Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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105
FXUS64 KMAF 170535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect falling ceilings overnight with cigs becoming MVFR with some
IFR possible by 12z. Best shower/storm chances today will be at
CNM and HOB... and to a lesser extend INK and PEQ.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the increasing
potential of flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and
portions of west Texas through the end of the week. Rain chances
looking really good for the next several days as TS Odile,
currently moving north into the Desert SW, continues to provide
ample moisture eastward into the region.

Although the remnants of Odile will remain to the west of the CWA, a
series of upper level disturbances will break off and move east
over northern portions of the FA the next couple days. This will
provide enough upper forcing to help generate precipitation across
most areas (particularly the northwest) through at least
Thursday, especially given the available moisture across these
areas. The remnants of Odile is forecast to move NNE through
central NM Friday, continuing rain chances into Friday as well.
Well above normal PW (near 1.7 inches) look to persist across most
locations through Friday and heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern at times. Difficult to discern specific times when the
rain will be heaviest so went ahead and mentioned heavy rain
potential where PoPs are highest tonight-Thurs. May also need to
mention heavy rain possible for Friday as well but will only
mention moderate rainfall for now. Currently think the favored
regions to receive the most rainfall over the next few days is
southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains. Many of
these locations received heavy rainfall last week so any additional
rainfall will increase flash flooding potential. A Flash Flood
Watch will not be issued at this time but may be need to be in the
next 12 to 24 hours for these areas.

With nearly continuous moisture through the week, clouds look to
stick around and keep high temperatures below normal during this
time. On the other hand, the increased moisture and clouds will do
the opposite for lows, holding them above normal for this time of
year. Therefore, expect highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s and
lows in the mid to upper 60s.

The 12Z GFS and Canadian models bring a cold front into the region
Sunday with the ECMWF following suit much later and showing a much
weaker front. Precip is expected to develop across the region as the
front moves through but with the models not in agreement with the
arrival time, not confident when and where to place highest rain
chances. The 12Z Canadian and the previous run of the ECMWF had much
drier air coming in behind the front but the new 12Z run of the
ECMWF has now come more in line with the GFS, holding onto the
moisture and rain chances through the extended. Due to the
inconsistencies, will hold off on making any drastic changes to the
extended at this time and keep silent PoPs in days 7-8.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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