Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Previous Version | Current Version | All | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

FXUS64 KMAF 201736

1136 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

See aviation discussion below.


IFR conditions at KCNM, KHOB, and KMAF should become VFR by 19z
this afternoon. VFR conditions with clear skies are expected at
most Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals this afternoon
through much of tonight. The exception will be KMAF where IFR
conditions in fog and low clouds will redevelop by 06z tonight.
Elswhere TEMPO IFR conditons are expected to redevelop late
tonight at KHOB KINK, and KPEQ in dense fog and low clouds.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

See public discussion below.

will update the public products to expire the dense fog advisory
this morning for the Permian Basin and the southeast New Mexico
plains. Also lowered temperatures a couple of degrees this afternoon
areawide and tweaked sky cover based on latest trends and incoming

Updated products to be sent shortly.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/


See 12z aviation discussion below.


Areas of low ceilings and fog will continue through the morning
hours.  HOB and MAF will be the last to improve with low ceilings
and visibilities possibly past 18z.  There is some uncertainty
whether or not the fog and low ceilings will reach CNM, INK, PEQ,
and FST.  Low ceilings and visibilities are again possible after 00z
with MAF and INK being the most likely terminals to experience these
conditions. Winds will remain light through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/


A chilly surface ridge jutting southwestward into the region is
contributing to low cloud and fog development over eastern portions
of the forecast area this morning.  This as surface temperatures
cool to near current dewpoints, especially along and west of the
western fringe of a low cloud deck.  Hobbs, Andrews and Midland
have been reporting 1/4 statute miles in fog for a couple of hours,
with satellite imagery indicating other locations devoid of
observational data likely experiencing patchy dense fog.  Since low
clouds are not aggressively developing westward, and saturation of
the lower levels of the atmosphere will continue, will issue a Dense
Fog Advisory from Eddy and Lea Counties, southeastward across the
central Permian Basin until 20/17Z.  Some counties which will be
included in the advisory may see only patchy, or transient dense
fog.  Think it is more prudent to include these counties than have
to expand the advisory later.

Broad upper troughiness will prevail over the region today into
Sunday as a couple of innocuous shortwave troughs pass over, or
north of, the forecast area.  There will be little chance of rain
under this regime while temperatures gradually rise to around 15
degrees above normal Monday afternoon.  A more significant ua trough
digging south through the central/southern Rockies Monday will
contribute to this warming as westerly, downslope surface winds
increase over the area Sunday, and even moreso Monday.  High winds
will be possible in the the Guadalupe Mountains Monday as the ua
trough approaches, and Monday night as the ua trough moves over the
region.  For now, will mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

A cold front will crash south through the region Monday night and
Tuesday which will knock temperatures near to slightly below normal.
The resident time of the attendant surface ridge over the region
will be fairly short-lived as northwest flow aloft over the area
Wednesday becomes westerly on Christmas Day and will likely result
in high temperatures in the 60s and 70s for everyone.  The mild
temperatures will come crashing down again the day after Christmas,
or on Saturday if some of the slower models pan out.  One thing
seems fairly certain, there will not be much chance of precipitation
throughout the extended.


ANDREWS TX                 54  37  64  41  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              52  41  65  43  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                57  32  66  39  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  57  43  67  46  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  40  69  46  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  35  56  40  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  32  63  36  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   55  24  62  30  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  38  65  40  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  55  39  64  42  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    60  33  69  37  /   0   0   0   0






Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:

Check us out on the internet at: is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.