday.  On Thursday it appears another front will move into the
area with models trying to push it all the way to Mexico.  This will
increase rain chances and give a break from the recent hot wx.
Latest MEX long range guidance calling for highs in the 80s now
Thursday and Friday... will stay above that for now.

Even with the ridge did have more afternoon clouds Saturday south of
the Pecos river and should see these again this afternoon.  Had a
few late afternoon storms skirt the Big Bend yesterday and model qpf
shows could have that again today so have expanded the isold pops
from the Davis Mtns south to the Rio Grande and northward to GDP.
On Monday models develop rain along the boundary/front across the
Permian Basin during the afternoon and evening... and to a lesser
extent on Tuesday.  Could be a few storms over the higher elevations
on Wednesday but a better shot of rain begins Thursday and Friday
when the front returns and may have some upper support.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  95  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  75  94  74  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               102  72  99  71  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 104  77 101  75  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          101  74  99  73  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          94  69  92  68  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                  100  71  95  70  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   92  64  90  60  /  20  20  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  74  98  73  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                 102  74  98  73  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                   104  73 102  72  /  10   0  10  10




.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

27/72
904
FXUS64 KMAF 271111
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
611 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Southeast winds will become somewhat
gusty this afternoon, at all but CNM and maybe even HOB, then
diminish after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge responsible for the hot wx and remains the dominate wx
feature.  This ridge was centered from the 4 corners region eastward
across the Red River to LA.  The ridge will shift westward over the
next couple of days with the axis extending up across the Rockies as
an upper trough deepens over the Eastern U.S.   As the center of
this ridge moves westward... NW flow aloft will allow disturbances
to move into the region late in the week helping rain chances.

Unseasonably hot temps will continue across the region today...
especially over the Pecos and Rio Grande valleys.  850mb temps
across the Permian Basin will be very warm again today around 28C/82F
and slowly cool next couple of days.  Expect another day of 100
degree temps for most of the area.  Yesterday Dryden hit 105 degrees
and a station in the Big Bend hit 105 too.  Will extend the heat
advisory for Brewster and Terrell counties along the Rio Grande
another day.  The Presidio valley will be close to advisory
conditions but will not include at this time.  Nighttime temps will
continue to be very warm as dewpts in the 50s and 60s along with a
steady nocturnal wind keep temps up.  At midnight it was still 89
degrees in Presidio and 92 at Dryden.

Models have been showing a boundary moving down into the northern
CWA Monday but this may actually be a weak front as it has a
thermal/pressure gradient with it.  This feature lifts northward
Tuesday.  On Thursday it appears another front will move into the
area with models trying to push it all the way to Mexico.  This will
increase rain chances and give a break from the recent hot wx.
Latest MEX long range guidance calling for highs in the 80s now
Thursday and Friday... will stay above that for now.

Even with the ridge did have more afternoon clouds Saturday south of
the Pecos river and should see these again this afternoon.  Had a
few late afternoon storms skirt the Big Bend yesterday and model qpf
shows could have that again today so have expanded the isold pops
from the Davis Mtns south to the Rio Grande and northward to GDP.
On Monday models develop rain along the boundary/front across the
Permian Basin during the afternoon and evening... and to a lesser
extent on Tuesday.  Could be a few storms over the higher elevations
on Wednesday but a better shot of rain begins Thursday and Friday
when the front returns and may have some upper support.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

27
306
FXUS64 KMAF 270904
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
404 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge responsible for the hot wx and remains the dominate wx
feature.  This ridge was centered from the 4 corners region eastward
across the Red River to LA.  The ridge will shift westward over the
next couple of days with the axis extending up across the Rockies as
an upper trough deepens over the Eastern U.S.   As the center of
this ridge moves westward... NW flow aloft will allow disturbances
to move into the region late in the week helping rain chances.

Unseasonably hot temps will continue across the region today...
especially over the Pecos and Rio Grande valleys.  850mb temps
across the Permian Basin will be very warm again today around 28C/82F
and slowly cool next couple of days.  Expect another day of 100
degree temps for most of the area.  Yesterday Dryden hit 105 degrees
and a station in the Big Bend hit 105 too.  Will extend the heat
advisory for Brewster and Terrell counties along the Rio Grande
another day.  The Presidio valley will be close to advisory
conditions but will not include at this time.  Nighttime temps will
continue to be very warm as dewpts in the 50s and 60s along with a
steady nocturnal wind keep temps up.  At midnight it was still 89
degrees in Presidio and 92 at Dryden.

