Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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233
FXUS64 KMAF 062249
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
549 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Windy conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals tonight. In addition a few high based thunderstorms
capable of producing brief strong winds and blowing dust are
expected to develop tonight across the region. Confidence however
was not high enough to mention at any of the terminals at this
time. Will continue to monitor this evening and overnight. Windy
conditions will continue Saturday with more isolated thunderstorms
possible across west Texas in the afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

UPDATE...

Will start the wind Advisory at 06/20Z as winds over the Permian
Basin are at 30 mph sustained.

DISCUSSION...

The surface pressure gradient has tightened sufficiently for
sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph over the Permian basin at 06/19Z.
Therefore, will adjust the forecast to begin the Wind Advisory
now. These stronger surface winds will spread northwestward
through 07/00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 206 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

A cutoff low over SoCal today will translate gradually eastward, and
over the next few days, linger west of the region before ejecting
into the southern/central U.S. Plains Sunday/Sunday night.  Height
falls will back low level winds to the southeast, and with the
surface pressure gradient tightening over the region between a
surface ridge over the Gulf Coast states and surface low over SE
Colorado, windy conditions will prevail.  The tight surface pressure
gradient will be accompanied by a 40-50kt h85 low level jet
after07/00Z, so southeasterly surface winds of 25 to 35 mph
sustained will be fairly common from the Permian Basin this
afternoon into the SE NM Plains this evening.  A Wind Advisory will
remain in effect for these areas from 06/21Z to 07/06Z.  Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop over the higher terrain of
west Texas this afternoon, and possibly develop northward into SE
NM this evening on the increasing low level jet. Initially,
strong winds will be the primary threat from this convection due
to a hot, dry subcloud layer, but low level moisture will increase
into this evening a little and could result in a few storms
producing hail, if not brief heavy rainfall.

The persistent southeasterly low level winds will bring more copious
moisture back to the region Saturday, with a dryline sharpening over
the Permian Basin to the Big Bend region Saturday afternoon.
Thunderstorms will be possible along the dryline, some of which
could be severe due to another shortwave trough ejecting into the
region, SBCape rising to near 1000 J/Kg, mid level lapse rates of 9
C/Km and 0 to 6 Km Bulk Shear of 40-50kt.  Naturally, if any
thunderstorms last through tonight, it could sabotage convection
along the dryline Saturday.  For now, will keep chances on the low
side.  Above normal temperatures and afternoon thunderstorms along
the dryline will be possible again Sunday, with more critical fire
weather conditions possible over the Guadalupes and SE NM Plains.
Temperatures will cool a little Monday as a Pacific cold front
pushes through the region in the wake of the ejecting ua low.
However, thunderstorms will likely develop east of the region and it
will still be dry, so more fire weather concerns look likely.
Temperatures will warm back above normal Tuesday and Wednesday with
a dryline attempting to become a player again over the region.  will
wait for a little more agreement in these periods to do anything
definitive.

FIRE WEATHER...

A few locations were near critical levels this afternoon over SE NM
and the Guadalupe Mountains.  Expect winds to increase a little more
and push these, and other, locations to critical levels this
afternoon.  Therefore,  will continue the Red Flag Warning. High-
based thunderstorms are expected to produce dry lightning strikes,
and gusty and erratic winds from southeastern New Mexico south into
the Big Bend.  these concerns will be continue through the
expiration of the RFW at 07/03Z.

Surface winds will become southeast and increase to 20 to 30 mph
later this afternoon in the critical fire weather area, which could
contribute to fire weather concerns through the termination of the
RFW.  Recovery tonight will be fair over most of the forecast area,
and good especially in areas that receive rainfall.

Warm, dry and windy conditions will occur again Saturday over the
Guadalupes and SE NM Plains.  The issuance of a Red Flag Warning in
these areas on Saturday will hinge upon whether they receive any
rainfall overnight, but if they do not, critical fire weather
conditions are looking likely.  Recovery will be poor Saturday night
along and west of the Pecos River, except over the Lower Trans Pecos
into the Big Bend region, with good recovery east.  Temperatures
will remain above normal Sunday with critical fire weather
conditions again possible Sunday afternoon along and west of a
Lamesa to Crane line.  Later shifts will have to refine this area
since thunderstorms along a dryline between now and then may change
it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     60  88  63  86 /  30  20  30  10
Carlsbad                       59  89  56  83 /  20  10  10   0
Dryden                         64  91  69  89 /  10  30  30  20
Fort Stockton                  65  93  62  87 /  20  40  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 55  78  51  71 /  30  10   0   0
Hobbs                          58  86  49  80 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                          51  87  48  80 /  30  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           62  90  64  86 /  20  20  30  10
Odessa                         64  89  63  86 /  20  20  30  10
Wink                           62  94  57  88 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Southern Lea County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for Andrews-Crane-Ector-
     Loving-Midland-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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