Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Next Version | Current Version | All | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On

Skip product version selection by date and time.   
340
FXUS64 KMAF 281056
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
456 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours under clear to partly cloudy
skies. West winds are expected to increase by mid morning to 20
to 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph through sunset. Winds will become
west to southwest by early evening at 10 to 15 mph and continue
overnight. The exception will be KCNM where west winds are
expected tonight at 15 to 25 mph and gusty.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Yesterday the cloud cover did not push east as expected, thus
boundary layer mixing was limited and stronger winds aloft did not
mix to the surface as expected. There will be fewer clouds today,
but there may be enough to again inhibit mixing so have been a
little more conservative with the areal coverage of the Wind
Advisory for today keeping it in the plains adjacent to the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. The amount of clouds will have to
be closely monitored today and if mostly clear skies develop
across the area then the Wind Advisory may need to be extended
farther east.

These winds are being caused by zonal flow along the southern
periphery of a slow moving low over the upper midwest. A shortwave
trough dropping down the backside of the low will push a cold
front into the area tomorrow evening cooling temps a few degrees,
however the main feature to watch will be an upper low developing
to our west by the end of the week. All models show this low
developing over the western U.S. and dropping south into
northwestern Mexico though there are differences in the strength
and movement of the low as it moves east into Texas. The ECMWF is
faster and weaker with the low which would give us less rainfall.
GFS is stronger with the low which would give us more
precipitation, unless the low digs too far south and gets caught
under a Pacific Northwest ridge. For now will continue the strong
chance PoPs for the weekend.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  45  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       62  39  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         71  45  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  64  43  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  35  49  29 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                          59  36  54  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          58  33  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           62  44  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         62  43  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           63  40  61  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 10 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon
     for Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM CST /10 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning to 6 PM CST
     /5 PM MST/ this evening for Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/12

  • National Weather Service
  • Southern Region Headquarters
  • 819 Taylor Street, Room 10A06
  • Fort Worth, TX 76102
  • Page Author: NWS Fort Worth
  • Web Master: SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov
  •  
  • Page last modified: 30-Sep-2016 6:36 PM UTC
USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.