Models have been showing a boundary moving down into the northern
CWA Monday but this may actually be a weak front as it has a
thermal/pressure gradient with it.  This feature lifts northward
Tuesday.  On Thursday it appears another front will move into the
area with models trying to push it all the way to Mexico.  This will
increase rain chances and give a break from the recent hot wx.
Latest MEX long range guidance calling for highs in the 80s now
Thursday and Friday... will stay above that for now.

Even with the ridge did have more afternoon clouds Saturday south of
the Pecos river and should see these again this afternoon.  Had a
few late afternoon storms skirt the Big Bend yesterday and model qpf
shows could have that again today so have expanded the isold pops
from the Davis Mtns south to the Rio Grande and northward to GDP.
On Monday models develop rain along the boundary/front across the
Permian Basin during the afternoon and evening... and to a lesser
extent on Tuesday.  Could be a few storms over the higher elevations
on Wednesday but a better shot of rain begins Thursday and Friday
when the front returns and may have some upper support.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  95  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  75  94  74  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               102  72  99  71  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 104  77 101  75  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          101  74  99  73  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          94  69  92  68  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                  100  71  95  70  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   92  64  90  60  /  20  20  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  74  98  73  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                 102  74  98  73  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                   104  73 102  72  /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

27/72
180
FXUS64 KMAF 270507
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Currently have southeast winds
generally 10-12kt sustained, although slightly stronger (15kt) at
PEQ and FST where gusts persist as well. These gusts are expected to
diminish over the next few hours then wind speeds pick up once again
Sunday afternoon at all but CNM.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Ely mid level flow continues across the area (12Z MAF sounding)
with subtropical ridge centered INVOF central NM. Only shot for
isold shra/tsra today is in/around the Davis Mtns with water
showing drying/subsidence across the CWFA. As early as Sun PM the
ridge will start build to the nw. 85h temps will still be warm
U20s-N30C and so high temps will still be around 100. NAM12 is
again optimistically developing precip from Davis-GDP Mtns Sun PM.
Grids already have isold PoPs and will make no change to that. 85h
temps do trend down about 1C Mon, but 5h heights of 595 dam
indicate it will still be hot. A surface boundary still looks to
straddle the nrn CWFA Mon PM and may serve as a focus for tstms
for the nrn tier. NAM12 continues with the "wettest" trend among
the models. Dwpnts will be hier in wake of boundary and instability
is better there too. This with daytime may result in tstms INVOF
boundary. Needless to say boundary position will be final determinant.
We still have isold/slght chc PoPs across the far n and will make
little change for now. Tue there is a shrtwv trof in the nw flow
however NAM12 is outlier being farther s across the S Plains. As
such it develops precip farthest s. There is a general consensus
that a nw-se axis of precip that is favored and it catches n-ne
CWFA. Only changes that we will make is to bring isold PoPS just
a little father s. 85h temps will have cooled to N25C across PB,
still U20S C across the sw-w. A broad sfc low will develop SE-E
NM Wed and a low level thermal ridge will build along the sfc trof
axis, thus hotter on Wed. ECMWF continues to be quickest with
fropa Thur. A front and nw mid level flow should be a good combo
for precip, but timing issues are yet resolved. Will trend PoPs up
some and farther s Thur-Fri. The wetter 00Z/12Z GFS make more sense
than drier ECMWF as the nw flow aloft persist, but will be dependent
on theta-e ridge, shrtwv trof/s, etc.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

27
903
FXUS64 KMAF 262235
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
535 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
No aviation problems expected as VFR conditions continue at all
terminals through Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Ely mid level flow continues across the area (12Z MAF sounding)
with subtropical ridge centered INVOF central NM. Only shot for
isold shra/tsra today is in/around the Davis Mtns with water
showing drying/subsidence across the CWFA. As early as Sun PM the
ridge will start build to the nw. 85h temps will still be warm
U20s-N30C and so high temps will still be around 100. NAM12 is
again optimistically developing precip from Davis-GDP Mtns Sun PM.
Grids already have isold PoPs and will make no change to that. 85h
temps do trend down about 1C Mon, but 5h heights of 595 dam
indicate it will still be hot. A surface boundary still looks to
straddle the nrn CWFA Mon PM and may serve as a focus for tstms
for the nrn tier. NAM12 continues with the "wettest" trend among
the models. Dwpnts will be hier in wake of boundary and instability
is better there too. This with daytime may result in tstms INVOF
boundary. Needless to say boundary position will be final determinant.
We still have isold/slght chc PoPs across the far n and will make
little change for now. Tue there is a shrtwv trof in the nw flow
however NAM12 is outlier being farther s across the S Plains. As
such it develops precip farthest s. There is a general consensus
that a nw-se axis of precip that is favored and it catches n-ne
CWFA. Only changes that we will make is to bring isold PoPS just
a little father s. 85h temps will have cooled to N25C across PB,
still U20S C across the sw-w. A broad sfc low will develop SE-E
NM Wed and a low level thermal ridge will build along the sfc trof
axis, thus hotter on Wed. ECMWF continues to be quickest with
fropa Thur. A front and nw mid level flow should be a good combo
for precip, but timing issues are yet resolved. Will trend PoPs up
some and farther s Thur-Fri. The wetter 00Z/12Z GFS make more sense
than drier ECMWF as the nw flow aloft persist, but will be dependent
on theta-e ridge, shrtwv trof/s, etc.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

