Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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106
FXUS64 KMAF 221018
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
418 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CST Monday...A taste of winter will be
coming to West Texas and Southeast New Mexico tonight.

Water vapor imagery and GOES High Density winds are showing a
shortwave and associated jet max diving southeast through the
Bitterroot/Blue Mtns of Eastern WA and Idaho. This feature will
move rapidly southeast and deepen the trof in the central US.
After another dry day with above normal temps a cold front
associated with the trof will move south into the Southern Plains
tonight. The NAM and especially the ECMWF continue to be wetter
and colder with this system. Rain showers will develop this
evening...mainly north and east of the Pecos River and spread
south overnight. Model fcst soundings indc the precip changing to
snow showers in northern Lea County after midnight...with a mix of
rain/snow showers in the Northwest Permian Basin down to a
Hobbs/Carlsbad line. With the ground warm would not expect any
snow accumulation on roadways...but there could be a dusting on
grassy surfaces and overpasses in Northern Lea County. The threat
of showers continues on Tuesday...mainly in the morning. Showers
could make as far south as the Davis Mtns but the Rio Grande
Valley and most of Big Bend will remain dry. Forecast soundings
indc it could be cold enough Tue morning for a mix of rain/snow
showers down to a Midland/Wink line. It should be cold enough for
snow showers in the higher elevations of the Davis Mtns.

The cold airmass sticks around Tuesday night/Wednesday with lows
mainly in the 20s and aftn highs in the 50s. Dry weather with
above normal temps are expected on Christmas Day as ridging moves
over the Plains. The next shortwave moves from Northern CA into
the Rockies on Friday. Temps on Friday will be tricky and could be
warmer than the current forecast. Another cold front dives south
into the CWA Sat bringing colder temps. The ECMWF is much stronger
than the GFS keeping Sat highs in the 40s to mid 50s with the
threat of showers. For now...have made little change to the
extended keeping the weekend dry with near normal temps. Zonal
flow will keep the CWA dry with mild temps next Sunday and Monday.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 66  34  45  27  /   0  60  40   0
BIG SPRING TX              67  38  46  29  /   0  50  40   0
CARLSBAD NM                69  36  45  24  /   0  30  20   0
DRYDEN TX                  72  41  50  31  /   0  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  39  45  29  /   0  20  40   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  32  39  26  /   0  10  20   0
HOBBS NM                   65  31  44  24  /   0  60  30   0
MARFA TX                   66  36  41  14  /   0  10  20   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  34  46  25  /   0  50  40   0
ODESSA TX                  69  35  46  28  /   0  40  40   0
WINK TX                    72  37  47  26  /   0  40  40   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.


&&

$$

80/33

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