Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 231149

549 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2015

12Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for this TAF cycle will be wintry precip
affecting terminals through the morning and low cigs persisting much
of the day. Light radar returns indicating freezing drizzle
affecting all TX terminals except for PEQ early this morning. In
addition, a series of light freezing rain/sleet and/or snow showers
look to intermittently be affecting HOB and CNM. Will continue to
advertise light wintry precip through mid-day. Currently have
IFR cigs across the board with areas of MVFR vsbys. Ceilings may
lift to MVFR at some point early afternoon but confidence is low on
timing so adjustments may be need. Also, could see IFR cigs return
later tonight/early Tuesday morning but will hold off on dropping
cigs for now until confidence increases. Otherwise, NE winds will
continue to diminish and veer to the east through the day.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2015/

Strong upper trough over CA/NV this morning will help produce
another round of wintry precipitation across the area this morning as
southwest flow aloft carries ample moisture over very cold air at
the surface.  A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for most
of the region today with a Winter Storm Warning for portions of the
North and Northeast Permian Basin.  This low will quickly move east
arriving in the area late Tuesday and passing across the region
early Wednesday.  After it passes a broad trough will remain across
the center of the country before flattening off toward the weekend.
The next upper trough works down the West Coast on Saturday.

A strong cold front blew through on Sunday bringing very cold wx to
the region.  Temperatures have fallen steadily since then.  Light
wintry precipitation has developed this morning over much of the area.
Currently radar indicates the heaviest precipitation over the
Northeast Permian Basin which should be a mix of freezing rain and
sleet.  Model qpf freezing rain sleet Meso Eta/GFS still hits NE
Permian Basin hard between 09-12z same as it showed last night...
this is the area with best isentropic lift.  This is the area included
in a Winter Storm Warning.  Radar having some trouble picking up the
light precip and reports indicate light freezing drizzle may be much
more widespread. This precip will continue through the morning...
could see some light snow mixed in mainly across Southeast New
Mexico.  With temperatures in the teens and 20s anything that falls
will quickly stick to all exposed surface.  Bridges and overpasses
will be the first to ice over and expecting difficult driving
conditions this morning.  Will continue the High Wind Warning
in effect for GDP until 6am MST as latest observation was still
over 40 mph.  Precip should taper off during the afternoon.

As far as temperatures it will be a very cold day today with wind
chill factors making it even colder for those having to be outside.
Will stay on the cold side of guidance with highs in the 20s for the
Permian Basin... into the lower 30s for the Trans Pecos... with only
locations closer to the Rio Grande getting above freezing.
Temperatures begin to recover Tuesday as a surface ridge slides east
and south wind begins to return.  Should make it back into the 60s
on Wednesday as wind comes around to the west.  However A secondary
upper trough will move down across the Rockies early Thursday and
push another cold front through the region returning the area to
unusually cold wx.  Highs in the 30s Thursday and Friday as a cold
February winds down.  By next weekend the readings should make it
back into the 60s as roller coaster of temps continue.

Could see a little light rain move down into the SE NM plains late
Tuesday night with the arrival of the upper low.  Otherwise the next
shot of precip will be Thursday through Saturday... could have some
more wintry precip mixed in.


     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MST early this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Dawson...Mitchell...Scurry.




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