29
889
FXUS64 KMAF 261925
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
225 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Ely mid level flow continues across the area (12Z MAF sounding)
with subtropical ridge centered INVOF central NM. Only shot for
isold shra/tsra today is in/around the Davis Mtns with water
showing drying/subsidence across the CWFA. As early as Sun PM the
ridge will start build to the nw. 85h temps will still be warm
U20s-N30C and so high temps will still be around 100. NAM12 is
again optimistically developing precip from Davis-GDP Mtns Sun PM.
Grids already have isold PoPs and will make no change to that. 85h
temps do trend down about 1C Mon, but 5h heights of 595 dam
indicate it will still be hot. A surface boundary still looks to
straddle the nrn CWFA Mon PM and may serve as a focus for tstms
for the nrn tier. NAM12 continues with the "wettest" trend among
the models. Dwpnts will be hier in wake of boundary and instability
is better there too. This with daytime may result in tstms INVOF
boundary. Needless to say boundary position will be final determinant.
We still have isold/slght chc PoPs across the far n and will make
little change for now. Tue there is a shrtwv trof in the nw flow
however NAM12 is outlier being farther s across the S Plains. As
such it develops precip farthest s. There is a general consensus
that a nw-se axis of precip that is favored and it catches n-ne
CWFA. Only changes that we will make is to bring isold PoPS just
a little father s. 85h temps will have cooled to N25C across PB,
still U20S C across the sw-w. A broad sfc low will develop SE-E
NM Wed and a low level thermal ridge will build along the sfc trof
axis, thus hotter on Wed. ECMWF continues to be quickest with
fropa Thur. A front and nw mid level flow should be a good combo
for precip, but timing issues are yet resolved. Will trend PoPs up
some and farther s Thur-Fri. The wetter 00Z/12Z GFS make more sense
than drier ECMWF as the nw flow aloft persist, but will be dependent
on theta-e ridge, shrtwv trof/s, etc.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  97  73  93  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              76 101  75  92  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                70 100  74  97  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77 104  77 100  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  98  72  97  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   70  97  70  93  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   62  90  63  87  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  99  73  96  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  76  98  74  96  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    73 100  73  98  /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.

&&

$$
515
FXUS64 KMAF 261550
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1050 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours under an upper ridge
centered north of the region.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over NM... TX... and OK this morning will shift
west as an upper trough digs over the eastern part of the country.
Ridge does not actually move away from the area as 594 heights hang
around next several days but the ridge axis builds northward along the
Rockies into Canada.  Overall expect warm temperatures to continue
next several days with temps decreasing late next week as heights
fall.

Will be another hot day today with subsidence from the ridge and
near unrestricted insolation pushing temps to near 100.  Should see
a slight increase in 850mb temps through the weekend but guidance
actually wants to cool temps a couple degrees Sunday.   The Heat
Advisory in effect for Brewster and Terrell counties looks
marginal... Sanderson should not reach needed criteria however could
see temps near 105 degrees right along the Rio Grande so will leave
in effect for today and tonight.  Expect above normal temperatures to
continue through Monday with near normal readings by Tuesday.
Overnight temps have been slow to fall off this morning as wind
stayed up.  Lows for the past week across the Permian Basin have not
been able to drop below the 70s.

Will have possibility of a few storm over the Davis Mtns this
afternoon and Sunday afternoon.  However models show a weak boundary
sagging into northern CWA Monday staying there Tuesday before
lifting back to the north.  Boundary gets forced back into the area
by Friday.  It appears this boundary will be dependent on convection
to the north to push it into the region.  This boundary may also
become a focus for storm development.  Will keep low pops mainly
north each day.  Increased cloud cover will also help lower temps
toward next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

44
279
FXUS64 KMAF 261052
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
552 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all TAF sites. Southeast winds around 10-12kt
sustained through tonight with some higher gusts at MAF and
FST this afternoon and evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over NM... TX... and OK this morning will shift
west as an upper trough digs over the eastern part of the country.
Ridge does not actually move away from the area as 594 heights hang
around next several days but the ridge axis builds northward along the
Rockies into Canada.  Overall expect warm temperatures to continue
next several days with temps decreasing late next week as heights
fall.

