Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Next Version | Current Version | All | Graphics & Text | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

929
FXUS64 KMAF 191921
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
221 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over West Texas, courtesy
of a west coast trough trying to muscle in thru Baja.  Yesterday, a
MCS developed in N central NM and moved SSE, but died out before
making it into SE NM.  Current models attempt to replicate this
scenario tonight, but suggest the MCS might make it a little further
SE.  Otherwise, at the sfc, a trough extended from SW NM ESE down
into the Big Bend, and will serve as the focus of isolated
convection for the next couple of days as abundant diurnal heating
combines w/minor disturbances moving down thru the ridge.  Sfc
trough is forecast to orient more N-S Sunday and Monday, and remain
over the western half of the CWA.  Forecast soundings look too warm
for much hail development, but inverted-V profiles suggest strong
winds will remain a threat.  In addition, KMAF 12Z raob came in w/a
PWAT of 1.31"...about 130% of normal.  Given nil steering flow under
the ridge, heavy rain will be possible as well.

Models dissolve the sfc trough by Tuesday and begin moving the upper
ridge NNW over the next week to the Four Corners vicinity.  While
this will spare West Texas/SE NM the worst of the heat, the thermal
ridge will still push H85 temps towards 30C, for widespread
triple-digits by Tuesday or so, and continuing into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 74  97  72  97  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  99  71  98  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                73  98  71  98  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  75  98  73  96  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           74  99  73  98  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          73  88  73  89  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   70  92  68  96  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   62  89  64  89  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  98  72  98  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  74  97  73  98  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    75  98  73 101  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/44

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.