Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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834
FXUS64 KMAF 210513
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1213 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Main concern this forecast period are low ceilings, which could
affect all area TAF sites around daybreak until mid-morning on
Sunday. Have included prevailing MVFR ceilings at CNM and FST
beginning at 12Z where confidence is highest, and maintained
TEMPOs elsewhere. By around 15/16Z, ceilings are expected to lift
and become sct/bkn around 4-5kft, with VFR conditions prevailing
thereafter. FST and CNM could see some showers overnight tonight,
with rain/thunderstorm potential returning for CNM during the
afternoon/evening on Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 225 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A cold front is moving south through the northern Permian Basin this
afternoon, preceded by an outflow boundary/prefrontal trough which
is near the Pecos River.  Showers and thunderstorms have been slow
to develop, but with heating this afternoon, and the arrival of the
front, it appears widely scattered showers and storms will be
possible over most of the Permian Basin with better chances over the
higher terrain where upslope flow will increase the next 6 hours.

A fairly strong upper level trough, at least for August, over the
midwest this afternoon will translate eastward.  A period of weak
shortwave ridging over the central ConUS Sunday/Monday will be
followed by dual ua troughs, the more potent will track along the
U.S./Canadian border, the other will translate eastward over the
southwest ConUS and deepen somewhat as it moves over the southern
U.S. Plains Wednesday/Thursday.  This progressive pattern will keep
an upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS, drop a cold front
through the forecast area today, followed by another front next
Thursday, and perhaps another a week from Monday.  Moisture will
remain relatively high over the region due to a steady feed of
mid/upper level moisture streaming around the western periphery of
the ua ridge during this time, and the cold fronts not being strong
enough to abate a steady feed of low level Gulf moisture.

All of the above points to a continuing chance of rain the next
seven days and below normal temperatures, for the most part on both
counts.  The best rain chances will shift to the Upper Trans Pecos
and southwest Texas tonight as the front moves south and upslope
flow increases due to more easterly low level winds.  Most of these
same areas will have low end chance PoPs Sunday with more isolated
convection possible over the rest of the area.  On Monday, rain
chances will rise a little over the Permian Basin as mid level
perturbations impinge upon the area from Mexico around the ua ridge,
and ahead of the next ua trough mentioned above.  PoPs will increase
a bit more Monday night and Tuesday as this same ua trough deepens,
with a few shortwave troughs progged to enhance lift over the area.
Another cold front will drop south in the wake of the trough by
Thursday with more rain chances along and behind it.  Heavy rainfall
and localized flash flooding will be the main threats from showers
and storms for the seven day forecast.  Temperatures will be near
normal Tuesday and Wednesday, but will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal the rest of the days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     85  68  81  70 /  20  20  50  30
Carlsbad                       85  65  86  66 /  40  30  30  30
Dryden                         87  71  81  72 /  40  40  50  20
Fort Stockton                  84  65  83  69 /  30  20  40  20
Guadalupe Pass                 77  59  80  63 /  50  40  40  30
Hobbs                          80  63  82  65 /  10  20  30  20
Marfa                          79  59  81  60 /  40  40  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           84  67  82  69 /  20  20  40  20
Odessa                         84  67  83  70 /  20  20  40  20
Wink                           87  67  86  69 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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