Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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978
FXUS64 KMAF 270330
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1030 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...

Forecast updated for the expiration of the Red Flag Warning, the
expiration of the High Wind Warning for the Davis Mountains, and
the cancellation of the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe
Mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Wind speeds have decreased significantly this evening across much of
the area, and given the diminished gusts, have allowed the High
Wind Warning for the higher elevations of the Davis Mountains to
expire. Have also canceled the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe
Mountains, as latest observations indicate gusts of around
35-40KT, below warning criteria. Gusts are expected to continue
to decrease overnight. The decrease in wind speeds as well as
cooling temperatures have also alleviated critical fire weather
conditions, and thus the Red Flag Warning has been allowed to
expire. Other forecast variables look to be on track this evening,
so no other updates to the forecast were warranted. Updated
products will be out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 832 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

UPDATE...

Quick update for the expiration of the Wind Advisory.

DISCUSSION...

Winds have largely dropped below Advisory criteria across the
plains after sunset, with speeds expected to continue to gradually
decrease through the evening hours. Thus, have allowed the Wind
Advisory to expire. Updated products will be out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 524 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Gusty west winds will
decouple after sunset, then pick up again late morning Wednesday,
although not near as strong. A few high clouds will be possible,
and convective temps too warm for a cu field.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

It has turned into a windy, warm afternoon as a dryline continues to
surge east of the region. The base of a large upper trough over CO
is currently brushing the northern half of the area. An area of lift
moving into the TX Panhandle is bringing a few clouds and virga to
the northern Permian Basin. This virga may help strong winds reach
the surface so don`t be surprised to see winds gust to 50 mph or
so under these showers. Strong mid level winds mixing down and
subsidence behind the area of lift is leading to very gusty
conditions across almost the entire region. Will leave the High
Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories as is as winds aren`t likely to
die down until after sunset. Critical fire weather also continues
as rh`s have dropped below 15 percent at most locations. See Fire
Wx discussion below.

The upper trough will only slowly move east across the Central
Plains through midweek. This will keep our area in west-northwest
flow aloft bringing slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday. A cold
front will move south across the Panhandle Wednesday night, but
likely not make it much past Lubbuck. Meanwhile, another upper
trough will dig near the Four Corners Thursday and transition our flow
aloft to the southwest. Thunderstorms will be possible across the
eastern half of the area Thursday evening and overnight along and
east of a retreating dryline. Some of these storms may even be
severe as lapse rates steepen and a strong LLJ kicks in. This
upper trough will slowly lift into the Plains through the end of
the week with dry, windy conditions returning Friday and Saturday.
Expect near normal temperatures late this week into the early part
of the weekend before more changes come our way next week.

Models have been fairly consistent in digging yet another upper
trough to our west over the weekend. This system has the potential
to bring below normal temperatures and even some rain the to region
by the beginning of next week. Stay tuned as changes to the forecast
are likely over the next several days leading into this weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather conditions will continue across southeast New
Mexico and much of West Texas until sunset when winds subside.
Strong lift from an upper level low is causing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms to develop from northern Lea County
northward. Given very low dewpoints in the 20s, cloud bases will be
above 10K feet providing the potential for lightning starts and
gusty and erratic winds so this will have to be closely monitored
the next several hours.

The low causing the winds will move off to the east tonight, however
enough winds will remain over the higher elevations of the Guadalupe
Mountains that critical fire weather conditions are expected once
again on Wednesday where a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Other
areas will see very low relative humidities but lower winds so there
may be an opportunity for prescribed burning. Another upper level
low will move across the area on Friday bringing the potential for
more critical fire weather conditions to southeast New Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  81  54  88 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       49  83  50  88 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         58  91  60  93 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  54  86  55  92 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 47  74  52  79 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          48  79  49  85 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          40  78  40  83 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           53  84  56  91 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         54  84  57  90 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           51  87  53  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through
     Wednesday evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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