Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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560
FXUS64 KMAF 121908
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
208 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor clearly depicts an upper low sw of KELP with a model
initialized 50-60kt 4h jet. Broad mid level lift is evident too as
seen in cyclonically curved cloud shield on IR, along with cooling
cloud tops. Summary model depiction of this is probably best seen
thru NAM/GFS OMEGA fields, which translate lift across the CWFA
between thru 03z. Lift will be within the 3rd standard deviation
positive PW anomalies and SHRA/TSRA should proliferate in this
environment. Between 18Z-19Z there were approx 300 lightning
strikes within 10-100 miles s of Rio Grande. The models attempt to
capture precip shield that moves SW-NE today, with a low level
wind shift from S to W. Heavy rain is a concern too with such high
ambient mstr content, however cells will be moving about 30 mph,
so flooding concerns will remain mostly local but certainly exist!
A few stong/severe storms cannot be ruled out either in this modest
CAPE/low shear environment, downburst winds/hail. Convection will
probably be strongest on leading edge of the reference rain cooled
air and by late in the day/early this evening there could be a few
areas of further enhancement. One could be across the central PB
where the airmass may have greatest SB destabilization and a
second across the Lower Trans Pecos where richest surface mstr
will be. PoPs will mostly wane into the night. There will be an
exception though, SE NM. Around 12Z wrap around precip will
develop in the area from S Plains into E-SE NM. Cold front is now
shown to arrive much earlier Monday and this will tend to renew
precip development for areas n of I-20, where it will be
noticeably cooler. Precip decreases Mon night/early Tue AM, but
there will be lingering showers, followed by cool, but drier
conditions Tue PM. A mid level trof will deepen near the 4-Corners
Wed with high based SHRA/TSRA possible W-NW late Wed PM into the
night. Assocd frontal timing is uncertain due to uncertainty wrt
where upper low will be. GFS brings the upper low across to the n
with drier/cooler low level air Fri-Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 53  64  46  68  /  40  60  60  10
BIG SPRING TX              58  67  50  70  /  50  50  60  20
CARLSBAD NM                57  63  46  71  /  50  70  30  10
DRYDEN TX                  57  81  57  78  /  40  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           53  72  49  72  /  10  10  30  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          45  55  41  66  /  50  50  10  10
HOBBS NM                   50  61  45  67  /  50  70  50  10
MARFA TX                   47  63  40  69  /  10  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    55  68  48  69  /  40  50  50  10
ODESSA TX                  53  67  48  70  /  30  50  50  10
WINK TX                    52  71  49  72  /  20  40  50  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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