Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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428
FXUS64 KMAF 151912
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
212 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Atmospheric moisture content remains high with mid level theta-e
ridge extending wsw-ene across the area and today PWs are about
125% of normal. Precip will be mostly confined to the far w-sw
CWFA due to closer proximity of rich moisture and source region
for shrtwv trof within the deep sly flow between Odile and ridging
to the e. A cold front moving into Panhandle will slowly move s
overnight arriving in the nrn PB just before 12Z. By 18Z Tue the
front will be near coincident with mid level theta-e ridge (INVOF
I-20). Low level convergence looks to be maximized around 18Z Tue
along the front and SHRA/TSRA may develop well before 18Z. 12Z
METMOS has come in wet from HOB...MAF...BPG. It`s hard to discern
shrtwv trof INVOF front so will not go as high as METMOS PoPs, but
will keep chance PoPs going. By early Wed morning a shrtwv trof
will be across far W TX and with renewed low level mstr transport
SHRA/TSRA are again expected. Ensemble NAEFS/GEFS data suggest PWs
will be anomalously high (150% of normal) and heavy rain will be a
concern, especially across the higher terrain of GDP/Delaware
Mtns, but also parts of SE NM in evening hrs. Will opt to ramp up
PoPs across the w Wed PM/Wed night with heavy rain wording. Meanwhile
the remnants of Odile will get caught up in sw mid level flow by
Thur AM. Although the remnant circulation will remain to the nw of
the CWFA a rich mid level theta-e ridge axis will move across much
of the area Thur PM and low level mstr transport will increase
early with general lift indicated in OMEGA/Q vector fields. Thus
precip will be favored to continue. SE NM again looks to be the
favored area, including heavy rain. Flash flood watches may
eventually be needed from Culberson into the SE NM. Precip will
have a good chance to continue even into Friday as shearing
vorticity axis remains to the w or slowly moves across. There are
big differences in models Sat/Sun as GFS brings a front in Sat
evening/ECMWF Sun PM, but models continue to develop precip along
the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  77  67  74  /  30  50  20  50
BIG SPRING TX              69  81  69  79  /  20  50  20  40
CARLSBAD NM                67  75  68  75  /  30  40  30  50
DRYDEN TX                  71  86  72  86  /  20  10  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  80  68  81  /  20  10  20  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  72  60  70  /  30  50  50  50
HOBBS NM                   64  76  64  74  /  30  50  20  50
MARFA TX                   60  76  61  76  /  30  40  20  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  81  69  78  /  20  40  20  40
ODESSA TX                  67  80  69  77  /  20  40  20  40
WINK TX                    68  80  70  81  /  30  20  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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