Will be another hot day today with subsidence from the ridge and
near unrestricted insolation pushing temps to near 100.  Should see
a slight increase in 850mb temps through the weekend but guidance
actually wants to cool temps a couple degrees Sunday.   The Heat
Advisory in effect for Brewster and Terrell counties looks
marginal... Sanderson should not reach needed criteria however could
see temps near 105 degrees right along the Rio Grande so will leave
in effect for today and tonight.  Expect above normal temperatures to
continue through Monday with near normal readings by Tuesday.
Overnight temps have been slow to fall off this morning as wind
stayed up.  Lows for the past week across the Permian Basin have not
been able to drop below the 70s.

Will have possibility of a few storm over the Davis Mtns this
afternoon and Sunday afternoon.  However models show a weak boundary
sagging into northern CWA Monday staying there Tuesday before
lifting back to the north.  Boundary gets forced back into the area
by Friday.  It appears this boundary will be dependent on convection
to the north to push it into the region.  This boundary may also
become a focus for storm development.  Will keep low pops mainly
north each day.  Increased cloud cover will also help lower temps
toward next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

27
957
FXUS64 KMAF 260824
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
324 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over NM... TX... and OK this morning will shift
west as an upper trough digs over the eastern part of the country.
Ridge does not actually move away from the area as 594 heights hang
around next several days but the ridge axis builds northward along the
Rockies into Canada.  Overall expect warm temperatures to continue
next several days with temps decreasing late next week as heights
fall.

Will be another hot day today with subsidence from the ridge and
near unrestricted insolation pushing temps to near 100.  Should see
a slight increase in 850mb temps through the weekend but guidance
actually wants to cool temps a couple degrees Sunday.   The Heat
Advisory in effect for Brewster and Terrell counties looks
marginal... Sanderson should not reach needed criteria however could
see temps near 105 degrees right along the Rio Grande so will leave
in effect for today and tonight.  Expect above normal temperatures to
continue through Monday with near normal readings by Tuesday.
Overnight temps have been slow to fall off this morning as wind
stayed up.  Lows for the past week across the Permian Basin have not
been able to drop below the 70s.

Will have possibility of a few storm over the Davis Mtns this
afternoon and Sunday afternoon.  However models show a weak boundary
sagging into northern CWA Monday staying there Tuesday before
lifting back to the north.  Boundary gets forced back into the area
by Friday.  It appears this boundary will be dependent on convection
to the north to push it into the region.  This boundary may also
become a focus for storm development.  Will keep low pops mainly
north each day.  Increased cloud cover will also help lower temps
toward next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  72  99  71  /   0  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  75 100  74  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM               102  71 100  72  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  76 102  75  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          100  73  97  72  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          94  70  92  69  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   99  69  98  69  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   93  62  91  63  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   100  73  99  72  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                 100  73  98  72  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                   102  74  99  73  /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

27/72
086
FXUS64 KMAF 260504
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1204 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Southeast winds around 10-12kt
sustained through Saturday night with some higher gusts at MAF and
FST during the afternoon hours.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The subtropical ridge extends w-e from NM into OK leaving MAF`s CWFA
in ely mid level flow aloft. Water vapor reveals absence of
identifiable shrtwv trof and with lack of a sfc boundary there is
little opportunity for shra/tsra today. Sat-Sun there will be
little sensible wx change, just hot. 85h temps from around 28C
across the PB to 31C across SE NM will continue to support high
temps from the U90s to L100s. Hottest along parts of the Rio
Grande, especially from Big Bend to Terrell Co where high temps
are right at 105 and lows in the mid/upper 70s, thus continuation
of heat advisory there. Amplification of mid level ridge farther
nw and ern U.S. trof signal a pattern transition to NW flow aloft
by Tue/Wed. There`s a good chance that a weak boundary will be
across the nrn CWFA Monday. Mid level theta-e ridge, hier sfc
mstr, and better SB instability will be n of the boundary.
Forecast already has low probability PoPs across the n and this
still looks good based on latest data. Shrtwv trof within NW Wed
along with convection will push a boundary into W TX plains, but
staying n of CWFA until Thur. Based on boundary and NW flow
Thur/Fri would seem to most favored days for precip at this point.
Still too far out to commit to any hier PoPs than are in the
forecast. Higher likelihood is that temps will cool off to below
normal Thur/Fr.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

27

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.