Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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887
FXUS64 KMAF 151002
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
401 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough will begin to move over the central conus today with
a portion of the trough lagging behind.  Temperatures are expected
to warm up even further this afternoon to near normal as surface
winds shift toward south and west and 850 mb temps warm.  A cold
front associated with the upper trough over the Upper Midwest is
expected to push into the area Saturday night/Sunday morning.  Lift
will increase over the area as the upper trough moves overhead so
there will be a slight chance of precipitation across southeast New
Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains, and the northern Permian Basin
Sunday afternoon.  Expect the precipitation to be in the form of a
rain/snow mix since temperatures will be dropping through the
afternoon to near freezing.  The precipitation will shift further
south into the CWA Sunday night into Monday morning and change over
to all snow as temperatures drop to below freezing for a good
portion of the area.  Not much accumulation is expected.
Temperatures will remain chilly on Monday as a result of the surface
ridge to the east of the area.  The precipitation is expected to be
over with by Monday afternoon.

On Tuesday, the region will be on the backside of the upper trough
and surface winds will shift to the south.  Temperatures will warm
slightly on Tuesday as a result of this wind shift.  The surface
ridge will move well to the east on Wednesday and a surface trough
is expected to develop.  This will contribute to a good warm up on
Wednesday afternoon.  Additional warming is expected on Thursday as
the surface trough across the area strengthens.  The upper air
pattern between the GFS and ECMWF starts to diverge on Friday but
generally expect conditions to remain dry into next Saturday.  A
cold front appears to move into the area late next week bringing
temperatures down a little.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  32  38  25  /   0   0  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              69  32  36  25  /   0   0  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                72  39  43  25  /   0   0  40  20
DRYDEN TX                  62  43  60  33  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  44  48  28  /   0   0  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  41  47  26  /   0  10  30  20
HOBBS NM                   67  28  36  24  /   0   0  40  20
MARFA TX                   68  38  61  24  /   0   0  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  33  40  25  /   0   0  10  20
ODESSA TX                  68  35  40  25  /   0   0  10  20
WINK TX                    73  37  44  28  /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/80

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