Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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407
FXUS64 KMAF 221712
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1212 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A weak cold front has shifted winds from the northeast and east at
TAF issuance, but winds will veer around from the southeast by
around 00Z and increase overnight. MVFR or IFR CIGs will develop
at most eastern TAF sites including MAF 06Z-12Z and remain
through the remainder of the TAF period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 503 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front continues to push south tonight and should stall out
around the Pecos River by the morning. Main result will be
slightly cooler temps in the upper 80s/low 90s and easterly
surface winds across the Permian Basin. There will also be a
chance for some isolated thunderstorms as the boundary lifts
northward through the late afternoon and evening. A more active
weather pattern begins Thursday affecting most of West Texas and
southeast New Mexico. A potent upper trough will move across the
central and southern Rockies and eventually become a closed low as
it moves east into the plains by Thursday night. A tightening
surface pressure gradient will cause windy conditions across much
of the CWA by Thursday afternoon and evening. The gusty winds may
have the potential to kick up some dust in the process, so will
add in some patchy blowing dust the forecast for the afternoon. A
strong upper jet associated with the passing trough will also
result some high winds across the Guadalupe Mountains and parts of
the adjacent plains through this same time frame. Will issue a
High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains for now. A dryline
will develop and be the focus for some thunderstorm activity. An
area of increased instability and shear will be enough to support
severe thunderstorms as the upper trough approaches and large
scale lift will aid thunderstorm development by late afternoon
Thursday and into the evening. West of the dryline will be very
dry air and gusty winds resulting in fire weather concerns. See
fire weather discussion below for more information.

By Friday afternoon we will be on the backside of the trough
under northwesterly flow aloft and westerly surface winds behind a
Pacific front. Even cooler air will reside over the area and
should bring temperatures back down closer to normal. The dryline
will have pushed east of the area by Friday morning, which will
likely limit any chances of precipitation heading into the
weekend. Fire weather will be a concern again Friday afternoon
with the very dry air and elevated winds continuing across much of
the area. As the aforementioned trough finally lifts out of the
area we should get a break from the winds on Saturday before a
weak trough moves across the central Rockies and will result in
elevated westerly winds again on Sunday.

Another strong trough is expected to impact the area sometime
early to mid next week. Depending on the track and timing, we
could yet again see some elevated winds, fire weather and another
chance for precipitation. Temperatures will look to remain in the
upper 70s and low 80s through mid week.

Fire Weather Discussion...
Models have finally come into agreement on the upper trough
expected thru West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Thu/Fri. Latest
runs put it at the Four Corners by 00Z Fri, and the Texas/OK
panhandles 12 hrs later. Thu afternoon, models mix from 850-825mb
east to 575-550mb west, w/the GFS slightly deeper than the NAM.
this SW-W flow will shunt the low-lvl thermal ridge more into the
central CWA, along w/accompanying critical RH up against a
sharpening dryline. Cloud cover is still the variable in question
Thu afternoon, but looks to be much less than yesterday. Latest
wind/RH fields suggest that the Presidio Valley and Loving County
can be added to the watch. Pecos County looks to have critical
winds Thu afternoon, but most of the county will be on the ern
side of the dryline, whereas Brewster will have the critical RH,
but not the 20` winds. Consequently, forecast RFTI for these
counties is low, and we`ll keep them out of the watch attm.

Friday looks to be another critical fire wx day as subsidence on
the backside of the trough continues mixing strong winds to the
sfc. Forecast mixing isn`t quite as deep as Thursday, but a
critical fire wx day is still in order, mainly west of the Pecos.
The lowest RH/best winds look to be in the Big Bend Area. With a
watch already out for Thu, to avoid sowing a confusing product,
we`ll not issue any products fro Friday attm, but continue
emphasizing the hazard in the HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  61  82  52 /  10  10  10  40
Carlsbad                       90  57  90  48 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         88  62  84  55 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  93  62  87  52 /   0  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 84  58  77  42 /   0  10  10   0
Hobbs                          85  57  84  46 /   0  10  20  30
Marfa                          88  49  85  42 /   0  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           90  62  83  53 /   0  10  10  40
Odessa                         90  62  83  51 /   0  10  10  40
Wink                           92  60  88  49 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/10

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