Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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895
FXUS64 KMAF 232244
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
544 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with southeasterly winds will continue through the
forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Saturday...Sounding like a broken
record this month...another hot day with above normal
temperatures across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. As of
2:00 pm CDT the temperature at MAF has reached 98 degrees.

Vis imagery does show a CU field over San Angelo`s CWA progressing
west in the low/mid level flow...however Water Vapor imagery
shows the atmosphere basically bone dry in the mid levels over
Central Texas west into Southeast New Mexico. With the subtropical
ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle southwest into Southeast
New Mexico there is subsidence over the CWA. In these conditions
it would be very difficult for any convection to get going.

The subtropical ridge will slowly retrograde to the four corners
region of the US by Tuesday. Lowering heights and H85 temps will
allow temperatures to drop a few degrees. By Monday...subsidence
will decrease with the thetae ridge edging closer. This could lead
to thunderstorms over the higher terrain...which will also be
aided by upslope flow and intense heating.

An inverted trof over the Southeast US and Gulf of Mexico
will move slowly west into South Texas by Tuesday...and will
slowly translate west across the southern portions of the state
Tuesday/Wednesday. This will give the CWA its best chance of more
widespread thunderstorm activity...even into the Plains along
with temperature dropping to near normal.

After the inverted trof passes to the west the subtropical ridge
will reassert itself over the area. This will lead to temps near
to a couple of degrees above normal along with thunderstorm
chances confined to the higher terrain.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77 100  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       72 104  73  99 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         78 103  79 101 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  74 100  75  97 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 72  96  71  90 /   0  10  10  20
Hobbs                          70  98  70  95 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                          64  96  67  92 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           75 101  76  98 /   0  10   0  10
Odessa                         76 100  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
Wink                           75 102  76 100 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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